Late Night DiRT

Listen, and understand.  Change is out there.  It can’t be bargained with.  It can’t be reasoned with.  It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear, and it absolutely will not stop, ever…Change, has come, so we say goodbye to an era.  Goodbye to a man.  Goodbye.  Tonight the cowboy rides off into his sunset, never to be seen again.  The game has changed.  One generation grew up with Johnny, another with Dave, and the current one seems more interested in YouTube clips and celebrity pandering.

I haven’t always stayed up too watch Dave – the albatross made it more difficult as time flew by – DVR made it singular – but it was always a comfort to know that if/when I did – Dave was there.  I’m not a smoker, but every now and then a cigar is extremely satisfying, and that, to me, embodies the Late Show with David Letterman.

His reluctance towards celebrity-ism and the abhorrent genuflection of an industry was reflected in those of us that watched.  The set pieces, the Top 10 lists, stupid pet/human tricks, dropping stuff off of buildings, crazy street interviews/pranks with Rupert – all now American cultural lexicons, given to us as a savvy, self-contained, adult – just like his idol Carson.  Maybe Leno beat him regularly in the ratings, but that wasn’t the point – It’s Ham and Eggsdays work for the Chicken, a lifetime commitment for the Pig – Leno induced you to sleep.  Dave committed you to watch.

For Dave, the public drama, all those years ago, still stings the nostrils, but like Frank, he did it his way.  If the best revenge is living well, then there’s a certain redemption being played out, contra to those late night wars.  We won’t see Dave try to undermine Stephen Colbert and gradually sneak back into the spotlight.  In fact, we won’t see him at all.  That’s because Letterman’s way of doing things has taught us to expect the unexpected, and in this instance we know what the man will do.  He will leave tonight, gracefully like an adult, like Johnny Carson – as expected.  Thanks Dave!

In other news – it seems the other owners told Bob Kraft to shut up and sit down.  No more Bad-NFL headlines and thankfully, we will not have to hear anymore of this nonsense, except of course, from Brady.  Is that the point?  Was this self-serving crisis a ruse to get to the real issue – the 4 game suspension?  I bet Hizzoner and the rest of the owners told Bob to quiet down and we will give your Golden Boy a sentence-reduction to one game – after-all Hizzoner is overseeing the appeal and it will be another chance for Roger to happily-fall on the company sword.

Averting our attention so they could focus on the real issue(s), like the extra point.  It has now been declared that the customary one-point, after a touchdown, will now occur from the 15yd line – making it a 32yd field goal – or teams can go for two from the two.  Kickers have always been treated as non-essentials; in the locker-room, on TV, and now the NFL just made it worse – won’t anyone think of the kicker.  I never remember wanting more drama from a kicker, it’s bad enough how many times they seem to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  It will be interesting to see how team philosophies will change going forward – for me this seems to be directed towards the Tim Tebow show and what Chip Kelly plans to do.  So play on league of valor, let our champions riot in the circus to entertain us – we will be fine, as long as we have our bread!

We have learned several things about these Warriors over the last few weeks and we thought they learned a valuable lesson against Memphis.  It seems they still needed reminding.  The Warriors were lucky last night – no Dwight Howard and being down 16 in the first half, only to squeak out a 4pt victory.  Of course, Bogut  not scoring and only grabbing 4 rebounds, won’t continue – and at some point someone is going to make a free throw.

Losing the first game on the road isn’t a big deal if you’re Houston, but possibly losing Howard could be.  Plus, Golden State will do better than 7-24 on open three point shots and if that’s what Houston has planned – wide open 3’s – this series won’t last long at all.  If you’re like me, you enjoyed the contrast of styles of the MVP and the runner-up – it’s what I wanted to see, Ali v Frazier.

The NBA Lottery – always exhibit A, in the great conspiracy debate.  “But Logan, the winner was Minnesota and the worst team hasn’t gotten the 1st pick since 2004, so wouldn’t it be fixed if New York or L.A. won the lottery?”  Wrong.  Now before I reach for my tin-foil hat – stay with me.

