DiRTy Plays #NBA Tuesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 9, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, we had D. Rose sit at the last minute which caused a ton of last second changes in order to get Pau Gasol on your lineup. We now know that Butler is going to be out for 3 – 4 weeks as such Moore is going to be a highly owned player until the salary gets to around $6,000 but that is your marker for him.

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Top Value Lineup

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Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings Raul Neto with Trey Burke sitting out, his value has risen to -2.28. On FanDuel we have J. Bayless for Milwaukee at a -1.58.
  • Shooting Guard – Langston Galloway leads this category at -3.78 for DraftKings value and -.65 for FanDuel value.
  • Small Forward – At this position we have Justice Winslow as the top value play at -3.09 on DraftKings and -1.75 on FanDuel.
  • Power Forward – For FanDuel we have Jabri Parker at -3.24 and then for DraftKings we have Booker for the Jazz at -4.92.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Robin Lopez at -6.31 and then Andrew Bogut at -3.99 for FanDuel

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – In terms of value for DraftKings we have Michael Carter Williams at -4.2 with a projection of 31.20. On FanDuel we have I. Thomas at a -7.75 value and a projection of 34.25.
  • Shooting Guard – For DraftKings we have James Harden at -8.7 with a projection of 55.43 so Chalk play there. For FanDuel we have Klay Thompson at -2.38 and a projection of 33.85.
  • Small Forward – there isn’t a ton of value at this position but for DraftKings we have Giannis Antetekounmpo at -10.82 and a projection of 30.58 and for FanDuel we have Kawai Leonard at -7.8 with a projection of 30.52.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category for us with a DraftKings projection of 32.78 and a value of -8.02 where on FanDuel we have a value of -6.85 and a projection of 30.95.
  • Center – Greg Monroe leads this category with a value of -7.9 on DraftKings and a projection of 32.30 where FanDuel we have a projection of 30.48 and an overall value of -11. It should be noted that he is also our highest projected center for tonight.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

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  • Point Guard – Steph Curry is the leader, with a huge projected team total, he should be considered in all formats on FanDuel.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is listed as GTD for some reason but we don’t have any new info on him so expect him to play and score in bunches against the Warriors.
  • Small Forward – Chandler Parsons has been on fire of late and his salary is still at a price point conducive to his production.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads this category and he should be able to to produce 35+ fantasy points tonight against the Spurs, assuming the game is kept relatively close.
  • Center – Greg Monroe should lead all Centers tonight in scoring.

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  • Point Guard – John Wall should be a strong consideration over Curry but they are close in price and performance Wall has been slightly ahead of late.
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden enough said.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo is a strong play here tonight.
  • Power Forward – Draymond Green is the top projected guy for tonight.
  • Center – Greg Monroe is the top guy for tonight but I like Rudy Gobert to have another 40+ fantasy night tonight.

Point 3 – Lineup Stack Potentials:

In this section we will breakdown the Vegas Odds and provide you with some potential player stacks that will accommodate for the salary restrictions for both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Top Over/Under Matchups:

  1. Houston vs. Golden State (229.5 projected pts)
  2. Boston vs. Milwaukee (208.5 projected pts)
  3. Washington vs. New York (207 projected pts)
  4. San Antonio vs. Miami (194.5 projected pts)
  5. Utah vs. Dallas (187 projected pts)

Top Projected Points per Team:

  1. Golden State – 122
  2. Houston – 107.5
  3. Boston – 106
  4. New York – 104
  5. Washington – 103
  6. Milwaukee – 102.5
  7. San Antonio – 101
  8. Dallas – 94
  9. Miami – 93.5
  10. Utah – 92.5

*This information was provided by http://www.fivedimes.com

FanDuel_For FanDuel here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

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draftkingsFor DraftKings here are the top 3 lineup stacks for tonight. To download a copy of our Lineup Analzyer™ version of each, just click the link below.

