Thoughts on #SuperBowl50 in #Murica

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If you consider all the things about football, it’s the simple mistakes that might be the difference between winning or losing, particularly a Big game — read Playoffs, read esp. Super Bowl. We are talking about small failures, here — basic mechanical failures, mental errors and blind spots of memory. Foolish laziness that nobody noticed in the first three games of the year will loom gigantic in the playoffs. A simple dropped pass in the fourth quarter will haunt a football player for the rest of his life and cause him to scream in his sleep. Those things will never be forgotten.

Indeed. There are many cruel Rooms in the mansion, and many deep holes in the Road. Keep alert or get stabbed. Of all the shocks and pains that every football season brings, the worst of all is the ending of it. And that is what we face now — two Sunday’s from now, in fact, before the bell tolls. There will be no appeal, no extension, no replay. That will be the end of the football season, no matter who complains.

A few geeks will, of course. A few swine always do. No barrel is utterly clean. That would be atmospherically impossible, right? And rest assured that nothing on this Earth is 100 percent clean. Nothing…. Maybe you are one of those people who honestly believes that Cats are clean? I hope not, because you are saddling up for a serious fall. Cats are filthy, and they don’t mind passing it around. The smell of a large cat (as in Lion or Panther) at room temperature in a sea-level house is so powerful and so disorienting as to derail the human brain. The odor of a mountain lion in the wild is far more terrifying than the sight of the beast, even on a frozen night in the snow. It will literally “take your breath away” at 10 or even 20 yards. Your whole nervous system will seize up and be paralyzed, even your lungs. So stay away from all animals that are bigger than you are, especially at night when they are nervous. A brown bear will eat your whole body in 24 hours. Beware.

What? Why are we worrying about bears and cats at this time of year, days before the Super Bowl? I’ll tell you why: Because every time I think about Denver in the Superbowl and Football and Patriotism all at once, I think of Nixon and dangerous wild animals and his lust for power. Nixon was a football fan — and so am I, as it happens, and I can tell you from years of keen observation that us football fans have a way of getting together, no matter where we are.

There is nothing supernatural about it, but I have witnessed it happen over and over. Football fans share a universal language that cuts across many cultures and many personality types. A serious football fan is never alone. We are legion, and Football is often the only thing we have in common. We recognize each other instantly, even if we have to speak in sign language, or raised eyebrows. No doubt it has something to do with the gambling instinct, which is also universal.

The next time you find yourself in need of conversation in some backwoods foreign airport, as I have from time to time, take this tip and look around for the nearest public TV set that is tuned to a football game. That will be your oasis, no matter how long your layover may. You will get your questions answered.

Gaming is another universal language, along with simple mathematics, cold beer, and wild sex. Any traveler who is conversant in these tongues and football too will find friends in any town. Take my word for it.

It goes without saying, of course, that extreme behavior in all these lines is not recommended. Heavy drinking and berserk gambling among strangers will usually lead to trouble on the road, and you want to keep in mind that airport bars are no longer as tolerant as they used to be. Last year’s fun is today’s crime. Even tying your shoes in an airport could get you locked up.

It will not be long before all major airlines will require all passengers to disrobe and change into standard Hospital gowns before they board a plane. This is already in the planning stage, according to a lawyer from Albuquerque who also assures me that sleeping gas will be introduced later this year on flights of 40 minutes or longer. “The gas has already been market tested,” he said. “Passengers are heavily in favor of it.”

“What passengers?” I asked him. “Not football fans on their way to Santa Clara, I bet, or people who have to write speeches on airplanes.”

“There will be no exceptions,” he assured me. “Only uniformed soldiers and police officials licensed to carry concealed weapons.”

“That’s good,” I said. “I have a machine gun license.”

“Very funny,” he said. “Don’t push your luck these days. That’s why we have these new secret prisons.”

I hung up and crossed his name off my guest list for the Super Bowl. Nazis are not welcome at this party. They can’t be trusted.

