Teaching You How to #Win – DiRTy Plays Week 9

name of site - hunter thompson styleWeek 9 Absolutes 

Absolute Must Have

It probably comes as no surprise again this week but we have Tom Brady as our top overall ranked player this week and our #AbsoluteMustHave! Brady has spent this entire season on a mission and he hasn’t been anything but perfect along the way. He comes in with at least 26 fantasy points in his last 3 games on DraftKings and he gets the Washington defense at home. Look for yet another solid performance, the only thing you question at this point is, can you afford to take him? I say it is worth having him on at least one of your lineup combinations but you no longer get a cheap Gurley as he tops the RB charts this week and Diggs is no longer under 5,000 either. It will be imperative that you are able to identify one or two sleepers for this week if you go with Brady. His FanDuel projection is 23.55 and 26.54 for DraftKings.

***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher


Absolute Notable

The #AbsoluteNotable for FanDuel this week is EJ Manuel. Tyrod Taylor has come back to practice and it is yet to be determined if Manuel will get to play this week, so be sure to check back on Sunday morning as we look to finalize our lineups for this weekend. That said, Manuel had a solid 20+ point performance in his last outing and the Dolphins gave up over 300 yards on under 20 completions to Taylor in their contest against the Bills earlier this season. For DraftKings, we have Philip Rivers as our #AbsoluteNotable for week 9. He comes in with a solid projection of 25.17 and is our #2 QB for this weekend. Considering that Keenan Allen is gone for several weeks with an injury to his kidney, who is he going to throw to, that is a valid concern? Gates should be a solid option again this week and face it the Bears defense can’t do much to stop anyone this season. Rivers is always solid on Monday nights and if you like stressing out all day on Sunday, this is your guy!

***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800


Absolute Sleeper

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Now for our last but most valuable section for today’s weekly post, it’s our #AbsoluteSleeper segment. We have accurately provided you with #Sleepers in every week except week 6. We had Andrews that week and he didn’t show up to do much of anything but every other week, your #Sleeper has gotten at least 10 FanDuel points and 13 DraftKings points. So what do we have for this week, for FanDuel, we have Robbie Gould. He comes in with a projection of 11.36 and gets to play in sunny San Diego on Monday night. The Bears will move the ball, that is certain and so will they score TD’s or just kick field goals, my bet is on field goals. For DraftKings, we have Antonio Gates as our #1 Sleeper. His salary of $5,000 puts him at the top end of our specific segmentation but considering there aren’t many options left for Rivers and the fact that he will throw the ball over 42 times again on Monday night, yet another reason to take Gates and stress out about how much these guys need to produce to #WIN this weekend. My personal #Sleeper for this weekend is Jeremy Langford for the Bears. Wow that is a lot of guys in this game but what can I say, the Bears have no other option at RB and San Diego still gives up the most points to the RB1 position this season. Another strong consideration should be Austin Seferian-Jenkins, if he plays, the Giants will let him catch at least one touchdown, not to mention the Bucs are low on catching talent at this point in the season.

Get your full FanDuel Absolutes report for week 9 here.

Ger your full DraftKings Absolutes report for week 9 here.

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • New England -15 over Washington
  • Cincinnati -12.5 over the Browns
  • New Orleans -9.5 over the Titans

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots yet again lead the heavy favorites segment for this weeks’ Thursday post! Paul Brown Stadium_headshots_originalThey come in red hot, after blowing out what appeared to be a hot Dolphins team and now they get Washington and Kirk Cousins. Washington is coming in off of a bye and one of the best comebacks in their long history. I would take the points in this one as Brady is just red hot and I have zero faith in the Washington offense, even if DeSean Jackson actually plays in this contest. Moving on, we have the Bengals over the Browns by 12.5 points tonight. I am taking the Bengals, giving the points and actually taking the over as well in this one. This shouldn’t even be close but I do expect Barnidge to continue his TD streak and I do believe that you will have a Travis Benjamin siting for one long bomb. I have Bengals crushing however, 37 – 17 with the Bengals having 6 sacks and a touchdown on defense. Last we have the Saints as a 9.5 favorite at home over the lowly Titans. The Titans have just fired their coach and we still aren’t certain if Mariota is going to play in this one. If Mettenberger plays, one thing is for certain, he will throw at least one INT. The reason for that is because he has done it in every game in which he has started and the top defense for the week has played against him in 3 of 8 starts. Does this mean you should take the Saints D….maybe, come back on Sunday to get my final selections.