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Point 4 – Key Injuries:
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  • Hassan Whiteside: UPDATE: Whiteside (ankle) is considered a game-time call for Tuesday’s matchup with the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Whiteside did not practice Monday, but coach Erik Spoelstra said he was encouraged by how Whiteside looked, noting that the center “could play big minutes” Tuesday night. While Whiteside’s status won’t be determined until just before game time, if he does play, he could be in for a significant minutes load off the bench, assuming Spoelstra sticks with Amar’e Stoudemire as his starting center.
  • Justice Winslow: UPDATE: Deng did not go through shootaround due to illness and is considered questionable to play Tuesday night against the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.ANALYSIS: Both Deng and Udonis Haslem were absent because of illness, and coach Erik Spoelstra said he’s unsure at this point whether either player will be available. Look for an update closer to game-time, but if Deng is held out, expect Gerald Green and Justise Winslow to see increased roles.
  • Trey Burke: UPDATE: Burke (illness) will not play in Tuesday’s game against Dallas, Jody Genessy of Deseret News reports.

 

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry with a Needed Points of 57.23 on DraftKings and 66 on FanDuel. He has topped those numbers 22% of the time so far.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Trevor Ariza on FanDuel and Greg Monroe on DraftKings
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez on DraftKings as he remains at $5,100 and should get around 30 fantasy points. For FanDuel we have Tony Parker as the top guy to have with a projection of 26.25.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzer_1For DraftKings tonight we have our chalk plays as Steph Curry and James Harden as our Chalk plays for tonight. They are the number 1 and 3 projected players according to our system and they have the highest projected total from Vegas tonight. In order to save and afford these two players we are also adding Raul Neto, who is our top PG value play as his salary will assist us in building the proper lineup. Remember that Trey Burke is out so Neto is going to see 20 – 25 minutes so he should get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points tonight. Next we have Chandler Parsons and Justice Winslow. Given that Loul Deng didn’t participate at shoot around today due to illness, it is suspected that Winslow will get the start and play around 30 minutes. Parsons on the other hand has just been on fire so we are rolling with the hot hand there. Robin Lopez is our center for value purposes and then Jared Sullinger, who has played well over his last two games should get a solid 25+ fantasy points again tonight. Last we have Amare’ Stoudemire and that is based on the fact that Hassan Whiteside is dealing with an ankle injury and is a GTD tonight. To download a full copy of this analysis, just click here.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzer_DC1For FanDuel tonight we have Curry and Neto as our PG’s tonight as Curry is our top Must Have and then Neto is extreme value at only $3,800 tonight. Next we have our top 2 projected SG’s in James Harden and Klay Thompson. Again considering the matchup and expected points from this contest, both players should have solid outings and out perform their projections. At SF we are going cheap and value here with Cory Brewer and Justice Winslow. With Deng expected to sit out tonight and Brewer should see the floor if this game gets out of hand, that means bench points for Brewer. At PF we are going with Amir Johnson to get a solid 20 fantasy points in order for us to take another solid play in Draymond Green. He is a triple-double machine and should get close to 50 fantasy points tonight. Last we have our value Center in Robin Lopez. All in all this lineup should get us to around 337 fantasy points tonight.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays Tuesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 9, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Big Play Potential

BigPlayThe full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Draymond Green with a 20% chance of hitting this mark tonight.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is John Wall with a 55% projected rating.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Steph Curry with a projected 4.66 three’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.


 

Hot Hands

Last5In this section we will provide a quick breakdown of those players that have the highest, last 5 game average for fantasy points so you can see if there are players that are playing well of late that you should consider when building your lineup(s) for today’s contests.

Some key highlights from this information are as follows:

  • James Harden and John Wall are the only players currently over the 50 point marker.
  • Curry, Green and Thompson are ranked 3, 4 & 5 respectively on this list with Green having the best matchup for tonight.
  • Rudy Gobert is listed at 37.5 with a DraftKings salary of only $6,600 tonight
  • Robin Lopez has the lowest salary at $5,100 that is over 30 fantasy points per game over his last 5.

 

Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 22.21% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.13 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 23.41% of your projected team total with an average of 2.01 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 19.8% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.38 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 20.54% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.96  PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 14.31% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.04 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be SG, PG, G, PF, SF, F, C with a projected score of 294 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.

  • PG – Represents 22.37% of your projected team total with an average of 71.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 22.06% of your projected team total with an average of 70.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 18.73% of your projected team total with an average of 60.1 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 23.65% of your projected team total with an average of 75.9 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 13.19% of your projected team total with an average of 42.3 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PF, PG, SG, SF, C and the number for tonight is projected to be 321 to cash in main tournaments at 95% chance of winning.


