DiRTy Plays #NBA Friday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 19, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

The Lineup Analzyer is in full affect now, just click here to check it out!Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Isaiah Canaan is our top value play with a value on FanDuel of +.4 and  for DraftKings, T.J. McConnell has a value of -1.37.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +1.03 and on DraftKings a -1.46. He is a must play tonight.
  • Small Forward – P.J. Tucker is our leader with a -.58 on FanDuel value and, Joe Johnson is -3.85 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Luis Scola is our top value for FanDuel at +.03 and, Patrick Patterson on DraftKings is at -2.83.
  • Center – Steven Adams leads this category with a -3.62 value on FanDuel and Lavoy Allen is -4.14 on DraftKings; but the reality of it is that they should not be considered unless you need to reach at center tonight.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Mike Conley is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 30.48 on FanDuel and Ricky Rubio with a 32.35 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – C.J. Mc Collum leads this category at 38.11 projection on DraftKings and a value of -4.49 where on FanDuel his projection is 35.19 and a -3.14.
  • Small Forward – Kawai Leonard is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 34.46 and Trevor Ariza on Draftkings projection of 30.75 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Thad Young is our top value PF for Fanduel tonight with a projection of 31.14.   Julius Randle is projected at 30.39 for Draftkings.
  • Center – Al Horford is the top center for tonight in Fanduel with a projection of 30.17.  Marcin Gortat in Draftkings with a projection of 31.95.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook is our top PG for tonight as he is ……
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is the top SG for tonight …..
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant is the top projected player at this position with a 43.71.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is our top player for tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns should lead all centers tonight.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook should be considered for DraftKings because of his triple-double potential.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is our top SG for tonight.
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.71.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight at 36.65.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 38.52 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential lineup stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:FanDuel_

  1. Golden State vs. Portland (223.5 projected pts)
  2. Denver vs. Sacramento (217 projected pts)
  3. Indiana vs. OKC (215 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden St Warriors (115.5 projected pts)draftkings
  2. OKC Thunder (111.5 projected pts)
  3. Houston Rockets (111.5 projected pts)
  4. Sacramento Kings (110.5 projected pts)
  5. San Antonio Spurs (107.5 projected pts)
  6. New Orleans Pelicans (107 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryKawhi Leonard – Out
  • Hassan Whiteside – Out, look for Stoudemire to get the start and contribute a ton tonight.
  • Marc Gasol – Out for the remainder of the season

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Greg Monroe on DraftKings with Thad Young leading this category for FanDuel
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Jordan Clarkson on DraftKings with Joe Johnson leading this category for FanDuel.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_AnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we have a full compliment of games and therefore a ton of options. Our top projected lineup for tonight has our chalk play of Curry. We then are adding McCollum and Rubio to this mix to add depth at guard. We also have Will Barton in that mix. Next we have Jae Crowder and Joe Johnson as they bring the 3 ball to the table for tonight. We finish with Jabri Parker and Andrew Bogut. This lineup has huge potential for tonight.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel tonight we are going to roll with Westbrook and Lowry at PG. Then we have Batum and Waiters as a a value play and Batum having a hot hand of late. Next we go value at SF with Ariza and Tucker. At PF we are going with Dieng, who is also a hot hand and compliment him with Grant as Grant has been seeing much more playing time down the stretch. Last we have our boy Rudy Gobert, who when playing next to Favors averages over 35 fantasy points per game.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 18, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

Back from our All-Star break and we are ready to get down to it. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Neto is our top value play with a value on FanDuel of -1.33 and DraftKings value of -4.41. You need to watch if Trey Burke is going to play as this would eliminate him from being considered tonight due to lack of playing time.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +.04 and on DraftKings a -2.49. He is a must play tonight.
  • Small Forward – Doug McDermott is our leader with a -2.51 on FanDuel value and -2.01 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -1.14 and on DraftKings he is at -3.24. If Love doesn’t play then he would be a must start so you can take 3 superstars tonight.
  • Center – Mozgov leads this category with a -7.12 value on FanDuel and -9.32 on DraftKings but the reality of it is that he should not be considered unless you need to reach at center tonight.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – CP3 is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 37.73 on FanDuel and 40.59 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood leads this category at 31.39 projection on DraftKings and a value of -6.41 where on FanDuel his projection is 29.09 and a -2.41. Not a lot of options here but between Green, Hood and Crawford, those are you strong plays for tonight.
  • Small Forward – Kawai Leonard is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 35.13 and Draftkings projection of 37.48 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top value PF tonight, if he plays, he should do well with the injuries on the front line to Chicago.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan is the top center for tonight as he has been killing it so look for another double-double for tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – John Wall is our top PG for tonight as he is our top last 5 player with a nice matchup against the Jazz at the PG position.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green is the top SG for tonight from a value perspective. Beal should be considered as well as Hood but if you but if you are looking for similar production with some salary savings he is your guy.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 40.07.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top player for tonight.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan should lead all centers tonight.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Chris Paul should be considered for DraftKings because of his triple-double potential.
  • Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood is our top SG for tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.58.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is the top projected PF tonight at 33.38.
  • Center – Jordan also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 34.73 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavs (206 projected pts)
  2. San Antonio Spurs vs. LA Clippers (205.5 projected pts)
  3. Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards (196.5 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. Cleveland Cavs (109.5 projected pts)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (105 projected pts)
  3. LA Clippers (100.5 projected pts)
  4. Utah Jazz (99 projected pts)
  5. Washington Wizards (98.5 projected pts)
  6. Chicago Bulls (96.5 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here is the top lineup stack for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

