DiRTy Plays Friday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel-DraftKings Projections

February 26, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.


DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

FD_Basketball_Image

Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in excel click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Rajon Rondo has an 11% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • DeAndre Jordan has a 60% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • Paul George is projected to hit 2.83 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report in pdf, click here.

To download a full copy of this report in excel, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • There is not a single player averaging over 50 fantasy points during their last 5 games that are playing tonight! That is the first time this season that has happened since everyone has logged at least 5 games.
  • Nikola Vucevic is a on a back to back so his salary remains at $7,700 and is averaging 44.2 fantasy points per game over his last 5.
  • Jordan Clarkson is only $5,900 on DraftKings tonight and has been averaging 37.95 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games.

To download a copy of this report in excel, click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 24.54% of your projected team point total with an average of  2.99 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 21.38% of your projected team total with an average of 2.06 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 16.85% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.86 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 20.27% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.12 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 16.96% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.21 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, PF, C, F, Util with a projected score of 269 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 23.3% of your projected team total with an average of 74.9 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.92% of your projected team total with an average of 70.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 15.75% of your projected team total with an average of 50.6 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 21.02% of your projected team total with an average of 67.6 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.29% of your projected team total with an average of 49.1 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, C, SF  and the number for tonight is projected to be 313.0 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11 a.m. EST

  • Pau Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol (illness) is considered questionable for Friday’s game against the Hawks, KC Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reports.
  • Derrick Rose: UPDATE: Rose (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Friday’s game against the Hawks, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reports.
  • Deron Williams: UPDATE: Williams said he plans on playing through his dislocated left ring finger in Friday’s game against the Nuggets, Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News reports.
  • Arron Affalo: UPDATE: Interim coach Kurt Rambis said Afflalo was suffering from a bruised thigh in Wednesday’s 108-105 loss to the Pacers, but the shooting guard isn’t expected to miss Friday’s game against the Magic.

Don’t forget to use the Lineup Analyzer™ to get our custom recommendations, just click here. Check back at 6 p.m. EST to get our full analysis and insights from our top experts via our DiRTy Plays 5 pt Play! All of your FanDuel projections and DraftKings projections each and every day!


DiRTy Plays Thursday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel & DraftKings Projections

February 25, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.


DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

FD_Basketball_Image

Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in excel click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Draymond Green has a 19% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • Russell Westbrook has a 53% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • Steph Curry is projected to hit 4.77 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report in pdf, click here.

To download a full copy of this report in excel, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • James Harden, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are our top 50 club for tonight.
  • Damian Lillard is the only player averaging over 50 fantasy points during their last 5 games that is under $10,000 tonight on DraftKings.
  • Jabri Parker is only $6,200 tonight on DraftKings while averaging 35.45 fantasy points over his last 5 games.

To download a copy of this report in excel, click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 24.42% of your projected team point total with an average of  2.96 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 22.07% of your projected team total with an average of 2.33 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 16.57% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.82 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 20.28% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.12 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 16.66% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.17 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, PF, C, SF, F, Util with a projected score of 289 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 22.65% of your projected team total with an average of 72.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 22.21% of your projected team total with an average of 70.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 16.52% of your projected team total with an average of 52.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 23.46% of your projected team total with an average of 74.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 15.16% of your projected team total with an average of 46.4 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PF, PG, SG, SF, C  and the number for tonight is projected to be 315.9 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 2:30 p.m. EST are as follows:

  • Victor Oladipo: UPDATE: Oladipo is dealing with a thigh bruise and is considered questionable to play Thursday against Toronto, John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports.
  • Marcus Smart: UPDATE: Smart had his right thumb heavily wrapped at practiced Wednseday due to a sprain, Scott Souza of the Providence Journal reports
  • John Henson: UPDATE: Henson (back) is listed as out for Thursday’s game against the Celtics, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

Don’t forget to use the Lineup Analyzer™ to get our custom recommendations, just click here. Check back at 6 p.m. EST to get our full analysis and insights from our top experts via our DiRTy Plays 5 pt Play! All of your FanDuel projections and DraftKings projections each and every day!


DiRTy Plays Wed #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel & DraftKings Projections

February 24, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.


DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

FD_Basketball_Image

Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in excel click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Draymond Green has a 20% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • Andre Drummond has an 84% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • Steph Curry is projected to hit 4.75 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report in pdf, click here.

To download a full copy of this report in excel, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Steph Curry are the only players playing tonight that are averaging over 50 fantasy points during their last 5 games.
  • Russell Westbrook’s opponent is giving up 76..05 fantasy points per game and with Westbrook averaging 75% of the minutes, he should get at least 57 fantasy points tonight.
  • Jordan Clarkson is only $5,600 on DraftKings and is averaging 33.6 fantasy points over his last 5 games.

To download a copy of this report in excel, click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 24.14% of your projected team point total with an average of  2.91 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 20.37% of your projected team total with an average of 2.43 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 20.29% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.38 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 18.33% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.82 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 16.88% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.15 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util with a projected score of 288 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 23.56% of your projected team total with an average of 76.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.31% of your projected team total with an average of 69.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 18.63% of your projected team total with an average of 60.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 20.05% of your projected team total with an average of 65.0 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.45% of your projected team total with an average of 50.6 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, SF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 321.7 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Pau Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol (illness) has been upgraded to probable for Wednesday’s game against the Wizards, Bulls radio play-by-play announcer Chuck Swirsky reports.
  • Kawhi Leonard: UPDATE: Leonard (calf) took part in a limited practice Tuesday and remains questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Kings, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
  • Stanley Johnson: UPDATE: Johnson was diagnosed with a right shoulder sprain Wednesday and will be reevaluated in a week, Dave Pemberton of the Oakland Press reports. He is out, look for Marcus Morris to see extended minutes.

