Monday Dreg

Is this Kentucky? – andersiano.deviantart.com

Ball 1:

The Karmic-Wheel of Justice has two games remaining to rip out the hearts of big blue’s die-hard fans.  We told you how to beat Kentucky and Notre Dame gave it a shot, but something happened when Jerian Grant decided to not pass the ball on ND’s last 3 possessions.  Does it make a difference?  Who knows, but there is a case to be made for that kind of hero-ball costing a team a chance at victory.  Of course, maybe it’s just the (bad) luck of the Irish this year.  That’s twice, in two sports, the Fightin’ Irish have taken the number 1 team in the land to the wire, only to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Now, we have the Final Four set and to be played in Indianapolis.  It will be interesting to see what kind of controversy is made or mentioned with Indiana’s new law.

For Kentucky to lose to Wisconsin, LSU gave you the formula:  Athletic big men who can rebound and start fast break points.  Wisconsin is averaging 80+ points per game and Wisconsin has to continue to make buckets from downtown.  Kaminsky gets the press, but Dekker has been the guy in the tournament and he has to continue to light it up.

When it comes to ‘Tucky, everyone has a plan until your punched in the mouth.  In this rematch it is size versus experience because both teams have talent.

What is it about Izzo‘s teams that seem to peak in the tournament.  If you saw them before the tournament, against quality opponents you would never believe they’d be in this position, and yet…

So how does Sparty beat Duke – they have to keep drinking whatever kool-aid they have been and hope the “magic” lasts.  Michigan State is the least talented team left, but might be the team that play together best.

For Duke they have to focus on Mich.St’s guards and shut them down.  Duke plays the most uptempo of anyone left and needs Winslow to keep doing what he’s doing, averaging: 14pts, 9.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, plus 1 block and 1 steal a game.

It’s been a long time, it seems that we have three really talented teams in the Final Four that all would be worthy champions – Saturday we shall see.


Ball 2:

Leave it to the sycophantic media, angry they don’t get enough of the jock-strap tea to slurp.  Dennis Dodd, member of the media, takes to twitter to flame Rodgers because…He has seats better than he does at the game?  Is allowed on the court?  Dating Olivia Munn?  Has hair?  Probably all of it and he brought up most of it in his twitter rant, only when Rodgers declined to be interviewed – as it was about Wisconsin making their second trip to the Final Four, in as many years, to play Kentucky again.  As you will see below – Dennis Dodd acted like a petulent child.  Aaron Rodgers does not need any more help in justifying his place on the court or in the stands, he did just fine by himself.  But why the outcry?  Where was it last year when he was in the stands, in the locker-room?  So what if he never went to Wisconsin (he went to Cal), he has worked in the state for over a decade.  Does that not earn him the right to support the local school they same way they support him?  As for Dodd, the irony is thick, coming from an entitled reporter who gets press passes to any event he wants – complaining on how Rodgers gets special treatment.  Dodd, He’s a NFL-MVP Quarterback and is dating an actress – welcome to ‘Murica!  Besides, how does Dodd justify himself being there – he’s a football writer and never went to Wisconsin either.

Rodgers took notice of Dodd’s manbaby tantrum and responded:


Ball 3:

We have 6 days until the season starts and in honor of that, here is what some high heat looks like.  So go out there, win your beer-league and get a good pitch to hit.  Opening Day around here is treated as a National Holiday – all you have to do is say the words and the room airs out, the light pours in.  No other day represents endless possibilities like Opening Day.  No scores yet, no losses, no blame or disappointment and no hangovers, until at least the game is over.  It’s a signal that the world is waking up from it’s cold slumber, to give way to longer, warmer days, worries as light as the clothes we wear and even the best part of the worst day is knowing it’s all going to be ok.


Ball 4 – take your base:

Only because Sportscenter had to talk about Wrestlemania XXXI last night.  Not sure how that fits within the sporting narative of the world-wide leader when the they just as easily could have opened with the season finale of The Walking Dead – It’s the same thing.  Don’t get me wrong, I have friends, actual grown-ups who watch and follow – and I myself have dallied in the male soap-opera.  But ESPN deserves a C’mon man.  It is not a sport.  A Sport is defined by me as something that is athletic and requires some sort of defense, or prevention of your opponent from scoring.  Chess is game that has defense but no athleticism.  Golf has neither.  Cycling is the worst, it has athleticism but no defense and is nothing more than what any 5yr old can do – except for enduring more pain than the other guy – and they can’t do that very well with all the blood-doping+drug use.  Wrestling it’s fun, it is athletic, however knowing the ending is predetermined, eliminates it – None of this takes away the joy you can find in any non-sport-endeavor.

There seemed to be a lot of surprises dropped this year providing salvation to a crazy week leading up to it – or so I hear – Rousey shows up with the Rock, etc – it appears to have been a blockbuster – I never knew that a guy could lose in another match – bring a briefcase to “buy-in” and steal the heavyweight title from the two guys who wearing killing each other to win.  Looks like I’ve got to watch RAW tonight to find out the DiRT.

