Teaching You How to #Win – NFL DiRTy Plays Week 10

name of site - hunter thompson styleWeek 10 Absolutes 

Fantasy Sports News

We are at a crossroads in our industry as each state continues to scrutinize daily fantasy sports as a gambling, we need each of you to help.  Effective on Tuesday November 10th, 2015 the attorney general of New York sent a notice to both FanDuel and DraftKings stating that they need to cease and desist business in the state of New York. This represents approximately 10% of all entries in daily fantasy sports, not to mention that FanDuel has their corporate office in New York City. I find it very offensive that an attorney general thinks that he can just bypass laws and determine whether a business is eligible in his state and at the end of the day I truly believe that both DraftKings and FanDuel have been working on resolutions in this manner but they haven’t come out and said anything. What I do know is that the fantasy sports trade association is doing something about this as they have dedicated counsel and officials in each state lobbying for our industry and the over 200 businesses that encompass and serve the fantasy sports community. I ask for your help and this means you @MikeandMike, you can Tweet, Facebook, Instagram, etc. and point anyone and everyone you know to visit the following:

The FSTA has built a grassroots website, FantasySportsForAll.com. I encourage you to go there now, while reading this.

The site fulfills two key goals:

  1. Collect petition signatures from fantasy players, affirming their right to play fantasy sports the way they want.
  2. Make it simple for fantasy players to contact the appropriate people in their states to assist with grassroots campaigns.

Here is what we are asking you to do to support our industry:

  1. Inform everyone who enjoys fantasy sports about the FantasySportsForAll.com web site, so they can add their names to the petition and contact lawmakers.
  2. Get the word out using email, tweets, and Facebook posts. Sample text is below.

Again, the FSTA’s initiatives will only be as successful as the support you provide. We don’t have access to your customers. The entire industry is depending on your efforts to get the word out.

In this pivotal moment for our industry, please help give our players a voice to make sure that fantasy sports remain for all.

EXAMPLE FACEBOOK POSTS
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Across the country, the fantasy community is teaming up to protect the game we love. Add your name to protect #FantasyForAll today: http://bit.ly/1knd15t

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Say you’re on our team—add your name to this #FantasyForAll petition to protect fantasy sports today: http://bit.ly/1knd15t 

Retweet to spread the word—add your name to this #FantasyForAll petition to protect fantasy sports now: http://bit.ly/1knd15t

Take action—protect the game we all love. Sign this #FantasyForAll petition today: http://bit.ly/1knd15t

Join us in protecting #FantasyForAll—sign this petition today to say you stand with the fantasy community: http://bit.ly/1knd15t

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Absolute Must Have

Sep 09, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) runs the ball after a catch against the Indianapolis Colts during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field. Chicago defeats Indianapolis 41-21. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

For this first time all season, we have a WR as the #Absolute Must have for DraftKings this week and that player is Alshon Jeffery. He comes in with a projection of 25.27 and a +5.39 in our projection to spend ratio. While the Rams defense has been worthwhile from a fantasy perspective, they do give up a ton of yards and given that Jeffery is averaging 14 targets per game over his last 3, look for another 10+ catch and 100+ yard performance this week.  For FanDuel we have Aaron Rodgers as the top Must Have for week 10. Given that he is coming off playing two of the best defenses in all of football the past two weeks, on the road, he goes home to play the terrible Lions. I do suspect that move than 25% of the field will have him this week but he isn’t event he most expensive QB so he should be considered across the board.

***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher


Absolute Notable

For DraftKings we have Derek Carr as the top overall #AbsoluteNotable for week 10. He comes off a 3 game run of at least 300 yards and 3 TD’s in each of these games but this week he has the Vikings. The Vikings are playing at a high level right now but don’t forget that people are still putting up yards on them, just not rushing yards. If you need a cheap QB, Carr comes in at $5,800 and is projected to outperform this cost by at least 1.39 points this week and will get you 20 points for sure. Moving onto FanDuel, we have Alex Smith. I know, I know, what am I thinking, they are playing the vaunted Denver defense in Mile High this week. I then ask you if you recall what happened on week 2 in Kansas City? Alex Smith isn’t going to be a QB this week that gets you 30+ points but he is someone that can get you 20+ fantasy points and for the $6,000 cost, he should be one that you consider if you want to have some high cost players this weekend.

