March 24th, 2015
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Today, I wanted to take some time and provide you all with a breakdown of the last five games as it pertains to each position for your Daily NBA Fantasy games. Each day I look to provide you with Absolute Must Haves, Notables and Sleepers. Within each of these categories I will look to provide you with players that you should consider taking in each night’s games, who will out perform their projection and how injuries will impact other players performance for that night. In addition to this daily insight, I am going to provide you a weekly breakdown of players by position as it pertains to both Fan Duel and DraftKings. So let’s take a look at the Overall Performances over the last 5 games for Fan Duel. The overall, number one, player was Anthony Davis. He comes in slightly higher than Westbrook but it should be noted that Davis did not play in all 5 games as such his average is based on last 3 games. The notable players that I want to highlight for you are Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe. Both of these players have been playing great, Bledsoe, primarily due to Knight being out. Look for that production to decline slightly. As for Lopez, I do not expect a decline in production. Since acquiring Thad Young it has had a major impact in terms of where Lopez is able to play on the court. He has been able to plug the middle and post-up down low, where he is highly productive. Moving onto DraftKings, there really isn’t much change in the information. A slight modification in the ranking of the players but the same 10 exist. If #KingJames will play the full game, he will go over 50+ fantasy points each night. The problem is that the Cavs are playing mostly Eastern Conference teams down the stretch and they simply dominate these folks. That means that for your spend James isn’t logging enough minutes to continue to pay those high salary prices. Look for our Notables to compliment your lineup in these considerations. It should be noted that I am in the process of defining a salary limit per player. This key performance metric will identify the maximum spend per player. This will allow for you to quickly identify players that are too expensive regardless of output. The simple example here is Westbrook. He currently costs over $13,000 on both gaming sites. That means that he is approximately 22% of your spend. We know that in order to cash you must hit 330 on Fan Duel and 300 on DraftKings. That means that in order for Westbrook to be of value for that spend he would need to produce a 72.6 on Fan Duel and a 66 on DraftKings. Those are high numbers to get to and while he certainly has the capability of that, this means you have to find two or three other players that are going to fall in our Notable or Sleeper segments in order to fill your lineup. Why not take another Must Have that is only 15% of your spend and now you can get two high-end Notables.
Point Guard Breakdown
Clearly, Westbrook, leads this category but I just wanted to point out to you that Chris Paul has been averaging almost 50+ fantasy points. Two other folks that have been creeping up the list here are Elfrid Payton and Reggie Jackson. Both of these guys have been teetering on the triple-double mayhem and if Westbrook wasn’t averaging that over his last 10 games, these guys would be highlighted on ESPN more often. Another guy to consider would be Goran Dragic. He has been averaging 36.1 fantasy points per game and with the Heat battling for position into the playoffs, look for that to continue. A disappointing player, Steph Curry, has not played well. He tops our list of over priced players and should not be considered on daily lineups until his salary declines below $9,000. Another young player in Kyrie Irving, is right there with Curry for most over priced player at this position. Sure they might each go off and put up 50 for you but more often than not they will put around 30 fantasy points and you could have had more production from guys like Jeremy Lin and George Hill. Don’t take the risk on these guys until further notice.
Shooting Guard Breakdown
James Harden certainly leads this list and should be considered the best SG in the game right now. He will most likely win the MVP, unless folks turn to Curry. I say without Howard, the Rockets haven’t skipped a beat and that is why he is my MVP right now. JJ Redick, Randy Foye and Avery Bradley come in at the bottom of this top 10 list but are players you should consider each night simply due to the fact that they don’t cost too much. If you can fill your lineup with guys that all fall in our Notable segment, you will have the most consistency in terms of production. If two or three of these guys go off and put up 50+ to compliment the 30+ you will get from everyone else, this is how you cash every day in daily NBA fantasy games. So many players try to shoot the moon and go for first place. That would be great if it happened but the math says to put your money on consistency and you will prosper. Some fun facts to consider when playing NBA fantasy. You only need to cash in 33 out of 100 games when playing a $3 entry in order to break even. If you win 40 games out of 100, you will profit $60. With our insight and daily breakdown this should be of no concern. In fact most of our subscribers are cashing over 70% of the time. We play the games too and provide you with a weekly update of our progress. D-Wade has been very productive of late and even earned the Eastern Conference Player of the Week last week. Unfortunately, this will turn him into an over priced player based on the salary algorithms of both Fan Duel and DraftKings very soon. If he hoovers around $8,000 then you are safe. Anything above that and you should consider guys like Danny Green or DeMar DeRozan.