So how about the Big Game, sport? Who is going to win?

Who indeed?! But if I were a betting man I would go with…Find out later,  I might even go double on it. Why not? It’s the last game of the year. I won’t lose….


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released over nearly 400 prop bets for wagering. Click on the picture for a PDF with all of them, and enjoy.

Click for all PROP-BETS

A betting trend for every #NFL team heading into the Divisional Round. | National Football Post

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NFL Divisional Round – Situational Trends

The last ten Wild Card teams to win in the first round of the playoffs went 4-6 straight-up and 7-2-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (+3) at Panthers, Packers (+7) at Cardinals, Steelers (+7) at Broncos and Chiefs (+3) at Patriots.

The last ten No. 1 seeds in the NFL Playoffs have gone 6-4 straight-up and 2-7-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (-3) vs. Seahawks and Broncos (-7) vs. Steelers.

All-time in the playoffs, teams that won by three touchdowns or more and then are underdogs the next game went 15-27 straight-up and 16-26 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (+3) at Patriots.

The last ten favorites of a touchdown or greater in the Divisional Round went 7-3 straight-up but 3-6-1 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-7) vs. Steelers and Cardinals (-7) vs. Packers.

NFL Trends – Divisional Round
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)

AZ -7 vs. GB Arizona has never lost at home in the playoffs: 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.
The Cardinals have only been a favorite in the postseason once, they won and covered that game (30-24 vs. Atlanta 2008-09).
Carson Palmer at home with the Cardinals is 16-4 straight-up and 12-7-1 against-the-spread.
Palmer has played in just two postseason games, his team went 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in both.
CAR -3 vs. SEA Carolina has won 11 straight at home and went 8-3 against-the-spread in those games.
All-time in the playoffs, the Panthers at home are 3-2 straight-up and against-the-spread.
In the postseason as favorites Carolina is 2-1 straight-up and against-the-spread.
In the playoffs vs the NFL West, the Panthers are 2-4 straight-up and against-the-spread.
DEN -7 vs. PIT Peyton Manning with the Broncos in the playoffs is 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 against-the-spread.
In his postseason career, Manning as a touchdown or greater favorite is 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 against-the-spread.
In the last ten years, the Broncos as home favorites in the playoffs are 3-3 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread.
All-time, as the top seed in the AFC, Denver is 4-2 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread in its first game of the playoffs.
GB +7 @ AZ The last time the Packers won a road playoff game (2010-11) the team went on to win the Super Bowl.
Green Bay is 2-5 straight-up in the postseason when playing on the West Coast (3-3-1 ATS).
Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 against-the-spread away from Lambea in the postseason (4-3 straight-up).
Rodgers and the Packers are also 4-2 against-the-spread as underdogs in the playoffs (3-3 straight-up).
KC +3 @ NE All-time, the Chiefs following a playoff win have gone 1-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in the next game.
Kansas City is 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 against-the-spread all-time as underdogs in the postseason.
KC is 2-8 straight-up and 4-6 against-the-spread on the road in the playoffs.
As road underdogs in the postseason, the Chiefs have lost on average by 10.7 points
NE -3 vs. KC Tom Brady is 21-8 straight-up in the playoffs but 13-15-1 against-the-spread.
Brady has always been a favorite at home in the playoffs, he is 14-3 straight-up and 8-8-1 ATS in those games.
New England, with Brady, is 4-2 straight-up against the AFC West all-time in the postseason and 2-3-1 against-the-spread.
The Patriots haven’t lost to the Chiefs in New England since 1990 and are 6-1 straight-up all time at home vs. Kansas City (3-4 ATS).
PIT +7 @ DEN As an underdog in the playoffs, Ben Roethlisberger has gone 3-2 ATS (2-3 straight-up).
Roethlisberger has been a touchdown or greater underdog once in the postseason and he won that game outright (21-18) vs. the Colts in 2005-06.
The Steelers have covered five straight as touchdown or greater dogs in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS (3-3 straight-up) all-time vs. Denver in the playoffs, though the last they met Tim Tebow beat the Steelers with an 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play in overtime.
SEA +3 @ CAR Russell Wilson improved his playoff record to 7-2 straight-up with the win in Minnesota, but 5-3-1 against-the-spread.
In Wilson’s career, the Seahawks a road underdogs are 8-3-2 against-the-spread (6-7 straight-up).
All-time, the Seahawks away from home in the playoffs are 3-11 straight-up and 6-8 against-the-spread
Seattle has never lost to Carolina in the postseason: 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.