  • Full WWE WrestleMania 31 results and winners…
    Seth Rollins defeated Brock Lesnar and Roman Reigns in a Triple Threat Match to win the  WWE World Heavyweight Title
    John Cena defeated Rusev to win the WWE United States Title
    Daniel Bryan defeated Dolph Ziggler, R-Truth, Dean Ambrose, Luke Harper, Stardust, and Bad News Barrett in a Ladder Match to win the WWE Intercontinental Title
    Triple H defeated Sting
    AJ Lee and Paige defeated The Bella Twins
    Randy Orton defeated Seth Rollins
    The Undertaker defeated Bray Wyatt
    The Big Show won the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal
    Cesaro and Tyson Kidd  defeated The Usos, Los Matadores, and Big E and Kofi Kingston in a Fatal 4 Way to retain the WWE Tag Team Titles

Monday Dregs

Nietzsche said, “out of chaos, comes order.” Or maybe he didn’t.  The infamous Howard Johnson of Rock-Ridge had quoted him, in a town meeting to discuss the new sheriff – so maybe it’s true.  But maybe chaos theory explains it just as well as Nietzsche – the more complex system, the faster and easier it breaks down.  That could apply to climate-change, governments and our bracket(s).  There is a morbid Bedouin proverb that says: “As the camel falls to its knees, more knives are drawn.”  A Proverb is a proverb because it speaks to a permanent truth…which may or may not be exactly how we felt when we saw what happened in the opening rounds.  All those 1 possession games, upsets…Seppuku

That is the word I was looking for when the Tigers of LSU missed 20 consecutive shots to lose the game against NC State.  There wasn’t much to expect this year, but to lose that way was a terrible shock to every fiber of my body.  It’s like your heart goes limp and the air is kicked out of your lungs for 20-30 seconds after seeing the final score and how it came to be – I fell sideways into a plate of tacos, like I was whacked in the head with a baseball bat.  Momentarily, I might have blacked out, but the room had already emptied except for two girls who were snickering at me as they walked out the door.  I was so swollen with shame that I felt like a fat kid after halloween – and that was when I thought about reaching for my gold-handled sword, as Dean Martin sang about kicks in the head  – it was the only honorable way out.  Just then I got a text message, taunting me and my thoughts moved from melancholy ceremony to vendetta.  A feeling I’m sure is shared with any fan of Virginia, Kansas, Iowa St or Villanova.

In our attempt to breakdown the bracket and build us all a better mousetrap – it appears we accomplished that.  If only we actually listened to what the tea leaves told us.  What we built, ended up getting 28 out of 32 correct on Thursday and Friday – 13 out of 16 for the weekend – that’s 84.4% overall!  Now if we had only listened to our own model…but that’s the trick isn’t it?  Just because you got UCLA correct and the system got it wrong – you blame the minor flaw for the whole – like Seinfeld and the numerous women he dumps because they are a low-talker, has man hands, or eats peas one at a time – and it all seems justifiable.  We chose poorly – the game is rigged, it knows you need the 12/5 upset, there was none.  It knows you have to find two #10 seed upsets and it gave one, Ohio St.  It counts on you selecting a #15 seed beating a #2 because the last 3 years it has happened, becoming a trend – but shuts that door on you as well.  Much like it knew the record of the #3 seeds, and yet the game crushed you with UAB over Iowa St (also a double-digit favorite), Georgia St over Baylor and almost gave you Northeastern over Notre Dame.  Only 3 times has 2 #14 seeds won a game in the same tournament – 1986 and 1995, and the last time a 12 did not beat a 5 was in 2007.  Hell, #8 seeds only win 53% of the time in the tournament the last 16 years and that did not stop all of them winning this year.  She’s a cruel mistress.

The system says Villanova and Virginia and your brain says they will fall – you know this, but when do you switch your faith in the design, to what is rationally dependent.  Is there any bigger set of teams that consistently choke away their chances more than Villanova and Kansas?  Of course you could be an entire state, like Texas, who failed to show up.  Even when the advice tells you to pick with the cruel logic over the bleeding heart, you still line up and get slaughtered.  The NCAA fattens us up so Vegas can eat well in the Spring.  But I digress, our bracket is hanging on and is tied with several other prognosticators having more final four teams than most and being the only one out of 8 that has Arizona and Duke in the title game.  If only we had listened to our own March-Madness Frankenstein – who says this is how the next round shakes out:

  • Notre Dame close
  • Wisconsin close
  • Kentucky
  • Arizona
  • Gonzaga
  • Louisville
  • Duke
  • Oklahoma

Further advancing Oklahoma over Louisville, Duke over Gonzaga, Arizona over Wisconsin and ‘Tucky over Notre Dame.