 

Key Injuries

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Hassan Whiteside: UPDATE: Whiteside (ankle) is considered a game-time call for Tuesday’s matchup with the Spurs, Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post reports.
  • Tim Duncan: UPDATE: Duncan (knee) is officially listed as questionable for Tuesday’s matchup with Miami.
  • Nene Hilario: UPDATE: Hilario (calf) went through a full practice Monday, J. Michael of CSN Mid Atlantic reports.
  • Trey Burke: UPDATE: Burke (illness) will not play in Tuesday’s game against Dallas, Jody Genessy of Deseret News reports.
  • Terrance Jones: UPDATE: Jones (concussion) is doubtful for the Rockets’ last three games before the All-Star break, Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com reports.
  • John Henson: UPDATE: Henson (back) did not practice Monday and will not play Tuesday against the Celtics, Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


What You Need To Know About The New Dumb – #NBA Tuesday

1.

It was last year, February 7th, that we lost Dean Smith.  So, I thought I would share again our thoughts on a great man.  A man that we seem to really be missing right now in life and basketball – from the New Dumb in politics, to the New Dumb in Sacramento and the New Dumb of rewarding horrible free-throw shooters.  Maybe we can steel ourselves to collectively improve our standing and follow Dean’s example.

A Lion Never Roars After a Kill…

The American Dream is a national ethos, it is a set of ideals that include the pursuit of happiness, life and liberty.  It is said that life should be better, richer and fuller for everyone with the opportunity for each according to ability or achievement, regardless of social class or circumstances of birth.

If life is a dream, as some suggest, intertwined with beauty and desperation, then could the passing of Dean Smith be a curtain call on the deeply held beliefs of what the American Dream means to some of us?  In no way am I saying that it is dead or dying, but you would have to concede that it is not the same as it was 50 years ago – hell not even 10 or 15 years ago, and maybe 9/11 changed all of that.  But the passing of Dean Smith might represent more than just an Old Lion – he may just symbolize what we might have lost.  Or maybe he reminds us, of all that is good within and to pursue what makes us happiest……

Continue Reading: 09 | February 2015 | A Lion Never Roars After A Kill | The DiRT Canon Blog

2.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has come around on the so-called “hack-a-Shaq” strategy of intentionally fouling poor free-throw shooters away from the ball, and plans to make rule changes to eliminate this as a strategic tactic once the current season is finished.

Read: Kobe joins LeBron, says ‘hack-a-Shaq’ rules should remain unchanged | FOX Sports

3.

Ex-NBA bad boy hits up his former coach Phil Jackson on Twitter after New York fires Derek Fisher

Former NBA star Dennis Rodman is a man of many interests. He’s dabbled in acting, flirted with professional wrestling and dipped his toe in the waters of freelance international diplomacy, famously becoming BFFs with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

Is a return to his basketball roots next?

Read: Dennis Rodman to Phil Jackson, New York Knicks after Derek Fisher fired: “I can coach” – CBS News

4.

The messy marriage between George Karl and the Sacramento Kings looks to be coming to an end.

Fifth on the NBA’s all-time coaching wins list, Karl was hired midway through last season with the stated purpose of giving the long-awful Kings some stability, or at least some watchability. But Karl almost immediately began squabbling with Sacramento owner Vivek Ranadive over DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings’ lone standout. Karl wanted to trade him, Ranadive said no, and it got to the point where Cousins was cursing out Karl in the locker room after games, leading to team meetings and hand-wringing and other signs of a team in disarray. Oh, and there’s a 21-31 record after four straight losses, with the Kings giving up at least 120 points in their last three (they gave up 128 points on Friday to the Nets, owners of one of the league’s worst offenses).

And now this: Point guard Rajon Rondo said Monday that only “three or four guys” show up to the team’s optional shootarounds.