draftkingsFor DraftKings here is the top lineup stack for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

 

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryNo real injuries to report for tonight with everyone coming off a long break. Look for Love to play tonight and Tony Parker should at least split minutes with Mills but should still see the floor.
  • Be sure to check just before tip in order to ensure there are no late scratches for tonight!

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeAndre Jordan for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Brad Beal on DraftKings with Derrick Rose leading this category for FanDuel
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper isPatty Mills for both sites as he will look to split the minutes with Tony Parker and has put up huge numbers when given the chance of late.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerAs John Wall is our chalk play for tonight, we are also able to add Aldridge and Hayward to our list of high end notable players. Gortat comes in with high upside at the Center position, although DeAndre Jordan is expected to be the top center for tonight. We have Danny Green and Jamal Crawford, combined with Rodney Hood as our guards should produce well for us tonight from both a value and overall production perspective. Last we have David West and while Duncan is expected to play tonight, West should still get around 20 minutes and should get us around 20 fantasy points for tonight.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzer On FanDuel tonight, we have a great combo at PG with Wall and Irving. Only CP3 should out produce these guys tonight with Wall #1, CP3 #2 and Irving #3 but considering the price difference, Irving is a strong play here. At SG, we have Green and Hood as our top SG’s for tonight. At SF we have to eliminate James from our selection in order to fill our lineup with top projected performers as such we are rolling with Hayward and Leonard at this position tonight. Bobby Portis and Tristan Thompson lead our PF’s for tonight as we look for value there. Both are going to be wildcard plays tonight in that they could only get 40 fantasy points combined but considering the cost, they should get us over 50 fantasy points. Last we have Gortat at the Center position as we look to get 32+ fantasy points for tonight. Look for this lineup to reach 290+ fantasy points.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays #NBA Wednesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 10, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an amazing game to cap off the night in Golden State as we had Harden and Curry on display. Both players ended up going for over 50 fantasy points yet again and it was fun to watch as the Warriors jumped out to a lead with Harden getting it rolling in the 2nd quarter to get it back within reach by half time. The 3rd quarter was back and forth but Harrison Barnes put down 14 points in the fourth quarter, including a three to finish the game that cost thousands of fantasy players from staying in the bubble for the cash! Another player that we highly touted yesterday was John Wall and he had an amazing performance with 28 points and 17 assists but it was Rodney Hood who took down the notables yesterday. Bogut was the top Sleeper pick just as we predicted for his value, coming through with over 40 fantasy points. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings Patty Mills with an overall value of -1.25 and Ish Canaan on FanDuel with a positive 1.22. Both players are projected over 20 so this could be great value plays in order to get 2 or 3 top tiered players.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG tonight with a positive value of 1.32 on FanDuel and -2.73 on DraftKings. Since Ginobli is out, look for him to continue to contribute between 20 and 35 fantasy points each night.
  • Small Forward – Joe Johnson is our top value play at -3.76 on DraftKings and Aminu on FanDuel at -2.43. Johnson is a nice play for this position on DraftKings because this position, aside from the top salary players, tends to produce the least amount of fantasy points each night. Aminu has been hit or miss with a 58% confidence rating but is projected at 23.82 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -.32 and Mike Scott tops this list on DraftKings with a value of -4.23. This means that most of the PF’s on DraftKings are significantly over priced so taking a chalk play here makes more sense for just that reason as Scott only has a projection of 14.73.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Biyombo with a projection of 21.03 and a value of -2.37 where he leads this category on FanDuel with a positive .21 and a projection of 19.64 and a salary of only $3,700.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – For FanDuel we have Rubio with a projection of 30.5 and an overall value of -5.2 where DraftKings his projection is 32.29 and a value of -4.91.
  • Shooting Guard – On DraftKings we have Evan Turner coming in with a projection of 30.54 and a value of -3.06 which is #2 overall. For FanDuel we have to go all the way down to James Harden who has a projection of 49.73 and a value of -6.3. This means Harden should be a chalk play for tonight on FanDuel but that there are also a ton of mid salary guys that could produce value for you tonight.
  • Small Forward – FanDuel we go all the way down to #23 where LeBron James sits on our value list as he is projected to score 46.33 fantasy points and a value of -7.22. This means he would need to score 53.55 points to be worthy of his assigned salary and score enough to be on a winning lineup, that is within reach for sure. On DraftKings his projection is 49.38 with a value of -9.42 which puts him at 58.8, also within reach so another potential chalk play tonight.
  • Power Forward – Thad Young leads us here for DraftKings with a projection of 33.13 and a value of -8.27. On FanDuel his projection is 30.74 and a value of -6.01. Both of these should be achievable marks for him to hit on either site.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is our leader for FanDuel with a projection of 37.03 and a -8.64 value or a Needed Points™ of 45.94 to hit his value and he has been around that mark for the past month. Gorgui Jieng is our DraftKings center just in front of Towns with a projection of 30.6 tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader with a top projection for this position with a projection of 40.2. He should easily surpass that number again tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden has our top projection for tonight at 49.73 fantasy points for tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 46.33 and he has been right around that mark in each of his last 5 games.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight with a projection of 39.77 tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is the top projected center for tonight at 37.03 fantasy points.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is our leader for projection at PG on DraftKings as well with a projection of 44.39 fantasy points tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is the top projected player on DraftKings tonight at 54.14 fantasy points tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 49.38.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight at 42.15.
  • Center – Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 39.78 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns (221 projected pts)
  2. Sacramento Kings vs. Philadelphia 76ers (218.5 projected pts)
  3. Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers (214 projected pts)

