Teaching You How to #Win – DiRTy Plays NFL Week 11

name of site - hunter thompson styleWeek 11 Absolutes 

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Absolute Must Have

We are back on the QB train this week as our Absolute’s have come out for week 11. I think it is important to note that our injuries aren’t made official as well as official roster spots until Friday afternoon. This means significant impact to our projections, analysis and reports, so be sure to check back each day as we breakdown all of the relevant information as it stands that day. So our top #AbsoluteMustHave for both FanDuel and DraftKings is Aaron Rodgers. I know, most of you are going what they hell are you talking about, the Packers are on a decline, they couldn’t beat the Lions at home and now they get the division leading Vikings this week. Let me breakdown some information that the NFL media members aren’t privy to or should I say, they choose not to point this information out because that doesn’t lead to a top story line to discuss on the 15 debate shows on ESPN this week. First, while the Packers only put up 16 points last week against the Lions, Rodgers threw the ball 61 times, including 21 attempts to Adams. He ended up throwing for over 330 yards and two touchdowns. So in our daily fantasy world on FanDuel and DraftKings, Rodgers produced over 25 fantasy points on a week where only one QB went over 30 and that was Kirk Cousins. The only game this season that Rodgers has produced less than 20 fantasy points on either DraftKings or FanDuel was the game against the Broncos a few weeks ago. The Vikings just gave up 320 yards and two touchdowns to Derek Carr last week and have given up over 30 points to Aaron Rodgers in 5 of their last 6 contests. Rogers projection for both sites is 21.42 and he is the #3 QB overall this week. If you are willing to spend the dough on the QB, he is a guy to consider for sure!

***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher


Absolute Notable

Week 11 gets to be interesting as you get into our #AbsoluteNotable for FanDuel as we have Alex Smith coming in this week with a projection of 17.79. Smith gets the Chargers this week and while they have only won a couple of games, it isn’t due to their 18th ranked pass defense, it is their 32nd ranked rush defense. Could Smith be your guy this week on FanDuel, potentially but I suggest you view the rest here and take another look. Moving onto DraftKings we have, Philip Rivers coming in with a top QB projection for the week of 24.82. Look it is simple, Rivers is a mid salary guy that over produces for his salary 8 out of 10 times. They are coming off a bye week, playing a divisional opponent who is on a hot streak and so I expect Rivers to have a solid game and should be considered in all formats this week.

***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800


Absolute Sleeper

fanduel

The most sought after topic each week as we get your feedback, questions, comments and other avenues of suggested response and that is our #AbsoluteSleeper. DC*3PO has Ryan Tannehill on DraftKings this week and Santos, the kicker for the Chiefs in week 11. Tannehill is a sneaky pick as the public will not be on him as Romo is expected to make his return this Sunday and he is pretty cheap. Can they get some big plays or will they pound the run game on the 30th ranked rushing defense of the Cowboys. I suspect that Miller will have a much bigger day than Tannehill this week. For FanDuel, they have just changed their salary algorithm for lower performing position players to be $5,200 from $5,100 so we will be making that modification. There is only one guy to consider at that price range on FanDuel and that is Ted Ginn Jr. We have him projected at 9.1 this week on FanDuel, the Redskins have given up the 3rd most points to the WR1 position over the past 3 weeks and someone has to catch the ball for Carolina. That all said, you want to know who I’m taking this week, simple, I’m taking Charcandrick West this week on DraftKings for sure. His $4,500 salary and the fact that he has had over 30 touches in three straight contests, since the Charles injury. He also has put up over 25 fantasy points in each of these games but they played in London a few weeks ago and we weren’t sure about him after Charles went down. Last week has sold the deal for me with the eye test, combined with a cheap salary and the 32nd rank rushing defense of the Chargers, this guy is a must play. On FanDuel, I’m taking Karlos Williams. He has a salary of $5,700 and has scored at least one touchdown in every game he has played in this season. McCoy looked great in their last game but Williams still got in the end zone and on FanDuel, touchdowns are much more of a concern versus DraftKings. DraftKings, you can take Julio Jones every week because he will get 10+ catches and 130 yards, that get’s you 23 points which you need at least 20 from each of your WR’s to have a shot at the money versus FanDuel, that only gets you an 18 where Karlos Williams might run for 50 yards, 30 yards receiving and get 2 touchdowns, he is now a 20. Think about your strategy here and consider these tid bits later on in the week as you look to finalize your lineups. Come back on Sunday and get our expert selections along with the full weather report and key injury impacts for this weekend’s contests!