pablo (7)

Source: National Football Post

DiRTy Plays Fan Night Tuesday

April 14th, 2015

We are down to the final 3 days of the regular season and for your daily NBA fantasy tournaments as such, we are extending our invite to a complete breakdown that will included – specials – analysis  – projections set for you to win fresh-lettuce tonight – go to the current RotoCanon page for the week or click DiRTyPlays. Tonight features several playoff contending teams including OKC and the Pelicans.  Use our DiRTyPlays, it helps you win.  We have placed the same information we send to members on our RotoCanon page for you and you will notice that it might be a good idea to look at CJ Miles & David West tonight as they top our list of #Sleepers.

It’s crunch time as the NBA is coming to a close in the coming weeks and we want you to win.  Join our FreeRoll on DraftKings as well as our beginners double up on Fan Duel.  Just click any of the links or pictures and be sure to take our poll on information provided in our DiRTyPlays segment as we look for you to tell us what level of information you are looking for.

 

MLB Update

As the MLB season has kicked off, we are still in the process of testing theories, stats and information as it pertains to pertinent information, analysis, projections and subsequently lineup creation.  Over the coming weeks, we will be providing a daily set of players we have identified as having top matchups and/or hot streaks.  We will also provide you with a lineup for both Fan Duel & DraftKings that you might consider playing each night.  Just go to our DiRTyPlays page for the week and each day there will be a section for MLB.  We want your feedback, so contact us and as we release special contests, designed for our subscriber base, you can simply click any of the banners for each site to be taken directly there to enter the lineups we have prepared for you.

 

DiRTy Plays Case of the Mondays

April 13th, 2015

We are down to the final 3 days of the regular season and for your daily NBA fantasy tournaments as such, we are extending our invite to a complete breakdown that will included – specials – analysis  – projections set for you to win fresh-lettuce tonight – go to the current RotoCanon page for the week or click DiRTyPlays. Tonight features several playoff contending teams including OKC and the Pelicans.  Use our DiRTyPlays, it helps you win.  We have placed the same information we send to members on our RotoCanon page for you and you will notice that it might be a good idea to look at Omri Casspi & Rodney Hood tonight as they top our list of #Sleepers.

It’s crunch time as the NBA is coming to a close in the coming weeks and we want you to win.  Join our FreeRoll on DraftKings as well as our beginners double up on Fan Duel.  Just click any of the links or pictures and be sure to take our poll on information provided in our DiRTyPlays segment as we look for you to tell us what level of information you are looking for.

 

MLB Update

As the MLB season has kicked off, we are still in the process of testing theories, stats and information as it pertains to pertinent information, analysis, projections and subsequently lineup creation.  Over the coming weeks, we will be providing a daily set of players we have identified as having top matchups and/or hot streaks.  We will also provide you with a lineup for both Fan Duel & DraftKings that you might consider playing each night.  Just go to our DiRTyPlays page for the week and each day there will be a section for MLB.  We want your feedback, so contact us and as we release special contests, designed for our subscriber base, you can simply click any of the banners for each site to be taken directly there to enter the lineups we have prepared for you.

