DiRTy Plays NFL – Week 1

week1_meme

DiRTy Plays NFL – Week 1


As we kickoff the NFL season, we all know you are looking to become a millionaire, whether you play on Draftkings or FanDuel, we are here to help.  As we look at tournaments to target, build your player profile, we are also going to provide you with our experts’ picks as they bring you #TheBeSTDiRT for building your lineups each and every week.  So let’s breakdown week 1 for Draftkings & FanDuel!
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Absolute Must Have

We know you have been waiting since the end of the NBA season for you Absolute player selections so here we go.  Reminder that this selection is for players with a salary above $7,000.  Kicking off the NFL season your week 1 Absolute Must Have is…..Peyton Manning.  Look we know you are probably thinking of how Peyton ended the season last year struggling but the simple fact is that he has owned the Ravens, including a week 1, 6 Touchdown performance 2 years ago.  The Ravens secondary is suspect, the game is in Denver and Manning loves warm weather.  Look for him to have a big day.  Check out your Draftkings Absolute’s here and your FanDuel Absolute’s here.

Absolute Notable

Onto our mid-level salaried guys, we have our Notables section.  This is for players with a salary between $5,300 and $6,900.  Our Draftkings Absolute Notable for week 1 is Jay Cutler.  He is actually our second highest projected player this week, even with a banged up wide receiver group, Green Bay’s defense cannot be trusted.  This game should be a shootout and Cutler is going to throw and throw often.  The Absolute Notable for FanDuel is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Jets have a new receiving core and a new coaching scheme, the Browns defense should be stout but look for Fitzy to have a decent game with good value for his salary.

Absolute Sleeper

Our Absolute Sleeper section looks for guys that have a salary of $5,100 and under.  This obviously includes all defenses but coming in as our Absolute Sleeper for week 1 on Draftkings is the Buffalo Bills defense.  Back in May, I predicted that the Bills defense would shut down Andrew Luck for their season opener and our data is here to show it.  The Bills are our highest projected defense for week 1 and face it, Luck throws picks and the Colts offensive line is terrible, look for several sacks and 4 Int’s.  For you season long folks, Luck will be fine but not for week 1.  For FanDuel we have Brian Hoyer as our Absolute Sleeper.  The Chiefs have a great defense and Eric Berry is back but Hoyer is efficient and should get you around 15 fantasy points for cheap.

December 30, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2) looks for an open receiver against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati won the game 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

A guy that the data simply won’t show yet is Tyrod Taylor.  He is very cheap and should have excellent production against the Colts D.  It also looks like all the other sites are on him as well but just know, we had it first and will continue to provide you with the best guys each and every week.  As the Greenie says, back and better than EVER!

 

Heaviest Favorites

Moving onto our next Bullet, we have our Heaviest Favorites for the week.  As of today we have the top three games of New England at a 7.5 point favorite over the Steelers, Green Bay at 7 points over Chicago and Dallas, 7 points over the Giants.  Personally, I would take the points and the Pats, after all the off-season controversy, look for Brady to have one of THOSE nights tonight and put up a huge game.  Green Bay and Chicago should be a shootout with Green Bay having a bit more firepower, scoring last and taking down the Bears 35 – 28.  Now onto Dallas.  Had Pierre-Paul not blown his finger off, I might have had the Giants with the points on this one but that defense is terrible and Dez Bryant owns the Giants.  Dallas will win big on week 1, 38 – 21.  Odell Beckham Jr. will have a big day as well but he will not catch a three fingered pass in this one.

Top Overall Game Over/Under

The top Over/Under game of the week is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia.  The Eagles come into Atlanta on Monday night and combined the current line is 55 total points.

November 20, 2011; Atlanta, GA, USA; A general view of the opening kick off between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tennessee Titans at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Titans 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I think they are going to blow that out of the water.  Julio Jones will have a huge night and should be considered for both FanDuel and Draftkings this week as there is NO ONE in the Eagles secondary that can stop that man, look for him to have a night like he did against Green Bay last year before going out injured in the 4th quarter.  The Eagles will score as well but Dan Quinn has the Falcons defense playing opportunistic ball during the pre-season as they lead all starters in turnover creation during that time.  I have Falcons 38 and the Eagles 34.