Top Players To Consider based on these matchups:

  • Tom Brady
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Drew Brees
  • Jeremy Hill
  • Cincinnati Defense

Top Overall Game Over/Under

I might have to change up this section if the Patriots continue to have this locked down and week 9 is no different. This week the over/under for the Patriots and Washington is 52 points. I think this is even low considering that Washington should put up 20 points but I believe the Patriots will produce over 40 points in this game at home. Washington will have no answer for Gronk this weekend and Brady will figure out another WR to hit for big chunks of yardage all game long. Want a sleeper and do I mean sleeper, try out LaFell this weekend. He will get over 9 targets in this game so its just a matter of, can he catch it? I don’t know the answer to that but I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaFell go over 100 yards and a touchdown. Considering the fact that his salary on DraftKings is only $3,200 so think about it but this is very high risk.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is Oakland  projected to give up 317.49
  • Rushing Yards is Chicago projected to give up 133.77
  • Overall Yards is Tampa Bay projected to give up 420.69

Last week as a late start on Sunday morning, I gave you Drew Brees and all he did was get you 47 fantasy points on FanDuel and over 50 on DraftKings. DiRTCanon A.I.This was based on this matchup information so you should be considering this data set each week as there are some golden gems in there. In terms of players to consider, based on week 9 projections, we have Antonio Brown against the Raiders. With Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup, we know one thing and that is that Antonio Brown is going to get at least 10 targets. The Steelers are in need of a win and Oakland is pretty hot coming in this week. Look for a fairly high scoring contest. As for the Bears run defense, I’m not on a San Diego back all that much but if you wanted to take one it would be Woodhead. He has been the only consistent player, outside of Rivers this season and with the Chargers banged up all over the place, look for a 20+ point performance from Woodhead. Last we have the Tampa Bay Buccs projected to give up the most yards this weekend. Do I really think that Eli could outperform what he accomplished last week, NO! Does that mean I wouldn’t take him this week, that answer is also NO. I like the matchup and the Buccs have given up 397 passing yards or more in each of their last 3 games with one of those being against Kirk Cousins.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

Here is Thursday stack to consider for DraftKings if you are going to include tonight’s game:ThursdayNightStack

  • This lineup averages 154.6
  • This lineup is projected to score 133.1
  • The needed score to cash in the $5 Thur Kickoff has averaged 132.6
  • The confidence rating for this lineup is 54.7%
  • I predict this lineup will have over 150 points after tonight’s game

We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or DM us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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Top Projections &Toughest Matchups

Based on feedback from you, we are changing this section up just a bit by expanding to all positions. In order to do so we wanted to provide you with some definition behind the data we are providing.weekly_top5_wk9

  • DraftKings Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Tops Proj  – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops Proj – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for FanDuel.

At The DiRT Canon, our matchups not only consider what the player’s opponent has given up to a position, we go all the way down to the depth chart position for that player and what that defense has given up to that position.  We also consider, this information for the current season and ever in the past along with incorporating home or away. We have then added our own personal flavor where we don’t bother providing you with players that aren’t going to play or are basically irrelevant so we have established a custom figure of projection for each position that we also filter by. What does this mean? It means that we aren’t going to tell you some third string guys whom have the lowest opponent value for the week but instead we are looking to display players that are expected to at least get you the minimum amount of points needed from that position in order to #Win.  Just click Weekly_Top5_wk9 for the full report. Like information like this, come and sign up today, we will be offering a 7 day trial, just click here.  Enter promo code WIN to get 50% off your first month when you upgrade to our Silver Membership!

