What You Need To Know For Wednesday 11-4-15

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1. Save The Outrage Francis:

Important disclaimer: The rankings we are about to talk about do not matter much, in terms of the actual College Football Playoff. Analyzing the selection committee’s first rankings, released on Tuesday, requires putting them into the proper Nov. 3 perspective.

Clemson, LSU, Ohio State and Alabama would be in the playoff if it started now, but, as always, we have to emphasize the obvious amid the outrage: The playoff does not start now, nor does it start next week or the week after. A lot is still left to be decided. In fact, the first rankings were outdated after four hours, as undefeated No. 24 Toledo lost to Northern Illinois 32-27 on Tuesday night.

The College Football Playoff could collectively reduce the stress levels of college football fans across America if it chose to not publicly release a top 25 until……(continue reading)

SOURCE: FIRST CFB PLAYOFF RANKINGS RELEASED – Matt Brown


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2. This Is Sparta Xerxes, Not Intramurals:

In 2013, Colin Kaepernick dropped back to pass on fourth and goal from the 5-yard line in the Super Bowl, immediately felt pressure up the middle and lofted a poor pass to Michael Crabtree, who couldn’t haul it in. The San Francisco 49ers lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 34-31, but with Kaepernick and head coach Jim Harbaugh in place, the future looked bright.

On Monday — the day before Kaepernick’s 28th birthday — the 49ers informed Kaepernick he would be replaced by Blaine Gabbert for the team’s Week 9 game against the Atlanta Falcons.

How did it get to this? How did a quarterback……(continue reading)

SOURCE: THE FALL OF COLIN KAEPERNICK – Andrew Garda


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3. Mariota the Coach-Killa?

The Titans have fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt after the team was destroyed by the Texans on Sunday, 20-6, falling to 1-6 on the season. It’s not a completely shocking move, considering Whisenhunt’s overall record of 3-20 over two years.

The surprising part of this is that Tennessee decided to pull the trigger in the middle of Marcus Mariota’s rookie season. While Mike Mularky was promoted to interim head coach, what does the change mean for the second pick in the 2015 NFL draft?

The track record for young quarterbacks who have offensive coordinator and head coach changes is fraught with failure. Alex Smith went through……(continue reading)

SOURCE: WHISENHUNT’S GONE, SO WHAT NOW? – Andrew Garda


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4. Lesson 1 – Always Buy Rubbers in Bulk:

His wild and party-loving persona may not give you the impression that Rob Gronkowski is disciplined with his money, but Gronk would argue otherwise. The Patriots tight end claimed in a recent published memoir — which he totally wrote all by himself — that he has yet to touch one dime of his signing bonus or NFL contract money and that everything he has been spending has come from endorsements. That’s remarkably smart money management. Just let the annual party ships pay for everything.

So perhaps it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that Gronk has paired with Capital One to dispense “common-sense advice for money management” in a promotion called GRONKonomics……(continue reading)

SOURCE: PRESENTING GRONKONOMICS – Michael Tunison


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5. Same As It Ever Was:

The baseball postseason is less than one-sixth the length of the regular season, but sometimes it feels twice as long. One month passes in the regular season and you barely notice; one month in the playoffs is a lifetime. Remember when the National League Central was all anyone could talk about? Or when the Blue Jays were an unstoppable juggernaut? Or when all that mattered was the Cubs?

The postseason tells us so much — about the game, the players, the teams and how we react to all of them. Here’s a look at 10 major takeaways from the 2015 baseball postseason: What do we know now that we didn’t one month ago? We were so young then. We had so much to learn……(continue reading)

SOURCE: 10 LESSONS FROM THE MLB POSTSEASON – Will Leitch

Weekend Update: Another #Football Monday

Bullet Points

1. Nice way to get your 400th TD

So that’s what a walk-off homerun looks like in the NFL…Overtime lasted only 13 seconds.  That is 1 second faster than the previous regular-season-record-holder, when Chad Morton returned a kick-off 96 yards for the Jets to beat Buffalo back in September 2002.  The fastest?  That was also from a saint – Saint Tebow, when he threw to Demariyus Thomas to beat Pittsburgh in the playoffs, in only 11 seconds.  It was the first overtime touchdown pass of Brees’s career, and only the second ever by a Saints quarterback. Back in 1998, Danny Wuerffel and Cameron Cleeland combined for a 33-yard overtime touchdown that beat Indianapolis, 19-13, leaving the Colts’ rookie quarterback Peyton Manning still looking for his first NFL victory. That made the Saints head coach very happy — a fellow named Mike Ditka.


