DiRTy Plays #NBA Wed 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel & DraftKings Projections

February 24, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play

The Lineup Analzyer™ is in full affect now, just click here to check it out! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Cory Joseph is our top value play with a value on DraftKings of -1.09 and for FanDuel, he also leads this category with a value of +.78.
  • Shooting Guard – Gerald Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of -.38 and on DraftKings we have Lou Williams with a -3.42 value. He is a strong consideration for value tonight.
  • Small Forward – Marcus Morris is our leader with a -1.15 on FanDuel value and, Jeff Green is -3.47 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Jared Dudley is our top value for FanDuel at +.8 and, Serge Ibaka on DraftKings is at -5.87.
  • Center – Bismack Biyombo leads this category with a -.27 value on FanDuel and is -2.53 on DraftKings.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Goran Dragic is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 30.24 on FanDuel and we have Jordan Clarkson  with a 30.9 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – Will Barton leads this category at 30.54 projection on DraftKings and a value of -4.26 where on FanDuel we have Klay Thompson and his projection is 31.23 and a -6.57 value.
  • Small Forward – Danillo Gallinari is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 31.63 and on DraftKings,he has a projection of 8.87 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top value PF for Fanduel tonight with a projection of 31.4. Kevin Love is projected at 33.96 for DraftKings to lead this value category.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan is the top center for tonight in Fanduel with a projection of 38.07 in terms of value play.  Robin Lopez on DraftKings is our lead value play with a projection of 30.96.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook is our top PG for tonight with a projection of 50.23.
  • Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan is the top SG for tonight with a projection of 34.78.
  • Small Forward – Paul George is the top projected player at this position with a 38.97.
  • Power Forward – Draymond Green is our top PF for tonight with a projection of 33.36.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is our top projected center for tonight with a projection of 39.40.

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  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook has a top projection at PG of 54.3 tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan is our top SG for tonight at 36.47.
  • Small Forward – Paul George has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 42.71.
  • Power Forward – DeMarcus Cousins is the top projected PF tonight at 41.14.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 42.07 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential lineup stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. San Antonio vs. Sacramento (216.5 projected pts)
  2. Oklahoma City vs. Dallas (214.5 projected pts)
  3. Denver vs. LA Clippers (214 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. LA Clippers (112.5 projected pts)
  2. Golden State Warriors (111.5 projected pts)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (111.5 projected pts)
  4. Toronto Raptors (111 projected pts)
  5. Detroit Pistons (110.5 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_To download the top 3 stacks for FanDuel tonight, just click the link below:

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

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NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

draftkingsTo download the top 3 stacks for DraftKings tonight, just click the link below:

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack2

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack3

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

Injuries are updated as of 5:30 p.m. EST, be sure to confirm prior to tip!

  • injuryPau Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol (illness) has been upgraded to probable for Wednesday’s game against the Wizards, Bulls radio play-by-play announcer Chuck Swirsky reports.
  • Kawhi Leonard: UPDATE: Leonard (calf) took part in a limited practice Tuesday and remains questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Kings, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
  • Stanley Johnson: UPDATE: Johnson was diagnosed with a right shoulder sprain Wednesday and will be reevaluated in a week, Dave Pemberton of the Oakland Press reports. He is out, look for Marcus Morris to see extended minutes.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Marcin Gortat for DraftKings and for FanDuel tonight we have Mike Conley as his mid range salary makes him a strong consideration in all formats.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Darren Collison has the best chance at being a huge value play tonight even with Rondo expected to play, he has put up 24+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LAFor DraftKings tonight we are rolling with Westbrook as our top chalk play tonight as he has the best matchup and the highest projection by far tonight. Next we have Kevin Love, who has been playing as well as anyone at the PF position of late and with the Cavs looking his way on the offensive side of the ball. Jordan Clarkson is our next guy as he is our top value play with a projection over 30 at the PG position. Will Barton also leads that list tonight with a projection over 30 and is our top value play for guys over 30 at the SG position. Robin Lopez is yet another guy with a projection over 30 and leads our value play list tonight. Jeff Green had an outstanding game his last time out and with the Clippers playing the Nuggets, he should see plenty of time on the court. We combo him with Redick for the same reasons and finish this lineup with Jared Dudley, who was a 34 last night on DraftKings. Overall this lineup should reach our 285 goal for tonight.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LAFor FanDuel tonight we have Dragic and Westbrook at the PG position. These guys should easily exceed our goal of 76 points from this position tonight and in fact they will probably go for closer to 90 fantasy points tonight. Next we have Wiggins and Crawford who are projected to get 54 fantasy points but Crawford is coming off an awful game so he will be looking to score against a week Denver defense. Expect 30 from each of these guys and we are still within our threshold for goal tonight. At SF we have George and Morris and combined they will easily reach our 60 point goal and in fact should be closer to 75 fantasy points when considering their matchups and Morris’ projected extra time on the court. At PF we have Dieng and Dudley who are also hot hand players of late. Dieng has gone for at least 35 in 3 straight games and Dudley is coming off a 30+ point night last night. Look for 65+ out of these two tonight. At Center we are going with value in Robin Lopez and he should hit 40 at least!

