Week 7 Absolutes
Absolute Must Have
Week 7 is upon us and for the 3rd straight week our DraftKings Absolute Must Have is Tom Brady. His Projection for this week is 26.06 and really why not, he has put up 26 points in consecutive weeks but he does get the Jets defense this weekend. They have given him fits in the past and now we get to see if that was because of Rex Ryan or the talent on the Jets defense. Right now, he is about the most consistent play you can make at QB so look for another solid performance from Brady. On FanDuel we have Cam Newton. He comes in with a projection of 23.62 on FanDuel and a plus 5.39 on our projection to spend ratio. This means he only needs to be worth 18.23 to be of value for his salary this weekend. He goes up against the Eagles defense which has been playing lights out of late. With only Olsen to throw to, look for that combo again this weekend but if it were me, I would stick to Brady or look for a cheaper player at QB and avoid Newton this week.
***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher
On DraftKings this week our Absolute #Notable is Cam Newton. He comes in with a pretty cheap salary and that has to be due to the defense he is up against this week. I don’t see the Eagles completely shutting them down but I could see them holding the Panthers in the upper teens which bodes for field goals and not touchdowns. His projection of 23.13 is one of the highest of the week but I suspect he will only get around 18 points and there are cheaper options that will produce much more for you this week. Moving onto FanDuel, we have Josh McCown and his 19.32 projection. What can you say about this guy? Since getting knocked out against the Jets and missing the following week due to concussion protocol, he has been a top 5 QB each week including a week 5 top play, just as we accurately projected. His plus 3.79 value, makes for a strong consideration this week and someone I would consider at this point in the week. Check back on Sunday to get our final analysis.
***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800
For FanDuel our Absolute #Sleeper this week is Stephen Gostkowski. He comes in with an amazing projection of 14.89 and really is there another kicker to consider at this point in the season? I don’t think that there is, he has had at least 2 FG’s in every contest and the Patriots are on a mission, look for this to continue. I like the Rams D on FanDuel as my overall Sleeper and if you are looking for a positional player to consider at this price point, I would suggest Ladarius Green. The Raiders are giving up the most to TE in fantasy this season by a long shot and even with Gates on the field, he is still producing. Combine that with the fact that almost no one will take him when they can take Gates so that might bode well for you in the long run.
For DraftKings we in fact do have Antonio Gates with a projection of 20.47. You already know about his matchup and let’s face it, he is getting it done right now. He is a must play on DraftKings this week! Another player to consider this week is Doug Martin. His salary is only $4,900 this week and he is coming off two weeks where he was the top RB play along with Devonta Freeman prior to his bye week, just sayin’!
***Reminder that Sleepers are salaries under $5,200
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As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:
- Arizona -10 over Baltimore
- New England -10 over the Jets
- St. Louis -7 over Cleveland
Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up this list. We have St. Louis vs. Cleveland with the Rams being favorites by 7 points. I personally think this is crazy. Cleveland is better than people think and McCown is playing very well. This game will most likely come down to a field goal so I like the Browns and the points in this one. New England over the Jets but by 10, are you certain? I like the Jets and the points in this one simply because I believe the Jets have an improved offensive strategy and with that defense they should never lose by 10 points. That said, the Patriots are on a tear right now and this could be a statement game for them to the rest of the AFC but I see this one NE 27 NYJ 23. Last we have the Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens. This is our Monday Night Special and the Ravens come in with the worst passing defense in the league, while the Cardinals have a top 5 passing attack. That doesn’t bode well for the Ravens, look for the Cardinals to win this game ARI 34 and BAL 24. That means give me the push baby. Some players to consider in each of these matchups are as follows:
- Carson Palmer
- Rob Gronkowski
- St. Louis Defense
Top Overall Game Over/Under
This week we have the Cardinals and Ravens as our top Over/Under for the week 7. This shouldn’t come as a surprise with Baltimore giving up tons of points this season, mostly in the passing game. The over is currently at 48 points. I have already stated that I see this game being 34 – 24 with the Cards coming out on top so I’m on the over in this one. I could see Palmer going for over 400 yards in consecutive games, while Steve Smith continues his career ending season with another solid 115 yards and 1 TD. The real question in this game is which receiver should you take for the Cardinals. The answer to that question is both, take Fitzgerald and John Brown because they might both be huge plays. It’s always nice to have a few guys on Monday night when playing daily fantasy, as the winner of the main contests has had at least one guy playing on Monday night in 15 of the last 16 weeks. So a Baltimore/Arizona stack might be something to consider, you just need to confirm the status of Forsett.
Matchups to Exploit
In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.
Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.