In the last three years prior – the Pelicans, Cavaliers and Cavaliers have gotten the number 1 pick – the odds of that happening are .4% – seriously .4%.  As long as the cloak-and-dagger cabal exists behind the scenes, the league will never avoid this charge.  Open it up, put it all on camera – show us.  Yeah but how does Minnesota prove it’s fixed?   Because the NBA always gives the top pick to the most obvious team and yes, Minnesota is obvious.  For the Pelicans/Hornets the league no longer owned the team but was committed to them staying in New Orleans – so Anthony Davis.  Then the NBA wanted to reward Cleveland for losing Lebron and to show that teams win titles not players and maybe create a rivalry with the Heat for ratings – so Anthony Bennett.  But he was terrible, so they had a do over – Andrew Wiggins.

But Leborn came back and they traded Wiggins for Love.  Exactly!  So the reason it was clear that Minnesota got the number pick is this:  The NBA wants a greater presence in Canada, (#BlameCanada).  Sure they have Toronto but that team chokes like a fat-kid on cake.  The Clippers will move to Seattle, (near Vancouver who lost a team to Memphis and Steve Ballmer’s $2b buys a lot of juice) and Milwaukee will move to Montreal if a new arena deal falls thru.  Don’t believe the Montreal rumor?  Then why was Adam Silver there to lay the groundwork beyond exhibition games recently?

So in the meantime, the NBA gives the #1 pick to the T-Wolves who already have the rookie of the year in Andrew Wiggins.  From?……Canada!  So the T-Wolves, already with some young talent, get a talented big man like Jahlil Okafor – BOOM goes the dynamite! Check-Mate! That just happened!

 

Greatest DiRT – Top 10

In honor of the 100th post – we decided to look back and re-post our 10 most read.  But before we get to that – How do the Clippers allow the Rockets to win the series and why all the confetti Houston?  It was a second round series – you’ve been there before, act like it.  Is this youth soccer and everyone gets a trophy, with a side of orange slices?  Our Republic could be caught in a vortex of dumb that we may never pull out of – at least we get the fight we wanted to see – Ali v Frazier=Curry v Harden – right?


Sediment-al 12-16-4

Sediment-al 1. Satchmo the Great called it The game was billed, the Pope v President, Jazz v Blues, The Ditka Bowl, etc…and the men of the BigEasy held onto their hopes for the glorious tournament, too serve Beignets+Gumbeaux to weary travelers in the 1st round.  Aside from marching up and down Soldier Field, the real…Read more

Clear as Mud 1-27-15

A spiraling helix that rockets downward at godless velocity is called a Vortex.  One that helixes straight up is a Tornado.  They may appear different, but to philosophers of Physics and Quantum Mechanics, they are both the same thing. Both will kill you instantaneously.  The contrast between being inhaled by a bottomless sinkhole and getting…Read more

Rub some DiRT on it! 1-7-15

Getting DiRTy Congratulations to the newest inductees of Major League Baseball’s HOF, ((as diagnosed by the patronizing Baseball Writers of America (BBWA – isn’t baseball just one word – thus making it BWA – Ballers with Attitude)), Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio.  A worthy class and the largest inducted since 1955…Read more

DiRTy Gras 2-17-15

Fear and Loathing at Carnival… When the going get weird the weird turn pro, as Raoul Duke famously said, and I am a 7-time gold medalist on this caravan.  Still awake and doing my damndest to earn another shot at the medal-stand; I have yet to sleep from properly marking Lundi Gras with a Red…Read more

1931From the DiRT…2-9-15

A Lion never roars after a kill… The American Dream is a national ethos, it is a set of ideals that include the pursuit of happiness, life and liberty.  It is said that life should be better, richer and fuller for everyone with the opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social…Read more

Clear as Mud 3-11-15

The Past is a statement, the Future a question.  Hopes rise and dreams flicker and die.  Love plans for tomorrow and the widowed think of yesterday.  Life is beautiful and living is hardship.  The sound of music flows down a dark street.  Like a tornado ripping thru your home and granting passage to a whole new world…Read more