Aside from our DiRT Canon Analyzer, here are other “entertainment purposes only” trends in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8:

Sweet 16

  1. the Sweet 16 is usually where double digit seeds go down like a soccer player.  Better seeds have won 50 of the past 72 games SU (69%) the last nine years, but are only 29% ATS since 2012 (7-17)
  2. From 2003-2010 favorites of at least 5.5 were 22-1 SU in the Sweet 16.  However, 4 big upsets have occurred since: Arizona (+9.5) over Duke in 2011, Kentucky (+5.5) over Ohio St in 2011, Louisville (+5.5) over Michigan St in 2012 and Marquette (+5.5) over Miami in 2013.  These big favorites are only 17-18-1 ATS since 2003.
  3. Last year’s Sweet 16 featured six teams seeded 6th or worse, and three advanced to the Elite Eight, including #11 Dayton beating #10 Stanford.  That makes the lesser seed 8-2 SU and ATS (80%) in the last 10 situations when two teams seeded #6 or worse met in the Sweet 16. (none this year)
  4. Double-digit seeds are just 4-24 SU in the Sweet 16 round since 2003, with the only such win coming when #11 Dayton beat #10 Stanford, 82-72.  (UCLA is the only double digit seed remaining).
  5. In games where the total is 128 points or less, the UNDER is 14-5-1 (74%) since 1999.

Elite 8

  1. Since 1998, lesser seeds hold an overall advantage in the Elite 8, going 44-22-3 ATS (66%), including 3-0-1 in 2014.
  2. Lesser seeds in the Elite 8 had been 7-9 ATS (6-10 SU) from 2007-2010 before a 12-3-1 ATS run (11-5 SU) overthe past four tournaments with #8 Kentucky, #7 UConn and #2 Wisconsin all advancing as lesser seeds in 2014.
  3. Teams favored by 8+ points in this round have won 12 of the last 15 games, but are just 4-10-1 (29%).  Florida beat Dayton last year 62-52, giving up 10 points.
  4. When the difference in the seeds was five or more from 1998-2010, the better seeds were 12-1 SU, 4-8-1 ATS (33%).  But since then, #11 VCU beat #1 Kansas, #8 Butler beat #2 Florida, #8 Kentucky beat #2 Michigan and #9 Wichita St beat Ohio St.
  5. In games with the total is less than 145, the OVER has won 73% of the time (33-12).  However was just 1-3 last year with only Kentucky/Michigan surpassing the total.

continue to follow us @TheDiRTCanon for updates and sign up and win money with us on FanDuel+DraftKings – if you’ve been playing, you’d be up several hundreds of dollars from our suggestions last week, in just the $2 tournaments.  It’s been an amazing week of basketball both college and pro – regardless of what happens in Vegas – because we are all damn fine Americans!

 

 

 

DiRTy Plays Tuesday

March 17th, 2015

News & Notes:

Below you will find a Free Roll that we have put together with DraftKings that is designed for only beginners.  You can click on any game, banner or highlighted phrase to be taken to the proper location.  This means if you have NEVER played on Draftkings before tonight is your night.  It cost you nothing to enter and if you click here or just go to our DiRTy Plays Week of March 16th page we will tell you how to win at this contest.  Once you win some money tonight, come back and visit us next week as our lineup optimizer will be ready for you to use and not only will we will analyze your daily DiRTy plays for DraftKings but Fan Duel as well, we always provide insight into why you should stick with certain players.  If you need some instructions on how to play on either DraftKings click here and for Fan Duel click here.  We will be adding a new segment next week that will also outline some of those guys that you should shy away from and why that is so look for that new segment.  Now let us me show you how we are doing as we don’t just provide info we play too so yes, we put our money where our mouth is so you can trust our analysis and results thereafter.

SPECIAL PROMOTIONS

DraftKings is having a HUGE NCAA Tournament, just click this link and enter now and win big.

DraftKings players Special PromotionFirst-time depositors are now receiving a free $3 voucher for any sport, instead of a free $2 voucher, along with their first-time deposit bonus. As a result, our “big” low entry fee tournaments are now $3 (example: the daily $2 NBA Layup is now a much smaller contest in terms of payouts, and the daily $3 NBA Sharp Shooter is the bigger tournament in its place).

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 16th, 2015 are $2,317
  • Profit for the week of March 16th is a total of $10.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results:

March16_3 March16_2 March16_1

  • We post results from Tuesday through Friday!


DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 16th, 2015 are $533.57
  • Profit for the week of March 16th i$3.00

Results from Draftkings 

March16_4

  • We post results from Tuesday through Friday

Games to Play Tonight


Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

2015 Bracket-ology Madness Locks of the Century of the Week

The idea behind our in-depth bracket, was several different combinations of formulas.  We intend to update the picks by round and to continue to offer those that might be good gambles to wager – for entertainment purposes only.  So to further help or confuse – here are some figures that we took into consideration:

  • Offensive Scoring 73% (11) averaged at least 77.0 PPG and finished among the Top 30 scoring teams in the nation. The only exceptions here were 2000 Michigan State, which averaged 74.1 PPG, 2011 UConn (72.4 PPG), 2013 Louisville (74.5 PPG) and 2014 UConn (71.9)
  • Offensive Shooting 73% (11) made at least 47% FG and ranked in the Top 30 in national FG percentage. Six of the teams ranked in the Top 10, including 2012 Kentucky (9th). But four of the previous five champions were below this mark — 2010 Duke, 2011 UConn, 2013 Louisville and 2014 UConn
  • Offensive Three-Point Shooting 73% (11) made at least 38% 3-pt FG, and all placed in the Top 40 in the nation in this category. 2002 Maryland was just below the mark (37.4%), but 2003 Syracuse (34.4%), 2011 UConn (32.9%) and 2013 Louisville (33.3%) weren’t close.
  • Defensive Scoring 67% (10) allowed fewer than 65.0 PPG. Of the five champions that allowed more than 65.0 PPG, four were ACC schools (2001 Duke, 2002 Maryland, 2005 and 2009 North Carolina).
  • Defensive Shooting 93% (14) allowed 41% FG or less with 2001 Duke just missing the cut at 41.6% FG. Five of these champions were among the Top 15 shooting defenses in the nation –2004 UConn ranked 1st, 2008 Kansas ranked 3rd, 2003 Syracuse ranked 5th, 2014 UConn ranked 8th and 2011 UConn ranked 11th.
  • Turnover Margin 80% (12) had a positive turnover margin (more takeaways than giveaways), but only 27% (4) were ranked among the nation’s Top 50 schools in this category. 2013 Louisville had the top mark here with a +5.8 TO margin, which ranked third in the nation. 2001 Duke had a strong +5.5 TO margin.
  • Double-digit favorites had been almost unbeatable over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010, going 44-1 SU & 26-16-3 ATS (62%). In the past five years (2010-14), the SU record was still 66-8

TRENDS BY SEED

  • #1 vs. #16: A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed outright in the NCAA Tournament. The #1s had covered 15 of 20 games (75%) from 2007-2011 with an average winning margin of approximately 30.0 PPG. But in the last three years, the #16s were 8-4 ATS, losing by just 15.6 PPG. The OVER was just 4-8 (33%) in 2011 to 2013, but 3-1 (75%) last season.
  • #2 vs. #15: No #2 seed had lost to a #15 outright from 2001-2011, but in the last three years Fla Gulf Coast (over Georgetown), Lehigh (over Duke) and Norfolk State (over Missouri) won outright as #15 seeds. In the past 10 years, the #15 owns a 53% ATS advantage (19-17-4). The UNDER was 0-4 in #2 vs. #15 matchups in ‘13, but was 4-0 in 2014.
  • #3 vs. #14: Even with #3 Duke losing to Mercer last year, the #3 seeds are still 29-3 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (65%) since 2007. Some of this is due to smaller spreads, with #3 seeds favored by a mere 9.5-point average since 2012 with just four of the 12 teams favored by more than 11 points. The UNDER is 20-12 (63%) in the past seven years and 32-16 (67%) dating back to 2003.
  • #4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 28-8 SU and 21-14-1 ATS (60%) over the past eight tournaments. In 2013, #13 Harvard beat #4 New Mexico outright as a 10.5-point underdog.
  • #5 vs. #12: The #12 seed has gone 14-22 SU (39%) vs. the #5 seed from 2004-2012, but is 3-1 SU (75%) in each of the last two years. Seven #5 seeds were favored by three points or less from 2010 to 2014, including two last year (Cincinnati -3 Harvard, Saint Louis -3 NC State). “A” level conference teams are on an 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS (82%) run on the #12 line, including 3-0 in 2013 (Oregon, California and Ole Miss).
  • #6 vs. #11: Even with the spreads in the last five years’ 6/11 games all 6.5 points or less, the #6 seeds went 8-11-1 ATS, with 10 of those losses also being SU defeats, including two last year. #6 seeds are now 20-16 SU & 16-19-1 ATS since ‘06.
  • #7 vs. #10: Eleven #10 seeds have won outright over the past six years, but #10 seeds are still just 21-30-1 ATS (41%) since 2002. The straight-up winner in the 7/10 matchup has covered the spread in 65 of 68 games since 1998.
  • #8 vs. #9: This series remains as close as one would expect at 34-30 in favor of the #8 seed in the past 16 years. The #8 seeds have a slight 31-30-3 ATS advantage. The OVER is usually the play in this matchup, with a strong 29- 23 record (58%) since 2002.

Funny thing about upsets – Of the 40 Round-of-64 upsets from 2005 to ’09, 24 occurred in the Friday games. The 2010-2011 tourneys had 10 lower seeded teams win on Thursday and just seven upsets on Friday, but the 2012-14 dances saw just 11 lower seeds advance on Thursday, and a whopping 17 upsets on Friday.

***

This is how our bracket shook out after the dust settled – if we did it right, we expect similar results to our overall success in college football – no one in the nation could beat us.

