#NFL DiRTy Plays 2015 – Week 6
The controversy for week 6 has been Deflate Gate since this past January and the Colts decided to blow the whistle on the Patriots because of their beat down in the AFC Championship. There really isn’t much to say about this game from my perspective. I expect the Patriots to slaughter the Colts again, Blount should have a big game and I expect Brady to throw 4 TD’s again this weekend. Could there be a surprise, sure but let’s face it, Brady is on a mission and this should conclude his revenge against the NFL and we can get back to, “We’re onto next week!”
Onto better news, The DiRT Canon AI has officially gone live with the latest update coming out on October 1st to our Lineup Analyzer! This means that you will now get full recommendations for us to analyze your lineup in real time. NO MORE WAITING, so come and check it out here and if you sign up for our Silver membership you will get the rest of the month at 50% off. This means our season is underway and I know you are still looking to become a millionaire, whether you play on Draftkings or FanDuel, let us help. As we look at tournaments to target, build your player profile, we are also going to provide you with our experts’ picks as they bring you #TheBeSTDiRT for building your lineups each and every week. So let’s breakdown week 6 for Draftkings & FanDuel!
Absolute Must Have
As we look to move into the second quarter of the NFL season, we have some certainties, one of which is Tom Brady! He has started off the season as the highest producing player on FanDuel and #3 on Draftkings. This week he is our #1 overall Absolute #MustHave! This is the game we have been waiting for since the Colts called shenanegans on the Pats last post season. Not only have the Patriots owned them of late, they have blown them off the planet. This game doesn’t seem to have any more to it than that but I will say that by enlarge the Patriots have beat the Colts down by running the ball with an extra lineman into block. Look for Brady to exceed his projection of 26.12 on Draftkings this week as they have different weapons this year and I suspect that Lewis, Gronk and Edelman will all get into the mix, not just Blount! I believe that Gronk get’s back on the TD train, Patriots roll the Colts by 29, just like they have averaged since Andrew Luck came into the league.
***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher
For FanDuel our top Notable for week 6 is Ryan Fitzpatrick, coming in with a projection of 17.77 and a positive projection to spend ratio of 2.24. He is coming off a bye week last week and the Washington secondary is not very good. Look for Brandon Marshall to also have another solid performance again this week. On Draftkings, we have Andy Dalton. What can I say about his play this season, simply amazing. I have started him on one lineup every week since week 2 and he has outperformed our projection each time this season. The Bills defense is supposed to be stout but did you know that they have given up at least 22 fantasy points to every QB this season except Mariota last week. He was close but look who Tennessee has, certainly no AJ Green over there, look for Dalton to continue his top 5 play again this week and put up 25 fantasy points. On Draftkings as his salary is far lower than his production so far this season so give him a shot, you won’t be disappointed. His Draftkings Projection is 20.85.
***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800
Now for the category that most, if not all of you are really looking for. Each week we have nailed our #Sleeper for the week and that is why we have been so consistent in winning on both FanDuel and Draftkings! Drum roll please………….Ryan Fitzpatrick is our Absolute Sleeper on Draftkings this week. He comes in with a Draftkings Projection of 16.58 and a salary of only $5,000. I know that you might be looking for a different position here but our Absolutes are based off of a combination of projection and matchup value for the week. While Washington has a descent statistical value this season, the value for Fitzpatrick is there. If you took McCown last week, who was in a similar situation, you blew it up last week and Fitzpatrick is that guys this week, trust me. Our FanDuel Absolute Sleeper is C.Santos for the Chiefs. Yeah, I know a Kicker, come on MAN! The truth is, the Cheifs are going to struggle to put the ball in the end zone with Charles gone for the season, look for big points out of this young man. My personally selection for this week’s #Sleeper is Antonio Andrews of the Tennessee Titans. Andrews is averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game on Draftkings this season and Miami comes in with the highest projected rush yards against for the week. He is only $3,400 so for that price, you can afford some higher priced folks this week.