Get your full FanDuel Absolutes report for week 11 here.

Ger your full DraftKings Absolutes report for week 11 here.

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Seattle -13.5 over San Francisco
  • Carolina -8.5 over Washington
  • New England -7.5 over Buffalo

I don’t think that any of these really shock anyone here but let’s break them down a bit further, in terms of how they will impact your daily fantasy decisions. First we have the Seattle game. This game was ugly the first time around and I don’t expect for it to be much different here. The one thing that most people don’t know about the 49ers is that their defense has been pretty tough this year. They are ranked in the top half of the league in almost every fantasy category. Combine that with the fact that they sacked Russell Wilson 4 times in their last contest, this proves to be a defensive game. So who should you consider in this matchup, only the Seattle Defense. You could take a risk on the 49ers D but there are better options and if Seattle is going to make a push for the playoffs, it will start this weekend against the 49ers and this means their defense has to be at the top of their game. Next we have the Panthers taking on Washington. While Washington is playing better of late and the infamous, “You Like That” is hitting main stream streets now, let’s face it, the Panthers are undefeated and should win this game pretty handily. Washington has given up a ton in the run game of late and that is what the Panther do. The only real player to take in this game is Cam Newton. It might be Greg Olsen day but he has been an extreme roller coaster this year and personally, I think this is a run game where Cam and Stewart will handle most of the load. Last we have the Patriots and Bills on Monday Night. The Bills made a 4th quarter surge in their previous contest with the Pats and the Pats are dwindling down from a personnel perspective but I’m taking Tom Brady until he proves me wrong. The key guy in this game is going to be Amendola. Expect the public to be all over him in daily fantasy this week but that probably means so should you. You won’t find a cheaper option that should get over 12 targets this week and if he converts them in the pass game, he could be a 20 point player that allows for you to possibly get a Julio Jones or Rob Gronkowski.


Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected matchup for this week according to Vegas is Detroit and Oakland, coming in at 48.5 points this weekend. I like this game to be a high scoring affair, so what does this mean to your daily fantasy selections you ask? Matt Stafford has a big play potential rating of 70% this weekend against the Raiders and this has been a very pointed key performance indicator that most of you don’t even know we offer. Come check it out for DraftKings here and you will see who has the best shot at a 50 yard play or more this week. As for Oakland, I think this might be the week of Amari Cooper but DC*3PO is all over Crabtree this week. The main reason for that is because Crabtree has lead the team in targets at 11.5 over the past 4 games and proves to be a crutch when Carr is under pressure. Carr is also a strong consideration but Stafford saves you an extra $900 on DraftKings this week. Latavius Murray is another sneaky play this week. He isn’t consider a #Sleeper but that is only because he is just above our lower salary threshold, where his value is pretty high this week. Last, you have Megatron, he will have a good game this week and should get in the end zone at least one time. Look for this game to end 34 – 31 as Oakland squeaks out a road victory.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  Oakland projected (293.4)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  Miami projected (124.76)
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  Oakland projected (412.2)

Matthew Stafford_headshots_195x270So who should you take based off this information, let’s take an inside look at the Oakland defense, since they have showed up for both passing and overall this week. Oakland has been struggling against the pass giving up the 3rd most points to WR1’s over the past 4 games, largely due to the explosion by Antonio Brown and then last week they let AP go for over 200 yards rushing. Detroit is going to run their way to victory so look for the Stafford to Calvin stack to have a big impact and don’t forget the 70% chance that Stafford throws a completed pass over 50 yards this week. On the run defense, you have to take McFadden. You combine McFadden with West and you have now spent a grand total of $9,500 on your two RB positions. That is only 19% of your salary and should produce at least 45 fantasy points. That 45 points would represent 28.8% of needed points to cash this week, which is projected to be 158.62 (based on previous season and current season stats for main contest).