 

2015_bracket

 

Individual games to wager on – for entertainment purposes only:

Buffalo +4.5

Valpo +5

SF Austin +3.5

E. Wash +7.5

Davidson +2.5

If you want to tease a bet – go with this 12-team teaser with 9pts (+695):

UK -21

Notre Dame -3.5

Kansas -3

Wiscy -17

UNC -1.5

‘Zona -14

Oklahoma -4

Virginia -8

Duke -10.5

Iowa St -4.5

Gonzaga -8.5

DiRTy Plays Monday

March 16th, 2015

News & Notes:

Below you will find a Free Roll that we have put together with DraftKings that is designed for only beginners.  You can click on any game, banner or highlighted phrase to be taken to the proper location.  This means if you have NEVER played on Draftkings before tonight is your night.  It cost you nothing to enter and if you click here or just go to our DiRTy Plays Week of March 16th page we will tell you how to win at this contest.  Once you win some money tonight, come back and visit us next week as our lineup optimizer will be ready for you to use and not only will we will analyze your daily DiRTy plays for DraftKings but Fan Duel as well, we always provide insight into why you should stick with certain players.  We will be adding a new segment next week that will also outline some of those guys that you should shy away from and why that is so look for that new segment.  Now let us me show you how we are doing as we don’t just provide info we play too so yes, we put our money where our mouth is so you can trust our analysis and results thereafter.

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 15th, 2015 are $2,307
  • Profit for the week of March 9th was a total of $449.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results:

  • Check back tomorrow as we post results from Tuesday through Friday!


DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 15th, 2015 are $533.57
  • Profit for the week of March 9th was $69.42

Results from Draftkings 

  • Check back tomorrow as we post results from Tuesday through Friday

Games to Play Tonight


Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

DiRTy Plays Friday the 13th

March 13th, 2015

News & Notes:

Well it is Friday the 13th and so we wanted to do something a little different today as we look to kickoff the St. Patrick’s Day party with some NBA fun tonight.  Below you will find a Free Roll that we have put together with DraftKings that is designed for only beginners.  You can click on any game, banner or highlighted phrase to be taken to the proper location.  This means if you have NEVER played on Draftkings before tonight is your night.  It cost you nothing to enter and if you click here or just go to our DiRTy Plays Week of March 9th page we will tell you how to win at this contest.  Once you win some money tonight, come back and visit us next week as our lineup optimizer will be ready for you to use and not only will we will analyze your daily DiRTy plays for DraftKings but Fan Duel as well, we always provide insight into why you should stick with certain players.  We will be adding a new segment next week that will also outline some of those guys that you should shy away from and why that is so look for that new segment.  Now let us me show you how we are doing as we don’t just provide info we play too so yes, we put our money where our mouth is so you can trust our analysis and results thereafter.

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $2,557
  • Profit from the week of March 9ththus far is a total of $389.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results from March 12th:

  • 310 (3460 of 22986) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won x2 (Late Night Contest)
  • 7 (10440 of 86206) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won x2 (NBA Swat)
  • 6 (20 of 181) – $25 Entry/$125 Won (Quintuple Up)
  • 7 (1071 of 11494) – $25 Entry/$55 Won (Super Slam)

***Won $190 gross, spent $60 and profited $130***

DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $503.57
  • Profit for the week of March 9th thus far is $39.42

Results from March 12th, 2015

  • 331 (699 of 38260) – $3 Entry/$12.17 Won (Sharpshooter Contest)

***Won $12.17 gross, spent $3 and profited $9.17***

Games to Play Tonight


Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

DiRTy Plays Hot Hands Thursday

westbrook

March 12th, 2015

Our Hot Hands for this past week can be compared to that of the NBA MVP race.  It has been amazing to watch, night after night, five guys who have put it all on the table and gone all in as we come down the home stretch to the NBA playoffs.  The hottest guy in the NBA has been Russell Westbrook for about the last month or so, putting up ridiculous numbers.  Westbrook averaged 30 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assist dating back to January 24th of this season.  In his last 7 games, he has 6 Triple-Doubles and going into last night that had barely held off the Pelicans from taking over the 8th seed in the Western Conference.  Unfortunately for Westbrook he has had such great success at playing on a rage against the machine, he now feels that he must take over every game in order to secure victory.  While he fills the stat sheet, including the turnover category, one thing to make note of is OKC’s record when Westbrook goes for a Triple-Double.   It is .500 and so does this really mean he is an MVP.  I say absolutely not and last night’s performance against an underrated defense in the L.A. Clippers, Westbrook almost had another Triple-Double only this time he had 10 turnovers to go with his 9 rebounds and 22 points.  The Clippers came in and put a beat down on OKC and proved to the West that they are a legitimate contender and so long as OKC is without the real MVP, Durant, all they are is the 8th seed with a guy who has a high motor and fills up the stat sheet.  When Kevin Love was doing that last year, he wasn’t considered to be in the MVP race, he was vilified for not winning.  Are we simply too afraid of Westbrook to put these same parameters and connotations behind his play or is it just we are so enamored with his athleticism that we cannot fathom that OKC still might not make the playoffs with kevindurant_mvpDurant continuing to be sidelined.  However, for your daily fantasy value, it’s tough to not have him start for you.  We have found that so long as his cost is at $12,100 or less he should be on your team, anything above that you are going to sacrifice your profit in those contests.