Top 5 Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden State Warriors (119 projected pts)
  2. Sacramento Kings (111.5 projected pts)
  3. Cleveland Cavs (111.5 projected pts)
  4. Portland Trailblazers (109.5 projected pts)
  5. Detroit Pistons & Philadelphia 76ers (107 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

draftkingsFor DraftKings here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryJimmy Butler: He will be sidelined for 3 – 4 weeks so look for E’Twan Moore to start in his place.
  • Marc Gasol: Has a broken foot and is out indefinitely. At this point Ryan Hollins is projected to start in his place as this could be a season ending injury for Gasol.
  • Kobe Bryant: UPDATE: Bryant (shoulder) is considered questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers, Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News reports.
  • Brandon Knight: Will not play until after the All-Star Break so Goodwin will start again tonight.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: He will be out until after the All-Star break so look for Stanley Johnson to continue to get his minutes with huge upside again tonight.
  • Tobias Harris: UPDATE: Harris (ankle) did not go through shootaround, but he still may have a chance to play Wednesday against the Spurs, John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Damian Lillard on both sites for tonight as the Rockets have given up a ton to the PG position of late but it would be hard to not have Curry in your lineup.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Reggie Jackson on DraftKings and Klay Thompson on FanDuel.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Jordan Clarkson on DraftKings and D’Angelo Russell on FanDuel. The backcourt for the Lakers should produce against the Cavs tonight but look for Kobe to put on a show as this is his last night in Cleveland tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)

DK_LineupAnalyzer_LateNightFor the late night contest, the last before we break for the All-Star games, we are rolling with Curry & Harden as our top Chalk plays again tonight as both come off 50+ fantasy nights last night against each other. We are going cheap with Gerald Henderson and Mirza Teletovic, both have been over 20+ fantasy points of late on a consistent basis. Ed Davis at PF is also a nice value play and then another huge value guy is Speights at Center tonight with the Warriors coming off a back to back and a huge potential for a blowout in this contest. We finish off this lineup with Devin Booker and Markief Morris both of which have a chance to get a ton of garbage points in this game where a lot of threes are projected.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)

FD_LineupAnalyzer_LateNightFor FanDuel late night, we are going with Curry, Lillard and Harden as the top chalk plays. How can we afford those guys, let’s breakdown the rest. Devin Booker at SG should get between 25 and 35 fantasy points tonight. Rolling with Ariza and Brewer at SF is really your best combination with an overall projection of around 42 fantasy points and upside reaching into the 50’s. Last we have Markief Morris who is averaging just under 40 fantasy points over his last 5 games and Ed Davis, who should be a rebounding machine against the Rockets tonight. Last we are going to go with Bogut at center who is coming off one of his best season of the year last night and with a blowout potential, he might only get to his 20 point average but with the other chalk plays, this should be a solid play.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays #NBA Tuesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 9, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, we had D. Rose sit at the last minute which caused a ton of last second changes in order to get Pau Gasol on your lineup. We now know that Butler is going to be out for 3 – 4 weeks as such Moore is going to be a highly owned player until the salary gets to around $6,000 but that is your marker for him.