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

I wouldn’t recommend any stacks that include the Titans & Jags players for tonight’s contest so the only reason to get in tonight for the NFL would be to join the $5 Millionaire contest on DraftKings because that payout is very high considering the entry fee.

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Top Projections &Toughest Matchups

Based on feedback from you, we are changing this section up just a bit by expanding to all positions. In order to do so we wanted to provide you with some definition behind the data we are providing.Top5_Projections_wk11

  • DraftKings Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Tops Proj  – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Tops Proj – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for FanDuel.
  • DraftKings Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for DraftKings.
  • FanDuel Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for FanDuel.

At The DiRT Canon, our matchups not only consider what the player’s opponent has given up to a position, we go all the way down to the depth chart position for that player and what that defense has given up to that position.  We also consider, this information for the current season and ever in the past along with incorporating home or away. We have then added our own personal flavor where we don’t bother providing you with players that aren’t going to play or are basically irrelevant so we have established a custom figure of projection for each position that we also filter by. What does this mean? It means that we aren’t going to tell you some third string guys whom have the lowest opponent value for the week but instead we are looking to display players that are expected to at least get you the minimum amount of points needed from that position in order to #Win.  Just click Weekly_Top5_wk11 for the full report. Like information like this, come and sign up today, we will be offering a 7 day trial, just click here.  Enter promo code WIN when you start your FREE TRIAL today!

Intelligence & Analysis

Not unlike last week, we don’t have a ton of top tiered players, playing bottom tiered defenses this week but DC*3PO does project a higher average score over last week. This week, DC*3PO has a projected minimum winning score on DraftKings to be 156.8 as of Friday morning and FanDuel to be 138.4. That said, there are some key players that I want to provide some insight and information for you as I look to kick start your lineups for this weekend. After that, use the detailed custom metric creation reports, such as Big Play Potential and Projection2Spend in order to build your lineup. Last, why not check our Lineup Analyzer™ and see if there are any players you should be considering. Just click here, and then you can pick from FanDuel or DraftKings thereafter. Please note, we have a FREE TRIAL, which is a 7 day trial, that cost you nothing. Enter promo code WIN for additional savings on your full membership.DK_BigPlay

Kick start your lineup with our top 2 RB’s for this week and those are DeVonta Freeman and Adrian Peterson. I like both matchups for these players as they are both projected to be at least 20 fantasy points on DraftKings this weekend. Combine them with Charcandrick West in the Flex position and now you have the building blocks for a winning lineup. Moving onto the WR position, let’s just say if you don’t have Danny Amendola this weekend, you will probably regret it but on Sunday you won’t notice, it will be when the rest of the field laps you on Monday night as Amendola is projected to get 21.4 points when look at our Injury Breakdown analysis here. You should know that our standard projections do not consider injury related information as we have a separate injury projection and impacted player projection in this analysis. So if you are looking for the impact of an injury, be sure to check that out. Last do you want a #Sleeper TE that we predict less than 5% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings and that is Ebron for Detroit. While the Raiders defense has been better against the TE over the past 3 weeks, that is largely due to the TE’s they were playing against and Heath Miller did have a 10 catch performance against them 2 weeks ago. Ebron is only $3,500 this week and slating him at the TE position will allow for you to afford those RB’s as well as a Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins.  Another high end WR to consider this weekend is Dez Bryant. No math will predict him in the top 10 but with Romo coming back and the Dolphins week secondary on the docket, this could prove to be a Dez Bryant coming out party as Dallas looks to make a final push and see if they can get back into the divisional race.

For full projections for DraftKings go here.

For full projections for FanDuel go here.


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