February 10, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, it was an amazing game to cap off the night in Golden State as we had Harden and Curry on display. Both players ended up going for over 50 fantasy points yet again and it was fun to watch as the Warriors jumped out to a lead with Harden getting it rolling in the 2nd quarter to get it back within reach by half time. The 3rd quarter was back and forth but Harrison Barnes put down 14 points in the fourth quarter, including a three to finish the game that cost thousands of fantasy players from staying in the bubble for the cash! Another player that we highly touted yesterday was John Wall and he had an amazing performance with 28 points and 17 assists but it was Rodney Hood who took down the notables yesterday. Bogut was the top Sleeper pick just as we predicted for his value, coming through with over 40 fantasy points. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- Point Guard – On DraftKings Patty Mills with an overall value of -1.25 and Ish Canaan on FanDuel with a positive 1.22. Both players are projected over 20 so this could be great value plays in order to get 2 or 3 top tiered players.
- Shooting Guard – Danny Green leads our value play at SG tonight with a positive value of 1.32 on FanDuel and -2.73 on DraftKings. Since Ginobli is out, look for him to continue to contribute between 20 and 35 fantasy points each night.
- Small Forward – Joe Johnson is our top value play at -3.76 on DraftKings and Aminu on FanDuel at -2.43. Johnson is a nice play for this position on DraftKings because this position, aside from the top salary players, tends to produce the least amount of fantasy points each night. Aminu has been hit or miss with a 58% confidence rating but is projected at 23.82 tonight.
- Power Forward – Tristan Thompson is our top value for FanDuel at -.32 and Mike Scott tops this list on DraftKings with a value of -4.23. This means that most of the PF’s on DraftKings are significantly over priced so taking a chalk play here makes more sense for just that reason as Scott only has a projection of 14.73.
- Center – For DraftKings we have Biyombo with a projection of 21.03 and a value of -2.37 where he leads this category on FanDuel with a positive .21 and a projection of 19.64 and a salary of only $3,700.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – For FanDuel we have Rubio with a projection of 30.5 and an overall value of -5.2 where DraftKings his projection is 32.29 and a value of -4.91.
- Shooting Guard – On DraftKings we have Evan Turner coming in with a projection of 30.54 and a value of -3.06 which is #2 overall. For FanDuel we have to go all the way down to James Harden who has a projection of 49.73 and a value of -6.3. This means Harden should be a chalk play for tonight on FanDuel but that there are also a ton of mid salary guys that could produce value for you tonight.
- Small Forward – FanDuel we go all the way down to #23 where LeBron James sits on our value list as he is projected to score 46.33 fantasy points and a value of -7.22. This means he would need to score 53.55 points to be worthy of his assigned salary and score enough to be on a winning lineup, that is within reach for sure. On DraftKings his projection is 49.38 with a value of -9.42 which puts him at 58.8, also within reach so another potential chalk play tonight.
- Power Forward – Thad Young leads us here for DraftKings with a projection of 33.13 and a value of -8.27. On FanDuel his projection is 30.74 and a value of -6.01. Both of these should be achievable marks for him to hit on either site.
- Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is our leader for FanDuel with a projection of 37.03 and a -8.64 value or a Needed Points™ of 45.94 to hit his value and he has been around that mark for the past month. Gorgui Jieng is our DraftKings center just in front of Towns with a projection of 30.6 tonight.
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader with a top projection for this position with a projection of 40.2. He should easily surpass that number again tonight.
- Shooting Guard – James Harden has our top projection for tonight at 49.73 fantasy points for tonight.
- Small Forward – LeBron James is the top projected player at this position with a 46.33 and he has been right around that mark in each of his last 5 games.
- Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight with a projection of 39.77 tonight.
- Center – Karl-Anthony Towns is the top projected center for tonight at 37.03 fantasy points.
- Point Guard – Steph Curry is our leader for projection at PG on DraftKings as well with a projection of 44.39 fantasy points tonight.
- Shooting Guard – James Harden is the top projected player on DraftKings tonight at 54.14 fantasy points tonight.
- Small Forward – LeBron James has a top projection for SF’s tonight at 49.38.
- Power Forward – Anthony Davis is the top projected PF tonight at 42.15.
- Center – Towns also leads the Centers on DraftKings with a projection of 39.78 tonight.
Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:
In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Top 3 Over/Under Matchups:
- Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns (221 projected pts)
- Sacramento Kings vs. Philadelphia 76ers (218.5 projected pts)
- Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers (214 projected pts)
Top 5 Projected Points per Team:
- Golden State Warriors (119 projected pts)
- Sacramento Kings (111.5 projected pts)
- Cleveland Cavs (111.5 projected pts)
- Portland Trailblazers (109.5 projected pts)
- Detroit Pistons & Philadelphia 76ers (107 projected pts)
*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com
Point 4 – Key Injuries:
- Jimmy Butler: He will be sidelined for 3 – 4 weeks so look for E’Twan Moore to start in his place.
- Marc Gasol: Has a broken foot and is out indefinitely. At this point Ryan Hollins is projected to start in his place as this could be a season ending injury for Gasol.
- Kobe Bryant: UPDATE: Bryant (shoulder) is considered questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers, Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News reports.
- Brandon Knight: Will not play until after the All-Star Break so Goodwin will start again tonight.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: He will be out until after the All-Star break so look for Stanley Johnson to continue to get his minutes with huge upside again tonight.
- Tobias Harris: UPDATE: Harris (ankle) did not go through shootaround, but he still may have a chance to play Wednesday against the Spurs, John Denton of OrlandoMagic.com reports.
Point 5 – Absolutes:
This information is based on the overall projection of each player as well as the opponent they are playing against. We combine those factors and determine the best plays broken down by salary range. To get a full copy of this report for DraftKings click here, for FanDuel click here.
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Damian Lillard on both sites for tonight as the Rockets have given up a ton to the PG position of late but it would be hard to not have Curry in your lineup.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Reggie Jackson on DraftKings and Klay Thompson on FanDuel.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Jordan Clarkson on DraftKings and D’Angelo Russell on FanDuel. The backcourt for the Lakers should produce against the Cavs tonight but look for Kobe to put on a show as this is his last night in Cleveland tonight.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)
For the late night contest, the last before we break for the All-Star games, we are rolling with Curry & Harden as our top Chalk plays again tonight as both come off 50+ fantasy nights last night against each other. We are going cheap with Gerald Henderson and Mirza Teletovic, both have been over 20+ fantasy points of late on a consistent basis. Ed Davis at PF is also a nice value play and then another huge value guy is Speights at Center tonight with the Warriors coming off a back to back and a huge potential for a blowout in this contest. We finish off this lineup with Devin Booker and Markief Morris both of which have a chance to get a ton of garbage points in this game where a lot of threes are projected.
To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration (Late Night Only)
For FanDuel late night, we are going with Curry, Lillard and Harden as the top chalk plays. How can we afford those guys, let’s breakdown the rest. Devin Booker at SG should get between 25 and 35 fantasy points tonight. Rolling with Ariza and Brewer at SF is really your best combination with an overall projection of around 42 fantasy points and upside reaching into the 50’s. Last we have Markief Morris who is averaging just under 40 fantasy points over his last 5 games and Ed Davis, who should be a rebounding machine against the Rockets tonight. Last we are going to go with Bogut at center who is coming off one of his best season of the year last night and with a blowout potential, he might only get to his 20 point average but with the other chalk plays, this should be a solid play.
To download a full copy of this lineup, click here.
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