Read: The Kings are a mess, and reportedly will fire George Karl soon – The Washington Post

5.

images#NBA United Stats of America

James’s first triple-double of the season is an odd one

LeBron James scored 21 points to go along with 10 rebounds and 10 assists in the Cavaliers’ win over the Kings on Monday. But despite his triple-double, James did not lead Cleveland on Monday in points, rebounds or assists. Kyrie Irving led the team with 32 points and 12 assists and Iman Shumpert grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds. It’s the first triple-double in which a player did not lead his team in any of the categories in which he reached double digits since Penny Hardaway had one of those for Phoenix in 2001.

It’s the 36th time that James has scored 20 points in a regular-season triple-double, by far the highest total among active players. In fact, LeBron has done that as often as the active players with the two next-highest totals combined (Russell Westbrook 19, Kobe Bryant 17).

nullAnother 15-assist game for Rondo

Rajon Rondo has had at least 15 assists in each of his last three games, including 16 in the Kings’ loss to the Cavaliers on Monday. Rondo has tied his longest streak of 15-assist games as a professional, which he’s done four other times since the start of the 2010-11 season. The only other NBA player with even one such streak over the last six seasons is Steve Nash, who had a three-game stretch like that for Phoenix in December 2010.

nullJohnson nails long three-pointer to defeat Nuggets

Joe Johnson‘s 27-foot three-pointer turned a deficit into a win as time expired in Brooklyn’s win over Denver on Monday. That’s the longest behind-to-ahead buzzer-beater in the NBA either this season or last season. The last one as long as Johnson’s was a 29-foot shot by Denver’s Randy Foye against the Clippers in February 2014.

nullKobe turns it on

Kobe Bryant made three three-pointers in a span of 72 seconds in the fourth quarter of the Lakers’ loss in Indianapolis on Monday. It’s the first time in just over 10 years that Bryant hit three three-pointers in such a short span in the fourth quarter or later; he made three in 72 seconds as part of a 50-point game against the Clippers on January 7, 2006.

nullDurant overcomes slow start

Kevin Durant scored 25 points in the second half of Oklahoma City’s win in Phoenix on Monday, for his second-highest total in a half this season. Durant scored 27 points in the second half against Utah on December 13.

nullCrawford has found fountain of youth

Jamal Crawford scored 23 points, tying J.J. Redick for the team high in the Clippers’ overtime win in Philadelphia on Monday. Crawford, who turns 36 years old in March, is the oldest NBA player to score 20 or more points in five straight games since Kobe Bryant did so in the fall of 2014. The only other Clippers player to have such a streak after his 35th birthday was Sam Cassell, with a six-game streak in January 2006.

Head coach Fisher sacked by Knicks

Derek Fisher was dismissed as head coach of the Knicks on Monday after a season-and-a half on the job. Fisher’s 40-96 record gave him the second-lowest winning percentage of any head coach in team history (.294). The only other coach of the Knicks with a win percentage below .300 was Larry Brown, who had a 23-59 record in 2005-06, his only season with the team (.280).

One factor in Fisher’s downfall was Carmelo Anthony‘s inability to stay healthy. Anthony missed 49 games during Fisher’s tenure and the Knicks won only seven of those contests, averaging 91.0 points per game.

Raptors a team-best 14-1 in last 15 games

The Raptors won in Detroit on Monday for their 14th win in their last 15 games. It’s the first time that Toronto has won 14 times in a 15-game span which leaves the Wizards, Magic, Timberwolves and Pelicans as the only current NBA teams that have never had a 14-1 or 15-0 stretch within one season.

nullVucevic takes over in OT

Nikola Vucevic led all players with 28 points, seven of which came in overtime, in Orlando’s win in Atlanta on Monday. That’s the most points that Vucevic has scored in any overtime period he’s played in the NBA.

Pelicans protect the ball

The Pelicans committed only four turnovers in their win in Minnesota on Monday, tying the lowest total in a regular-season game in team history, done previously in 2007. In the playoffs, New Orleans committed only three turnovers in a first round win over the Lakers in 2011.

Road teams go 3-0 in overtime

There were three overtime games in the NBA on Monday and all three were won by the road team-the Clippers in Philadelphia, Magic in Atlanta and Trail Blazers in Memphis. That ties the most overtime road wins on one day in NBA history, done five previous times, most recently on February 26, 2010.

Source: Elias Says: Sports Statistics – Stats from the Elias Sports Bureau

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