3rd Stone from the Sun 3-27-15

Justice, is supposed to be blind.  It seems like it has been a awhile since we have seen the scales tip as they should.  Life’s virtuous dance is a comedy of errors, frequently performed with you walking home one night; and a young derelict asks you for a smoke – you don’t, so you apologize…Read more

Diamonds in the DiRT 4-2-15

It was April 2nd, 1996 and a peppy kid dreamed to be exactly where he was now – except no one really dreams of being in Cleveland.  The city by the lake isn’t the kind of place where dreams come true in sports – hell, nothing good in Cleveland has occurred in the form of championship…Read more

3rd Stone from the Sun 4-3-15

There are many hard lessons to be learned from the “degenerate” experience, but the harshest one of them all is the difference between having Fun and being Smart.  It is the difference between Winning and Losing, on most days, and on Saturday the Final Four will be a lesson for fun-loving Losers.  It does not…Read more

Soil’d Principles 5-13-15

Let’s do the time-warp again… A good craftsmen never blames his tools and a league should never blame theirs.  Much as a violin can not play a concerto by itself, a ball cannot do anything but sit there until the laws of physics apply to an object at rest. So the NFL, in the midst…Read more

DiRTy DiMEs Tuesday

March 24th, 2015

To go directly to our daily NBA breakdown DiRTy Plays, just click here.

Today, I wanted to take some time and provide you all with a breakdown of the last five games as it pertains to each position for your Daily NBA Fantasy games.  Each day I look to provide you with Absolute Must Haves, Notables and Sleepers.  Within each of these categories I will look to provide you with players that you should consider taking in each night’s games, who will out perform their projection and how injuries will impact other players performance for that night.  FD_Last5_overallIn addition to this daily insight, I am going to provide you a weekly breakdown of players by position as it pertains to both Fan Duel and DraftKings.  So let’s take a look at the Overall Performances over the last 5 games for Fan Duel.  The overall, number one, player was Anthony Davis.  He comes in slightly higher than Westbrook but it should be noted that Davis did not play in all 5 games as such his average is based on last 3 games.  The notable players that I want to highlight for you are Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe.  Both of these players have been playing great, Bledsoe, primarily due to Knight being out.  Look for that production to decline slightly.  As for Lopez, I do not expect a decline in production.  Since acquiring Thad Young it has had a major impact in terms of where Lopez is able to play on the court.  DK_last5_OverallHe has been able to plug the middle and post-up down low, where he is highly productive. Moving onto DraftKingsthere really isn’t much change in the information. A slight modification in the ranking of the players but the same 10 exist.  If #KingJames will play the full game, he will go over 50+ fantasy points each night.  The problem is that the Cavs are playing mostly Eastern Conference teams down the stretch and they simply dominate these folks.  That means that for your spend James isn’t logging enough minutes to continue to pay those high salary prices.  Look for our Notables to compliment your lineup in these considerations.  It should be noted that I am in the process of defining a salary limit per player.  This key performance metric will identify the maximum spend per player. This will allow for you to quickly identify players that are too expensive regardless of output.  The simple example here is Westbrook.  He currently costs over $13,000 on both gaming sites.  That means that he is approximately 22% of your spend.  We know that in order to cash you must hit 330 on Fan Duel and 300 on DraftKings.  That means that in order for Westbrook to be of value for that spend he would need to produce a 72.6 on Fan Duel and a 66 on DraftKings.  Those are high numbers to get to and while he certainly has the capability of that, this means you have to find two or three other players that are going to fall in our Notable or Sleeper segments in order to fill your lineup.  Why not take another Must Have that is only 15% of your spend and now you can get two high-end Notables.