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2. Texas Strong

In the history of word association, no one has ever confused “delusional” with Texas Longhorn fans.  Yet, here they are again.  Longhorn fan forgets when Colorado and Nebraska saved them, when they included them into the Big 8.  Longhorn fan believed that they were the gift of college football and their arrogance alienated Texas A&M to move to a superior conference – taking with them the status of #1 program in the state – Baylor and TCU might disagree – but the point is, for years Texas bullied everyone and their arrogance has finally caught up to them.  Texas thought they would always get the top recruits, the top coach and when they actually have a coach that is willing to rebuild their burnt-orange luster in the correct way – they lose their minds


3. It’s still about Jimmy’s and Joe’s, not X’s and O’s

In the beginning, all we heard was how the Chipster was going to revolutionize the game with his offense.  It’s hard to argue against that it didn’t work.  Chip did win 10 games in his first two years as a head coach in the NFL.  But now Demarco Murray is unhappy with his role  and there is nothing that says to me that Chip lasts past this year, if things continue.  For a fanbase that booed Santa Claus and has never been known as rational, as it looks today, will not be able to tolerate Mr.Kelly any longer.


4. Stone Cold Dan Quinn

It is a dangerous thing for a Saints fan to witness the difference Dan Quinn has made.  He has the entire city and more importantly, the team believing in themselves.  The Falcons already had the best wide receiver in Julio Jones, but now they seem to be able to run the ball.  Watching Devonta Freeman under Mike Smith, is not the same kid you see now.  When Devonta Freeman scored three touchdowns for the second consecutive week – Freeman became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson to score 3TD’s in two straight games – L.T. had a 3-game streak in 2006 – but, what says more about it is, Devonta became the 1st Falcon, ever, with consecutive 3-TD games of any kind.  the Falcons are 4-0 and have such an easy schedule that it might remind Atlanta fans of baseball, waiting for the post-season to start.


#ByeFelicia

5. Squished Fish?

It’s no secret, I think Joe’s gotta go, and as bad he has been as a leader, a coach…I say it’s not all his fault.  I lay at least half of the blame at Steve Ross.  You Steve hired Joe and retained him last year.  Remember when you said you really like the way this team plays and where they are headed – and we said this:

Huh? say that again? A close win against the Vikings gives you this feeling that, this team, this coach, is headed in the right direction?  Is mediocrity a direction, and do you travel thru Miami now(not Dallas this year) to get there?  Standards have been lowered or the owner is still intoxicated from that win early in the year – at home – against the Patriots.  Bet we still see Philbin fired before the end of the 2016.

So now, after OVER-spending for $uh and giving Tannehill a huge contract extension – you think that Sunday’s performance was the final straw?  Mr.Ross, you can and should fire Philbin – but it still doesn’t change the mediocre empire you’re in-charge of until you fire yourself! —(UPDATE: PHILBIN HAS BEEN FIRED)

  • Joe Philbin must show fire, better leadership to save job. – the Miami Dolphins are sinking fast after a 1-3 start.  They entered the season with playoff expectations, but nearly all of that optimism is gone after three straight losses by a combined score of 91-48.  Can the season be salvaged?……(continue reading)

6. Squidward’s Folly

Xerxes, Where have you gone?!  It didn’t seem that long ago that people like Trent Dilfer and Ron Jaworski were annointing Kaepernick the greatest QB of all time – a game changer at the position, blah blah blah.  Maybe there was more to Harbaugh than just wins – or maybe Xerxes just decided that he was as good as all that press and no longer needed to study or look for his 2nd and 3rd reads, etc…Either way, this top-to-bottom-organizational-implosion is entertaining to watch – from Tomsula letting one fly in a press conference to the constant dumpster-fire that is the 49ers right now.

Over/Under Value

I’ve spent some time reviewing the experts and their consensus (ECR) and playing around several mock drafts to find an average draft position (ADP) for a lot of the players that’ll be selected in your Fantasy Football League(s).  In participating, I found some strange outcomes that should help you, and I have put together a little something that might help your plan of attack.  For me, it has been about QB’s and WR’s for years and that knowledge has taken me to no worse than 3rd place in any year I have played FF (currently reigning world champ) – so it is still surprising to me how often people go after RB’s so early.  Here is an example from one of my mock drafts, I was drafting 6th, out of 10:

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At the end of day, it is still your draft, and your choices, along with your instincts that sometimes you have to go with.  Afterall, you know your league-mates better than anyone else, and what they are going to do.  So, to recap – a player’s ECR and their ADP (average draft position) will not coincide with one another very often. There are players with large discrepancies from where the experts are projecting them and where drafters and mock drafters alike are selecting their picks.

With less than two months until the start of the season, let’s take a look at which players are being overvalued and undervalued based on their difference in ECR and ADP. It’s a classic experts versus the average drafter. I’m providing three undervalued and three overvalued players at each of the four offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, TE).

