NFL Week 7 Retrospectacle: Injury-Prone Plays Aren’t Worth the Risk

Should you depend on injury-prone players in fantasy football. Not during NFL Week 7, and Eric Mack has the proof as to why you shouldn’t.

Foster, Australian for injured. We don’t mean to make light of Arian Foster’s latest injury misfortune, but his tales of woe are a potential teaching moment for fantasy footballplayers.

Players might not have a chronic injury, but some who are just chronically injured.

“Just a routine play,” Foster said of his Achilles’ tear that ends his season and might end his career, per the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain. “I made a cut, and it gave out. It’s not good. That’s life, man. You keep fighting.”

When Foster was being drafted in season-long leagues around Round 8 with his ominous preseason groin injury, we wrote it would be just a matter of time before something else hamstrung Foster. There are players who just cannot stay healthy, it seems……(continue reading)

Source: NFL Week 7 Retrospectacle: Injury-Prone Plays Aren’t Worth the Risk

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Chalk – New England Patriots failing to cover among worst bad beats of the weekend

ESPN Chalk’s Rob Nelson recaps the worst bad beats of the weekend, including a tough break for bettors who had the St. Louis Rams against the Green Bay Packers.

Source: Chalk – New England Patriots failing to cover among worst bad beats of the weekend

Marcus Stroman starts ALCS Game 3 for Toronto | bluejays.com

TORONTO — Marcus Stroman loves these situations. Small in stature, but big in confidence, the Blue Jays starter craves the spotlight and wants his team to trust in him completely, even as Toronto’s season has been pushed to the brink of a long winter.

Source: Marcus Stroman starts ALCS Game 3 for Toronto | bluejays.com

What You Need To Know To #win: #CollegeGameDay

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Wanna watch the best catch of 2015 so far?!

1. Shades of Prothro

Sure Auburn played Kentucky earlier on Thursday Night and we’ll get to that…but…wow.  What a beat down Stanford dished out to UCLA.  The game was over at halftime and this catch was the highlight of the game in the third quarter, on a trick play from mid-field.  The story is Stanford and Christian McCaffrey – Stanford for reeling off 8 in a row, making a case for a playoff spot and having us all wonder what happened at Northwestern – Christian McCaffrey for gaining 369 total yards and 4 TD’s!  If you watched it live, then you saw one of the best performances of the year by ANY college football player.  It’s just too bad no one really did.

  • RB McCaffrey’s historic night powers Stanford past UCLA, into playoff mix: When Andrew Luck returns to Stanford in the summer, he likes to tease strength coach Shannon Turley about making sure the Cardinal program remains a meritocracy. For those of us who didn’t score high enough on the SAT verbal, Luck essentially means that the essence of the Stanford program is rooted in the belief that opportunities should be earned as opposed to gifted. In short, production trumps hype……(continue reading)

  • Game Recap | Auburn 30, Kentucky 27:  It was right there for Kentucky. Down three at home to Auburn, a little more than a minute to go, first down near midfield after a 23-yard Garrett Johnson catch. But then it was over, a 30-27 Tigers win at Commonwealth Stadium.  Seemingly sitting pretty in those final moments……(continue reading)


cfb_week7

2. Battle of Midway

It’s the middle of the season and big conference matchups dot the landscape of college football.  Several undefeated teams take on huge tasks to stay unbeaten this Saturday and DC*3PO has chosen these games to see if we can do better than last week’s 70% ATS – so Let’s Get It On!         (h/t Matt Brown)

Morning

  • No. 17 Iowa(-2.5) at No. 20 Northwestern – Noon, ABC/ESPN2 – It is possible that nobody has a better path to an undefeated season than Iowa. The Hawkeyes managed to beat rival Iowa State this year, they beat Pitt on a 57-yard field goal and they beat Wisconsin in a 10-6 Big Ten slugfest. They are 6-0, with the remaining schedule featuring Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska. This week they get the Wildcats, who just lost 38-0 to Michigan and rank 118th in yards per play on offense. Everything seems to be setting up perfectly for an Iowa team that has been mired in mediocrity for the last five years.  Still scratching my head on Northwestern beat Stanford.
    • Iowa 17.25  –  Northwestern 23.35  –  65.95%