Point Guard Breakdown

FD_last5_pg

Clearly, Westbrook, leads this category but I just wanted to point out to you that Chris Paul has been averaging almost 50+ fantasy points.  Two other folks that have been creeping up the list here are Elfrid Payton and Reggie Jackson.  Both of these guys have been teetering on the triple-double mayhem and if Westbrook wasn’t averaging that over his last 10 games, these guys would be highlighted on ESPN more often.  DK_last5_pgAnother guy to consider would be Goran Dragic.  He has been averaging 36.1 fantasy points per game and with the Heat battling for position into the playoffs, look for that to continue.  A disappointing player, Steph Curry, has not played well.  He tops our list of over priced players and should not be considered on daily lineups until his salary declines below $9,000.  Another young player in Kyrie Irving, is right there with Curry for most over priced player at this position.  Sure they might each go off and put up 50 for you but more often than not they will put around 30 fantasy points and you could have had more production from guys like Jeremy Lin and George Hill. Don’t take the risk on these guys until further notice.

Shooting Guard Breakdown

James Harden certainly leads this list and should be considered the best SG in the game right now. He will most likely win the MVP, unless folks turn to Curry.  I say without Howard, the Rockets haven’t skipped a beat and that is why he is my MVP right now.  JJ Redick, Randy Foye and Avery Bradley come in at the bottom of this top 10 list but are players you should consider each night simply due to the fact that they don’t cost too much.  DK_last5_sgIf you can fill your lineup with guys that all fall in our Notable segment, you will have the most consistency in terms of production.  If two or three of these guys go off and put up 50+ to compliment the 30+ you will get from everyone else, this is how you cash every day in daily NBA fantasy games.  So many players try to shoot the moon and go for first place.  That would be great if it happened but the math says to put your money on consistency and you will prosper.  Some fun facts to consider when playing NBA fantasy.  You only need to cash in 33 out of 100 games when playing a $3 entry in order to break even.  If you win 40 games out of 100, you will profit $60. FD_last5_sgWith our insight and daily breakdown this should be of no concern.  In fact most of our subscribers are cashing over 70% of the time.  We play the games too and provide you with a weekly update of our progress. D-Wade has been very productive of late and even earned the Eastern Conference Player of the Week last week. Unfortunately, this will turn him into an over priced player based on the salary algorithms of both Fan Duel and DraftKings very soon.  If he hoovers around $8,000 then you are safe.  Anything above that and you should consider guys like Danny Green or DeMar DeRozan.

Small Forward Breakdown

Yes, of course, #KingJames is going to top this list but did you know that Gallinari has actually been one of the most consistent players since Marvin Hunt took over for Brian Shaw.  He was moved into the starting lineup at that time and since then the Nuggets look like the team we expected to have in Denver from the beginning of the season.  FD_Last5_sfGuess all it took was putting a guy in place that listened to his players and encourages a style of play conducive to the talent of the team.  Shaw, I really have nothing against you but I must say, you need to learn how to communicate with guys in their 20’s or you won’t have a head coaching job in the NBA.  It doesn’t matter who you played with or who you coached under, what matters is winning.  Look at D’Antony, he is probably going to be the guy here in Denver and why is that?  It is because he likes to play up and down and doesn’t care about defense. DK_last5_sfYes, I know that this will never win a championship but that isn’t what Denver is all about anyway. So next time you get the job, listen to the local media and your team, you will last a bit longer.  The only other notable player to consider from this list is Kawhi Leonard.  In fact, if you were to play him and James on nights where they are both playing, those lineups will cash 42.6% of the time. That is note worthy considering I already told you that at 40% you are profitable by a fairly high margin. Add some other key guys from other positions and now you have a shot at finishing high. The Spurs need to keep winning games in the West so they are going to have to play their key guys.  This means Leonard.