FD_PF_2816DK_PF_2816

 

 

 

 

Top Value Lineup

UVL_2816

 

Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings Raul Neto with Trey Burke sitting out, his value has risen to -2.28. On FanDuel we have J. Bayless for Milwaukee at a -1.58.
  • Shooting Guard – Langston Galloway leads this category at -3.78 for DraftKings value and -.65 for FanDuel value.
  • Small Forward – At this position we have Justice Winslow as the top value play at -3.09 on DraftKings and -1.75 on FanDuel.
  • Power Forward – For FanDuel we have Jabri Parker at -3.24 and then for DraftKings we have Booker for the Jazz at -4.92.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Robin Lopez at -6.31 and then Andrew Bogut at -3.99 for FanDuel

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – In terms of value for DraftKings we have Michael Carter Williams at -4.2 with a projection of 31.20. On FanDuel we have I. Thomas at a -7.75 value and a projection of 34.25.
  • Shooting Guard – For DraftKings we have James Harden at -8.7 with a projection of 55.43 so Chalk play there. For FanDuel we have Klay Thompson at -2.38 and a projection of 33.85.
  • Small Forward – there isn’t a ton of value at this position but for DraftKings we have Giannis Antetekounmpo at -10.82 and a projection of 30.58 and for FanDuel we have Kawai Leonard at -7.8 with a projection of 30.52.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category for us with a DraftKings projection of 32.78 and a value of -8.02 where on FanDuel we have a value of -6.85 and a projection of 30.95.
  • Center – Greg Monroe leads this category with a value of -7.9 on DraftKings and a projection of 32.30 where FanDuel we have a projection of 30.48 and an overall value of -11. It should be noted that he is also our highest projected center for tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader, with a huge projected team total, he should be considered in all formats on FanDuel.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is listed as GTD for some reason but we don’t have any new info on him so expect him to play and score in bunches against the Warriors.
  • Small Forward – Chandler Parsons has been on fire of late and his salary is still at a price point conducive to his production.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category and he should be able to to produce 35+ fantasy points tonight against the Spurs, assuming the game is kept relatively close.
  • Center – Greg Monroe should lead all Centers tonight in scoring.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – John Wall should be a strong consideration over Curry but they are close in price and performance Wall has been slightly ahead of late.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden enough said.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo is a strong play here tonight.
  • Power Forward – Draymond Green is the top projected guy for tonight.
  • Center – Greg Monroe is the top guy for tonight but I like Rudy Gobert to have another 40+ fantasy night tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Houston vs. Golden State (229.5 projected pts)
  2. Boston vs. Milwaukee (208.5 projected pts)
  3. Washington vs. New York (207 projected pts)
  4. San Antonio vs. Miami (194.5 projected pts)
  5. Utah vs. Dallas (187 projected pts)

Top Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden State – 122
  2. Houston – 107.5
  3. Boston – 106
  4. New York – 104
  5. Washington – 103
  6. Milwaukee – 102.5
  7. San Antonio – 101
  8. Dallas – 94
  9. Miami – 93.5
  10. Utah – 92.5

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

draftkingsFor DraftKings here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

Point 4 – Key Injuries:
injury

  • Hassan Whiteside: UPDATE: Whiteside (ankle) is considered a game-time call for Tuesday’s matchup with the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Whiteside did not practice Monday, but coach Erik Spoelstra said he was encouraged by how Whiteside looked, noting that the center “could play big minutes” Tuesday night. While Whiteside’s status won’t be determined until just before game time, if he does play, he could be in for a significant minutes load off the bench, assuming Spoelstra sticks with Amar’e Stoudemire as his starting center.
  • Justice Winslow: UPDATE: Deng did not go through shootaround due to illness and is considered questionable to play Tuesday night against the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Both Deng and Udonis Haslem were absent because of illness, and coach Erik Spoelstra said he’s unsure at this point whether either player will be available. Look for an update closer to game-time, but if Deng is held out, expect Gerald Green and Justise Winslow to see increased roles.
  • Trey Burke: UPDATE: Burke (illness) will not play in Tuesday’s game against Dallas, Jody Genessy of Deseret News reports.

 

