February 8, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- Point Guard – On DraftKings we have Jeff Teague and with Schroder listed as a GTD, this makes an even better play with an overall value of -4.13. On FanDuel we have Ish Canaan at -1.39 and that will depend on whether Ish Smith plays or not.
- Shooting Guard – Kyle Korver with a -2 overall value for DraftKings and a 1.02 positive on FanDuel but his salary is declining as he isn’t seeing as much time on the floor of late.
- Small Forward – Kent Bazemore is the guy to have on DraftKings with a -3.69 value where we have CJ Miles on FanDuel as he comes in with an overall value of -1.2
- Power Forward – It’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. He is the top value play and has a projection of over 30 on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. His player exposure should be in the 90% range.
- Center – For DraftKings we have Asik at -2.16 and on FanDuel we have Roy Hibbert at -2.17. I don’t like either of these plays but if you need a cheap play at Center these would be your considerations.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – For DraftKings it is Jeff Teague with a projection of 31.87 and overall value of -4.13 but on FanDuel we have Derrick Rose with an overall value of -4.58 and a projection of 31.65. Remember no Butler tonight so Rose is a strong play tonight.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -3.49 on DraftKings with a projection of 35.51 and on FanDuel he has an overall value of -1.48 and a projection of 32.65.
- Small Forward – Paul George leads this category with an overall value of -7.19 on DraftKings and -5.41 on FanDuel. His projections are 43.81 on DraftKings and 40.26 on FanDuel. He has scored 40+ fantasy points in 2 straight.
- Power Forward – As we have already said, it’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. His projections are 33.17 on DraftKings and 30.87 on FanDuel.
- Center – Brook Lopez is the DraftKings center for this category at -8.47 and a projection of 38.33. On FanDuel we have Al Horford at a -6.87 and a projection of 30.41.
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – Derrick Rose is the top PG to have tonight because of value for his price and Butler being out. Russell Westbrook will most likely score the most points for this position but his salary is climbing quickly.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis is our top SG tonight with a great matchup, he should be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer. We also like DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo to have a shot at going for over 40 fantasy points as well.
- Small Forward – Kevin Durant is the top SF tonight as he will put up another 55+ fantasy point performance tonight but Paul George is not far behind and should be the 2nd best producer at this position tonight.
- Power Forward – Marvin Williams is the top guy to have for both value and projection. If you are looking for chalk here, going with Anthony Davis is your best play as he should score the most fantasy points at this position tonight.
- Center – Karl-Anthony Towns should be the most productive Center on DraftKings with Cousins most likely to lead this category on FanDuel. Dieng is a solid play at center on either site for value and projection.
The stack considerations for tonight are in the SAC vs. CLE and OKC vs. PHO matchups as they are the two highest projected totals according to Vegas. Both come in at 215 and 217 projected total points. In terms of individual team scores, Vegas has Cleveland as the top scoring team at 115 and OKC just behind at 114 points.
- Point Guard – Jeff Teague should be a 35+ fantasy point performer and has great value tonight.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer tonight.
- Small Forward – Paul George has the best value for the production. He will be #2 in fantasy production here to Kevin Durant but for the extra $2,200 in savings they won’t be that far a part with a potential blowout in Phoenix.
- Power Forward – Marvin Williams is your guy.
- Center – Gorgui Dieng is the best value and projection as he should be #3 in fantasy scoring tonight behind Towns and Lopez.
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Russell Westbrook with a 15% of hitting this category tonight. He might do it in 3 quarters.
- The top Double-Double player for tonight is Drummond as he is up to an 83% chance tonight.
- The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Kyle Lowry at 2.84 with George right behind him.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Hot Hands Last 5 Games:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
Some key highlights from this would be that Westbrook, Durant and Anthony Davis are the only players over 50 at this time. Some key highlights would be Marvin Williams at 35.35 over his last 5 and Dieng at 38.2. Both are nice plays tonight.
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Kevin Durant as he will look to score and score often against a terrible Phoenix team.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Gorgui Dieng as we look to take advantage of his relatively low salary again tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Zach Lavine on DraftKings and Stanley Johnson on FanDuel.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
Rather than describe this particular lineup, I figured I would try something a bit different and just give you a few of the top lineups for various reasons and let you check out more than one lineup from us today.
To Download a copy of each of these lineups just click the link below:
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
On FanDuel, there are a lot of solid plays from Aaron Gordon to Stanley Johnson. You can take chalk plays of Westbrook and Durant or go value with Teague and Rose so you can spread the wealth to all positions. As we have done for DraftKings, here are 5 lineup considerations. To download a copy of each of the top 5, just click the link below:
- Jimmy Butler – He is out tonight, look for Moore to get the start and Rose to play 40+ minutes tonight.
- Marc Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol is considered questionable for Monday’s game against the Blazers due to soreness in his right foot, Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal reports.
- Rudy Gay: UPDATE: Gay (ankle) will try to play Monday against the Cavs, CSN Bay Area’s James Ham reports.
- Dennis Schroder: UPDATE: Schroder suffered a laceration to his chin during Sunday’s matchup with the Magic, which forced him to receive five stitches following the game, Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- D’Angelo Russell: UPDATE: Russell (groin) is being viewed as a game-time decision for Monday’s tilt with the Pacers, Mike Trudell of Lakers.com reports.
If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.