***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800


Absolute Sleeper

fanduel

Now our most sought after topic for each week, our Absolute #Sleeper, we have Mohammed Sanu on FanDuel. He comes in with a projection of 8.73 points and the Bengals get the Texans on Monday Night Football. Andy Dalton has been spreading the ball around and the only concern I really have here is that I think this week is going to be the AJ Green show for all the bright lights and so how many balls will get to Sanu? That said, could he get 40 yards and a touchdown, certainly! For DraftKings #Sleeper, DC*3PO has declared Alex Smith as the #1 overall #Sleeper for this week. He is projected at an 18.64 with a salary of only $5,000. I can almost guarantee that Alex Smith will be on less than 5% of peoples entries this week, so think about it. My #1 overall sleeper is Stephon Diggs for this week. He gets to play against the Raiders this week, who just gave up 49 fantasy points to Antonio Brown and it appears that Bridgewater is going to play. Another guy that shows up on our reports for this week is Nate Washington, so if you like to sweat it out on Monday nights, he might be a big boom or bust play this week as well.

Get your full FanDuel Absolutes report for week 10 here.

Ger your full DraftKings Absolutes report for week 10 here.

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Green Bay -13 over the Lions
  • Cincinnati -12 over Houston
  • New England -8.5 over the Giants

This week is the first one since the Patriots bye week that they don’t lead the Heavy Favorites category for this weekend’s contests. Instead we have the Packers over the Lions but 13 points. I’m on the Packers this week as they get to head home and get the 1-7 Lions. Look for Rodgers to have a confidence building game and he will throw for 4 TD’s in this game. I have the Packers rolling in this one 44 – 16. Next we have the Bengals on Monday Night over the Texans by 12 points. I recall a few playoff games where the Texans have owned Andy Dalton and JJ Watt has scored two TD’s on the defensive side of the ball against he Bengals. That said, this year is quite a bit different so I’m on the Bengals and I will give the points as I think this is another blowout win for the Bengals, 34 – 13. Last we have the Patriots by 8.5 points over the Giants. This is a game that most people will be on the Patriots as the Giants just haven’t looked great this season. Instead they have been a set of rolling hills and if you were to measure their wave calculation, you wouldn’t even know the direction of the current this season. I like the Patriots to win but I would take the Giants and the points as I think Gostkowski hits a couple of late field goals and the Patriots survive a close one 33 – 30.

Top Players To Consider based on these matchups:

  • Rob Gronkowski (Might be #1 overall this week in daily fantasy)
  • Tom Brady (projected as #2 QB this week)
  • Aaron Rodgers (projected #1 overall QB this week)
  • James Starks (In the starting lineup and Lions giving up over 18 points per game to the starting RB over their last 3 games)
  • AJ Green (Hasn’t been involved much but this is show time, look for a big game)
  • Nate Washington (Super cheap play this week that will get 10+ targets in this game as the Texans will throw it over 40 times in this contest)

Top Overall Game Over/Under

No surprise here as the Patriots and Giants have the top over/under this weekend at 55 points. I don’t think this is high enough as I have already predicted 63 points in this contest. Consider this, the Giants have given up 10 TD’s to the TE position this season with an 86.9 average yards against. Gronkowski didn’t score last week which means that he will score in this contest if you look at his historical performance. In fact he has scored 2 TD’s after coming off a no TD contest 56.8% of the time. Gronkowski is expensive but he is going to be a 30+ fantasy point scorer this week on DraftKings and at least 24 on FanDuel. The Giants have no one that can stop him but they are going to score as well. This means you should take Odell Beckham Jr. The DiRT Canon projection for him this week is 18.1 and that might even be a bit low considering he has been averaging 26.8 over his last 3 games.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is New England projected to give up 302.93
  • Rushing Yards is Washington projected to give up 134.65
  • Overall Yards is Washington projected to give up 424.6

#NailedIt again last week as my last minute start was Big Ben and Antonio Brown combo breaker and had Big Ben finished the contest, I have no doubt he would have been #1 for the week. Brown took that down with ease. So what do we have for this week based on our matchups to exploit. I give you Mark Ingram as my #4 RB for the week that will be taken by less than 5% of the field. I also like Drew Brees again but if you want a QB/TE combo then you have to go with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski or if you want to go cheap and go highend every where else then Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed should lead that charge for you. Last week the Saints gave up 68 fantasy points to the Mariota/Walker combo and this week doesn’t look much different from that perspective. This will be a high scoring contest, exploit that matchup. As for DC*3PO’s top RB to take this week, he has Todd Gurley, rolling the Bears at home where he has averaged over 140 rushing yards. I personally like DeAngelo Williams if he can go this week as he gets the Cleveland rushing defense or James Starks as a very likely sleeper. Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

I wouldn’t recommend any stacks that include the Jets and Bills players for tonight’s contest so the only reason to get in tonight for the NFL would be to join the $5 Millionaire contest on DraftKings because that payout is very high considering the entry fee.