Intelligence & Analysis

The first half of the season is in the books and now we enter the back half of the NFL season. This means it is crunch time for you to #Win from this point forward. Let’s breakdown this weekends games and players you should be looking to take. Starting with the QB position, this position has been interesting as last week was the first time where you had to have one of the top 3 QB’s or you weren’t going to be in the money. In most weeks, you could have almost taken any QB and still have a shot at winning so long as you had 3 of the top 5 skill positions. For this week, it appears that we will be back to the norm in terms of QB need but our top 3 QB’s are Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees. I don’t think there is much difference between these three guys but Brees has the most difficult matchup in terms of passing yards against.  Personally, if the weather holds up Jameis Winston is a very cheap but viable option this weekend. Another sleeper to consider would be Tyrod Taylor as he is 3rd in overall scoring for players that are eligible for the Sun-Mon contests and with a DraftKings price of only $5,300, he should be one to take a strong look at as he comes back from a knee injury and almost 3 full weeks of rest. Moving onto the RB position, Gurley is no longer a cheap #MustHave for this week as his salary tops the FanDuel RB’s but he is still someone that you should consider. Freeman gets the 30th ranked rushing defense, combined with the fact that he is averaging 5 receptions per game over his last 5, he will get at least 20 points with a shot at the 30’s this weekend. Looking for a #Sleeper in the RB position, there are four cheap options, none of which pose much risk in terms of needing to achieve that 20 point threshold. These players are Darren McFadden, Jeremy Langford, Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. In terms of rank order for confidence rating, Williams #1, McFadden #2, Langford #3 and Steward #4. Let’s finish with the WR position. Julio Jones is leading the NFL in receiving yards and while he isn’t as productive on FanDuel, he is a must start on DraftKings because he simply gets 9.5 catches per game. Some cheap guys that you should consider this weekend are #1 Stephon Diggs, #2 Tavon Austin, #3 Tedd Ginn, #4 Rishard Matthews. DC*3PO has Alshon Jeffrey as the #1 overall WR this weekend and I have to agree. Taking Julio with Alshon and one of these sleepers, should get you around 85+ fantasy points at your WR position and put you in position to take home some serious cash! Still unsure on finalizing your lineup? Come and check out our Lineup Analyzer™ here and let our system give you some additional recommendations!

For full projections for DraftKings go here.

For full projections for FanDuel go here.

 

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Weather

Today we have two potential games with some weather to deal with, both of which will entertain teams from the NFC South division. Today we have light rain in the forecast for both Tampa Bay vs. Giants and Falcons vs 49ers. How does this impact you fantasy selections? Let’s take a peak at this from the historic perspective. The Bucs haven’t won a game with rain in over 5 season, however, they have thrown for over 300 yards approximately 36.7%. I still like Winston as a #Sleeper QB for today. Moving onto the Falcons contest, we have some light rain in the forecast there as well. I don’t think that changes the game plan for the DiRTy Birds as they will most likely let Freeman lose. I like Freeman even more considering this impact with a projection of over 20 on DraftKings, he is a #MustHave this week. For more information just come here.

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top 3 lineup for week 9, main contest on Draftkings:

Experts Picks

DraftKings_wk9

Now we look to provide your FanDuel lineups for the week below:

Logan Cartwright’s Expert Pick

FanDuel_wk9

Public Picks

In this section, we look to provide you with a breakdown of who the public is taking this week. Since this information is not readily available we are using the perfect challenge from nfl.com.

Public_Picks_wk9

Some personal thoughts on players to consider today would be #1 Sleeper Stevie Johnson for the Chargers. Considering that Allen was at 12 targets per game, they have to go somewhere and why not to a slot guy. He’s only $3,200 on DraftKings so he is certainly a high consideration. #2 I have Brandon Myers for Tampa Bay. The Giants get killed by the TE each and every week and with Jenkins most likely to sit out this contest i.e. not official just yet, look for Myers to come in and have a big role today. Our top QB in terms of big play potential is Big Ben at 68% chance of throwing a pass of over 50 yards today. That means the Big Ben and Antonio Brown combo breaker is a very good candidate for today as well.

Come check out the rest NOW.