Undervalued QBs

  • Colin Kaepernick – SF (ECR-105, ADP-138, Diff. +33)
    It appears that a lot of people are down on Xerxes after a sub-par 2014 season, as he is being massively undervalued as the 21st QB. He finished last year as the 16th-best QB. With Jim Harbaugh out of the mix and the defense depleted from retirement, I expect Kaepernick to get plenty of garbage time opportunities to rack up fantasy points.
  • Teddy Bridgewater – MIN (ECR-104, ADP-136, Diff. +32)Teddy Two-Gloves came into his own the last five games of 2014 and could take another leap with Adrian Peterson returning to the mix. He is a borderline QB1 yet is currently being drafted as the 19th QB off the board, even behind rookies Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota –  If you are a fan of streaming QBs, Teddy might be your guy to target for 2015.
  • Ryan Tannehill – MIA (ECR-75, ADP-95, Diff. +20)Tannehill, who was the eighth-best QB in 2014, is currently being taken nearly two rounds later than what experts would expect. Many fantasy owners are still unsure of Tannehill, but with his underrated running ability (317 yards), he still looks like a steal as the 11th QB taken.

Overvalued QBs

  • Jameis Winston – TB (ECR-152, ADP-131, Diff. -21)Winston is being taken almost a full two rounds before the experts’ consensus. Winston is still a gamble at best in 2QB leagues, as we’ve yet to see him take a snap under center in the league. The Bucs’ offensive line is one of the worst in the league and they have zero run game. Do not reach on Famous Jameis until the last round of your draft.
  • Tom Brady – NE (ECR-86, ADP-72, Diff. -14)Even if his suspension were cut to zero games, Brady is being taken as an elite quarterback, a level he only briefly performed at in 2014. Despite a stretch of monster games in Weeks 5-9, Brady was a QB1 only two more times. In other words, if you are expecting consistency and an elite level of performance every week, look elsewhere.

 

  • Peyton Manning – DEN (ECR-43, ADP-31, Diff. -12)Manning is being taken consistently as the third QB in drafts, mostly propped up from years of fantasy football respect. During the second half of 2014, Manning was a replacement level QB, as the Broncos leaned heavily on the run game. He’s not the Peyton of old, so be sure to draft accordingly.

Undervalued RBs

  • Roy Helu – OAK (ECR-150, ADP-235, Diff. +85)Helu is another PPR owner’s dream that is slipping tremendously in drafts. The newly-inked Oakland Raider should be an active third down back with exceptional receiving skills. At +85, Helu has by far the greatest discrepancy of any ECR vs. ADP ranking. Maybe snag this guy in your drafts because no one else seems to be!
  • LeGarrette Blount – NE (ECR-59, ADP-73, Diff. +14)It looks like owners are still skeptical of the weekly Patriots RB roulette. Despite being the most talented back in New England, Blount is being taken behind Giovani Bernard, Joique Bell, and Tevin Coleman, backs in a clear time-share situation. He was the lead back after being acquired in Week 12 and lead man throughout the playoffs. He represents great value as a RB3/FLEX play.
  • Danny Woodhead – SD (ECR-139, ADP-149, Diff. +10)Woodhead is currently being taken as the 57th RB mostly as a reaction to his lost 2014 campaign due to a broken fibula in Week 3. As a third-down back, he is a perfect PPR candidate as a FLEX and should be taken above other backs with no clear role in their offenses (Duke Johnson, Charles Sims, Darren McFadden).

Overvalued RBs

  • DeAngelo Williams – PIT (ECR-175, ADP-127, Diff. -48)As Le’Veon Bell’s handcuff and replacement during his suspension, owners are scooping up Williams almost 50 picks before the experts’ consensus. He offers replacement-level value at best and does not offer long-term fantasy relevance at his current ADP. He is simply not a must-own for those who do draft Bell early.
  • Todd Gurley – STL (ECR-58, ADP-44, Diff. -14)The former Georgia Bulldog has yet to touch the field as a professional and yet is being drafted as a clear-cut RB2 and the 20th RB overall. Drafters seem to have much more confidence in Gurley than the experts. Although he has the talent, he is still a relative unknown for fantasy purposes coming off ACL surgery.
  • Joique Bell – DET (ECR-64, ADP-57, Diff. -7)Bell’s fantasy value has taken a hit this offseason, especially with the Lions’ drafting of speedster Ameer Abdullah. This has not kept owners from grabbing Bell as a borderline RB2. Expect his value to drop even further as preseason begins and Bell loses his grip on the starting role.

