DiRTy Plays #NBA Wednesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 10, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an amazing game to cap off the night in Golden State as we had Harden and Curry on display. Both players ended up going for over 50 fantasy points yet again and it was fun to watch as the Warriors jumped out to a lead with Harden getting it rolling in the 2nd quarter to get it back within reach by half time. The 3rd quarter was back and forth but Harrison Barnes put down 14 points in the fourth quarter, including a three to finish the game that cost thousands of fantasy players from staying in the bubble for the cash! Another player that we highly touted yesterday was John Wall and he had an amazing performance with 28 points and 17 assists but it was Rodney Hood who took down the notables yesterday. Bogut was the top Sleeper pick just as we predicted for his value, coming through with over 40 fantasy points. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings Patty Mills with an overall value of -1.25 and Ish Canaan on FanDuel with a positive 1.22. Both players are projected over 20 so this could be great value plays in order to get 2 or 3 top tiered players.
  • Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG tonight with a positive value of 1.32 on FanDuel and -2.73 on DraftKings. Since Ginobli is out, look for him to continue to contribute between 20 and 35 fantasy points each night.
  • Small Forward – Joe Johnson is our top value play at -3.76 on DraftKings and Aminu on FanDuel at -2.43. Johnson is a nice play for this position on DraftKings because this position, aside from the top salary players, tends to produce the least amount of fantasy points each night. Aminu has been hit or miss with a 58% confidence rating but is projected at 23.82 tonight.
  • Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -.32 and Mike Scott tops this list on DraftKings with a value of -4.23. This means that most of the PF’s on DraftKings are significantly over priced so taking a chalk play here makes more sense for just that reason as Scott only has a projection of 14.73.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Biyombo with a projection of 21.03 and a value of -2.37 where he leads this category on FanDuel with a positive .21 and a projection of 19.64 and a salary of only $3,700.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – For FanDuel we have Rubio with a projection of 30.5 and an overall value of -5.2 where DraftKings his projection is 32.29 and a value of -4.91.
  • Shooting Guard – On DraftKings we have Evan Turner coming in with a projection of 30.54 and a value of -3.06 which is #2 overall. For FanDuel we have to go all the way down to James Harden who has a projection of 49.73 and a value of -6.3. This means Harden should be a chalk play for tonight on FanDuel but that there are also a ton of mid salary guys that could produce value for you tonight.
  • Small Forward – FanDuel we go all the way down to #23 where LeBron James sits on our value list as he is projected to score 46.33 fantasy points and a value of -7.22. This means he would need to score 53.55 points to be worthy of his assigned salary and score enough to be on a winning lineup, that is within reach for sure. On DraftKings his projection is 49.38 with a value of -9.42 which puts him at 58.8, also within reach so another potential chalk play tonight.
  • Power Forward – Thad Young leads us here for DraftKings with a projection of 33.13 and a value of -8.27. On FanDuel his projection is 30.74 and a value of -6.01. Both of these should be achievable marks for him to hit on either site.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is our leader for FanDuel with a projection of 37.03 and a -8.64 value or a Needed Points™ of 45.94 to hit his value and he has been around that mark for the past month. Gorgui Jieng is our DraftKings center just in front of Towns with a projection of 30.6 tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

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  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader with a top projection for this position with a projection of 40.2. He should easily surpass that number again tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden has our top projection for tonight at 49.73 fantasy points for tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 46.33 and he has been right around that mark in each of his last 5 games.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight with a projection of 39.77 tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is the top projected center for tonight at 37.03 fantasy points.