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry with a Needed Points of 57.23 on DraftKings and 66 on FanDuel. He has topped those numbers 22% of the time so far.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Trevor Ariza on FanDuel and Greg Monroe on DraftKings
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez on DraftKings as he remains at $5,100 and should get around 30 fantasy points. For FanDuel we have Tony Parker as the top guy to have with a projection of 26.25.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzer_1For DraftKings tonight we have our chalk plays as Steph Curry and James Harden as our Chalk plays for tonight. They are the number 1 and 3 projected players according to our system and they have the highest projected total from Vegas tonight. In order to save and afford these two players we are also adding Raul Neto, who is our top PG value play as his salary will assist us in building the proper lineup. Remember that Trey Burke is out so Neto is going to see 20 – 25 minutes so he should get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points tonight. Next we have Chandler Parsons and Justice Winslow. Given that Loul Deng didn’t participate at shoot around today due to illness, it is suspected that Winslow will get the start and play around 30 minutes. Parsons on the other hand has just been on fire so we are rolling with the hot hand there. Robin Lopez is our center for value purposes and then Jared Sullinger, who has played well over his last two games should get a solid 25+ fantasy points again tonight. Last we have Amare’ Stoudemire and that is based on the fact that Hassan Whiteside is dealing with an ankle injury and is a GTD tonight. To download a full copy of this analysis, just click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzer_DC1For FanDuel tonight we have Curry and Neto as our PG’s tonight as Curry is our top Must Have and then Neto is extreme value at only $3,800 tonight. Next we have our top 2 projected SG’s in James Harden and Klay Thompson. Again considering the matchup and expected points from this contest, both players should have solid outings and out perform their projections. At SF we are going cheap and value here with Cory Brewer and Justice Winslow. With Deng expected to sit out tonight and Brewer should see the floor if this game gets out of hand, that means bench points for Brewer. At PF we are going with Amir Johnson to get a solid 20 fantasy points in order for us to take another solid play in Draymond Green. He is a triple-double machine and should get close to 50 fantasy points tonight. Last we have our value Center in Robin Lopez. All in all this lineup should get us to around 337 fantasy points tonight.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays #NBA Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 8, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings we have Jeff Teague and with Schroder listed as a GTD, this makes an even better play with an overall value of -4.13. On FanDuel we have Ish Canaan at -1.39 and that will depend on whether Ish Smith plays or not.
  • Shooting Guard – Kyle Korver with a -2 overall value for DraftKings and a 1.02 positive on FanDuel but his salary is declining as he isn’t seeing as much time on the floor of late.
  • Small Forward – Kent Bazemore is the guy to have on DraftKings with a -3.69 value where we have CJ Miles on FanDuel as he comes in with an overall value of -1.2
  • Power Forward – It’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. He is the top value play and has a projection of over 30 on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. His player exposure should be in the 90% range.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Asik at -2.16 and on FanDuel we have Roy Hibbert at -2.17. I don’t like either of these plays but if you need a cheap play at Center these would be your considerations.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – For DraftKings it is Jeff Teague with a projection of 31.87 and overall value of -4.13 but on FanDuel we have Derrick Rose with an overall value of -4.58 and a projection of 31.65. Remember no Butler tonight so Rose is a strong play tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -3.49 on DraftKings with a projection of 35.51 and on FanDuel he has an overall value of -1.48 and a projection of 32.65.
  • Small Forward – Paul George leads this category with an overall value of -7.19 on DraftKings and -5.41 on FanDuel. His projections are 43.81 on DraftKings and 40.26 on FanDuel. He has scored 40+ fantasy points in 2 straight.
  • Power Forward – As we have already said, it’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. His projections are 33.17 on DraftKings and 30.87 on FanDuel.
  • Center – Brook Lopez is the DraftKings center for this category at -8.47 and a projection of 38.33. On FanDuel we have Al Horford at a -6.87 and a projection of 30.41.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Derrick Rose is the top PG to have tonight because of value for his price and Butler being out. Russell Westbrook will most likely score the most points for this position but his salary is climbing quickly.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis is our top SG tonight with a great matchup, he should be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer. We also like DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo to have a shot at going for over 40 fantasy points as well.
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant is the top SF tonight as he will put up another 55+ fantasy point performance tonight but Paul George is not far behind and should be the 2nd best producer at this position tonight.
  • Power Forward – Marvin Williams is the top guy to have for both value and projection. If you are looking for chalk here, going with Anthony Davis is your best play as he should score the most fantasy points at this position tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns should be the most productive Center on DraftKings with Cousins most likely to lead this category on FanDuel. Dieng is a solid play at center on either site for value and projection.

The stack considerations for tonight are in the SAC vs. CLE and OKC vs. PHO matchups as they are the two highest projected totals according to Vegas. Both come in at 215 and 217 projected total points. In terms of individual team scores, Vegas has Cleveland as the top scoring team at 115 and OKC just behind at 114 points.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Jeff Teague should be a 35+ fantasy point performer and has great value tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer tonight.
  • Small Forward – Paul George has the best value for the production. He will be #2 in fantasy production here to Kevin Durant but for the extra $2,200 in savings they won’t be that far a part with a potential blowout in Phoenix.
  • Power Forward – Marvin Williams is your guy.
  • Center – Gorgui Dieng is the best value and projection as he should be #3 in fantasy scoring tonight behind Towns and Lopez.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Russell Westbrook with a 15% of hitting this category tonight. He might do it in 3 quarters.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is Drummond as he is up to an 83% chance tonight.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Kyle Lowry at 2.84 with George right behind him.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Hot Hands Last 5 Games:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

Last5

Some key highlights from this would be that Westbrook, Durant and Anthony Davis are the only players over 50 at this time. Some key highlights would be Marvin Williams at 35.35 over his last 5 and Dieng at 38.2. Both are nice plays tonight.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Kevin Durant as he will look to score and score often against a terrible Phoenix team.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Gorgui Dieng as we look to take advantage of his relatively low salary again tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Zach Lavine on DraftKings and Stanley Johnson on FanDuel.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerRather than describe this particular lineup, I figured I would try something a bit different and just give you a few of the top lineups for various reasons and let you check out more than one lineup from us today.