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Top Projections &Toughest Matchups

Based on feedback from you, we are changing this section up just a bit by expanding to all positions. In order to do so we wanted to provide you with some definition behind the data we are providing.Weekly_Top5_wk10

  • DraftKings Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Tops Proj  – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops Proj – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for FanDuel.

At The DiRT Canon, our matchups not only consider what the player’s opponent has given up to a position, we go all the way down to the depth chart position for that player and what that defense has given up to that position.  We also consider, this information for the current season and ever in the past along with incorporating home or away. We have then added our own personal flavor where we don’t bother providing you with players that aren’t going to play or are basically irrelevant so we have established a custom figure of projection for each position that we also filter by. What does this mean? It means that we aren’t going to tell you some third string guys whom have the lowest opponent value for the week but instead we are looking to display players that are expected to at least get you the minimum amount of points needed from that position in order to #Win.  Just click Weekly_Top5_wk10 for the full report. Like information like this, come and sign up today, we will be offering a 7 day trial, just click here.  Enter promo code WIN to get 50% off your first month when you upgrade to our Silver Membership!

Intelligence & Analysis

There are only a handful of projected matchups that should create a set of players that will produce above and beyond their typically output this week. Unlike last week, where we had top WR’s playing bottom 10 pass defenses and the same situation for QB’s, this week is not likely to have the same return. DC*3PO expects the minimum winning score to be under 165 on DraftKings main contest and under 140 for FanDuel. If that holds true you will need to ensure you get at least 4 of the top 9 guys on your roster in order to have a shot a cashing this weekend. So who do we have for this week? Let me kick start your lineup with one QB, one RB, one WR and then a MustHave and I will let you use our Lineup Analyzer™ to finish up the rest of your lineups here and let our system give you some additional recommendations!

The top guy to take this week is Rob Gronkowski. Yes, I know he is expensive but he has scored a TD in the game following a game he did not score in over 76% of the time, he is playing the Giants who give up the 4th most points to TE’s and that is only because they played TB last week or they would still be leading this category. The QB to consider mainly due to price is going to be Kirk Cousins. As of this morning just over 8% of the field is on him already this week, so he might not be a true #Sleeper but he will produce 300+ yards and 2 TD’s. The RB to consider this week is going to be James Stark. He has been inserted into the starting lineup and the Lions are ranked 23rd against the RB’s this season. Combine that with the fact that Starks has gone over 20+ fantasy points in two of his last 3 contests at home, when he got the bulk of the playing time. Last we have the WR to consider this week. You have to go with Allen Robinson this week. He gets the 31st ranked pass defense in the Baltimore Raves and he is averaging 12 targets per game over his last 5. Bortles is gonig to throw for 300+ yards and Robinson as well as Hurns are both going over 100 but DC*3PO shows Robinson having the better chance for a multi touchdown performance.

For full projections for DraftKings go here.

For full projections for FanDuel go here.

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Weather

There is really only two games that have any potential weather for today and that would be in Seattle we have 43 degrees and partly cloudy. Then we have 57 and partly cloudy with a smooth breeze at times in Oakland for the Raiders and Vikings matchup. Personally, I don’t think there are any games that will be affected by weather today so you should be okay to choose from any matchup. For more information just come here.

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top 3 lineups for week 10 on Draftkings:

Experts Picks

DkPicks_wk10

Now we look to provide your FanDuel lineups for the week below:

Logan Cartwright’s Expert Pick

LogansPick_wk10

Public Picks

In this section, we look to provide you with a breakdown of who the public is taking this week. Since this information is not readily available we are using the perfect challenge from nfl.com.

PublicPicks_wk10

Based on the public picks, some guys that you should consider would be Aaron Rodgers, Rob Gronkowski and Carolina’s defense. These guys will be taken by over 30% of the field this weekend.  I would usually state that you should shy away from these guys but for this week, where games are not expected to be very high scoring, these guys you must have.

Come check out the rest NOW.