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like to use our Lineup Analyzer™, just come here or DM us on Facebook,Twitter, Google+ or LinkedIn and we will provide some recommendations based on our FanDuel projections and/or DraftKings projections.

DiRTy Plays Wed #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS|FanDuel & DraftKings Projections

February 24, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report in excel click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report in excel click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report in excel click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in pdf click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report in excel click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Draymond Green has a 20% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • Andre Drummond has an 84% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • Steph Curry is projected to hit 4.75 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report in pdf, click here.

To download a full copy of this report in excel, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul and Steph Curry are the only players playing tonight that are averaging over 50 fantasy points during their last 5 games.
  • Russell Westbrook’s opponent is giving up 76..05 fantasy points per game and with Westbrook averaging 75% of the minutes, he should get at least 57 fantasy points tonight.
  • Jordan Clarkson is only $5,600 on DraftKings and is averaging 33.6 fantasy points over his last 5 games.

To download a copy of this report in excel, click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 24.14% of your projected team point total with an average of  2.91 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 20.37% of your projected team total with an average of 2.43 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 20.29% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.38 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 18.33% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.82 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 16.88% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.15 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util with a projected score of 288 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 23.56% of your projected team total with an average of 76.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.31% of your projected team total with an average of 69.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 18.63% of your projected team total with an average of 60.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 20.05% of your projected team total with an average of 65.0 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.45% of your projected team total with an average of 50.6 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, SF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 321.7 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Pau Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol (illness) has been upgraded to probable for Wednesday’s game against the Wizards, Bulls radio play-by-play announcer Chuck Swirsky reports.
  • Kawhi Leonard: UPDATE: Leonard (calf) took part in a limited practice Tuesday and remains questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Kings, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
  • Stanley Johnson: UPDATE: Johnson was diagnosed with a right shoulder sprain Wednesday and will be reevaluated in a week, Dave Pemberton of the Oakland Press reports. He is out, look for Marcus Morris to see extended minutes.

Don’t forget to use the Lineup Analyzer™ to get our custom recommendations, just click here. Check back at 6 p.m. EST to get our full analysis and insights from our top experts via our DiRTy Plays 5 pt Play! All of your FanDuel projections and DraftKings projections each and every day!


United Stats of #NBA #Murica

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NBA:

Portland’s backcourt lights up the scoreboard in consecutive games

CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard each scored 34 points in the Blazers’ win over the Nets on Tuesday night. It marked the second consecutive game that McCollum and Lillard each scored 30 or more points. Prior to Portland’s dynamic duo, the last pair of starting backcourt teammates to each score at least 30 points in consecutive games were San Antonio’s George Gervin and James Silas over 36 years ago. Gervin scored 55 and Silas chipped in with 32 in a Spurs win over the Pacers on January 23, 1980 and in San Antonio’s next contest, which came two days later, Gervin (39) and Silas (32) turned the trick again in a victory over the then Seattle SuperSonics.

nullWall registers his second triple-double this month

John Wall registered 16 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists leading the Wizards to a 109-89 win over the Pelicans on Tuesday. It marked the second time Wall recorded a triple-double this month, having previously done that with an 18 point, 13 rebound, 10 assist performance against the 76ers on February 5. Prior to Wall, the last Wizard to post multiple triple-double performances in a single calendar month was Chris Webber in April 1995.