  • West Virginia at No. 2 Baylor(-21) – Noon, Fox – TCU is Baylor’s chief rival now, and beating the other Texas schools is also hugely important to the Bears. But West Virginia has become something of a pseudo-rival since joining the Big 12. In 2012, West Virginia famously beat Baylor 70-63 in a game that featured 1,507 total yards. In 2013, Baylor won 73-42. Last year, West Virginia stunned the No. 4 Bears 41-27, finding a way to limit the prolific Baylor passing offense — something nobody has done this season. West Virginia is the best defense Baylor has faced, by far, and yet the Mountaineers still rank a pedestrian 48th in yards per play allowed, and they’re missing their best player, safety Karl Joseph, who is out for the rest of the season.
    • West Virginia 26.65  –  Baylor 36.55  –  71.75%

  • No. 13 Ole Miss(-10.5) at Memphis – Noon, ABC/ESPN2  Say hello to the biggest home AltX.Logo.whitegame in Memphis history. Then Tigers are a perfect 5-0, they still have coach Justin Fuente before he inevitably ends up taking a bigger job and they have a terrific quarterback in Paxton Lynch. On Saturday afternoon, on national TV, they host a nearby SEC “rival” that they’ve defeated only 10 of 60 times. Memphis last beat Ole Miss in 2004, and now both teams are as good as they’ve been in a while. This was the case last year too, though, when Ole Miss took care of the Tigers 24-3.
    • Ole Miss 34.45  –  Memphis 25.05  –  72.3%

  • Louisville at No. 11 Florida State(-7) – Noon, ESPN  Last year, Louisville — like many other teams — came so close to ending Florida State’s unbeaten run. At home on a Thursday night, Louisville built a 21-0 lead but lost, thanks in part to the play of running back Dalvin Cook. With Jameis Winston gone, Florida State is more reliant on Cook now, and it’s paying off. He just has to stay healthy as he deals with hamstring issues. Cook has rushed for 792 yards on just 88 carries, becoming a big-play machine. The one concern is that Louisville has the best defense that he’s seen thus far, with a sturdy defensive front that can give FSU’s offensive line trouble — and perhaps finally force an interception from the formerly turnover-prone Everett Golson.
    • L’ville 18.35  –  FSU 30.1  –  76.55%

Afternoon

  • No. 7 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan(-8) – 3:30 p.m., ESPN  The Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has long been a series of streaks. Michigan has dominated the series for the most part, but Michigan State took control in the ’50s and ’60s, and it’s taken control again since Mark Dantonio’s arrival. It’s a new era, however. While Michigan State is undefeated, it has not looked as sharp as its 6-0 record indicates, with close wins over Purdue and Rutgers the last two weeks. So while the Spartans are undefeated and ranked seventh, they are an underdog in the Big House, against a Michigan team that is exceeding all expectations in Jim Harbaugh’s first season.
    • MichiganSt 17.25  –  Michigan 30.4  –  76.3%

  • No. 10 Alabama(-4) at No. 9 Texas A&M – 3:30 p.m., CBS  For two years, Texas A&M harassed Alabama like nobody else with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. The Aggies stunned the Crimson Tide 29-24 in 2012, and they scored six touchdowns in a 49-42 loss in 2013. Then the bottom fell out: Texas A&M’s fast start in 2014 was erased by a three-game midseason losing streak, which ended with a 59-0 humiliation at Alabama. Much of the past year has been spent trying to rebound from the embarrassment, and now the Aggies find themselves unbeaten, 2-0 in the SEC, while Alabama has a loss to Ole Miss on its resume.
    • Alabama 28.95  –  Texas A+M 23.05  –  64%

  • No. 19 Oklahoma(-5) at Kansas State – 3:30 p.m., ABC  In a perfect world, Oklahoma would be able to try to bounce back from its devastating loss to underdog Texas by beating up on, say, Kansas in Norman. Instead it has to travel to Manhattan to face Kansas State, which came so, so close to taking down TCU last week at home. Oklahoma has not lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, but Bill Snyder’s teams are always capable of upsets, especially at home. This year’s team appears likely going to pull one off at some point despite entering the season with lowered expectations and then running into quarterback injury problems. The last two weeks, the Wildcats have lost to undefeated Oklahoma State and TCU by a total of 11 points.
    • Oklahoma 28.2  –  KState 28.45  –  53.9%
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  • Virginia Tech at Miami(-6) – 3:30 p.m., ESPNU  Neither team has been impressive this season, but this old Big East matchup still comes with some importance attached: 1) Every game in the ACC Coastal is important because it’s so wide-open, 2) Al Golden is trying to save his job, 3) Frank Beamer is trying to avoid retirement. Virginia Tech may get QB Michael Brewer back after he broke his collarbone against Ohio State in the opener, but the Hokies are still dealing with the absence of star cornerback Kendall Fuller. Both of these teams are a bit unpredictable right now. Virginia Tech took care of N.C. State after back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Pitt; Miami has lost back-to-back games to Cincinnati and Florida State and has had a recent tendency to collapse after getting beat by the Seminoles.
    • VaTech 25.65  –  Miami 27.5  –  54.05%