Don’t forget to use the Lineup Analyzer™ to get our custom recommendations, just click here. Check back at 6 p.m. EST to get our full analysis and insights from our top experts via our DiRTy Plays 5 pt Play! All of your FanDuel projections and DraftKings projections each and every day!


DiRTy Plays Tuesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel & DraftKings Projections

February 23, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

FD_Basketball_Image

Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.

To get an excel version of both projections, click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Rajon Rondo has an 11% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • DeMarcus Cousins has an 56% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • James Harden is projected to hit 2.86 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • James Harden, Damian Lillard and Rajon Rondo are our only players averaging over 50 fantasy points over their last 5 games, that are playing tonight.
  • Anthony Davis might be the hottest player in the league right now, having gone for over 140 fantasy points over his last 2 games.
  • Jalil Okafor is just under 40 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games and is only $6,400 tonight on DraftKings.
  • Moe Harkless is averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games and is only $4,400 on DraftKings tonight.

Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 24.43% of your projected team point total with an average of  2.86 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 21.73% of your projected team total with an average of 2.44 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 16.30% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.37 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 21.33% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.31 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 16.21% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.24 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, PF, SF, F , C, Util with a projected score of 282 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 24.16% of your projected team total with an average of 81.3 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 20.48% of your projected team total with an average of 64.7 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 14.76% of your projected team total with an average of 46.6 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 23.27% of your projected team total with an average of 78.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 17.33% of your projected team total with an average of 44.7 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, PF, SG, C, SF and the number for tonight is projected to be 316.1 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • DeMarcus Cousins: UPDATE: Cousins battled a sore tailbone at Saturday’s practice but should be fine, ABC 10’s Sean Cunningham reports.
  • Rajon Rondo: UPDATE: Rondo (toe) is considered probable for Tuesday’s game against the Nuggets.
  • Terrance Jones: UPDATE: Jones (concussion) went through practice Sunday, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle reports.

Don’t forget to use the Lineup Analyzer™ to get our custom recommendations, just click here. Check back at 6 p.m. EST to get our full analysis and insights from our top experts via our DiRTy Plays 5 pt Play! All of your FanDuel projections and DraftKings projections each and every day!


DiRTy Plays #NBA Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 22, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

The Lineup Analzyer is in full affect now, just click here to check it out! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Jordan Clarkson is our top value play with a value on DraftKings of -1.14 and for FanDuel, Cory Jospeh has a value of -1.14.
  • Shooting Guard – Kyle Korver leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +1.84 and on DraftKings a -0.31. He is a strong consideration for value tonight.
  • Small Forward – P.J. Tucker is our leader with a -.95 on FanDuel value and, Giannis Antetokounmpo is -3.25 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Gorgui Dieng is our top value for FanDuel at -1.92 and, Patrick Patterson on DraftKings is at -4.61.
  • Center – Jordan Hill leads this category with a -2.61 value on FanDuel and Jared Sullinger is -2.65 on DraftKings; Sullinger is a strong play with Oliynk out for the next 3-4 weeks, he will see extended time on the floor with a nice matchup tonight.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Ricky Rubio is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 32.2 on FanDuel and Jordan Clarkson with a 30.66 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – Khris Middleton leads this category at 40.50 projection on DraftKings and a value of -2.7 where on FanDuel his projection is 37.41 and a -2.49.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 36.69 and on DraftKings, he has a projection of 39.35 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Gorgui Dieng is our top value PF for Fanduel tonight with a projection of 30.62.   Julius Randle is projected at 31.13 for DraftKings.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan is the top center for tonight in Fanduel with a projection of 36.66.  Jared Sullinger in DraftKings with a projection of 31.55.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is our top PG for tonight with a projection of 44.28.
  • Shooting Guard – Khris Middleton is the top SG for tonight with a projection of 37.41.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 40.11.
  • Power Forward – Draymond Green is our top PF for tonight with a projection of 33.57.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan is our top projected center for tonight with a projection of 36.66.

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  • Point Guard – Steph Curry has a top projection of 48.41 tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – Khris Middleton is our top SG for tonight at 40.50.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.02.
  • Power Forward – Draymond Green is the top projected PF tonight at 36.96.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 39.10 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential lineup stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Golden State vs. Atlanta (225.5 projected pts)
  2. Boston vs. Minnesota (217 projected pts)
  3. Phoenix vs. LA Clippers (212 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden St Warriors (116 projected pts)
  2. LA Clippers (114 projected pts)
  3. Boston Celtics (111 projected pts)
  4. Sacramento Kings (110.5 projected pts)
  5. Atlanta Hawks (109 projected pts)
  6. Cleveland Cavs (108 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_To download the top 3 stacks for FanDuel tonight, just click the link below:

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

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NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

draftkingsTo download the top 3 stacks for DraftKings tonight, just click the link below:

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryChris Paul: UPDATE: Paul left Saturday’s loss to Golden State with a thigh injury but is expected to be OK, reports.
  • Kyrie Irving: UPDATE: Irving is dealing with an illness and will not return to Sunday’s game against the Thunder, Joe Gabriele of Cavs.com reports. If he doesn’t go, look for Delledova to get the start.
  • Dwayne Wade: UPDATE: Wade (knee) is listed as a game-time decision for Monday’s tilt with the Pacers, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.
  • Chris Bosh: UPDATE: Bosh (calf) will not play in Monday’s game against the Pacers, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports. With him sidelined again, look for Deng to play high minutes.
  • George Hill: UPDATE: Hill is listed as questionable for Monday’s game against the Heat with a right elbow sprain, the team announced.
  • Andrew Bogut: UPDATE: Bogut (Achilles) is listed as questionable for Monday’s game against the Hawks, Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • Tyson Chandler: UPDATE: Chandler (shoulder) is considered doubtful for Monday’s game against the Clippers, Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic reports.
  • Jared Bayless: UPDATE: Bayless (knee) has been ruled out for Monday’s game against the Lakers, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
  • John Henson: UPDATE: Henson (back) is listed as out for Monday’s game against the Lakers, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is LeBron James for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Andrew Wiggins for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight as his mid range salary makes him a strong consideration in all formats.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Zach LaVine on DraftKings with Tristan Thompson leading this category for FanDuel.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LAFor DraftKings tonight, we have some interesting matchups but when looking at overall performance the games to really take advantage of are going to be the Bucks against the Lakers and then the Boston and T-Wolves game. In this lineup we have 7 of our 8 roster spots coming from these two games as the key players for each team matchup well with what the opposing defenses end up giving up. Thomas leads this group as our top chalk play and he is coming off a 49 point performance against Denver on Sunday. Next we have Middleton and Antetokoumnpo, who both have been playing lights out but are relatively unknown, even in the fantasy community which means they should have low ownership. This will be key given the fact that there is a 100k 1st place top prize in the $3, Sharpshooter contest tonight. Next we have Julius Randle at PF and Jared Sullinger at Center. Both players have been consistently hitting that 30 point marker and both should see plenty of playing time tonight. We finish this lineup with Kyle Korver, Marcus Morris and Ricky Rubio. All three should combine for approximately 110 fantasy points tonight and with the bonuses that DraftKings has in their scoring system, these are all strong plays for either 3 point makes or in Rubio’s case, a double-double.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LAFor our top FanDuel lineup, we are not only looking at the top projection but also looking for the trend of the team and in doing so we have identified a lineup that has been averaging over 300 points over their last 5 games. This is key as you look to build your lineup as you want to ensure that not only is their a high enough projection for tonight but what has this team been doing. In this particular lineup we also have a top score for this lineup of 445 points. That always needs to be at least 400, otherwise, your likelihood of hitting a bit amount in a main contest is pretty unlikely. In breaking down this lineup, we have two Heat players of Deng and Dragic as both have been playing well and with Bosh definitely out tonight and Wade listed as questionable, these two are must plays even though their projections might not be as high as you would like. Next we have Jordan Clarkson, who has been lights out of late and will continue to do so as long as he plays 30+ minutes per game. At the SG, we have Wiggins and Middleton tonight as Middleton should lead all SG’s tonight. Alongside Deng, we are going to roll with Antetokounmpo as he has torched the Lakers in every game he has played against them, including a 50 point fantasy night. At the PF, we have Tristan Thompson, who is starting at Center for the Cavs and since that move has almost averaged a double-double and his PF companion is Gorgui Dieng. Dieng still has too much value to be ignored and he will get at least 30 fantasy points tonight. At Center, we are rolling with The DiRT Canon top projected center of DeAndre Jordan but you will have enough cap for any center that you would like with this lineup so if you want to go with Towns, you will have the room to afford him as well.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

Teaching You How to #Win – Championship Sunday Lineups and Weather

Weather

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In both contests, it is expected to be around 40° and clear as such, it is not expected that either game will be affected by any weather. That said, in Denver, it is supposed to snow later in the evening and if you know Colorado, then you know that the weather can turn at any moment. If it does snow, that is a huge advantage for Brady. Aside from that, enjoy the games today and be sure to check back tomorrow as we will be releasing some of our NBA content beginning tomorrow. For more information just come here.

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here are my top 3 lineups on Draftkings:

Experts Picks

 

DK_lineups

On DraftKings, we have several key factors to consider in making your final NFL selections of the season but by far and away it’s all about the matchups. CJ Anderson has owned the Patriots and the Pats are giving up the most rushing yards per game of the teams left while the Broncos want to run the ball.  Edelman and Gronk have gone for at least 20 points against Denver in each of their last 3 games against them. Last you have Stewart, while Arizona is a tough defense and a great run stuffer, face it, J-Stew, went over a hundred yards on the Seahawks last week, who hadn’t given up a 100 yard rusher on the road in over 2 years. Now to take all of these guys you have to have a #Sleeper and for today, we are going to roll with Cory Brown as the extreme sleeper. While he might not pay huge dividends if he gets 10 fantasy points, your other players are going to ensure success for today. It should be noted that we do have one TE stack of Gronk and Olsen, which might be the best play for today!

 FanDuel lineups for the week below:

Logan Cartwright’s Expert Picks

FD_Lineups

 

On FanDuel, we have a bit of a different story in that we are hedging at QB with a slight split for Gronk and Olsen, based on the QB for that lineup. As you can see it’s the Patriots defense across the board and that is really just because the Broncos offense hasn’t been very good with Manning this season and it is projected to be high scoring in Carolina. So we take the value pick here that has the best matchup in terms of which team has given up the most fantasy points to the opposing defense this season.