To Download a copy of each of these lineups just click the link below:

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FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerOn FanDuel, there are a lot of solid plays from Aaron Gordon to Stanley Johnson. You can take chalk plays of Westbrook and Durant or go value with Teague and Rose so you can spread the wealth to all positions. As we have done for DraftKings, here are 5 lineup considerations. To download a copy of each of the top 5, just click the link below:

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_1

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_2

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_3

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NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_5


Key Injuries:injury

  • Jimmy Butler – He is out tonight, look for Moore to get the start and Rose to play 40+ minutes tonight.
  • Marc Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol is considered questionable for Monday’s game against the Blazers due to soreness in his right foot, Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal reports.
  • Rudy Gay: UPDATE: Gay (ankle) will try to play Monday against the Cavs, CSN Bay Area’s James Ham reports.
  • Dennis Schroder: UPDATE: Schroder suffered a laceration to his chin during Sunday’s matchup with the Magic, which forced him to receive five stitches following the game, Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • D’Angelo Russell: UPDATE: Russell (groin) is being viewed as a game-time decision for Monday’s tilt with the Pacers, Mike Trudell of Lakers.com reports.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays #NBA Friday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 5, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Friday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is Kyle Korver on FanDuel with a positive .17 value (rarely does this occur) and TJ McConnell on DraftKings at -.56. Again something of note here is just the fact that these players don’t have much upside but they will be more than worth their assigned salary compared to their projected output.
  • The second overall value play(s) for tonight are TJ McConnell on FanDuel with a value of -.72 and for DraftKings we have Hollis Thompson. McConnell while of value, the PG position on FanDuel is a position of strength where you really need to only be looking at players that will achieve 35+ fantasy points and TJ’s high for the season is 34.8.
  • The third overall value play(s) for tonight are Tristan Thompson on FanDuel with a value of -1.28 and Joe Johnson on DraftKings. I personally like Joe Johnson as he will get a ton of scoring opportunities and Brooklyn is projected to score 104 points tonight so he is a solid play. Tristan Thompson on the other hand is heading in the opposite direction as Ty Lou has figured out how to actually utilize Kevin Love in their system and so Love is trending up and Thompson is headed in the other direction, proving that he is not worth anywhere near the 80M contract he signed over the summer.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Ish Smith with a FanDuel projection of 31.95 and DraftKings projection of 34.01, he is definitely the PG of choice for the 76ers. His value is between -3 and -8 so he is more than worth his price tag especially on FanDuel.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -4.51 and a projection of 31.19 on FanDuel and a value of -6.42 and a projection of 33.78 on DraftKings, solid play here.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as the top projected, value play at SF tonight. He has a value of -5.85 and projection of 33.52 on FanDuel along with a value of -6.83 and projection of 35.77 on DraftKings. He is becoming a star in this league and from a #DFS perspective, he gets 30+ fantasy points on a nightly basis.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads our value play over 30+ projection for tonight. His value on FanDuel is a -4.33 and -7.74 on DraftKings and is the 2nd highest projected PF for tonight.
  • Center – Al Horford leads on FanDuel with a projection of 30.41 and a value of -6.34 but for DraftKings we have Brook Lopez with a top projection for the Center position at 40.97 and a value of -5.23. It should be noted that Brook’s brother Robin Lopez is the top value play at Center for tonight with a -2.09 value on FanDuel and -3.95 on DraftKings. He is also coming off a 40+ fantasy performance last night.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – John Wall who has been playing lights out, he is the top PG for tonight but Ish Smith isn’t far behind.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be one of if not the top PG tonight and he is priced just right to take advantage of his matchup and projected performance.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is our top Chalk play for tonight, he will most likely be widely owned in tournament play but he is more than worth it tonight with the Caves being the 3rd highest projected team score for tonight.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is another almost 100% certainty to go for between 35 and 45 fantasy points. His salary is on the incline so he is getting close to not being worth it until he is consistently scoring more than 40 fantasy points but for tonight, he is your play at PF with Chris Bosh a close second.
  • Center – Robin Lopez is who we would recommend at Center given his cost so you can spend on other positions and get similar output to the high end salary guys. The exception to this would be on FanDuel assuming Cousins plays. Cousins will go for more than 50 and should be a Chalk play if he doesn’t sit out, which he isn’t expected to but is listed on the injury report still.