  • Nebraska at Minnesota(-2) – 3:30 p.m., ESPN2  Melvin Gordon’s 400-yard game probably could not be survived by Bo Pelini, but a game later Minnesota sealed his fate with a 28-24 win in Lincoln. It’s one of many close losses that have plagued the Cornhuskers, regardless of head coach. They lost by four to the Golden Gophers late in the 2014 season under Pelini. They lost by three in the Holiday Bowl to USC under interim coach Barney Cotton. And now, under Mike Riley, they’ve lost four games by 11 points, on a Hail Mary, an overtime interception, a last-minute touchdown after poor clock management and a last-second field goal. A 2-4 start is horrifying for a Nebraska team that has lost exactly four games seven years in a row, and it comes with both positives and negatives.
    • Nebraska 23.15  –  Minnesota 23.75  –  63.95%

Prime Time

  • No. 8 FU at No. 6 LSU(-9.5) – 7 p.m., ESPN – Florida lost its starting quarterback to a one-year suspension, but Will Grier’s absence doesn’t necessarily take the Gators out of the SEC title hunt. They still hold a two-game advantage over Georgia and Tennessee in the East, and they still have one of the nation’s best defenses. In fact, if anybody can finally slow down Leonard Fournette, it’s Florida, with players like end Jonathan Bullard and linebacker Antonio Morrison leading an impressive front.
    • FU 23.55  –  LSU 28.85  –  66.05%

  • Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State(-17) – 8 p.m., ABC  Conventional wisdom would say that Ohio State’s defensive line will dominate this game, and the Buckeyes will win relatively comfortably in a night game at home. Conventional wisdom is probably accurate. Penn State’s offensive line has yet to have a repeat of its meltdown in the Sept. 5 loss to Temple, but it’s still up and down, and quarterback Christian Hackenberg still has issues handling pressure. Given the presence of players like Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington and Darron Lee, among many others, in Ohio State’s front seven, there’s a good chance that the Buckeyes stifle the Nittany Lions, force mistakes and win going away.
    • Penn St 16.6  –  OhioSt 30.4  –  76.75%

  • USC at No. 14 Notre Dame(-7) – 7:30 p.m., NBC  It’s been a tumultuous week for USC,AltX.Logo.white to say the least. A preseason top-10 team, USC lost at home to Washington 17-12 last Thursday. On Sunday, Steve Sarkisian reportedly showed up for work drunk and was placed on leave. On Monday, he was fired while on his way to check into a treatment facility,according to ESPN. Now, USC is trying to move forward under interim coach Clay Helton, the offensive coordinator. It must do so against its cross-country nemesis, going to South Bend to visit a one-loss Notre Dame team still clinging to playoff hopes. Notre Dame has had its own issues with a bad run of injury luck, but it has held together nicely, staving off Navy’s option attack last week after a heartbreaking loss at Clemson.
    • USC 27.75  –  NotreDame 32.95  –  64.1%

  • Missouri at Georgia(-16) – 7:30 p.m., SEC Network  Florida has built a two-game cushion in the SEC East, and thus Georgia desperately needs to stop the bleeding at home against a struggling Missouri offense. The Bulldogs will have to move on without injured running back Nick Chubb, which is a huge loss, although Sony Michel is a budding star who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and was a highly regarded recruit. This will be a stiff test, as Missouri continues to play terrific defense, giving up very little on the ground this season.
    • Mizzou 16.3  –  Georgia 29.6  –  79.8%

  • No. 3 TCU(-21) at Iowa State – 7 p.m., ESPN2  There is no reason to expect Iowa State to actually win this game, beyond memories of that one time Iowa State upset a national title contender at home. But there is hope for keeping it close, because TCU’s issues on defense — attrition from last year and several key injuries — have turned both Big 12 road games into shootouts so far. The Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 55-52, and they beat Kansas State 52-45. Both of those teams are better than Iowa State, of course. The Cyclones just lost to Texas Tech 66-31, and while they may point up a similar point total against TCU, they have little hope of slowing down Trevone Boykin, Josh Doctson and the rest of an explosive offense.
    • TCU 40.75  –  IaState 21.45  –  82.95%