Don’t forget to come back tomorrow as we release our initial NBA offerings with many more updates coming over the next several weeks! Want me to review your lineup for today, just tweet me @TheDiRTCanon and I will give you my thoughts.

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Teaching You How to #Win – NFL Conference Championship Fantasy Breakdown

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NE_TeamStats
As we look to breakdown the first matchup of the Conference championships, we start with the New England Patriots. As you can see our DiRT Canon projections have the Patriots favored in every team category with the exception being in rushing yards. Given the past of the Patriots, they might not even run the ball 10 times in this game and just let Brady do his thing in the short to intermediate passing game. This means that Edelman and Gronkowski would have huge games. In fact, let’s take a look at the player breakdown for the Patriots next.NE_PlayerStats

While Brady might only be 2 – 6 in Denver over his career, from a fantasy perspective, his numbers have been more than adequate in the previous few seasons. Having a Patriots stack this weekend is a strong play but also an expensive play with each player being towards the top in terms of salary cost relative to their position. The exception as pretty obvious is going to be James White. Don’t look for much production here unless he breaks a couple of long ones but rather expect Gronkowski and Edelman to get at least 25 combined targets in this game. Now let’s transition over to the Denver Broncos. DEN_TeamStatsThe Broncos have the opposite affect and really that shouldn’t be unexpected when only considering statistical information. Simply put, Peyton Manning had an awful statistical season and therefore the team wouldn’t have high projections of output when considering the immediate history. That’s why I wanted to give you a full breakdown and include a bit more for you this weekend. As we look at the team stats, the Broncos are expected to score the least amount of points of the 4 remaining teams according to both Vegas as well as DC*3PO. The main exception is in the run game for Denver with the Broncos projected to out perform the Patriots in that category this weekend. Aside from that, at the team level, statistically speaking the check marks go to the Pats.

DEN_PlayerStatsAs we look to breakdown the Denver players for this game, there are two strong considerations in CJ Anderson and Emmanuel Sanders. Some interesting facts about the rest of the key fantasy contributors are that Manning only averaged 7.1 fantasy points per game at home this season. Ronnie Hillman is only slightly below Anderson with a 19.1 average over the last 2 games against the Patriots. Last we have Thomas…..oh Thomas….can he even catch the ball anymore? That doesn’t mean he won’t get his opportunities but a fun fact in researching his stats for the year, the key metric that leads me away from him this weekend is the fact that New England held him to 4.6 fantasy points in their game earlier in the season and that was the only game in which Thomas didn’t reach at least double digits. Instead it has been Sanders in the passing game and for the price and value, he is the stronger play this weekend.

Overall, I have the Patriots winning fairly easily 31 – 20 and with the Broncos projected to score the least amount of points and produce the least amount of yards, the Patriots defense is in play for me this weekend.


 

ARI_TeamStatsIn our NFC Championship game, we have what is expected to be a higher scoring contest. It doesn’t mean closer as Vegas has both of these games at only a 3 point difference and in this case the home team has the edge. The Panthers come in only having lost 1 game all season and while they ended the game last week having given up 24 unanswered points, they still won by 7 because of the absolute demolition in scoring 31 first half points against the vaunted Seattle defense. The reality of that game is that Carolina played to not lose in the 2nd half knowing it would take a small miracle for the Seahawks to come back and so why take unnecessary risks. I agree with that strategy in the long run but we wouldn’t even consider the Cardinals in this matchup if they had continued to destroy Seattle.

ARI_PlayerStatsSo let’s breakdown the visiting team stats again with the Cardinals and how they stack up against the Panthers. All signs lead to a close one with kickers having a role. The projected Vegas outcome of this game is Carolina 25.25 to Arizona 22.25 as the over/under is set at 47.5 according to FiveDimes. DC*3PO isn’t all that much different with the same projected outcome, Panthers win but by an estimated 4.4 points instead of 3 like Vegas. From a fantasy perspective it should be noted that our DiRT Canon projections show that the Cardinals will throw for the most yards this Sunday but won’t rush the ball with much success. As we move into the player analysis for the Cardinals, this means that Palmer is a strong consideration for top QB of the week and really he should be. All season long, he has been in the top 3 in QBR, TD passes and total passing yards. He continued that last week with everyone in the ESPN community stating how terrible and awful he was but from a fantasy perspective, he put more fantasy points than Brady when the game was all said and done. All he did was go over 300 yards passing again and threw 3 TD’s with the last one in OT to bring the Cardinals home with a victory. Beyond Palmer however, there isn’t much else to look at when considering the previous matchup points. Not a single player is averaging more than 7 fantasy points against the Panthers but that is only a one game sample with these teams not playing each other very often. In looking at their away stats, you would lead with Fitzgerald then Brown and finish with Floyd. So if you are taking Brown to score more than Floyd, this is the week to make that selection as the deep ball is very much in play and that is John Brown all day as they say.

CAR_TeamStatsNow let’s get to expected winning team, the Carolina Panthers. From a team projection standpoint it is pretty much a 50/50 split, the Panthers will be able to run the ball and the Cardinals will throw it. What that really means is that if the Panthers can control clock, like they have done all season, run the ball with the effectiveness that they have had all season, they might run out to a big lead again and then have the Cardinals make a late run at them. It is very unlikely that you would get to see them put up 31 points in 22 minutes like last weekend but could it get to 20 – 3 or around there by half time, that is definitely in play here.