Davis held to nine points after his 59-point performance

After exploding for 59 points on Sunday, Anthony Davis was held to just nine points by the Wizards on Tuesday night. The only other player in NBA history to fail to reach double-digits in points after scoring 55 or more points the previous game is Tony Parker. On November 7, 2008 Parker scored just four points in 10 minutes of action against the Heat after scoring 55 points against the Timberwolves in his previous game.

nullVucevic drops 35 on his former team

Former 76er Nikola Vucevic came back to haunt the team that drafted him, scoring 35 points in the Magic’s win over Philadelphia at the Wells Fargo Center on Tuesday. Vucevic is the fourth player to score 35 or more points in a victory against the 76ers in Philadelphia after previously playing for the team. The others to do that are Connie Dierking (41 points at Convention Hall in 1968), Charles Barkley (35 points at The Spectrum in 1993) and Larry Hughes (37 points at Wachovia Center in 2005).

nullCousins is first the King with ten 35-point games since Tiny

DeMarcus Cousins scored 39 points leading the Kings to a 114-110 win over the Nuggets on Tuesday night. It’s the 10th time that Cousins has scored 35 or more points in a game this season. He is the first Kings player with double-digit 35-point games in a single season in 41 years, since Nate “Tiny” Archibald had 10 such games for the then Kansas City-Omaha Kings during the 1974-75 season.

Jazz earn another OT win

The Jazz defeated the Rockets in overtime on Tuesday night. Utah has now won five overtime games this season, which ties the franchise record in that category. The Jazz also recorded five overtime victories in 2005-06 and 2010-11.

NHL

nullStaal brothers lead Hurricanes to victory

Jordan and Eric Staal each scored a goal for the Carolina Hurricanes in their 3-1 win over the Flyers. It’s the 10th time that the brothers have both scored in the same game during their four seasons as teammates with the Hurricanes and the second time they’ve done so this season. (Jordan and Eric each scored once in Carolina’s loss to Tampa Bay on November 1.) There were two NHL games in which they each scored a goal as opponents, when Jordan was playing for Pittsburgh and Eric for Carolina (March 11, 2010 and November 12, 2011).

nullStempniak beats Rangers for second time this season

Lee Stempniak‘s tiebreaking goal late in the second period was the game-winning goal for the Devils in their 5-2 victory over the Rangers in Newark. Stempniak scored three goals in New Jersey’s four games versus the Rangers this season and two of those goals were game-winners. Stempniak is the sixth player to score two game-winning goals for the Devils against the Rangers in one season. The others are John MacLean (1986-87), Stephane Richer (1992-93), Bobby Holik (1997-98),Brian Gionta (2005-06) and David Clarkson (2011-12).

nullForsberg single-handedly beats Maple Leafs

Filip Forsberg scored the first three goals in the Nashville Predators‘ 3-2 win at Toronto. He’s the first player in Predators history to record the first three goals in a game and the first player on any NHL team to do that since Nicklas Backstromsingle-handedly staked the Capitals to a 3-0 lead against the Lightning on December 13, 2014. Before Forsberg, the last player to score the first three goals in a game against the Maple Leafs was the Red Wings’ Steve Yzerman on November 17, 1990 at Maple Leaf Gardens. Forsberg’s natural hat trick is only the second one at any juncture in an NHL game this season. Sidney Crosby scored three consecutive goals in the Penguins’ game against Ottawa on February 2, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 6-4 Pittsburgh lead.

nullLightning win on Paquette’s shorthanded penalty-shot goal

Cedric Paquette scored a shorthanded goal on a penalty shot in the last minute of the second period and that goal was the game-winner for the Tampa Bay Lightning in its 2-1 victory against the Coyotes. He’s the first player in Lightning history to score a goal on a penalty shot while the team was shorthanded. The only other NHL players to score a shorthanded penalty-shot goal this season are Boston’s Brad Marchand (December 4 at Calgary) and Ottawa’s Zack Smith(January 18 at San Jose).

nullNielsen scores twice in Islanders win

Frans Nielsen scored a pair of goals to lead the New York Islanders to a 4-1 road win against the Minnesota Wild. It was the team-leading fourth multiple-goal game this season for Nielsen, who had recorded only seven multi-goal games in his nine previous seasons in the NHL with no more than two such games in any single season.

nullKlingberg notches three assists

John Klingberg notched his third three-point game this season by assisting on three goals for the Dallas Stars in their 5-3 victory at Winnipeg. He’s the first Stars defenseman to register three points or more in a game at least three times in one season since Sergei Zubov had four such games in 2007-08. Klingberg’s three points in Tuesday’s game give him a season total of 51, the highest by a Dallas defenseman since 2006-07, when Zubov tallied 54 points and Philippe Boucher notched 51.

nullSmith continues his strong play in February

Zack Smith scored one goal and assisted on another in the Ottawa Senators‘ 4-1 win at Edmonton. Smith registered only nine goals and two assists in 49 games this season through the end of January, but he’s set career highs for both goals (6) and points (10) in any calendar month in the 11 games he’s played in February. Smith’s previous high for a month were five goals (November and December 2011) and eight points (November 2011).

Source: Elias Says: Sports Statistics – Stats from the Elias Sports Bureau