 

Next to crack our weekly list is LeBron James.  Yes, once again he makes the Hot Hand category and it doesn’t come without criticism.  It wasn’t until earlier this week, I heard someone from ESPN finally put LeBron James in the MVP race.  I guess I too hadn’t put him in there until recently but then I listened to the actual statement made and in that soliloquy and come to realize that LeBron James is always the MVP but it is human nature to search for the next great star.  I mean look at how many TV shows are out there to find the top chef, the top child chef, the next country singer star, the next dance team, then next guy who can ride a bike with no hands.  As Chris Carter brought to television C’Mon man, all this man does is put up 26 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists per game.  James has officially taken over the Cavs all-time lead in assists and he is a small forward?!  In terms of his fantasy value he is #3 over the past 10 games and had he played in the 4th quarter of most of his last few games, he might be #1.  The only issue you have with James these days is that the Cavs are blowing teams out so bad that he doesn’t need to play down the stretch or even through long stretches in the middle of the game.  Keep him on your radar and on your lineup so long as his cost remains hovering around $11,000 on Fan Duel and $10,500 on DraftKings.


Third on this list is Anthony Davis.  Yes, “The Brow”, has been simply dominating since coming back from his shoulder injury.  He has put up some huge numbers going for over 40 earlier this week in a comeback win over the Nets.  The Pelicans are flying high right now and are looking to make a run down the stretch to sneak past OKC and get into the playoffs for the first time in years.  Anthony Davis carries this team on both sides of the court and even with Tyreke Evans going down this week, you didn’t see that change their success.  In terms of fantasy value, Davis is #2 overall and comes in averaging just over 54 Fan Duel points per game and 58 points on DraftKings.  His magic number in terms of salary value is $11,200.  If he is at or under this marker, take him and watch your team cash.  $5 might not make you holla but if you play 15 contests per day, follow our analysis and recommendations, you will cash in 12 of those contests and profit right around $60 at a minimum.  The good news is you get to do this while drinking beer and watching games with your nba playoffsbuddies, in the, what used to be an office area, now turned sports gaming arena.

  • 1st Golden State
  • 2nd Memphis
  • 3rd Portland
  • 4th Houston
  • 5th LA Clippers
  • 6th San Antonio
  • 7th Dallas
  • 8th OKC
  • 9th New Orleans
  • 10th Phoenix 

Number 4 for the week is Kawhi Leonard.  This young, budding superstar is tearing it up right now.  He has posted 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games.  The Spurs started off with a 4 games losing streak on their rodeo road trip but have since reeled off 5 straight victories and are about to surpass the Mavs for the 6th seed in the West.  Kawhi has been the leading candidate for this progress.  In terms of fantasy value, Leonard, has posted at least 45 fantasy points in all 5 contests and will continue to do so as long as Pop doesn’t feel he needs a rest.  This team is so difficult to read in terms of fantasy leagues and can be compared to the Patriots of the NFL.  You never know who is going to go off.  Their bench guys might have Mills hitting for 20, Ginobli the next night for 25, Belinelli for 18 on six three’s and so and so forth.  There are two guys to consider over the next week and those are Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard.  This combination is like Brady and Gronkowski, you can kawhi_champscount on them and the rest it’s a huge hit or miss.  Since I use math to make our decisions for us, the math says stay away from everyone else and stick with these two, they will each get you 40+ fantasy points per night over the next week’s set of games.

Last but certainly not least for this week’s Hot Hands we bring you DeAndre Jordan.  I know what you are going to say; “Where is James Harden”?  Others will say, “Where is Steph Curry”?  The reality of the situation is that, I project NBA daily fantasy value and not the best players in the game today.  I am not writing to tell you who Captain Obvious would put down here.  I crunch numbers and provide you with expected outcomes to predict the likelihood of success for your daily fantasy contests.  So why is Jordan on this list this week?  It is because he is a rebounding machine on a consistent basis.  He now has 13 consecutive games with at least 14 rebounds and in 12 of these games he had 15 or more.  In 4 of them he had more than 20 rebounds in a game.  Combine that with the fact that he is on the court more than 80% of the game, which happens to be the most in the NBA over this stretch and he is shooting 72% from the floor right now.  He might not be able to hit 50% from the free throw line but when you get 15 chances per game, you get 7 free points.  He will get 2 to 3 dunks per game and most likely will go for 16 points and 16 rebounds.  From a stats perspective, this is tremendous, Jordan doesn’t turn the ball over and is number 5 in block shots over this stretch.  The best news is that Fan Duel and DraftKings haven’t seemed to change his salary.  Their algorithms haven’t picked up on this just yet but he is going to be a 45 on your team each and every night and is usually right around $9,500.  If you want to win like we do, then you have to look at the value of that player, the percentage of your overall spend and the production you will get for him.