CAR_PlayerStatsFrom a fantasy player perspective, there really hasn’t been very many Panthers all season to hang your hat on outside of Cam. While he is the top projected QB at DiRT Canon, he should be considered for all of his play making ability. Just don’t be surprised if he throws for a couple hundred yards, runs for 40 yards and gets a TD. That won’t have him as the top QB this weekend but that might be enough to win the game itself. I have him as the #3 QB behind Palmer and Brady but the numbers are certainly in his favor. Some other key considerations for the Panthers would be Stewart, who looked amazing against a Seattle defense that absolutely stuffed Adrian Peterson the week before, and then Greg Olsen. Olsen has not had very much success against Arizona in the past but he is the most consistent guy in the Panther passing game. Something of note in researching the past is also that Ted Ginn has only 1 game against Arizona and had a -1 point performance in that contest but at home this year has averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game.

All in all, I am actually going to go with the Cardinals in this one to upset the Panthers and we will have both #2 seeds making it to the Super Bowl. There isn’t anything that definitively points in either direction but I like the overall team of Arizona, they have a lot more play makers on offense and if they can keep the rushing attack somewhat under control, I think Palmer hits a late TD and they win 30 – 27. Don’t forget to check back on Sunday as we will reveal our final NFL experts fantasy picks for the season as we look to have our first version of NBA ready for you next week!

Get your full FanDuel reports for this week here.

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Teaching You How to #Win – Saturday Divisional Wildcard Lineups and Weather

Weather

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So far so good on weather. In New England we have clear with 39° with little wind so this game shouldn’t be affected in any way from the weather conditions. Tonight, it’s dome city so all goo there. Tomorrow looks like around 40° and clear all the way around. Again no need to change any considerations based on weather this weekend. To get the up to date weather info just come here.

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top 3 lineups for week both All Games & Saturday Only on Draftkings:

Experts Picks

For All Games (Bottom) here are the top 3 lineups:

DK_Lineups

For  Saturday only here is the top projected lineup: 

DK_SatOnly

 FanDuel lineups for the week below:

Logan Cartwright’s Expert Picks

FD_Lineups

As we kickoff this weekend some players to strongly consider this weekend would be Gronkowski and Edelman. Look for their short to intermediate passing game to be on point and Brady will throw 3 TD’s in the first game as the Patriots will stomp on the Chiefs and end that long winning streak. In the Arizona game, look for a somewhat high scoring affair, specifically considering the games last weekend but Arizona will end up winning this game 28 – 20. You can take any of the Cardinal WR’s as they should all be productive but DC*3PO shows Michael Floyd with the slight advantage. On the Green Bay side, you have to to strongly consider Cobb as he will lead the team in plays designed for him, either in the backfield or in the passing game. Starks is another sneaky sleeper play with he and Lacy splitting time in the backfield, this game will come down to the passing attack of Green Bay and that means Starks will get more action this time around. David Johnson is a chalk play and we anticipate having as high as 45% ownership for him this weekend. On defense, my rankings are as follows in terms of expected fantasy point production:

  • Arizona
  • New England
  • Denver
  • Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City
  • Seattle
  • Carolina
  • Green Bay

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Teaching You How to #Win – NFL Divisional Sunday Fantasy Breakdown

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Divisional_SundayOn Sunday this weekend, we get the defending NFC champs to take on the 15 – 1 Panthers this weekend. Carolina comes in playing some of the best ball of the season, the lone exception was an unexpected loss to Atlanta in week 16. Aside from that game, Cam Newton has been by far the best QB for daily fantasy over the past 5 games and Wilson is right behind him. If you take out the Minnesota game, he was over 23 points in 6 straight games. The last game of the weekend is the Broncos against the Steelers. Ordinarily this would be a great matchup and their first go around was very competitive with a story of two halves but with Antonio Brown officially out this weekend and Big Ben unlikely to play, this could be a beat down for the Broncos as they look to move onto the AFC Championship.


Seattle @ Carolina

Carolina StadiumThis game opened with Carolina being a 2.5 point favorite and now has been bet down all the way to a pickem’ game. That usually would indicate that you should take Carolina in the game. They are at home where they didn’t lose all season and they did beat Seattle back in week 6. The Seahawks have really turned it around since that game and that is why these two will put it down this weekend. From a fantasy perspective, these teams have probably filled your daily fantasy lineups down the stretch but against each other this is a difficult matchup. Both teams are known for their defense while their offensive games have played a huge role in getting each of these teams to the divisional round this season. Cam Newton will be the MVP of the league this year and Wilson would be in that category if he had played as well as he has the last 11 weeks during the first few games of the season going for 25 TD’s and 2 Int’s over that stretch. It should be noted that DC*3PO has this game as a blowout with Seattle accomplishing nothing on offense and only putting up 9 points while Carolina goes for their home average of 27 points. Personally, I like Seattle outright in this game but low scoring with Seattle scoring late to win 16 – 13. Now checkout the player analysis we have completed for you.