 

DiRTy Plays Opening Day Friday

April 10th, 2015

We are down to the final 5 days of the regular season and for your daily NBA fantasy tournaments as such, we are extending our invite to a complete breakdown that will included – specials – analysis  – projections set for you to win fresh-lettuce tonight – go to the current RotoCanon page for the week or click DiRTyPlays. Tonight features several playoff contending teams including OKC and the Pelicans.  Use our DiRTyPlays, it helps you win.  We have placed the same information we send to members on our RotoCanon page for you and you will notice that it might be a good idea to look at Omri Casspi & Ryan Kelly tonight as they top our list of #Sleepers.

It’s crunch time as the NBA is coming to a close in the coming weeks and we want you to win.  Join our FreeRoll on DraftKings as well as our beginners double up on Fan Duel.  Just click any of the links or pictures and be sure to take our poll on information provided in our DiRTyPlays segment as we look for you to tell us what level of information you are looking for.

 

MLB Update

As the MLB season has kicked off, we are still in the process of testing theories, stats and information as it pertains to pertinent information, analysis, projections and subsequently lineup creation.  Over the coming weeks, we will be providing a daily set of players we have identified as having top matchups and/or hot streaks.  We will also provide you with a lineup for both Fan Duel & DraftKings that you might consider playing each night.  Just go to our DiRTyPlays page for the week and each day there will be a section for MLB.  We want your feedback, so contact us and as we release special contests, designed for our subscriber base, you can simply click any of the banners for each site to be taken directly there to enter the lineups we have prepared for you.

Strategic Planning

With the complexity of building your daily MLB fantasy baseball lineup, we wanted to provide you with some of the strategic evaluations that we implement in our systematic approach to selecting players each day.  We want your feedback, please go to our DiRTy Plays for the week, let us know what other information you would like or feel you need.  If you just want our lineups, that’s great, just answer one quick question so we can ensure we have those features available in the future.

Start Small: Do not jump into an expensive tournament without understanding how it all works. Try a freeroll or some of the cheaper games. You’ll start to understand when to spend on a big hitter or when to roll the dice on a cheap player.

Righty/lefty splits are HUGE:With daily play, you will want to play right-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers, and left-handed hitters against right-handed pitchers. This is usually the most important thing to consider when working on lineups. Knowing that Josh Donaldson hit 50 points higher against left-handed pitchers last season, with a ton of power, should make a difference in your lineups — when he faces lefties.

Ballpark factors are very important:Take into consideration which parks are best for hitters (Coors Field, Citizens Bank Park, Great America Ball Park, Camden Yards and U.S. Cellular Field) and which parks are best for pitchers (Marlins Park, PNC Park, AT&T Park, Target Field, PetCo Park or O.co Coliseum) when determining a daily lineup.

Consider lightly, batter vs. pitcher stats:You might believe how this hitter has a .424 batting average against this pitcher, and how this hitter has just three hits in 21 at-bats against this pitcher. But be careful and not let that affect your lineup as much as their righty/lefty splits or the park in which they’re playing. Think of it this way: the more a batter sees a pitcher, the better he can figure him out — and vice-versa. Generally speaking, these sample sizes are not big enough to give too much credit.

50/50 games are your friends:One of the quickest mistakes people make when they play daily games is that they want to jump into the big tournaments and try to turn a few bucks into a big payday. The odds are very much against you, and you’re likely going up against veteran players that have multiple entries in the tournament. But in 50/50 or Head-to-Head games, you only have to finish in the top 50 percent of the entrants, rather than the top 15 percent.

Consider longshots in tournaments:When you play in tournaments, you’re up against large numbers of people, so if you take Tulo, and most of them also take Tulo, then you all just cancel each other out. But if you start Santana, saving $5,000 in salary cap space, you’ll have a chance to put that money elsewhere in your lineup — granted, you’ll still need to get points out of Santana, but that’s the trick. With that said, you still need some good players in your lineup, but you might want to pepper in some longshots with decent matchups.

Steer clear of longshots in 50/50 games:Since you only have to beat half the field to win, there’s no reason to take big chances. You don’t want to score the highest in the group, you just want to be above half the teams. Don’t reach for a pitcher you have a hunch on, or a gimpy player you think will leg it out.