  • Boston College at No. 5 Clemson(-15.5) – 7 p.m., ESPNU  Boston College is going to have to actually score points in an ACC game before we predict the Eagles to do so. After losing quarterback Tyler Murphy and their entire offensive line from last season, Boston College has now lost quarterback Darius Wade and running back Jon Hilliman to injuries. In three conference games against Florida State, Duke and Wake Forest, Boston College has allowed two touchdowns. And yet it’s 0-3, because it has scored only seven points. It has already wrapped up the honor of ugliest game of the season after it failed to score on four red zone trips in a 3-0 home loss to Wake Forest.
    • BC 1.8  –  Clemson 33  –  97%

Late Night

  • Arizona State at No. 4 Utah(-6.5) – 10 p.m., ESPN  Utah has moved up to No. 4 in the AP poll, and you can still frame its resume however you’d like. On one hand, Utah beat Michigan (who is much better than expected), California and Oregon (by 42 in Eugene). On the other hand, Michigan was in its first game under a new coach, Cal committed six turnovers and still had a chance to win on the final drive and Oregon is clearly a shell of its former self. Utah has a resume that makes it look like one of the best teams in the country, but a couple losses still feel inevitable. This is a very good team, but it has an average 247Sports recruiting ranking of 47.2 over the last five years. The defense is physical and forcing mistakes, but there’s also a chance that positive turnover luck will even out.
    • ASU 21.2  –  Utah 31.7  –  73.85%

  • Oregon at Washington(-2.5) – 10:30 p.m., ESPN2  Last year’s national runner-up, Oregon is just 3-3 to open the 2015 season, conjuring memories of the 2010 Texas Longhorns, who went 5-7 after losing the BCS title game to Alabama. Last week, Oregon lost to Washington State for the first time since 2006. This week, Oregon will attempt to avoid losing to rival Washington for the first time since 2003. It appears that the 2015 season may give a chance to several teams to exorcise demons against the Ducks, who have run roughshod over most of the Pac-12 for so long. Washington is coming off its 17-12 road upset of USC, and its defense has played really well. Oregon’s running game is still dangerous behind Royce Freeman, but its ability to win depends on quarterback play and whether its secondary can stop anybody. Washington quarterback Jake Browning has potential, but so far the Huskies offense hasn’t scared anyone. Oregon might be able to run the ball to win and regain some confidence.
    • Oregon 20.75  –  UW 32.15  –  75.85%

 

 

Teaching You How to #Win – #NFL Week 6 Favorites/Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Green Bay -11.5 over San Diego
  • New England -8 over Indianapolis
  • Seattle -7 over Carolina

Last week was another solid week of picks.  Nailed the heaviest favorites section and as you can see, we have two of the same teams on this list again, New England and Green Bay. Image result for patriots colts memeWhen the Packers are at home, it’s not the offense this year that has been incredible, it’s the defense. They are getting to the QB on a consistent basis and now get the Chargers coming into town on a short week.  I like the Chargers in this one when given the points but Green Bay should secure victory in this one.  I see this one having more scoring and the Packers pull it out late 33 – 29.  As for the Patriots, what can I say, this should be a blowout for the Patriots again this week. The Colts haven’t played well all season, a very Luck–eh performance against the Titans and then two more division wins by a 40 year old, one of which was on his death bed. The Colts haven’t shown they can stop the run offense by New England since Luck came into the league and this just smells like another Blount kind of day.  Our last game for this segment is the reeling Seahawks against the Panthers. Carolina comes into this game off a bye week and each of the last 3 games that these two have played, Seattle has won it at the end of the game in a low scoring affair.  The Seahawks expect Lynch to play this week and they are at home, so you combine that with their desperate need for a victory to stay relevant this year, I’m taking Seattle to win but Carolina with the spread.  The guys to look out for in these games are as follows:

  • LaGarrette Blount
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Tom Brady
  • Donte Moncrief
  • Randall Cobb
  • Antonio Gates

 


Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have the Patriots as top over/under game of the week yet again.  New England and Indianapolis square off yet again on a Sunday night and this time they are playing for something different.