Seattle Notable Player Breakdown

  • Russell Wilson – Has only averaged 19.9 fantasy points on the road this season and put up 18.94 in their last game against the Panthers. His hot streak however, quite different, he has put up at least 21 fantasy points in 5 of 6 and the one he didn’t was last week in the freezing cold up in Minnesota.
  • Marshawn Lynch – He is expected to go this weekend but do you really know what you are going to get. We all expect a big performance but he is an older back, coming off abdominal surgery and the Carolina rush defense was 6th overall this season. He did average 14.5 fantasy points on the road prior to his injury, I’m saying to stay away this weekend.
  • Doug Baldwin – He averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game on the road but only scored 5.3 against the Panthers earlier this season. His hot streak, over his last 5 games he has averaged 21.26 fantasy points, including a huge dud against the Rams in week 16. He has had at least 20 fantasy points in 6 of his last 8 games.
  • Tyler Lockett – His road average was 11.8 points and DNP against Carolina early in the season. He has been at 13 over his last 5 but that includes a 31 point performance 5 weeks ago and since then he has been under 6 fantasy points in 3 straight games.
  • Seattle Defense – On the road they averaged 11.2 fantasy points and put up 7.0 points against Carolina last time around. They have been under that road average over their last 5 games, coming in at 9.2 during that span but never scored more than 15 all season.

Carolina Notable Player Breakdown

  • Cam Newton – Has averaged 27.5 fantasy points per game at home, this is the highest in the league this season. He did manage 21.76 against the Seahawks last time around and has been at 31.9 points over his last 5 games. In fact, Newton has only gone under 20 fantasy points 2 times since week 7.
  • Jonathon Stewart – He averaged 12.4 fantasy points at home and did put up 21.6 against Seattle back in week 6. He has also increased his workload prior to his injury, over his last 5 games he averaged 16.48 fantasy points. His hot streak status is that he has had at least 10 fantasy points in every game since week 9.
  • Ted Ginn Jr. – Prior to his injury he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game at home but only managed 2.8 points against the Seattle secondary in their last meeting. Ginn was one of the hottest, still cheap value plays prior to his injury, going for over 25 fantasy points in 3 straight games.
  • Greg Olsen – The most consistent player for the Panthers until week 16 this season, he averaged 15.2 points per game at home and had his 2nd best performance 29.1 fantasy points but only 12.72 in his last 5. His in on a cold streak and this is believed to be directly related to his injury against the Falcons and has only gone over 10 one time over the last 4 games.
  • Carolina Defense – Averaged 10.8 fantasy points at home but only 4.0 against Seattle last time around. Their last 5 game average has been 8.6 points but they only went over 10 fantasy points 6 times all season.

fanduelOverall, what this really means is taking Cam Newton should be a solid chalk play but due to price, having Palmer is better play on DraftKings but on FanDuel, taking Newton make a ton of sense. Beyond that it really comes down to Doug Baldwin and Greg Olsen. Both should have solid days but neither will go for more than 22 fantasy points this weekend. That said, those numbers were good enough to win and this might be able to get it done with that level of points as well.


Pittsburgh @ Denver

Denver StadiumThis game is going to turn out to be the worst game of the weekend and that is simply because of all of the injuries to the Steelers. 5 weeks ago, they might have been the favorite to take down the AFC with the Broncos QB situation, Bengals QB situation and all of the other injuries to the Patriots but now when it is time to play, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out with Big Ben listed as questionable. This will be the first time that a playoff team will play a game without their leading runner and wide receiver in the history of the NFL. Big Ben will most likely be a GTD as it will come down to the medication he is able to inject in his shoulder and how much pain he will have to tolerate. The good news for Broncos fans is that if Big Ben does play, you know he won’t be able to throw it more than 20 yards down field so the Denver defense is in play. Now for the player stats:

Pittsburgh Notable Players Breakdown

  • Ben Roethlisberger – If he plays here are some stats to consider, he only averaged 16.4 points per game on the road, this is 9.3 points less than his home average. He did produce 27.9 against Denver in their last meeting but has only averaged 17.44 over his last 5 games.
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint – He did produce 15.88 points last week and did get 4 catches. If Big Ben can’t go then Toussaint is a very strong play simply because of what he represents in the check down game.
  • Martavis Bryant – With Brown out you would think that he would be the guy but what that really means is that he will be covered by one of the top 5 corners in the game today. He has only averaged 11.2 fantasy points on the road this season and only 10.4 over his last 5 games. Look for him to be a boom or more likely bust play this weekend.
  • Markus Wheaton – Now here is the guy that will reap the benefits of not having Brown in the lineup. He has produced 11.7 fantasy points per game on the road and did manage 18.2 against Denver last time around. Look for most of the targets to come his way in the short passing game as that is what Big Ben will have to manage, assuming he plays.
  • Pittsburgh Defense – They managed 8.4 fantasy points on the road but only 6.0 points against Denver last time around when Brock torched them in the first half. That said, they have managed to average 15.5 fantasy points over their last two games and with Manning playing in colder weather, the chance of turnovers is a very high likelihood.

