February 9, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, we had D. Rose sit at the last minute which caused a ton of last second changes in order to get Pau Gasol on your lineup. We now know that Butler is going to be out for 3 – 4 weeks as such Moore is going to be a highly owned player until the salary gets to around $6,000 but that is your marker for him.
Top Value Lineup
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- Point Guard – On DraftKings Raul Neto with Trey Burke sitting out, his value has risen to -2.28. On FanDuel we have J. Bayless for Milwaukee at a -1.58.
- Shooting Guard – Langston Galloway leads this category at -3.78 for DraftKings value and -.65 for FanDuel value.
- Small Forward – At this position we have Justice Winslow as the top value play at -3.09 on DraftKings and -1.75 on FanDuel.
- Power Forward – For FanDuel we have Jabri Parker at -3.24 and then for DraftKings we have Booker for the Jazz at -4.92.
- Center – For DraftKings we have Robin Lopez at -6.31 and then Andrew Bogut at -3.99 for FanDuel
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – In terms of value for DraftKings we have Michael Carter Williams at -4.2 with a projection of 31.20. On FanDuel we have I. Thomas at a -7.75 value and a projection of 34.25.
- Shooting Guard – For DraftKings we have James Harden at -8.7 with a projection of 55.43 so Chalk play there. For FanDuel we have Klay Thompson at -2.38 and a projection of 33.85.
- Small Forward – there isn’t a ton of value at this position but for DraftKings we have Giannis Antetekounmpo at -10.82 and a projection of 30.58 and for FanDuel we have Kawai Leonard at -7.8 with a projection of 30.52.
- Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category for us with a DraftKings projection of 32.78 and a value of -8.02 where on FanDuel we have a value of -6.85 and a projection of 30.95.
- Center – Greg Monroe leads this category with a value of -7.9 on DraftKings and a projection of 32.30 where FanDuel we have a projection of 30.48 and an overall value of -11. It should be noted that he is also our highest projected center for tonight.
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader, with a huge projected team total, he should be considered in all formats on FanDuel.
- Shooting Guard – James Harden is listed as GTD for some reason but we don’t have any new info on him so expect him to play and score in bunches against the Warriors.
- Small Forward – Chandler Parsons has been on fire of late and his salary is still at a price point conducive to his production.
- Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category and he should be able to to produce 35+ fantasy points tonight against the Spurs, assuming the game is kept relatively close.
- Center – Greg Monroe should lead all Centers tonight in scoring.
- Point Guard – John Wall should be a strong consideration over Curry but they are close in price and performance Wall has been slightly ahead of late.
- Shooting Guard – James Harden enough said.
- Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo is a strong play here tonight.
- Power Forward – Draymond Green is the top projected guy for tonight.
- Center – Greg Monroe is the top guy for tonight but I like Rudy Gobert to have another 40+ fantasy night tonight.
Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:
In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Top Over/Under Matchups:
- Houston vs. Golden State (229.5 projected pts)
- Boston vs. Milwaukee (208.5 projected pts)
- Washington vs. New York (207 projected pts)
- San Antonio vs. Miami (194.5 projected pts)
- Utah vs. Dallas (187 projected pts)
Top Projected Points per Team:
- Golden State – 122
- Houston – 107.5
- Boston – 106
- New York – 104
- Washington – 103
- Milwaukee – 102.5
- San Antonio – 101
- Dallas – 94
- Miami – 93.5
- Utah – 92.5
*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com
Point 4 – Key Injuries:
- Hassan Whiteside: UPDATE: Whiteside (ankle) is considered a game-time call for Tuesday’s matchup with the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Whiteside did not practice Monday, but coach Erik Spoelstra said he was encouraged by how Whiteside looked, noting that the center “could play big minutes” Tuesday night. While Whiteside’s status won’t be determined until just before game time, if he does play, he could be in for a significant minutes load off the bench, assuming Spoelstra sticks with Amar’e Stoudemire as his starting center.
- Justice Winslow: UPDATE: Deng did not go through shootaround due to illness and is considered questionable to play Tuesday night against the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Both Deng and Udonis Haslem were absent because of illness, and coach Erik Spoelstra said he’s unsure at this point whether either player will be available. Look for an update closer to game-time, but if Deng is held out, expect Gerald Green and Justise Winslow to see increased roles.
- Trey Burke: UPDATE: Burke (illness) will not play in Tuesday’s game against Dallas, Jody Genessy of Deseret News reports.
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry with a Needed Points of 57.23 on DraftKings and 66 on FanDuel. He has topped those numbers 22% of the time so far.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Trevor Ariza on FanDuel and Greg Monroe on DraftKings
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez on DraftKings as he remains at $5,100 and should get around 30 fantasy points. For FanDuel we have Tony Parker as the top guy to have with a projection of 26.25.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
For DraftKings tonight we have our chalk plays as Steph Curry and James Harden as our Chalk plays for tonight. They are the number 1 and 3 projected players according to our system and they have the highest projected total from Vegas tonight. In order to save and afford these two players we are also adding Raul Neto, who is our top PG value play as his salary will assist us in building the proper lineup. Remember that Trey Burke is out so Neto is going to see 20 – 25 minutes so he should get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points tonight. Next we have Chandler Parsons and Justice Winslow. Given that Loul Deng didn’t participate at shoot around today due to illness, it is suspected that Winslow will get the start and play around 30 minutes. Parsons on the other hand has just been on fire so we are rolling with the hot hand there. Robin Lopez is our center for value purposes and then Jared Sullinger, who has played well over his last two games should get a solid 25+ fantasy points again tonight. Last we have Amare’ Stoudemire and that is based on the fact that Hassan Whiteside is dealing with an ankle injury and is a GTD tonight. To download a full copy of this analysis, just click here.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
For FanDuel tonight we have Curry and Neto as our PG’s tonight as Curry is our top Must Have and then Neto is extreme value at only $3,800 tonight. Next we have our top 2 projected SG’s in James Harden and Klay Thompson. Again considering the matchup and expected points from this contest, both players should have solid outings and out perform their projections. At SF we are going cheap and value here with Cory Brewer and Justice Winslow. With Deng expected to sit out tonight and Brewer should see the floor if this game gets out of hand, that means bench points for Brewer. At PF we are going with Amir Johnson to get a solid 20 fantasy points in order for us to take another solid play in Draymond Green. He is a triple-double machine and should get close to 50 fantasy points tonight. Last we have our value Center in Robin Lopez. All in all this lineup should get us to around 337 fantasy points tonight.
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