Small Forward Breakdown
Yes, of course, #KingJames is going to top this list but did you know that Gallinari has actually been one of the most consistent players since Marvin Hunt took over for Brian Shaw. He was moved into the starting lineup at that time and since then the Nuggets look like the team we expected to have in Denver from the beginning of the season. Guess all it took was putting a guy in place that listened to his players and encourages a style of play conducive to the talent of the team. Shaw, I really have nothing against you but I must say, you need to learn how to communicate with guys in their 20’s or you won’t have a head coaching job in the NBA. It doesn’t matter who you played with or who you coached under, what matters is winning. Look at D’Antony, he is probably going to be the guy here in Denver and why is that? It is because he likes to play up and down and doesn’t care about defense. Yes, I know that this will never win a championship but that isn’t what Denver is all about anyway. So next time you get the job, listen to the local media and your team, you will last a bit longer. The only other notable player to consider from this list is Kawhi Leonard. In fact, if you were to play him and James on nights where they are both playing, those lineups will cash 42.6% of the time. That is note worthy considering I already told you that at 40% you are profitable by a fairly high margin. Add some other key guys from other positions and now you have a shot at finishing high. The Spurs need to keep winning games in the West so they are going to have to play their key guys. This means Leonard.
Power Forward Breakdown
I already told you that Anthony Davis has been the most productive fantasy player of late and so it is no surprise he tops this list. Look at second place, Aldridge, almost 19 points less per game. That is also the largest gap across all positions. This position also happens to be the most productive on both DraftKings and Fan Duel. My suggestion is to spend your money on the big guys and find the Sleepers and Notables for your SG and PG positions. They are much easier to locate and have a much higher rate of out performing their projection. There are three notable players on this list that for now are still not cap casualties and should be considered each night. They are Kenneth Faried, Marcus Morris and Nikola Mirotic. Let’s face facts, the closer in Chicago is Mirotic. Did you know that he leads the NBA in points scored in the 4th quarter over the last 10 games. Neither did I until I researched it last night. Pretty amazing considering some of the MVP caliber performances of late. That just means on your daily NBA fantasy lineup, don’t sweat it if he only has 15 points going into the second half or even the 4th quarter because here comes the boom. He will get close to 40 fantasy points per night. Faried and Marcus Morris have seen significant increases in time on the floor and as we already pointed out the Nuggets are just moving around a lot more. This means high rebound and high point production for Faried. He cannot play on a half-court offensive team but the run and gun he loves. As for Morris and yes, I said Marcus NOT Markief, has been lights out. He has put up at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last 7 games and since moving to the starting SF position he has been their best player. Unfortunately, Knight is expected back soon and so it is uncertain what this will mean to his playing time and role with the team.
Our last but certainly not least category for the day is our Center position. This is the second highest producing position of your Fan Duel lineup. The guard position is that for DraftKings. That all comes down to the fact that turnovers are not as heavily weighted and you earn extra points for making threes. If you can find the big guy who busts threes and rebounds well, he is your marquee guy. Brook Lopez has been a guy who is climbing the ladder and quickly. This means take him while you can because just like Gobert, who only 3 weeks ago, cost under $5,500 has now increased to $8,000 per night, so too will Lopez. Keep in mind that you don’t want to go too cheap here and so other notable players on this list are Enes Kanter and Jo Noah. If you follow us at all, we have been on the Gobert train for quite some time now and he looks great if you watch any of his games. He is the flying frenchman that makes the Jazz very difficult to score against and thus the reason they are leading the NBA in defensive points allowed since the All-Star break. That said, Kanter was traded to OKC at the deadline and has been averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds per game. This marks one of the only trades I have followed where both teams have made out like bandits. It was great for both players to get out from underneath one another and get into styles of play that allow for them to shine. Enjoy the show for the last couple of weeks as both of these guys will most likely be sitting at home watching the playoffs this year. That just means look out next year!
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