It’s nice that we are able to provide you with Sleepers to consider each night but the true strategy in this game is how do you keep the consistent top performers and find those mid-level guys that are going to have huge nights.  We have added a segment for just this reason.  This week I will be providing you with some insight into why our Lineups To Consider have players that we don’t discuss or provide additional stats for so you can continue to win and win big.  We will have a lineup creation tool available next week in preparation for the final weeks of the NBA season as we look to roll into baseball season next.  Stay tuned for our bracket analysis as we look to apply our basketball analysis in order to predict the results of the NCAA tournament.  Look for additional information over the coming days and Monday next week we will focus heavily on how to help you win.  Follow us on Twitter @TheDiRTCanon and get our daily news as well as progress throughout all the daily NBA games each night.


Be sure you check out the DiRTy Plays – Week of March 9th to get all the Must Haves and Sleepers for today’s best players with their projections.  We have also put up some lineups to consider for tonight’s games.  You can click here to be taken directly to this information.

 

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $2,427
  • Profit from the week of March 9ththus far is a total of $259.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results from March 11th:

  • Money_Sign250.8 (452 of 2873) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won (Late Night Contest)
  • 249.5 (498 of 2873) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won (Late Night Contest)
  • 288.4 (525 of 13793) – $1 Entry/$4 Won (After Hours Contest)
  • 286.2 (31 of 191) – $25 Entry/$125 Won (Quintuple Up)
  • 284 (2515 of 16091) – $25 Entry/$50 Won (Super Slam)

***Won $184 gross, spent $65 and profited $119***

DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $494.40
  • Profit for the week of March 9ththus far is $30.25


Results from March 11th, 2015

  • 75 (466 of 36907) – $3 Entry/$12 Won (Sharpshooter Contest)
  • 4 (2682 of 14100) – $0.25 Entry/$1.25 Won (Quarter Arcade)

***Won $13.25 gross, spent $3.25 and profited $10***

Games to Play Tonight

Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

DiRTy Plays Wednesday

March 11th, 2015

Week To Date Recap

We have started off the week with some very nice production and profit to be precise.  It takes consistency, accuracy and analysis to be able to produce in daily NBA fantasy leagues and we are proving that we can do this for you.  If you simply play our Lineups To Consider you will win 68% of the time.  If you take that and apply that to the games that we highlight for you each day, your win percentage increases to 81%.

It has been a promising week, to say the least, considering the fact that every “SuperStar” in the league today has been putting up tremendous numbers.  Games are coming down to the wire and all you have to do is sit back and read our Twitter feed @TheDiRTCanon and we provide you with the updates you need in terms of point production.  Russell Westbrook kicks off his week tonight and we expect another huge performance.  LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard captivised our lineups last night and we scored an enormous 333.9 with taking a ZERO for Ginobli as he was a late scratch after shoot around and we weren’t able to change it because the contest had already begun.  Too bad FanDuel hasn’t changed that aspect of their site yet!

One of our top performers last night was Alex Shved.  Yes, we said and we played it and guess what that was huge for our (After Hours) contents which we won on all three that we played last night.  Take a look at this video, it just goes to show you how math can be applied to predict results even when you have players that do this:

Just Aaa Bit Outsiiide!

Be sure you check out the DiRTy Plays – Week of March 9th to get all the Must Haves and Sleepers for today’s best players with their projections.  We have also put up some lineups to consider for tonight’s games.  You can click here to be taken directly to this information.

 

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 8th, 2015 are $2,308
  • Profit from the week of March 9th thus far is a total of $140.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.


DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 8th, 2015 are $484.40
  • Profit for the week of March 9th thus far is $20.25


 

Games to Play Tonight

Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

 

Clear as Mud

The Past is a statement, the Future a question.  Hopes rise and dreams flicker and die.  Love plans for tomorrow and the widowed think of yesterday.  Life is beautiful and living is hardship.  The sound of music flows down a dark street.  Like a tornado ripping thru your home and granting passage to a whole new world of colorful possibilities, only to realize it was all a delusion from the concussion you suffered because you rode your bike without a helmet – Ive seen it a hundred times.  Then the New Year began for the NFL.

Within 30min yesterday, the day moved from rumor and innuendo to surrealistic glee.  It was like watching a live chicken being dropped in a snake pit.  So with emancipated joy NFL GM’s traded away talent, signed perishable goods and threw fanbases off their bandwagons.  The Chipster trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford and further having fans asking “whats up with that?”  The thing for me about Chip is this, he’s gonna succeed or drown doing it his way and you have to admire that.  Chip is channeling his inner Sinatra and good for him, but it’s hard to have faith in his conviction that X’s and O’s are better than Jimmy’s and Joe’s – scheme is cool Chipster, but players win titles.


Frank Gore, (#EagleForLife) gets cold-feet marrying Philly and agrees to sign with Indy so he can play once again with Andre JohnsonIndy also signed Trent Cole – Chipster?  Detroit replaces $uh (who still has not signed) with Ngata, in a trade with Baltimore.  Jake Locker retires?! 4 years into the league and what, the pressure of being a backup is too much?  Expect Jake to follow another Tennessee QB – Vince Young – and attempt a comeback down the road.