***Reminder that Sleepers are salaries under $5,200
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As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:
- Green Bay -11.5 over San Diego
- New England -8 over Indianapolis
- Seattle -7 over Carolina
Last week was another solid week of picks. Nailed the heaviest favorites section and as you can see, we have two of the same teams on this list again, New England and Green Bay. When the Packers are at home, it’s not the offense this year that has been incredible, it’s the defense. They are getting to the QB on a consistent basis and now get the Chargers coming into town on a short week. I like the Chargers in this one when given the points but Green Bay should secure victory in this one. I see this one having more scoring and the Packers pull it out late 33 – 29. As for the Patriots, what can I say, this should be a blowout for the Patriots again this week. The Colts haven’t played well all season, a very Luck–eh performance against the Titans and then two more division wins by a 40 year old, one of which was on his death bed. The Colts haven’t shown they can stop the run offense by New England since Luck came into the league and this just smells like another Blount kind of day. Our last game for this segment is the reeling Seahawks against the Panthers. Carolina comes into this game off a bye week and each of the last 3 games that these two have played, Seattle has won it at the end of the game in a low scoring affair. The Seahawks expect Lynch to play this week and they are at home, so you combine that with their desperate need for a victory to stay relevant this year, I’m taking Seattle to win but Carolina with the spread. The guys to look out for in these games are as follows:
- LaGarrette Blount
- Rob Gronkowski
- Tom Brady
- Donte Moncrief
- Randall Cobb
- Antonio Gates
Top Overall Game Over/Under
This week we have the Patriots as top over/under game of the week yet again. New England and Indianapolis square off yet again on a Sunday night and this time they are playing for something different.
Tom Brady wants revenge for the whistle blow last post season that almost had him sitting out until this game. The over is at 55 for this game and considering that the Patriots have averaged a 29 point victory against the Colts with Andrew Luck as the starter, this is a pretty safe take. My bold prediction for this week, which I admit, isn’t all that bold, is New England gets 6 TD’s and two field goals to put up 48 points. The Colts get some late scores and end up with 24. Blount gets 2 TD’s, Brady throws for 4 TD’s, 2 to Gronk, 1 to Lewis and 1 to Edelman. Patriots roll and the Colts, well they still need to figure out how to play defense in this league in order to be considered a championship contender.
Matchups to Exploit
In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.
Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.
- Passing Yards is the San Francisco 49ers at 308.32 yards
- Rushing Yards is Miami at 143.1 yards
- Overall is Minnesota at 420.15 yards
I agree that Dolphins D is going to get torched again but by whom you ask? My #1 Sleeper is Antonio Andrews this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings. Most people don’t know this but Andrews is averaging 13.8 points per game on Draftkings and he gets all the goal line work. I’m not saying that he is going to rush for 200 yards and 4 TD’s like Jonas Gray did last year but I could see 80 yards and 2 TD’s, which would get you over 20 fantasy points and you would only spend $3,400. The 49ers are back at home against the Ravens, who are simply struggling. Neither team is much to watch and with Smith still expected to be out, it would be a tough play to start Joe Flacco in DFS and the only receiver that might be worth while would be Kamar Aiken. I’m not taking either one as our DC*3PO has the 49ers D ranked #2 in fantasy points scored this week. Stay away from this game is all I can say! The last game on this list is Minnesota. Obviously, the stats are going to be inflated versus expectation because of the injury to Charles. I don’t expect a ton of production in this game on either side and I certainly wouldn’t take West or Davis in DFS this week, you have to wait and see who gets the workload, I suspect pretty even production. The QB to consider for this weekend is Andy Dalton, he is even cheaper than he has been as the Bengals head up to Buffalo. What most people don’t realize is that the Bills pass defense is giving up 7th most fantasy points to the QB position so far this season and #5 in points given up to TE’s. Taking the Dalton/Eifert connection is another safe play this week, with fairly cheap salaries. Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!