The stack considerations for tonight are in the Philly vs. Washington (215 total points), Sacramento vs. Brooklyn (213 total points) and Boston vs. Cleveland (210 total points). From a mix and match perspective the top projected teams in order of projected team points scored are Washington (112), Sacramento (109), Cleveland (108), LA Clippers (105) and Brooklyn (104) for tonight.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – CP3 has been lights out and so him or Wall are solid but if you can take both, might be a great idea.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 35 tonight.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo if you are going to roll with CP3 and Wall, otherwise it is LBJ.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love for sure on DraftKings because of his three point ability and double-double potential for tonight.
  • Center – Brook Lopez is your guy for tonight or take his brother for value and either way you should have solid production.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 12% chance, just keep in mind he is playing through turf toe and looked terrible in his last outing.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight can be one of 5 players, with all of them having over a 50% chance and that is Wall, Cousins, Monroe, Gasol (if he plays) and the leader being DeAndre Jordan.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Paul George at 2.73 projected three’s for tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

last5

Some key highlights from this would be that there is not a single player averaging over 50 fantasy points over their last 5 but Wall does lead this list at 49.6 and his opponent Philly, is averaging 70.35 over their last 5 to the PG position, that is top Chalk!

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is John Wall with LeBron James also on this list, take them both tonight in most if not all of your lineups and watch the points pour in.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Ish Smith on FanDuel and Monta Ellis on DraftKings.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez and with his value and ability to get 15+ rebounds and over 10 points, it would be hard not to take him tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we are rolling with a John Wall and LBJ combo breaker. Having these two players should get you between 100 and 115 fantasy points tonight. As we look to save at SG tonight, we are going to go with E’twan Moore as we know that Butler is going to play tonight but Moore should still start and with some uncertainty with regard to how much time Butler will actually see combined with playing the Nuggets awful defense, look for Moore to get 22 fantasy points tonight. Next we have our top value play at Center with Robin Lopez and we expect to see 31 fantasy points out of him tonight. Danny Green is going to see extended minutes with Manu Ginobli sidelined for at least 6 weeks so Green could get to 25 fantasy points with high upside if he gets off to a hot start from the 3 pt line. Next we have our Mavs for tonight in Dirk and Zaza, both of which have averaged right around 30 fantasy points per game for the season and both should hit the double-double mark. They do play the Spurs so this will not be a high scoring game but both of these guys should be right around their season average of 60 fantasy points combined. Last we have a sneaky play in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, since coming back from his injury is averaging just over 31 fantasy points per game and this should continue tonight. So considering injuries, this team will come in with a projection of 284 and that should cash in both tournament and 50/50 play tonight.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel tonight, we are also going to roll with many of the similar guys in that we have John Wall and LBJ combo and they should still hit for around 110 fantasy points on FanDuel. Our other PG is going to be Ish Smith who if he continues his production and playing in the highest scoring game, he should get to 36 fantasy points tonight. At SG we are going with our top value and solid play of Monta Ellis along with Moore again here for low salary and value. We expect to achieve 60 fantasy points between these two players tonight. Our other SF besides James is going to Deng. Deng has quietly been posting right around 30 fantasy points per game of late and we expect similar production tonight. At the PF position, we are going back to Aaron Gordon who had an awful performance last time out but that was on a back to back so we will give him the benefit of the doubt and expect him to get 26 fantasy points tonight alongside Aldridge who finally showed up in his last contest, going for over 50 for the first time this season. We would expect 40 fantasy points from him tonight so a total of 66 from our PF’s tonight. Last we are rolling with our value play at Center again in Robin Lopez as we should see 31 fantasy points from him again tonight. That makes this team considering matchup and injuries, projected at 333 fantasy points and that covers our 315 mark so you should be good to go in all formats here.


injuryKey Injuries:

  • Cousins is officially going to play tonight
  • Butler has been upgraded to probable and he will play tonight but may be on a minutes restriction.
  • Pau Gasol continues to be questionable and so he will be a GTD tonight so be sure to monitor that up to game time. If he doesn’t go look for Gibson to have a solid game.
  • Kemba Walker has been upgraded to probable and should play tonight so avoid Lin if you were thinking value there again tonight.
  • Crowder is still listed as a GTD so you won’t know until after warmups if he is going to go, probably best to stay away from him tonight.
  • Nene Hilario has just been listed as out tonight so look for Dudley to be a huge value play and now considered in all lineups.
  • Ginobli is out for about 6 weeks as such Danny Green is going to be a huge value play as well and should see 30+ minutes tonight.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 4, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, there were some huge performances. Did you know that we had 7 players go for over 50 fantasy points last night? The problem was that most of those players were the high salaried players so it didn’t make for record fantasy scoring overall. Westrbrook through down a monster triple-double with another one added by Draymond Green (both of which were on our Big Play Potential)! Then you had Durant, Curry, Wall and Oladipo pouring in points in the early to mid games! Fun night for the NBA for sure! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is DeAngelo Russell on DraftKings and PJ Tucker on FanDuel. Both players have been playing well of late and will get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points on a regular basis but not much upside there.
  • The second overall value play(s) for tonight is Bismack Biyombo on DraftKings and for FanDuel we have Jordan Clarkson. While Biyombo hits this list, he hasn’t seen as much playing time over his last 10 games so the reason he hits this list is simply because of his salary being so low. Clarkson on the other hand has been consistently hitting that 25 point mark and with Kobe uncertain for tonight, this is a solid play.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Gerald Henderson for DraftKings and Julius Randle for FanDuel. I like both of these plays tonight with Henderson coming off a 25+ fantasy point performance and playing around 23 minutes over his last 3 games, he should get a solid 20 fantasy points tonight. Randle is looking more like a consistent 30+ fantasy point performer for as long as Nance is out, which is scheduled to be at least through the All-Star break.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Damian Lillard with a projection of 37 fantasy points and a -8.67 on our value scale.
  • Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan with a projection of 39.14 on DraftKings and 37.08 on FanDuel with only a -5.45 value for tonight, solid play!
  • Small Forward – Marcus Morris has a 24.11 projection on FanDuel and 25.83 on DraftKings, he might see more action of Pope does sit out tonight and he has the three ball in his favor on DraftKings, value is only -2.66 so with limited options for this position tonight, he should be considered.
  • Power Forward – Ryan Anderson on DraftKings is a solid projection of 32.68 and a -5.72 value, if you aren’t going Anthony Davis here, he should be considered.
  • Center – Andre Drummond should be no surprise here with the lack of Centers playing tonight so he comes in with a 35+ point projection and an almost automatic double-double

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Patrick Beverly with a low salary and having produced in the upper 20’s in each of his last 3 while playing against the Suns, solid play
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden Chalk play, enough said
  • Small Forward – Trevor Ariza has a solid matchup against the Suns and while Howard is expected back, he is one of the best options aside from Carmelo tonight at this position.
  • Power Forward – Julius Randle should be considered across the board for your lineups given his overall value and really only Anthony Davis as a potential chalk play here.
  • Center – Andre Drummond is the only option outside of Robin Lopez here so you either decide to spend on this position or you don’t and those are your options!

The stack considerations for tonight are in the Houston vs. Phoenix game with a projected total score of 214 and if you are looking to stack based on the two teams that are projected to score the most that would be the Pelicans and Rockets!

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Damian Lillard is your Chalk play here as he will hit a ton of threes tonight
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is a must play
  • Small Forward – PJ Tucker with the Rockets in town look for high scoring and Tucker should add some value for hitting some threes
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis should be considered in all formats and if not him then go Ryan Anderson
  • Center – Andre Drummond and this is no different than FanDuel, you either play him or you roll with Robin Lopez

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is James Harden at 4% chance.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is Andre Drummond. He comes in at 82% chance again tonight.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is James Harden and Kyle Lowry as both are right at 2.75 and 2.74 respectively.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

  • James Harden – 56.9
  • Andre Drummond – 42.25
  • Damian Lillard – 41.5
  • Kyle Lowry – 39.15
  • Jrue Holiday – 37.5

Some key highlights from this would be that only Harden tops the 50 point average for players in tonight’s field. Only Drummond and Lillard are over the 40 point marker so this means not a ton of high end scoring tonight.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden and that should come as no surprise given the fact that he is 10 points better than any other player playing tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Jrue Holiday on FanDuel and for DraftKings we have Caldwell-Pope if he plays. If he doesn’t then our second player is Markief Morris.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Norris Cole on FanDuel and Aminu on DraftKings as both players should be very solid in that 25 – 35 fantasy point range with more upside with Cole.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

As our Lineup Analyzer is under going some key enhancements and updates, I am just going to provide you with the lineups to consider for tonight without the graphic representation:

  • PG – Pat Beverly
  • SG – James Harden
  • SF – Trevor Ariza
  • PF – Anthony Davis
  • C – Robin Lopez
  • G – Gerald Henderson
  • F – Josh Smith
  • Util – DeAngelo Russell

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

  • PG – Pat Beverly
  • PG – Damian Lillard
  • SG – James Harden
  • SG – Devin Booker
  • SF – Al-Faruq Aminu
  • SF – PJ Tucker
  • PF – Julius Randle
  • PF – Markief Morris
  • C – Andre Drummond

injuryKey Injuries:

Nothing more to add as all of the key players we identified earlier today still have the same status so be sure to check them out as you build your lineups tonight. Here is the link to the post with that information from earlier today, just click here.

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