Power Forward Breakdown

I already told you that Anthony Davis has been the most productive fantasy player of late and so it is no surprise he tops this list.  Look at second place, Aldridge, almost 19 points less per game.  DK_last5_pfThat is also the largest gap across all positions.  This position also happens to be the most productive on both DraftKings and Fan Duel.  My suggestion is to spend your money on the big guys and find the Sleepers and Notables for your SG and PG positions.  They are much easier to locate and have a much higher rate of out performing their projection. There are three notable players on this list that for now are still not cap casualties and should be considered each night.  They are Kenneth Faried, Marcus Morris and Nikola Mirotic.  Let’s face facts, the closer in Chicago is Mirotic.  Did you know that he leads the NBA in points scored in the 4th quarter over the last 10 games.  Neither did I until I researched it last night.  Pretty amazing considering some of the MVP caliber performances of late.  That just means on your daily NBA fantasy lineup, don’t sweat it if he only has 15 points going into the second half or even the 4th quarter because here comes the boom.  FD_last5_pfHe will get close to 40 fantasy points per night.  Faried and Marcus Morris have seen significant increases in time on the floor and as we already pointed out the Nuggets are just moving around a lot more.  This means high rebound and high point production for Faried. He cannot play on a half-court offensive team but the run and gun he loves.  As for Morris and yes, I said Marcus NOT Markief, has been lights out.  He has put up at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last 7 games and since moving to the starting SF position he has been their best player. Unfortunately, Knight is expected back soon and so it is uncertain what this will mean to his playing time and role with the team.

Center Breakdown

Our last but certainly not least category for the day is our Center position.  This is the second highest producing position of your Fan Duel lineup.  FD_Last5_CentersThe guard position is that for DraftKings.  That all comes down to the fact that turnovers are not as heavily weighted and you earn extra points for making threes.  If you can find the big guy who busts threes and rebounds well, he is your marquee guy.  Brook Lopez has been a guy who is climbing the ladder and quickly.  This means take him while you can because just like Gobert, who only 3 weeks ago, cost under $5,500 has now increased to $8,000 per night, so too will Lopez.  Keep in mind that you don’t want to go too cheap here and so other notable players on this list are Enes Kanter and Jo Noah. If you follow us at all, we have been on the Gobert train for quite some time now and he looks great if you watch any of his games.  DK_last5_CentersHe is the flying frenchman that makes the Jazz very difficult to score against and thus the reason they are leading the NBA in defensive points allowed since the All-Star break. That said, Kanter was traded to OKC at the deadline and has been averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds per game. This marks one of the only trades I have followed where both teams have made out like bandits.  It was great for both players to get out from underneath one another and get into styles of play that allow for them to shine.  Enjoy the show for the last couple of weeks as both of these guys will most likely be sitting at home watching the playoffs this year.  That just means look out next year!

Player Analysis and Lineup Projections are in just click here to get your daily NBA info to win and win big like we have continued to do.  We came 25th out of 100583 last night on a $2 contest.

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Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

Sediment-al

Mozgov-cocktail

what a 7-foot pump fake on the block looks like

Are the Cavaliers really this desperate? Here is the trade details between Denver and Cleveland:

2 pix going to Denver, one is from Memphis (acquired in 2013) and the other recently acquired from OKC.  However, there are protections on the OKC pick- a top 18 in 2015, top 15 for 2016 and 2017, and then converts to two second round picks after that.  The protections on the Memphis pick are 1-5 and 15-30 in 2015 and 2016, then top 5 in 2017 and 2018, and unprotected in 2019.

That all seems like calculus and aint no body got time for that.  On the surface it seems like a brilliant deal for Denver – you get 2 new-potential-hot-girlfriends for velvet sweatsuit.  The reality looks more like this: Cleveland gets some needed depth in the front-court, a decent big man that is averaging 8.5pts, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 blocks in 35 starts so far.  Maybe since he played for coach Dave Blatt before, Kyrie Irving will have someone else to listen too besides Kevin Love, to pass the damn ball.  For the Nuggets, you can bet they’ll use those picks to draft two boxes of rox, so the trade ends up being a wash in the end.


 

Before lasts night game against Utah, CU had not beaten a team in the top 10 since 1973. The streak continued as Utah red-headed the Buffs 74-49.


 

Josh Smith is let go and the Pistons peel-off 7 straight, like skin from a sunburn, even beating the Spurs at home. Funny stat, he still leads the Pistons in Field-goal attempts.


 

click to watch the newly elected doing the top 10

 


Worst PSA ever…

click the to watch – this is your warning, it is messed up

 


Tomorrow I’ll post about the upcoming playoffs and potential FanDuel lineups, as well as working on the National Championship game.  In the meantime here is something stupid to look at.