On-base percentage is key:Make sure you check the differences in scoring if you play on multiple sites. Most sites will give you points for standard fare, like hits, total bases, RBI and runs, but some will also give you points for walks. When you’re scrambling for players near the bottom of the barrel, try to find players with decent on-base percentages.

Big hitters can make a big difference:There are some daily fantasy baseball sites that deduct points if a player gets an out, and then more points if that player strikes out.  A Home-Run Hitter usually is going to do one of three things: draw a walk, strike out, or hit the ball out of the park.

Don’t pay for catchers:Just like in traditional play, catchers are necessary evils in daily fantasy baseball. But you can pay for a lower salaried catcher that has a good matchup, and not roll the dice on a much more expensive catcher — and you’ll be just fine. They just don’t do enough offensively day in and day out to make them worth their high salaries.

Pay for wins and strikeouts:You might have a hunch on a pitcher against a mediocre team, but your fantasy roster should be led by one or two pitchers that are facing bad teams. You want a pitcher that racks up innings and strikeouts, with a shot at a win at the end.

Let Twitter help you:By working closely with Twitter, you’ll be able to find out when a player has been scratched from the lineup, giving you ample time to swap him out of your daily fantasy lineup. Also, you’ll see what other players and writers are leaning toward, giving you an edge on your opponents.

 

DiRTy Plays Mega Slam Wednesday

April 8th, 2015

We are down to the final 7 days of the regular season and for your daily NBA fantasy tournaments as such, we are extending our invite to a complete breakdown that will included – specials – analysis  – projections set for you to win fresh-lettuce tonight – go to the current RotoCanon page for the week or click DiRTyPlays. Tonight features only a few games so slim pickings, therefore you will need to be precise in your selections.  Use our DiRTyPlays, it helps you win.  We have placed the same information we send to members on our RotoCanon page for you and you will notice that it might be a good idea to look at Mike Muscala & Bismack Biyombo tonight as they top our list of #Sleepers.

It’s crunch time as the NBA is coming to a close in the coming weeks and we want you to win.  Join our FreeRoll on DraftKings as well as our beginners double up on Fan Duel.  Just click any of the links or pictures and be sure to take our poll on information provided in our DiRTyPlays segment as we look for you to tell us what level of information you are looking for.

 

MLB Update

As the MLB season has kicked off, we are still in the process of testing theories, stats and information as it pertains to pertinent information, analysis, projections and subsequently lineup creation.  Over the coming weeks, we will be providing a daily set of players we have identified as having top matchups and/or hot streaks.  We will also provide you with a lineup for both Fan Duel & DraftKings that you might consider playing each night.  Just go to our DiRTyPlays page for the week and each day there will be a section for MLB.  We want your feedback, so contact us and as we release special contests, designed for our subscriber base, you can simply click any of the banners for each site to be taken directly there to enter the lineups we have prepared for you.

DiRTy Plays Fan Night Tuesday

April 7th, 2015

We are down to the final 8 days of the regular season and for your daily NBA fantasy tournaments as such, we are extending our invite to a complete breakdown that will included – specials – analysis  – projections set for you to win fresh-lettuce tonight – go to the current RotoCanon page for the week or click DiRTyPlays. Tonight features only a few games so slim pickings, therefore you will need to be precise in your selections.  Use our DiRTyPlays, it helps you win.  We have placed the same information we send to members on our RotoCanon page for you and you will notice that it might be a good idea to look at Marvin Williams and Wesley Johnson tonight as they top our list of #Sleepers.

It’s crunch time as the NBA is coming to a close in the coming weeks and we want you to win.  Join our FreeRoll on DraftKings as well as our beginners double up on Fan Duel.  Just click any of the links or pictures and be sure to take our poll on information provided in our DiRTyPlays segment as we look for you to tell us what level of information you are looking for.