DiRTy Plays #NBA Friday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 19, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

The Lineup Analzyer is in full affect now, just click here to check it out!Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Isaiah Canaan is our top value play with a value on FanDuel of +.4 and  for DraftKings, T.J. McConnell has a value of -1.37.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +1.03 and on DraftKings a -1.46. He is a must play tonight.
  • Small Forward – P.J. Tucker is our leader with a -.58 on FanDuel value and, Joe Johnson is -3.85 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Luis Scola is our top value for FanDuel at +.03 and, Patrick Patterson on DraftKings is at -2.83.
  • Center – Steven Adams leads this category with a -3.62 value on FanDuel and Lavoy Allen is -4.14 on DraftKings; but the reality of it is that they should not be considered unless you need to reach at center tonight.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Mike Conley is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 30.48 on FanDuel and Ricky Rubio with a 32.35 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – C.J. Mc Collum leads this category at 38.11 projection on DraftKings and a value of -4.49 where on FanDuel his projection is 35.19 and a -3.14.
  • Small Forward – Kawai Leonard is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 34.46 and Trevor Ariza on Draftkings projection of 30.75 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Thad Young is our top value PF for Fanduel tonight with a projection of 31.14.   Julius Randle is projected at 30.39 for Draftkings.
  • Center – Al Horford is the top center for tonight in Fanduel with a projection of 30.17.  Marcin Gortat in Draftkings with a projection of 31.95.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

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  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook is our top PG for tonight as he is ……
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is the top SG for tonight …..
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant is the top projected player at this position with a 43.71.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is our top player for tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns should lead all centers tonight.

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  • Point Guard – Russell Westbrook should be considered for DraftKings because of his triple-double potential.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is our top SG for tonight.
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.71.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight at 36.65.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 38.52 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential lineup stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:FanDuel_

  1. Golden State vs. Portland (223.5 projected pts)
  2. Denver vs. Sacramento (217 projected pts)
  3. Indiana vs. OKC (215 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden St Warriors (115.5 projected pts)draftkings
  2. OKC Thunder (111.5 projected pts)
  3. Houston Rockets (111.5 projected pts)
  4. Sacramento Kings (110.5 projected pts)
  5. San Antonio Spurs (107.5 projected pts)
  6. New Orleans Pelicans (107 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryKawhi Leonard – Out
  • Hassan Whiteside – Out, look for Stoudemire to get the start and contribute a ton tonight.
  • Marc Gasol – Out for the remainder of the season

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Greg Monroe on DraftKings with Thad Young leading this category for FanDuel
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Jordan Clarkson on DraftKings with Joe Johnson leading this category for FanDuel.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_AnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we have a full compliment of games and therefore a ton of options. Our top projected lineup for tonight has our chalk play of Curry. We then are adding McCollum and Rubio to this mix to add depth at guard. We also have Will Barton in that mix. Next we have Jae Crowder and Joe Johnson as they bring the 3 ball to the table for tonight. We finish with Jabri Parker and Andrew Bogut. This lineup has huge potential for tonight.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel tonight we are going to roll with Westbrook and Lowry at PG. Then we have Batum and Waiters as a a value play and Batum having a hot hand of late. Next we go value at SF with Ariza and Tucker. At PF we are going with Dieng, who is also a hot hand and compliment him with Grant as Grant has been seeing much more playing time down the stretch. Last we have our boy Rudy Gobert, who when playing next to Favors averages over 35 fantasy points per game.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

Here are 5 things to count on before Opening Day #MLB

We’ve made it, everyone. Winter is giving way to spring. Baseball is here. And while it’s still true that Spring Training stats mean nothing, Spring Training is far better than the absence of pitchers and.

So as camps open, here are five predictions of things we might see between now and Opening Day in early April.

1. Trea Turner will give the Nationals a very difficult decision.

Turner, the Nationals’ hot-shot shortstop prospect, has the kind of skill set that seems to catch eyes in Spring Training. He’s fast, he’s an exciting defensive player, and he seems rather polished for a guy who has one full season in pro ball.

And he seems to fit right in with what the Nats are looking for. Check out the moves Washington has made this winter: The acquisitions of Daniel Murphy and Ben Revere seem to indicate a move toward a more contact-based offense, away from the homers-and-strikeouts style.

That is bad news for Danny Espinosa, whose offensive game includes copious quantities of homers and strikeouts.

To be clear: Espinosa is the favorite. There would be nothing wrong with Turner getting a little more seasoning. But don’t be a bit surprised if Turner makes it a very tough call.