But the piece-de-resistance – is Mr. Stay-Puft himself.  You know the guy, his name is Jimmy, but plays like Jane on God’s Army – He acts like a WR, dreams of being a WR, but plays TE better than he played basketball – he tries to remind us of his hoop-dreams everytime he dunked a goal-post.  He has talent, but watching the league catch up to his limitations the last two years you realize the Saints never wanted to pay him that kind of lettuce for a guy who plays basketball better than he blocks.  That’s the statement that was made by the Saints yesterday – that and $$$ – but mostly having a guy on your roster that burned bridges with his contract talks, angering the Pope in the process, and wilting like a hothouse flower in big moments – jimmy’s down.  Jimmy wanted it to be basketball all time and anytime he was touched, wanted a foul called.  The Ginger Drake is just like Brie – appears tough on the outside, but with minimal effort, exposes a soft inside, best experienced with several crack-ahs.  So, goodbye Jimmy Graham – thanks for the memories – in your place we will have an actual WR run your routes, that is difficult to rub out, takes a hit and knows how to block – his name is Marques Colston……his name is Marques Colston……his name is Marques Colston……


 

Going undefeated in any conference is adamantium – going all the way is mythical.  Only a handful teams have done the wire-to-wire:

  1. 1956 San Francisco Dons, 29-0
  2. 1957 North Carolina Tar Heels, 32-0
  3. UCLA Bruins, 30-0
    1. 1964
    2. 1967
    3. 1972
    4. 1973
  4. 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, 32-0

and since 1976 a few teams have been undefeated, never to become mythical:

  1. 1979 Indiana St Sycamores 29-0
    1. lost to Michigan St in championship game
    2. Bird v Magic I
  2. 1991 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels 30-0
    1. lost to Duke in the Final Four
  3. 2004 St. Joseph’s Hawks 27-0
    1. lost in quarter-finals of A-10 conf.tournament
  4. 2014 Wichita St Shockers 34-0
    1. lost to Kentucky in round of 32

The point of this is to show Karmic Responsibility.  It’s a real disease that infects morons and idiots, with the greatest impact felt upon the teams they claim to root for.  We have seen an exponential increase of afflictions in recent years – i.e., dope#1 gets a tattoo on his foot with the Nationals winning the World Series this year – in March! – The Nationals are out.  We’ve seen lots of other dopes get tattoos (or other nonsense) for their team, so they can claim forever to the sycophantic brigade of idiots that HE knew it, CALLED it and got the tattoo to prove it – BEFORE it happened.  Al Bundy just got a tattoo to show the guys in No Ma’aM the game he had, when he scored 4 touchdowns

So where am I going with this? Kentucky.  The Blue-blooded program still haunted by Christian Laetner – the program whose fans believe it’s their divine right to be kings of the hardwood, regardless of how seldom they win it all – have misused their Karmic Responsibility.  Kentucky Uber Alles they claim and yet the team prints shirts 31-0, more to go – then fans launch a shirt into the atmosphere to mock the gods.  A mouth-breather gets a new license plate that says 40-0.  Even Calipari got involved by saying they might put the Lakers in their tournament bracket.

Oh how we forget Prometheus and the eternal torture – You do not lampoon winning titles – the gods will smite thee as they have always done – or have you forgotten 1992.  Your failure, Kentucky fan, gave rise to Duke!  That is your eternal-anchor, worn forever around your blue-blooded neck and still you shun your Karmic Responsibility to remain humble until after victory is quenched.

Mouth-breathers and knuckle-dusters are exposed on the digital-ether for eternity, like a flag-burner – we know who you are and what you’ve done.  Violators of sports-patriotism rise up from the muck and gain upright mobility, only to be slaughtered like the swine they are – it’s the Law of Mogis .  For Kentucky, they have the talent to win – they have the height – the length – the defensive wizardry – however they are susceptible to any team that has athletic big men and a team that rebounds for fast-break points.  Kentucky has improved shooting the ball, but the Karmic Wheel O’Justice spins for thee and the Gods demand their sacrifice – it will happen and in the worst way Kentucky fan.


 

Conference tournaments are in full swing and soon Selection Sunday secedes to Madness!  Again you will have a chance to earn more than you know what to do with – unless you have Mike Tyson tastes – by picking the perfect bracket – in the Billion-Dollar-Bracket Challenge.  Odds of getting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 – that’s quintillion.

We will not claim we can help you with that – if we could, we would not assist you – but, we have been testing and tweaking our formulas in the conference tournaments, and so far we are in the 78% range of picking the winner SU – 63% against the spread.  So if you saw what we did for the college football bowl games and our overall gambling skills – for entertainment purposes only – you know this is where you need to be, to help fill out your brackets and show that jerk at the office he’s a poseur and couldn’t pick his nose with a 24k nose picker…Just don’t geaux and get a tattoo that reads “office pool winner 2015” or make t-shirts, because clearly you are who we talk about – YOU ARE THAT GUY.

In closing, do you ever remember when a few weeks of NBA basketball was this much fun to watch?  Maybe it’s more fun seeing your bankroll grow like ours has that really improves the flavah.  We work hard so you don’t have to — Play and win, it’s that simple.

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Check the RotoCanon page for the today’s DiRTy Plays!