Denver Notable Players Breakdown

  • Peyton Manning – Talk about terrible stats, only 6.4 fantasy points per game at home this season and 2.56 in the 2nd half against the Chargers in his last game. Prior to that he put up a negative 3 spot against the Chiefs so stat wise, you have no reason to take Manning based on his performance this season. However, the Steelers secondardy finished 31st against the WR position in terms of fantasy points per game and Sanders with Thomas are a dynamic duo that could produce well for Manning this Sunday.
  • CJ Anderson – He finished the season with a 14.5 fantasy points per game at home this year, this is 8.5 points better than on the road but only produced 3.0 points last time around.
  • Ronnie Hillman – Just like Anderson, Hillman also outperformed his road performance this season by over 8.5 points per game, finishing with a home average of 14.7 fantasy points per game. He too only put up 3.8 fantasy points against the Steelers last time around but has gone for 34.9 in his last 2 games.
  • Emmanuel Sanders – He averaged only 10.3 fantasy points at home which was -12.0 fantasy points per game compared to his road average but that is because he put up a season high 39.5 fantasy points against the Steelers last time around. He has also averaged 13.9 over his last 3 since coming back from injury.
  • Demaryius Thomas – Plain and simple, he is the most consistent player for Denver from a fantasy perspective, averaging 16.9 points at home and only went under 11 points 1 time all season. He did put up a nice effort with 23.1 points against the Steelers last time around.
  • Denver Defense – This was the play each and every week for the first 5 weeks of the season but their ability to score on defense has since declined dramatically. In fact they have gone over 10 points only once since week 6 and only averaged 7.4 fantasy points at home this season. That all being said, considering the injuries of the Steelers, this is probably the most likely play at defense this week.

DC*3PO has this game as a blowout with Denver winning 29.95 – 16.8. That is a pretty likely outcome considering the information that we have just gone through and yardage wise, a huge difference in favor of Denver as well. The chalk plays in this one would really only be Thomas and so value plays are going to be Wheaton and Sanders with CJ Anderson and the Denver Defense being strong Sleeper considerations.

Don’t forget to check back tomorrow before you set your lineups for this weekend as we will reveal our expert’s lineups for this weekend!

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Teaching You How to #Win – NFL Divisional Saturday Fantasy Breakdown

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Divisional_SaturdayThis weekend, we kickoff the divisional round of the NFL playoffs which means you only have this weekend and next weekend left in daily fantasy for the NFL season. The good news is that this week, there are actual offenses playing and so we should actually get some scoring this upcoming weekend. We kickoff the weekend in New England, where the Patriots are expected to be close to full strength and then the Saturday night game features the top projected scoring contest of the weekend, according Vegas. I suspect that there won’t be as many penalties in that game compared to last Saturday but this should be just as exciting so let’s breakdown these matchups for your daily fantasy lineups!


Kansas City @ New England

New England StadiumThe Patriots come into this contest having lost 2 of their past three, including their last game against Miami which cost them home field throughout the playoffs. This was very surprising as Miami’s defense put a strangle hold on the Patriots offense, holding down everyone including the worst performance of the season from Brady. In fact Brady limped away from this game with an injured ankle but that is all in the past and now we are onto the playoffs. This is where the Patriots have thrived and Brady is 9 – 2 in the divisional round in his career. In come the Chiefs, riding an 11 game winning streak and utterly destroying the Texans last weekend on the road 30 – 0. The projected outcome this week from Vegas is New England 23.5 Chiefs 18.5 as the Chiefs are a -5 dog on the road. The over/under in this matchup is 42 points so let’s breakdown this game for both sides.

New England Notable Players Breakdown

  • Tom Brady – Avg. 26.1 fantasy points at home but only 18.38 over his last 5, including 5.3 in week 17, his lowest performance of the season. In fact Brady has gone for 18.6 or less in each of his last 4 contests.
  • Rob Gronkowski – Avg. 19.6 fantasy points at home and only 14.46 in his last 5 games which also included a lacking 3.8 in week 17. With all of the weapons hurt at the end of the season except Gronk, the opposing defenses have covered him with 2 or 3 guys and dared the nobodies of New England to beat them and they couldn’t. One thing to note is that Gronk did go over 20 points 6 times this season which is 35.3% of the time.
  • Julian Edelman – Averaged 18.2 fantasy points at home prior to his injury. The trend here to consider is that while KC was ranked 26th against the WR position in week 9, they finished at 20th by the end of the season and really shut down Hopkins last week. With the foot injury he is coming back from, he will most likely be low owned but is a risk considering we haven’t seem him play since week 10.
  • James White – Avg. 12.0 fantasy points at home this season but 17.72 over his last 5 contests. He lead the backfield in the passing game, catching 28 balls over the last 5 games but his salary this Sunday is the highest it has been of the season, making him no longer a huge value play.
  • New England Defense – They only averaged 8.3 points at home this season but 9.2 over their last 5 contests. That said, they only eclipsed 10 fantasy points or more 5 times in the entire season. They won’t give up much yardage in this game nor should they allow very many points so they should be considered, the issue here will be creating turnovers.

Kansas City Notable Players Breakdown

  • Alex Smith – Averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game on the road this season and only 15.24 over his last 5 games. In fact, he only went over 20 fantasy points 5x all season and hasn’t hit that mark since week 13.
  • Jeremy Maclin – He is hurt and will most likely not play in this game but if he does, he did average 15.8 fantasy points on the road this season and the last time he was under 10 fantasy points it was week 11 and the next week he had his best game producing 34 fantasy points. That said, don’t take him, too risky this week.
  • Travis Kelce – He might be the only Chief that has any offensive production, just like last week as he is the only Chief to have a significant uptick in fantasy points per game on the road this season at 14.8 fantasy points per game. The thing to consider here is the fact that the Patriots are known for taking away the #1 options and that is clearly Kelce for the Chiefs.
  • Kansas City Defense – This has been the reason the Chiefs are still around this season and that is due to their performance on the defensive side of the ball. They are averaging 12.9 fantasy points on the road this season and 17.6 over their last 5 games. Fact, they only went under 10 points 2 time all season. If they take a look at the Dolphin tape, they could shut down the Patriots and this could be a closer game than expected.

fanduelOverall, what does all this mean for this matchup. DC*3PO has this game as a blowout with the Patriots winning 27 – 12 and that is pretty likely considering the offense of the Chiefs and most of the weapons returning for New England. On FanDuel this means Santos as your Kicker, unless you can afford Gostkowski in which case he should always be your option. Aside from that look for the Chiefs to punt often and the Patriots to hit a couple of big plays. One sneaky play here would be Albert Wilson for the Chiefs. If Maclin is a no go, look for a lot of targets to come his way and so he might be a cheap option for value this week. Chalk play here is Gronkowski and really you should stay away from everyone else. The Chiefs backfield is completely up in the air with Ware having an ankle injury and West’s production on the decline, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Knile Davis have a role in this game but no Chief back will go over 10 fantasy points.