2. By the end of March, youíll see someone predict Adam Wainwright for Cy Young.

OK, you’ll see a lot of silly predictions this spring. Everybody wants to look smart and find the next big thing, so you’ll also see things like Jonathan Schoop as an MVP candidate (actually, that’s less ridiculous than it might sound).

Wainwright won’t be a silly call. If he’s healthy, he’ll likely be a candidate. The point here is that he’s healthy, and you can bet he’ll be motivated. The veteran right-hander will impress early in camp, will pitch well in Grapefruit League games, and when people see him pitch, they’ll start thinking big.

Maybe it’ll go well in the regular season, maybe it won’t. But the prediction is this: Waino will impress enough in Florida that Cardinals fans will allow themselves to dream.

3. There will be overreaction in Mesa.

So, so much overreaction.

Look, barring significant injuries, the Cubs are going to be very, very good in 2016. They can hit and pitch and catch the ball, and they are deep and talented and exciting.

But they’re also extremely hyped. They’re this year’s darlings (and, again, understandably so). What that means is that when things go wrong, people are going to Freak. Out.

Jason Heyward has started 30 games in the big leagues in center field, and he’ll be re-learning the position in Arizona. That’s a tough assignment. Things will go wrong. Kyle Schwarber can absolutely rake, but he’s a bit of a man without a position. Things will go wrong for him defensively. Javier Baez is trying to cut back on the strikeouts, but he’ll still whiff. Jake Arrieta threw a combined 249 1/3 innings last year. He might not show up at absolute full strength.

All of these things are fine. But to read some of the coverage, you will think the 2016 Cubs are doomed. Don’t panic when that happens. They’re not.

4. At least one big name player will be traded.

There are always minor deals in Spring Training, as guys who would otherwise be waived instead get swapped. This is part of the deal. In this case, we’re talking a real deal.

Maybe not Jim Edmonds in 1999, but maybe something even that significant. Matt Kemp is the obvious name, as there have been rumors of him being shopped. Jonathan Lucroy is another name very much in the mix.

The trade market never really got burbling this winter, though there were some interesting deals. But plenty of teams have weird fits, like the Dodgers’ abundance of outfielders, the Rays’ glut of corner bats, and the Angels’ slew of starters. Somebody will find a match.

Typically July and the offseason are the two biggest times for trades, but this year, look for a trade with significant pennant-race impact before the spring is out.

5. We’ll start to realize just how good the Dodgers might be.

Sure, a lot can go wrong. Their starting rotation is a bit hazy. Some essential players need to show they’re healthy.

But Los Angeles’ depth is ridiculous. There are so many good players even as you get down the depth chart. Guys like Enrique Hernandez, Chase Utley and Andre Ethier could start a lot of places.

As day after day of camp goes by, and the Dodgers almost never trot out a lineup that looks like a “B game” lineup, it will become clearer just how much talent there is here, and how good this team can be if even a reasonable number of things go right.

Source: Here are 5 things to count on before Opening Day

DiRTy Plays Friday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 19, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilizes a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.

To get an excel version of both projections, click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • Draymond Green has a 19% chance of hitting a triple-double tonight.
  • Andre Drummond has an 84% of hitting a double-double tonight.
  • Steph Curry is projected to hit 4.74 3’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • Curry, Westbrook, Durant & Harden are all averaging over 50 points during their last 5 games.
  • Drue Holiday is averaging 42.15 points per game over his last 5 with a salary of only $6,900
  • Gobert and Dieng are averaging over 38 fantasy points per game over their last 5, both with a salary of $6,700

 


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 23.51% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.76 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 21.17% of your projected team total with an average of 2.84 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 18.54% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.42 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 19.12% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.34 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 17.67% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.27 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, PF, SF, F, C with a projected score of 289 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 22.69% of your projected team total with an average of 72.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.48% of your projected team total with an average of 68.9 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 17.72% of your projected team total with an average of 56.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 21.74% of your projected team total with an average of 69.7 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.38% of your projected team total with an average of 48.6 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, PF, SG, SF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 321.8 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Rajon Rondo: UPDATE: Rondo is listed as probable for Friday’s game against Denver with turf toe, Sean Cunningham of ABC 10 Sacramento (KXTV) reports.
  • Kawhi Leonard: UPDATE: Leonard will not be playing in Thursday’s game against the Clippers due to calf tightness, Jabari Young of the San Antonio Express-News reports. Check back to see about tonight’s contest.
  • Marc Gasol: Is out for 4 – 6 months and will be out for the rest of the season.
  • Hassan Whiteside: UPDATE: Whiteside has been suspended for one game by the NBA and will be held out of Miami’s game against Atlanta next Friday, Jason Lieser of The Palm Beach Post reports.
  • D-Wade: UPDATE: Wade (knee) is listed as a game-time call for Friday’s game against the Hawks, Shandel Richardson of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
  • Chris Bosh: UPDATE: Bosh (calf) will not practice Wednesday and the team announced that he will not travel with the team for Miami’s game in Atlanta on Friday, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
  • Brandon Knight: UPDATE: Knight (groin) took part in some shooting drills and individual workouts at Wednesday’s practice, Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic reports. “He’s moving better,” interim coach Earl Watson said of Knight. “He’s progressing. The main thing with him will be to bring him along slowly in steps.”