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  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is our leader for projection at PG on DraftKings as well with a projection of 44.39 fantasy points tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is the top projected player on DraftKings tonight at 54.14 fantasy points tonight.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 49.38.
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight at 42.15.
  • Center – Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 39.78 tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns (221 projected pts)
  2. Sacramento Kings vs. Philadelphia 76ers (218.5 projected pts)
  3. Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers (214 projected pts)

Top 5 Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden State Warriors (119 projected pts)
  2. Sacramento Kings (111.5 projected pts)
  3. Cleveland Cavs (111.5 projected pts)
  4. Portland Trailblazers (109.5 projected pts)
  5. Detroit Pistons & Philadelphia 76ers (107 projected pts)

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

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draftkingsFor DraftKings here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

NBA-DK-LineupAnalyzer_Stack1

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Point 4 – Key Injuries:

  • injuryJimmy Butler: He will be sidelined for 3 – 4 weeks so look for E’Twan Moore to start in his place.
  • Marc Gasol: Has a broken foot and is out indefinitely. At this point Ryan Hollins is projected to start in his place as this could be a season ending injury for Gasol.
  • Kobe Bryant: UPDATE: Bryant (shoulder) is considered questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers, Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News reports.
  • Brandon Knight: Will not play until after the All-Star Break so Goodwin will start again tonight.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: He will be out until after the All-Star break so look for Stanley Johnson to continue to get his minutes with huge upside again tonight.
  • Tobias Harris: UPDATE: Harris (ankle) did not go through shootaround, but he still may have a chance to play Wednesday against the Spurs, John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Damian Lillard on both sites for tonight as the Rockets have given up a ton to the PG position of late but it would be hard to not have Curry in your lineup.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Reggie Jackson on DraftKings and Klay Thompson on FanDuel.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Jordan Clarkson on DraftKings and D’Angelo Russell on FanDuel. The backcourt for the Lakers should produce against the Cavs tonight but look for Kobe to put on a show as this is his last night in Cleveland tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)

DK_LineupAnalyzer_LateNightFor the late night contest, the last before we break for the All-Star games, we are rolling with Curry & Harden as our top Chalk plays again tonight as both come off 50+ fantasy nights last night against each other. We are going cheap with Gerald Henderson and Mirza Teletovic, both have been over 20+ fantasy points of late on a consistent basis. Ed Davis at PF is also a nice value play and then another huge value guy is Speights at Center tonight with the Warriors coming off a back to back and a huge potential for a blowout in this contest. We finish off this lineup with Devin Booker and Markief Morris both of which have a chance to get a ton of garbage points in this game where a lot of threes are projected.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)

FD_LineupAnalyzer_LateNightFor FanDuel late night, we are going with Curry, Lillard and Harden as the top chalk plays. How can we afford those guys, let’s breakdown the rest. Devin Booker at SG should get between 25 and 35 fantasy points tonight. Rolling with Ariza and Brewer at SF is really your best combination with an overall projection of around 42 fantasy points and upside reaching into the 50’s. Last we have Markief Morris who is averaging just under 40 fantasy points over his last 5 games and Ed Davis, who should be a rebounding machine against the Rockets tonight. Last we are going to go with Bogut at center who is coming off one of his best season of the year last night and with a blowout potential, he might only get to his 20 point average but with the other chalk plays, this should be a solid play.

To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

What 5 Things You Need To Know On Wednesday

1. Influence:

About a decade ago, Eric Musselman recalls, NBA players doing elaborate two-ball dribbling drills before a game would elicit laughter.

“I can vividly remember being in Orlando with Coach (Chuck) Daly and trying to do two-dribbles with guys and they wouldn’t do it,” said Musselman, a longtime NBA coach who’s now coaching the University of Nevada men’s team. “Then you try to explain to them, ‘Hey look, this is going to help with your hand speed. This is going to help with ball speed, and this is going to make you ball-friendly.’ I used those three terms, and guys wouldn’t do it or another assistant coach would kind of snicker……

Read: How the Golden State Warriors are influencing college basketball

2. Who’s Next?

With the NBA trade deadline right around the corner and rumors heating up, which five players are most likely to be dealt?