 

Toughest QB Matchup

In this segment, I am going to highlight for you the top three, toughest matchups for QB’s for the upcoming week.  This week we have Ryan Fitzpatrick as our #3 toughest matchup.  As we indicated earlier the Browns defense should be pretty good this year but their offense is terrible.  We have the Cleveland defense giving up 12.82 fantasy points per game to the QB position, based on last year’s results.  Coming in at #2, we have Nick Foles.  No surprise here as Foles is playing against the Seahawks defense.  Seattle only gave up 12.31 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s last year, look for that to continue this week.  Now for #1, we have Alex Smith.  With an opponent value of 11.69, Smith is going up against JJ Watt this week, in Houston.  Smith does have Maclin now so we will see how that turns out but look for more running in this game from the Chiefs.

Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week.  If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.  Here we go, coming in at number one for pass defense this week, the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens secondary is terrible and I already told you that Peyton Manning lights them up and this week will be no different.  Take Manning and you will get solid production this week.  The run defense to exploit this week is the Chicago Bears.  This means Eddie Lacy is going to have a big day if you can afford him take him, just keep in mind that he doesn’t typically catch too many balls and that is why we have Forte out performing Lacy this week on Draftkings.  Last but not least we have the Atlanta Falcons.  I have already told you that the Eagles and Falcons should be high scoring this week and Vegas agrees but this information is based on last year.  Last year the Falcons defense was horrific, look for that to change but you won’t see it in the stats until after Chip Kelly and company leave the Georgia Dome.

QB Selections

Our top 3 QB’s for this week in order of projected score is Peyton Manning #1, Jay Cutler #2 and Drew Brees #3.  Where is Aaron Rodgers you ask, well unlike all of the ESPN analysts, we go by the numbers and the numbers show Peyton Manning_headshots_250Rodgers not needing to throw as much with Lacy having solid production and we do consider Jordy Nelson a major loss to this offense.  Look don’t get too crazy here, Rodgers is #4 and Luck is #5 but I’m a statistician by trade and the numbers say Manning this week.  That said, I don’t sit in the back corner office starring at my computer screen all day, subjectivity comes into play here and that’s why I say start Tyrod Taylor this week, you won’t regret it and you might actually win big money this week.

For full QB projections for Draftkings go here.

For full QB projections for FanDuel go here.

Public Picks

This is a new segment for us to cover this year.  Currently FanDuel and Draftkings won’t tell you who the public is on for this week’s contests.  There is a reason for that from their perspective but from ours, we love it.  While we cannot tell you specifically which site has which figures as that would violate our partnership agreement with each company, we can tell you based on the NFL.com, Perfect Lineup challenge, who the public is on.  Yet another reason why you only need to come to our site for all of your Daily Fantasy information.

Publicpicks_wk1

QB – Aaron Rodgers 46.3%

RB – Adrian Peterson 51.8%

WR – Dez Bryant 47.0%

TE – Jimmy Graham 18.1%

K – Mason Crosby 15.9%

DEF – Seattle 32.9%

Can you take all of these and still fill out a lineup, probably not but come check out our lineup analyzer and build your winning lineup with our high quality analysis here.

Hottest Players

Obviously the season is just starting but in the future I will provide you with the top 5 players for both FanDuel and Draftkings scoring for each position.  Check back next Thursday for this information.

Players to Exploit

For some additional players to look at this week, there should be no surprises here but the top 2 running backs for this week are Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles.

Jan 13, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) runs after a catch in the third quarter of the NFC divisional playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 30-28. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Both should produce well but I personally like Demarco Murray against the Falcons for quite a bit cheaper.  Moving onto wide receivers, we have D.Thomas and ODB.  Both players will have big games and should score at least one touchdown but I’m on Julio Jones.  He has the potential for going for 200 yards, 12 catches and 2 touchdowns.

 

 

Weather

If you are worried about weather for week 1, what can I say…it’s still summer!

 

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win.  I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and here very soon we will have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think.  Well here are two lineups I have down for week 1, main contests for Draftkings:

DK_line2_91315DK_line1_91315

Logan Cartwright has contributed his top FanDuel lineup for the week below:

FD_Logan_lineup_91315

Come check out the rest NOW.