Undervalued WRs

  • Anquan Boldin – SF (ECR-93, ADP-122, Diff. +29)Although many owners have pegged Boldin as over-the-hill and it seems like he’s been in the league forever, the veteran finished his 2014 campaign 21st WR in standard formats and 18th in PPR scoring. He is being “rewarded” for these efforts by being selected as the 47th WR. He will still be Kaepernick’s favorite target and an excellent WR3 candidate for those who wait patiently.
  • Allen Robinson – JAX (ECR-74, ADP-87, Diff. +13)Robinson has been one of the most talked about fantasy players of the offseason yet is still not receiving his due. Despite being the Jaguars clear No. 1 option at WR, he is going a full round later than projected. He will only go up in value from this point, as he has WR2 potential.
  • Vincent Jackson – TB (ECR-61, ADP-71, Diff. +10)Jackson had a hard-luck 2014 season, as he had only 55% of his targets considered “on-target,” the lowest total in the league. His two touchdowns were a disappointment, another testament to poor QB play. He is being drafted currently as a WR3 and could present some sneaky value.

Overvalued WRs

  • Kevin White – CHI (ECR-98, ADP-78, Diff. -20)What do we know so far about White as an NFL receiver? Other than Mel Kiper Jr. drooling over his potential and the hangover owners are experiencing from last year’s rookie WR blowout party – White should be handled with much more care than the nearly two-round differential he is being selected at. Owners need to take into account newly-signed slot receiver Eddie Royal, who will compete with White and gather targets over the middle from QB Jay Cutler.
  • Victor Cruz – NYG (ECR-114, ADP-97, Diff. -17)After a devastating patellar tendon injury ended his 2014 season, owners seem to think Cruz is capable of coming back with a vengeance. He will compete for second place in the Giants’ target pecking order with Rueben Randle, someone who is currently going 204th overall and presents much better value. For Cruz’s skill set as a shifty, speed receiver, a big return from this kind of injury is unlikely and does not warrant anything above a ninth- or tenth-round pick.
  • Sammy Watkins – BUF (ECR-55, ADP-46, Diff. -9)After a rookie year in which Watkins flashed game-breaking ability as well as having major hip surgery, owners are drafting him as the 19th-best WR. With an unsettled quarterback situation and a change in the coaching regime in Buffalo, Watkins has too many variables to be taken this early.

Undervalued TEs

  • Larry Donnell – NYG (ECR-133, ADP-231, Diff. +98)Poor Larry…He is basically being undrafted, as there’s a huge difference between the ECR and ADP. Although he crept in as a TE1 and was a red-zone target for Eli Manning
    last year, he is currently being forgotten behind throw-aways Eric Ebron and Jared Cook.
  • Tyler Eifert – CIN (ECR-137, ADP-219, Diff. +82)Eifert represents a significant value for owners with TE1 upside. Eifert had major shoulder surgery in the offseason but will be the main TE target in Cincinnati following Jermaine Gresham‘s departure. If you are looking for a late-round flyer, he should be available. Yahoo has basically dropped Eifert off the face of the planet, ranking him as the 55th TE overall and 1840th overall!
  • Delanie Walker – TEN (ECR-103, ADP-140, Diff. +37)Walker quietly put together a solid season despite poor QB play in Tennessee, finishing as the 8th TE overall. Owners must have forgotten that a trusty TE is always a rookie QB’s best friend, as he is currently going behind a suspended Antonio Gates, an offseason-hyped Josh Hill, and a TD-dependent Dwayne Allen. Walker has great value and should finish as a TE1.

Overvalued TEs

  • Julius Thomas – JAX (ECR-94, ADP-75, Diff. -19)Other than being a red-zone monster (12 TDs) in 2014, Thomas had minimal value with 43 catches for only 489 yards. After getting paid by the Jaguars this offseason, he currently is being drafted as the sixth TE, almost two rounds before the experts. Taking into account the change of scenery from Denver, it will be hard to recreate Thomas’ red-zone opportunities from 2014. Advice; pass on him at his current ADP.
  • Owen Daniels – DEN (ECR-126, ADP-110, Diff. -16)It is clear that Daniels and Gary Kubiak have a good thing going. From Houston to Baltimore and now Denver, Daniels has had a significant role in each offense Kubiak has led. Drafters are betting on Manning finding Daniels regularly, although he could face stiff TE competition from an emerging Virgil Green.
  • Dwayne Allen – IND (ECR-122, ADP-111, Diff. -11)Much like Thomas, most of Allen’s value in 2014 came from the eight touchdowns he scored on only 29 catches. He is being drafted as the 11th overall TE yet will be splitting time with Coby Fleener. Earlier this offseason, the Colts also revealed that they are ditching their two-TE sets, meaning Allen should be falling even further in an offense where the ball will be flying all over the place.