February 18, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play
Back from our All-Star break and we are ready to get down to it. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- Point Guard – Neto is our top value play with a value on FanDuel of -1.33 and DraftKings value of -4.41. You need to watch if Trey Burke is going to play as this would eliminate him from being considered tonight due to lack of playing time.
- Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG with a FanDuel value of +.04 and on DraftKings a -2.49. He is a must play tonight.
- Small Forward – Doug McDermott is our leader with a -2.51 on FanDuel value and -2.01 on DraftKings.
- Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -1.14 and on DraftKings he is at -3.24. If Love doesn’t play then he would be a must start so you can take 3 superstars tonight.
- Center – Mozgov leads this category with a -7.12 value on FanDuel and -9.32 on DraftKings but the reality of it is that he should not be considered unless you need to reach at center tonight.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – CP3 is our top projected PG from a value perspective with a projection of 37.73 on FanDuel and 40.59 on DraftKings.
- Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood leads this category at 31.39 projection on DraftKings and a value of -6.41 where on FanDuel his projection is 29.09 and a -2.41. Not a lot of options here but between Green, Hood and Crawford, those are you strong plays for tonight.
- Small Forward – Kawai Leonard is our top SF from a value perspective with a FanDuel projection of 35.13 and Draftkings projection of 37.48 tonight.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top value PF tonight, if he plays, he should do well with the injuries on the front line to Chicago.
- Center – DeAndre Jordan is the top center for tonight as he has been killing it so look for another double-double for tonight.
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – John Wall is our top PG for tonight as he is our top last 5 player with a nice matchup against the Jazz at the PG position.
- Shooting Guard – Danny Green is the top SG for tonight from a value perspective. Beal should be considered as well as Hood but if you but if you are looking for similar production with some salary savings he is your guy.
- Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 40.07.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love is our top player for tonight.
- Center – DeAndre Jordan should lead all centers tonight.
- Point Guard – Chris Paul should be considered for DraftKings because of his triple-double potential.
- Shooting Guard – Rodney Hood is our top SG for tonight.
- Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 43.58.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love is the top projected PF tonight at 33.38.
- Center – Jordan also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 34.73 tonight.
Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:
In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:
- Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavs (206 projected pts)
- San Antonio Spurs vs. LA Clippers (205.5 projected pts)
- Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards (196.5 projected pts)
Projected Points per Team:
- Cleveland Cavs (109.5 projected pts)
- San Antonio Spurs (105 projected pts)
- LA Clippers (100.5 projected pts)
- Utah Jazz (99 projected pts)
- Washington Wizards (98.5 projected pts)
- Chicago Bulls (96.5 projected pts)
*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com
Point 4 – Key Injuries:
- No real injuries to report for tonight with everyone coming off a long break. Look for Love to play tonight and Tony Parker should at least split minutes with Mills but should still see the floor.
- Be sure to check just before tip in order to ensure there are no late scratches for tonight!
Point 5 – Absolutes:
This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeAndre Jordan for both sites tonight as he has the best matchup, value and projection combo for tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Brad Beal on DraftKings with Derrick Rose leading this category for FanDuel
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper isPatty Mills for both sites as he will look to split the minutes with Tony Parker and has put up huge numbers when given the chance of late.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
As John Wall is our chalk play for tonight, we are also able to add Aldridge and Hayward to our list of high end notable players. Gortat comes in with high upside at the Center position, although DeAndre Jordan is expected to be the top center for tonight. We have Danny Green and Jamal Crawford, combined with Rodney Hood as our guards should produce well for us tonight from both a value and overall production perspective. Last we have David West and while Duncan is expected to play tonight, West should still get around 20 minutes and should get us around 20 fantasy points for tonight.
To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
On FanDuel tonight, we have a great combo at PG with Wall and Irving. Only CP3 should out produce these guys tonight with Wall #1, CP3 #2 and Irving #3 but considering the price difference, Irving is a strong play here. At SG, we have Green and Hood as our top SG’s for tonight. At SF we have to eliminate James from our selection in order to fill our lineup with top projected performers as such we are rolling with Hayward and Leonard at this position tonight. Bobby Portis and Tristan Thompson lead our PF’s for tonight as we look for value there. Both are going to be wildcard plays tonight in that they could only get 40 fantasy points combined but considering the cost, they should get us over 50 fantasy points. Last we have Gortat at the Center position as we look to get 32+ fantasy points for tonight. Look for this lineup to reach 290+ fantasy points.
To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.
If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.