- Passing Yards is the Dallas Cowboys at 308.4 yards
- Rushing Yards is St. Louis at 139.96 yards
- Overall is Minnesota at 410.88
Last week I was on Andrews from the Titans but he clearly wasn’t the guy as Miami just steam rolled the Titans last week. He might get another look from me this week as the Titans play against the Falcons, although the Falcons have the #1 Rush defense in terms of yards against so I would only consider Andrews on FanDuel this week as he will probably get at least one touchdown. Now for this weeks stats, we have the Cowboys projected to give up the most passing yards. Eli is coming off a bad game and these two teams typically put up points against each other. He would be my QB play if I wasn’t on Palmer but he might sneak in on one of my later lineups this week. Moving onto the rushing attack for week 7. We show the Rams giving up 139 yards, which would mean Duke Johnson. Both DC*3PO and I are on their opponent, Todd Gurley. The Browns are giving up the most rushing yards per game this season and Jeff Fisher has already shown he wants Gurley to get 30 carries a game. Gurley is still cheap so I would strongly consider him this week. Last we have Minnesota and what can I say, they play Detroit. Stafford and Megatron did show up on the top lineup last week so could it happen, Yes, will it happen, NO! The only guy I like in this contest is Stephon Diggs, lookout for another solid 20 point performance for him on DraftKings. Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!
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Top Projections &Toughest Matchups
- DraftKings Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on DraftKings.
- FanDuel Tops FPPG – Top 5 players for each position based on fantasy points per game on FanDuel.
- DraftKings Tops Proj – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for DraftKings.
- FanDuel Tops Proj – Top 5 players for each position based on TheDiRTCanon current week projection for FanDuel.
- DraftKings Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for DraftKings.
- FanDuel Toughest Matchups – Top 5 players with the toughest matchup, based on TheDiRTCanon opponent value with a minimum projection for the needed score to #Win for FanDuel.
At The DiRT Canon, our matchups not only consider what the player’s opponent has given up to a position, we go all the way down to the depth chart position for that player and what that defense has given up to that position. We also consider, this information for the current season and ever in the past along with incorporating home or away. I have then added my own personal flavor where I don’t bother providing you with players that aren’t going to play or are basically irrelevant so I have established a custom figure of projection for each position that we also filter by. What does this mean? It means that we aren’t going to tell you some third string guys has the lowest opponent value for the week but instead we are looking to display players that are expected to at least get you the minimum amount of points needed from that position in order to #Win. Just click NFL-CurrentSeasonTop5 for the full report. Like information like this, come and sign up today, we will be offering a 7 day trial, just click here. Enter promo code WIN to get 50% off your first month when you upgrade to our Silver Membership!
Based on this week’s report, what I take from this is that we know Brady has been dominant but the Jets defense might be the first to keep him under 20 points in fantasy this season. I like Palmer for both matchup and for projection. I also think this might be the week that Hopkins doesn’t go off and instead you might want to consider ODB and Eli combo. The Rams D looks like a strong play but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider taking Josh McCown. He is ranked in the top 5 projection from us this week and I think he will still put up big yards and a couple touchdowns, the Rams D is a strong consideration because of their special teams and turnover potential. That is a key distinction as you look to evaluate your lineup selections this week, Browns players are still going to be of value this week because the Rams defense does give up yards. My main guy this week is Gurley, look for a 2 TD performance this week! If you want us to review your lineups and get the experts opinion, just click here and submit your request.
As of this morning, we don’t have too much going on for weather as all games in terms of game time weather are concerned will be at 60 degrees or higher. That said, in Tennessee we have some expected drizzle for the game and up in Foxboro, it is raining as of 10 a.m. EST. It is expected to stop for the Pats/Jets game. For more information just come here.
In this section, we look to give you some insight as to who the public is taking by majority for FanDuel and DraftKings this week. Given that FanDuel and DraftKings aren’t allowed to distribute this information until after the games have started, we pull this information from nfl.com and their perfect lineup challenge.
- QB: Tom Brady (26.9%)
- RB: Devonta Freeman (72.3%)
- WR: DeAndre Hopkins (51.6%)
- TE: Rob Gronkowski (40.8%)
- K: Stephen Gostkowski (41.5%
- DEF: Arizona (27.9%)
Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top lineup for week 5, main contest on Draftkings:
Now we look to provide your FanDuel lineups for the week below:
Logan Cartwright’s Expert Pick
Some key information here this morning as you look to set your final lineups for today’s contests is the simple fact that recent news has slated Antonio Gates as a game-time decision. He apparently had an MCL sprain in last week’s game while no attention was given to this injury until late Friday afternoon and now you are stuck with having to decide should I play him or not. If you play multiple lineups, he is worth leaving in one for FanDuel. On DraftKings, the nice thing is you can wait until you know and then you can take him out if you need to if he ends up not going. If he doesn’t go, your options should either be to roll the dice and go with Ladarius Green or you transition to Witten as the Giants are just as terrible about giving up points to the TE as the Raiders are. As you can see we stayed away from Palmer in our expert picks but that is only on a few lineups, we will be playing him on a couple of others. You should roll with the hot hands of Freeman and Hopkins if you can and a cheap but good play is Diggs from Minnesota.
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