Despite the 2015-16 NBA season being quiet in terms of trades so far, we could see that change in an instant with the February 18 deadline right around the corner. The rumors are heating up, the speculation is getting more ridiculous, and the trade machine experimentation is crazier than ever. If we step away from that craziness for a minute, though, which five players are most likely to be traded?

Read: NBA Trade Deadline: The 5 players most likely to be dealt

3. Steve Smith HOF?

Steve Smith has been one of the most explosive young wideouts in NFL history, one of the most productive old receivers in NFL history and perhaps the greatest small wide receiver in NFL history.

As the 2016 Pro Bowl captains, Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin recently vouched for Smith as a legend who will some day join them in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

No doubt I see him there,” Irvin said at the Pro Bowl, via theRavens‘ official website. “He’s an incredible player, he’s been an incredible player for a long time. There’s no doubt in my mind that, one day, he shall definitely wear a gold jacket.”

Read: Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin: Steve Smith is a Hall of Famer – NFL.com

4. Phil Is Back:

Month No. 1 on the PGA Tour has invited questions about bounce–backs (Rory McIlroy) and burnout (Jordan Spieth). But one question looms largest as we pause amid the Phil Swing — last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, outside San Diego, and this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open — during which the Tour visits Mickelson hometowns 1 and 1A, respectively.

How much does Lefty have left?

Read: Phil Mickelson Is Flashing His Old Form — Good and Bad | Golf.com

5. Harbaugh Pokin’ The Bear?

hi-res-22f76e9cb28f61e43eaa8b561dbea204_crop_north

Aside from the typical drama that often accompanies national signing day, it’s been a relatively quiet month for college football since the 2015 season officially came to an end.

Unlike a year ago, there haven’t been any surprise returnees likeCardale Jones, any juicy graduate transfer speculation as there was with Everett Golson and Braxton Miller or even any new head coaches making a significant splash by generating publicity at their new schools. Even national signing day was relatively quiet, with the usual suspects of schools—Alabama, Florida State, LSU and Ohio State—winding up withthe nation’s top-ranked classes.

Read: The Growing Feud Between Jim Harbaugh and the SEC Is Great for College Football

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DiRTy Plays Wednesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 10, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.

To get an excel version of both projections, click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Draymond Green with a 20% chance of hitting this mark tonight.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is Andre Drummond with a 83% projected rating.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Steph Curry with a projected 4.71 three’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.


Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • James Harden and Steph Curry are the only players over 50 with Harden #1 at 57.45.
  • Anthony Davis, LeBron James and DeAndre Jordan over 45+ fantasy points.
  • Kobe Bryant has the lowest salary at $6,200 on DraftKings for this full list and is ranked #7 over the last 5 games with a DraftKings average of 43.25 fantasy points per game during that span.

Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 23.28% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.83 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 20.78% of your projected team total with an average of 1.96 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 18.41% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.47 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 19.30% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.82 PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 18.32% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.27 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, PF, SF, F, C with a projected score of 298 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 22.25% of your projected team total with an average of 70.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 22.09% of your projected team total with an average of 69.6 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 17.79% of your projected team total with an average of 56 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 20.96% of your projected team total with an average of 66 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.9% of your projected team total with an average of 47.9 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, SF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 309.6 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Jimmy Butler: He will be sidelined for 3 – 4 weeks so look for E’Twan Moore to start in his place.
  • Marc Gasol: Has a broken foot and is out indefinitely. At this point Ryan Hollins is projected to start in his place as this could be a season ending injury for Gasol.
  • Kobe Bryant: UPDATE: Bryant (shoulder) is considered questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers, Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News reports.
  • Brandon Knight: Will not play until after the All-Star Break so Goodwin will start again tonight.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: He will be out until after the All-Star break so look for Stanley Johnson to continue to get his minutes with huge upside again tonight.
  • Tobias Harris: UPDATE: Harris (ankle) did not go through shootaround, but he still may have a chance to play Wednesday against the Spurs, John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.