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


Burning #SpringTraining questions: Who will lose 100 games? #MLB

These days, Major League Baseball is truly a 365-day-a-year endeavor — with plenty of overlap. The offseason truly never ends, as players remain unsigned even after the season begins. The so-called championship season stretches into October, followed by a postseason that will bleed into November.

And the concept of players “working their way into shape” once spring arrives is long gone; nowadays, it’s just a few weeks of recuperation and then back to fine-tuning their bodies to gain — or retain — any edge.

Still, while the grind never stops, there’s something to be said for the days pitchers and catchers report. The informal becomes just a bit more formal. Friendships are rekindled, and awkward greetings among new teammates commence.

There’s also this: Conflicts are either resolved or grow more worrisome as teams prepare to head for their permanent homes come April.

USA TODAY Sports examines the festering issues that will play out in the sunshine of Arizona and Florida.

***

It’s the aim of every team to win the final game of the season. So what’s a manager to do when his franchise has taken that goal off the table even before spring training?

That’s the quandary facing skippers of the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers.

All are rebuilding. Some are just beginning the process. Most will face the insinuation that their franchise is “tanking” in order to maximize their draft position and sweeten the pot with which they can acquire amateur players.

Somehow, four managers must pull together players who know the six weeks of spring training and the six-month season that follows almost assuredly will end in disappointment and possibly 100 losses.

The future is always an easier sell for upper management. “I think this is a great opportunity to see these young guys play and watch them develop,” Reds President Walt Jocketty said to a fan on the club’s winter caravan stop. “There’s a lot of new faces. I’m looking forward to spring training to see what we have.”

The task might be less pleasant for manager Bryan Price. He’ll have a second baseman, Brandon Phillips, that the club tried to deal to the Washington Nationals, only for Phillips to exercise his no-trade clause. His right fielder, Jay Bruce, will hear his name in trade rumors until opening day — and again weeks later if he’s still around.

His first baseman, Joey Votto, will have to put a good face on it all, knowing it might be years before he’s surrounded by a contending team again.

It will be no different in Brewers camp, where All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy knows his weeks might be numbered, or in Clearwater, Fla., where the Phillies’ Ryan Howard reaches the end of a $125 million deal facing an uncomfortable platoon.

It’s a no-win situation for all involved, but a grim reality in this era of extreme teardowns.

Source: Burning Spring Training questions: Who will lose 100 games? 

Report: At #NBA All-Star Weekend meeting, majority of owners favor ads on jerseys

Did you see it during the All-Star Game? The jerseys worn by every player had a small KIA patch on the left shoulder area, an ad about the size of a golf ball. Jersey manufacturer Adidas had a logo on the other shoulder.

Expect that to become the norm sooner rather than later.

The NBA has been inching toward this for years — this is the second year in a row with an ad on the All-Star jerseys — and when the owners met in Toronto to talk business the majority supported the idea, reports Chris Haynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

The Lakers have a 20-year, $4 billion local television deal — they can afford to take a moral high ground. Other owners who don’t have that kind of cash flow will see things differently. (That Laker broadcast deal does have ratings ties and may end up being worth a little less than estimated — Laker ratings are down 16 percent this season despite the Kobe Bryantfarewell tour.)

While the purists will scream, those little golf-ball size ads are not intrusive or going to destroy the integrity of the game — the NBA isn’t going NASCAR here, nor is this suddenly a European soccer jersey ad placement. It’s a tiny patch. If Kia and McDonalds and other league sponsors want to pay for those ads — revenue that will be split among the teams (exactly how still to be determined) and with the players — it’s not that big a deal.

I’d wager the majority of fans watching either didn’t even notice the KIA ads on the All-Star jerseys, or did and looked right past it the way they do Cheez-Its being in the Big Brother house in that show. Or that key characters driving Hyundais in The Walking Dead. O Playstation getting placement in House of Cards. It’s unobtrusive, and not a slippery slope.

And whether you and Jeanie Buss like it or not, it’s coming. Sooner rather than later.

Source: Report: At All-Star Weekend meeting, majority of owners favor ads on jerseys