Sep 15, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; General view of Lucas Oil Stadium during the third quarter during an NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Brady wants revenge for the whistle blow last post season that almost had him sitting out until this game. The over is at 55 for this game and considering that the Patriots have averaged a 29 point victory against the Colts with Andrew Luck as the starter, this is a pretty safe take.  My bold prediction for this week, which I admit, isn’t all that bold, is New England gets 6 TD’s and two field goals to put up 48 points.  The Colts get some late scores and end up with 24.  Blount gets 2 TD’s, Brady throws for 4 TD’s, 2 to Gronk, 1 to Lewis and 1 to Edelman.  Patriots roll and the Colts, well they still need to figure out how to play defense in this league in order to be considered a championship contender.

 

 


Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the San Francisco 49ers at 308.32 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Miami at 143.1 yards
  • Overall is Minnesota at 420.15 yards

I agree that Dolphins D is going to get torched again but by whom you ask? My #1 Sleeper is Antonio Andrews this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings.  Most people don’t know this but Andrews is averaging 13.8 points per game on Draftkings and he gets all the goal line work. I’m not saying that he is going to rush for 200 yards and 4 TD’s like Jonas Gray did last year but DiRTCanon A.I.I could see 80 yards and 2 TD’s, which would get you over 20 fantasy points and you would only spend $3,400.  The 49ers are back at home against the Ravens, who are simply struggling.  Neither team is much to watch and with Smith still expected to be out, it would be a tough play to start Joe Flacco in DFS and the only receiver that might be worth while would be Kamar Aiken. I’m not taking either one as our DC*3PO has the 49ers D ranked #2 in fantasy points scored this week.  Stay away from this game is all I can say! The last game on this list is Minnesota. Obviously, the stats are going to be inflated versus expectation because of the injury to Charles. I don’t expect a ton of production in this game on either side and I certainly wouldn’t take West or Davis in DFS this week, you have to wait and see who gets the workload, I suspect pretty even production. The QB to consider for this weekend is Andy Dalton, he is even cheaper than he has been as the Bengals head up to Buffalo.  What most people don’t realize is that the Bills pass defense is giving up 7th most fantasy points to the QB position so far this season and #5 in points given up to TE’s. Taking the Dalton/Eifert connection is another safe play this week, with fairly cheap salaries.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!


We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or dm us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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Teaching You How to #Win – #NFL Week 6 Absolutes

 

Week 6 Absolutes 

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Absolute Must Have

As we look to move into the second quarter of the NFL season, we have some certainties, one of which is Tom Brady!  Aug 16, 2013; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY SportsHe has started off the season as the highest producing player on FanDuel and #3 on Draftkings. This week he is our #1 overall Absolute #MustHave! This is the game we have been waiting for since the Colts called shenanegans on the Pats last post season. Not only have the Patriots owned them of late, they have blown them off the planet. This game doesn’t seem to have any more to it than that but I will say that by enlarge the Patriots have beat the Colts down by running the ball with an extra lineman into block. Look for Brady to exceed his projection of 26.12 on Draftkings this week as they have different weapons this year and I suspect that Lewis, Gronk and Edelman will all get into the mix, not just Blount! I believe that Gronk get’s back on the TD train, Patriots roll the Colts by 29, just like they have averaged since Andrew Luck came into the league.

FanDuel Projection – 22.89  Draftkings Projection – 26

***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher


 

Absolute Notable

For FanDuel our top Notable for week 6 is Ryan Fitzpatrick, coming in with a projection of 17.77 and a positive projection to spend ratio of 2.24.  He is coming off a bye week last week and the Washington secondary is not very good.  Aug 24, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) throws in the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY SportsLook for Brandon Marshall to also have another solid performance again this week. On Draftkings, we have Andy Dalton. What can I say about his play this season, simply amazing.  I have started him on one lineup every week since week 2 and he has outperformed our projection each time this season. The Bills defense is supposed to be stout but did you know that they have given up at least 22 fantasy points to every QB this season except Mariota last week.  He was close but look who Tennessee has, certainly no AJ Green over there, look for Dalton to continue his top 5 play again this week and put up 25 fantasy points.  On Draftkings as his salary is far lower than his production so far this season so give him a shot, you won’t be disappointed. His Draftkings Projection is 20.85.

