DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 18, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

Back from our All-Star break and we are ready to get down to it. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – Neto is our top value play with a value on FanDuel of -1.33 and DraftKings value of -4.41. You need to watch if Trey Burke is going to play as this would eliminate him from being considered tonight due to lack of playing time.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +.04 and on DraftKings a -2.49. He is a must play tonight.
  • Small Forward – Doug McDermott is our leader with a -2.51 on FanDuel value and -2.01 on DraftKings.
  • Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -1.14 and on DraftKings he is at -3.24. If Love doesn’t play then he would be a must start so you can take 3 superstars tonight.
  • Center – Mozgov leads this category with a -7.12 value on FanDuel and -9.32 on DraftKings but the reality of it is that he should not be considered unless you need to reach at center tonight.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – CP3 is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 37.73 on FanDuel and 40.59 on DraftKings.
  • Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood leads this category at 31.39 projection on DraftKings and a value of -6.41 where on FanDuel his projection is 29.09 and a -2.41. Not a lot of options here but between Green, Hood and Crawford, those are you strong plays for tonight.
  • Small Forward – Kawai Leonard is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 35.13 and Draftkings projection of 37.48 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top value PF tonight, if he plays, he should do well with the injuries on the front line to Chicago.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan is the top center for tonight as he has been killing it so look for another double-double for tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – John Wall is our top PG for tonight as he is our top last 5 player with a nice matchup against the Jazz at the PG position.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green is the top SG for tonight from a value perspective. Beal should be considered as well as Hood but if you but if you are looking for similar production with some salary savings he is your guy.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 40.07.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top player for tonight.
  • Center – DeAndre Jordan should lead all centers tonight.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – Chris Paul should be considered for DraftKings because of his triple-double potential.
  • Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood is our top SG for tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.58.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is the top projected PF tonight at 33.38.
  • Center – Jordan also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 34.73 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavs (206 projected pts)
  2. San Antonio Spurs vs. LA Clippers (205.5 projected pts)
  3. Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards (196.5 projected pts)

Projected Points per Team:

  1. Cleveland Cavs (109.5 projected pts)
  2. San Antonio Spurs (105 projected pts)
  3. LA Clippers (100.5 projected pts)
  4. Utah Jazz (99 projected pts)
  5. Washington Wizards (98.5 projected pts)
  6. Chicago Bulls (96.5 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here is the top lineup stack for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-FD-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

draftkingsFor DraftKings here is the top lineup stack for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

 

Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryNo real injuries to report for tonight with everyone coming off a long break. Look for Love to play tonight and Tony Parker should at least split minutes with Mills but should still see the floor.
  • Be sure to check just before tip in order to ensure there are no late scratches for tonight!

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeAndre Jordan for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Brad Beal on DraftKings with Derrick Rose leading this category for FanDuel
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper isPatty Mills for both sites as he will look to split the minutes with Tony Parker and has put up huge numbers when given the chance of late.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerAs John Wall is our chalk play for tonight, we are also able to add Aldridge and Hayward to our list of high end notable players. Gortat comes in with high upside at the Center position, although DeAndre Jordan is expected to be the top center for tonight. We have Danny Green and Jamal Crawford, combined with Rodney Hood as our guards should produce well for us tonight from both a value and overall production perspective. Last we have David West and while Duncan is expected to play tonight, West should still get around 20 minutes and should get us around 20 fantasy points for tonight.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzer On FanDuel tonight, we have a great combo at PG with Wall and Irving. Only CP3 should out produce these guys tonight with Wall #1, CP3 #2 and Irving #3 but considering the price difference, Irving is a strong play here. At SG, we have Green and Hood as our top SG’s for tonight. At SF we have to eliminate James from our selection in order to fill our lineup with top projected performers as such we are rolling with Hayward and Leonard at this position tonight. Bobby Portis and Tristan Thompson lead our PF’s for tonight as we look for value there. Both are going to be wildcard plays tonight in that they could only get 40 fantasy points combined but considering the cost, they should get us over 50 fantasy points. Last we have Gortat at the Center position as we look to get 32+ fantasy points for tonight. Look for this lineup to reach 290+ fantasy points.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays Thursday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 18, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


Absolutes_1The DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2Spend_1The next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProj_1This analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.

To get an excel version of both projections, click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreak_1In this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlay_1The full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • John Wall is #1 overall and should be considered in all formats for tonight.
  • DeAndre Jordan is our top double-double player tonight.
  • JR Smith is our top 3 point shooter for tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5_1In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • John Wall, Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are the only guys over 40 during their last 5 games.
  • Jamal Crawford has been over 30 during his last 5 and is only priced at $5,100 tonight.
  • Patty Mills is only priced at $4,500 and has been just under 25 during his last 5. Keep an eye out for Parker to see if he will in fact play, if not Mills is a must start tonight.

Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 21.57% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.16 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 21.40% of your projected team total with an average of 2.19 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 22.03% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.86 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 21.61% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.84 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 13.39% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.02 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be SF, PF, F, PG, SG, G, C with a projected score of 273 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 21.52% of your projected team total with an average of 64.7 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 24.06% of your projected team total with an average of 72.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 21.31% of your projected team total with an average of 64.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 19.39% of your projected team total with an average of 58.3 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 13.73% of your projected team total with an average of 41.3 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be SG, PG, SF, PF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 309.6 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Kevin Love: UPDATE: Love (shoulder) took part in practice Wednesday and is listed as probable for Thursday’s matchup with the Bulls, Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal reports.
  • Tony Parker: Listed as a GTD tonight with an ankle injury
  • Manu Ginobli: Listed as Out tonight, should be about 3-4 more weeks before he comes back. Look for Danny Green to continue his hot streak
  • Nikola Mirotic: He will still be out but who knows who will get the start but Moore has been playing well of late.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.