Green Bay @ Arizona

Arizona StadiumThis Saturday night, we get to see the grudge match between the Packers and the Cardinals. In the last contest, it was all about the Arizona defense as they lead the daily fantasy world in week 16, producing 33 fantasy points. The sacked Rodgers 9 times in that game and had 2 return TD’s. Rodgers played well last week and came out with a “W” in Washington but this Cardinals team is no joke. They are a high powered offense with a play makers all over the field. They can also score on defense. Does this mean they will slaughter the Pack again this Saturday night….NO….but will they win this game, YES! Just don’t expect this to be a blowout with this game coming down to the 4th quarter and the Cardinals holding a late lead to move onto the Championship game. Now let’s breakdown all of the notable players for each team from a daily fantasy perspective.

Green Bay Notable Players Breakdown

  • Aaron Rodgers – He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game on the road this season but only 10.94 against the Cards in their last matchup. He did put up an 18.3 in his last game but has only gone over 20 points 3 times since week 3. Don’t take him!
  • Eddie Lacy – He produced 9.4 fantasy points on the road this season but was one of the only bright spots against the Cardinals in week 16, producing 15.8 fantasy points in that game. Something of note here is that Lacy has cracked the 10 point barrier in every other contest, dating back to week 11 and he did get over 10 last week against Washington. He is also dealing with an injury that limited him in practice yesterday.
  • James Starks – He was one of our value plays last week and he produced well for us as one of the leading backs of the weekend. Against the Cardinals he only put up .1 points which brought his road average down to 7.9 this season. If Lacy doesn’t go, you should play Starks.
  • Randall Cobb – While getting 10 plays at RB last week, Cobb has been a consistent player this season. He averaged 12.0 fantasy points on the road this season but was only a 4.7 against the Cards last time around. In fact that was the only game over his last 10 where he didn’t get at least 10 fantasy points.
  • James Jones – He is the only Green Bay player to play better on the road this season. He played well against Washington last week, cracking 100 yards and averaged 13.6 fantasy points on the road this season. He did get 11.6 against the Cardinals last time around and that was his lowest output over his last 4 games.
  • Richard Rodgers – The only thing you need to know here is that he has only been over 6 points 1 time in his last 6 games which is when the head coach took over play calling duties. Stay away from him….you know who I’m talking to!
  • Green Bay Defense – Another glaring stat for them is the fact that they only produced more than 10 fantasy points 2 times since week 5. The Cardinals are going to score and score often.

Arizona Notable Players Breakdown

  • Carson Palmer – While playing well at home, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game, he hasn’t scored over 20 since week 14 and only put up 17.6 against the Pack in their last game. That was largely due to the fact that it was a blowout early in that game and the Pack have given up at least 20 fantasy points to the opposing QB in 5 straight games.
  • David Johnson – This guy is electric and has been on a tear since taking over the starting RB job in Arizona. Since that time he has averaged 23.16 fantasy points and had 12 TD’s this season.
  • John Brown – He was 2nd on the team in home average at 13.5 fantasy points per game and went over 10 fantasy points in all but 3 contests this season.
  • Larry Fitzgerald – While leading the Cardinals in home average at the WR position at 16.4 fantasy points per game, he only averaged 12.1 over his last 5 games and only 12.9 against the Packers in their last matchup.
  • Michael Floyd – He was huge against the Packers last time around producing 20.1 fantasy points and 2 TD’s in that game compared to his 11.1 average at home this season. Something to note is that he has the highest average at 15.86 over the last 5 games for the Cardinals.
  • Arizona Defense – We already noted that they put up an amazing 33 fantasy points against the Packers last time around but having a -3.0 against the Seahawks in week 17 brought their season average down. If you take that game out the Cardinals averaged 12.8 fantasy points at home this season and have gone over double digits in 3 of the last 4.

With Vegas expected this one to be higher scoring as the over/under is at 50 points as of today, the Cardinals are a 7.5 home favorite. DC*3PO has this game projected to be an upset with Green Bay winning this game outright 25 to 24. Still taking the under in this one and I agree that Green Bay will cover but I think the Cardinals pull it out late. Some team stats to consider would be that the Cardinals are expected to out gain the Packers by approximately 120 yards in this game and if Palmer gets the passing game going, this could be a blowout again. Chalk plays in this one are Palmer & Johnson. I think that Brown is the play at WR for the Cardinals but you can probably take all three and be just fine with Antonio Brown’s availability in question and Edelman coming back from his broken foot, you can save on WR this week and ensure you take Gronkowski! You should expect that most of the public will take the Cardinals defense this weekend simply because of their last matchup so be cautious there as defense might be the one that determines the winners again this weekend.

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