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Toughest QB Matchup
This week we have Russell Wilson as having the most difficult matchup of the weekend. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Wilson has been sacked the most in the NFL this season. Carolina is coming in off a bye week but the Seahawks are at home this weekend. That usually proves for a good game from Wilson but I remind you, he was sacked 6 times and should have lost to the Detroit Lions in their last home game. Our #2 matchup for the QB this week is Blake Bortles. The Texans defense is usually a tough matchup for any QB and most wouldn’t know this but it hasn’t been the passing game that has beat the Texans, it has been the run game. Look for Yeldon to get plenty of work and I do expect Bortles to have a descent fantasy week. He should get you around 17 fantasy points. The last QB for this segment is Cam Newton. We have already covered the fact that the Seahawks are at home this week, combine that with the barely NFL talent wide receiving core for the Panthers, this game looks to be another 13 – 10 type of contest. Shy away from both QB’s but look to play either defense in this game as that is where the points are going to come from. Newton will not get his average FPPG this week and will most likely come in less than Bortles at around 15 fantasy points.
Our top 3 QB’s for this week in order of projected score is Tom Brady #1, Aaron Rodgers #2 and Andy Dalton #3. Okay, by now you have to have put Brady on at least one lineup, so I think we are covered there. Let’s talk about Aaron Rodgers. He is very consistent and gets the Chargers at home on a short week, coming off a horrific loss! This bodes for a higher scoring game than most people think in my opinion. Rivers should have success against the Packers defense, even though the Packers have a top 5 fantasy scoring defense so far this season. Adams should be back this week, Montgomery has played well in his absence and what can we say about James Jones, just amazing thus far. All that said, I haven’t played Rodgers at all this season and he has only showed up on the week 2 top lineup. The simple fact is, his cost versus production isn’t worth it. One of our experts concluded earlier this week, if you were to simply build your lineup off of our Projection2Spend report here, you would have scored over 200 points last week and that is because guys like Josh McCown and Blake Bortles get you just as many if not more points than these high priced QB’s. The guy I’m on is our #3 for this week, Andy Dalton. No, I’m not jumping on the band wagon persay but I will say that Dalton has been the most consistent QB this season outside of Mr. Brady. He is also going up against the Bills defense who is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to QB’s so far this season. His $5,700 salary on Draftkings makes him an almost a #MustHave for your lineup this weekend.
This is a new segment for us to cover this year. Currently FanDuel and Draftkings won’t tell you who the public is on for this week’s contests. There is a reason for that from their perspective but from ours, we love it. While we cannot tell you specifically which site has which figures as that would violate our partnership agreement with each company, we can tell you based on the NFL.com, Perfect Lineup challenge, who the public is on. Yet another reason why you only need to come to our site for all of your Daily Fantasy information.
- QB – Tom Brady 43.0%
- RB – Devonta Freeman 64.2%
- WR – DeAndre Hopkins 40.3%
- TE – Rob Gronkowski 62.4%
- K – Stephen Gostkowski 37.7%
- DEF – Denver 45.5%
- Tom Brady 26.0 – $9,000
- Antonio Gates 25.7 – $5,500
- Devonta Freeman 24.9 – $8,000
- Andy Dalton 23.6 – $7,600
- Le’Veon Bell 22.6 – $9,000
- Antonio Gates 30.2 – $4,600
- Devonta Freeman 28.5 – $6,300
- Tom Brady 27.7 – $8,100
- Le’Veon Bell 27.6 – $8,500
- Julio Jones 27.3 – $9,200
As of today, we do not have any potential weather concerns. We will update this again on Sunday morning via Twitter, Facebook and our new Sunday AM post!
Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top lineup for week 5, main contest on Draftkings:
Now we look to provide your FanDuel lineups for the week below:
Logan Cartwright’s Expert Pick
Come check out the rest NOW.