***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800

 


Absolute Sleeper

fanduelNow for the category that most, if not all of you are really looking for.  Each week we have nailed our #Sleeper for the week and that is why we have been so consistent in winning on both FanDuel and Draftkings!  Drum roll please………….Ryan Fitzpatrick is our Absolute Sleeper on Draftkings this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick_headshots_250He comes in with a Draftkings Projection of 16.58 and a salary of only $5,000. I know that you might be looking for a different position here but our Absolutes are based off of a combination of projection and matchup value for the week.  While Washington has a descent statistical value this season, the value for Fitzpatrick is there.  If you took McCown last week, who was in a similar situation, you blew it up last week and Fitzpatrick is that guys this week, trust me.  Our FanDuel Absolute Sleeper is C.Santos for the Chiefs.  Yeah, I know a Kicker, come on MAN! The truth is, the Cheifs are going to struggle to put the ball in the end zone with Charles gone for the season, look for big points out of this young man.  My personally selection for this week’s #Sleeper is Antonio Andrews of the Tennessee Titans.  Andrews is averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game on Draftkings this season and Miami comes in with the highest projected rush yards against for the week.  He is only $3,400 so for that price, you can afford some higher priced folks this week.

***Reminder that Sleepers are salaries under $5,200

Get your full FanDuel Absolutes report for week 5 here.

Ger your full Draftkings Absolutes report for week 5 here.


We want to hear from you, please take our poll.

 


 

Teaching You How to #Win – Favorites/Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Kansas City -10.5 over Chicago
  • Green Bay -10 over St. Louis (in Green Bay)
  • New England -10 over Dallas

Boy was I wrong last week as the 49ers proved yet again why I can’t believe anyone is a 49ers fan, that team is terrible.  Your boy, Xerxes, or as one great man put it, Colin KaepN’1read, has lost whatever talent he once displayed.  The Seahawks are not going to the Superbowl this year, they should be 1 – 3 right now and another terrible call in Seattle, got them back to .500.  Andrew Luck didn’t play and news was announced this morning that he will sit out again.  All you folks that took the Colts this year to get to the Bowl, who you got now?  I have been on Patriots and Falcons from the beginning and so far, I like my chances.  As for these games, I’m taking the Bears and the points with the Chiefs winning this game 27 – 20.  Green Bay will win but I don’t believe they blowout the Rams, if Gurley gets going like I thought Hyde would do last week, this will be a close game with Green Bay winning 31 – 24 with a late touchdown.  New England rolls the Cowboys 49 – 10 and if my dream comes true, Greg Hardy plays only one play on defense before the entire offensive line chop blocks him and sends him to see Dr. Andrews…..nuf said!


Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have a tie for the top over/under game of the week.  New England and Dallas as well as New Orleans and the Eagles are both slated for 49.5 combined points.

Sep 19, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General view of the NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As you can tell, I am already on the Patriots as I think they will put up the 49 points and we will see if Dallas can get the other .5 points but I think this is a safe bet.  The Eagles and Saints however, I don’t think they have a chance a scoring 49.5 points.  The Eagles are a hot mess right now and while the Saints aren’t very good either, they are coming off a late night OT victory.  I am taking the Saints this week and the 4.5 points but I have the Saints winning 20 – 17 so I’m on the under.  Nothing like rooting for no touchdowns I know but the truth is, the Eagles have no idea what they are doing on offense and I expect that to continue again this weekend.


Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the New York Giants at 309.85 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Cleveland at 126.8 yards
  • Overall is New England at 427.6 yards

I agree that Justin Forsett is going to torch the Browns defense this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings.  In fact, he had a breakout game last week and with Steve Smith expected to miss this game, look for him to play a big role as the Ravens look to get back in the division race.

Nov 10, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; General view of MetLife Stadium during the NFL game between the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA Today Sports

As for the Giants pass defense, while terrible so far, they get Captain Check Down this week.  I don’t believe that the Giants will give up the most passing yards this week simply because of who they are playing.  Instead, I think Brady goes for 350+ on Dallas.  That brings me to New England’s defense, DC*3PO has them giving up a ton of yards to the Cowboys, which could be the case but I don’t think so.  I have already said that I believe the Pats win 49 – 10 so the overall defense to exploit is in fact Dallas.  The defense that I think will create turnovers and not give up many yards is in fact the Giants. If you take the Giants D, you will save an extra $400 or more on this roster spot and that might just get you Keenan Allen or Larry Fitzgerald in that mid range zone.  Most people will pick the Denver D for their fantasy team as evident in our Public Picks here.