DiRTy Plays #NBA Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 8, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • Point Guard – On DraftKings we have Jeff Teague and with Schroder listed as a GTD, this makes an even better play with an overall value of -4.13. On FanDuel we have Ish Canaan at -1.39 and that will depend on whether Ish Smith plays or not.
  • Shooting Guard – Kyle Korver with a -2 overall value for DraftKings and a 1.02 positive on FanDuel but his salary is declining as he isn’t seeing as much time on the floor of late.
  • Small Forward – Kent Bazemore is the guy to have on DraftKings with a -3.69 value where we have CJ Miles on FanDuel as he comes in with an overall value of -1.2
  • Power Forward – It’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. He is the top value play and has a projection of over 30 on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. His player exposure should be in the 90% range.
  • Center – For DraftKings we have Asik at -2.16 and on FanDuel we have Roy Hibbert at -2.17. I don’t like either of these plays but if you need a cheap play at Center these would be your considerations.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – For DraftKings it is Jeff Teague with a projection of 31.87 and overall value of -4.13 but on FanDuel we have Derrick Rose with an overall value of -4.58 and a projection of 31.65. Remember no Butler tonight so Rose is a strong play tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -3.49 on DraftKings with a projection of 35.51 and on FanDuel he has an overall value of -1.48 and a projection of 32.65.
  • Small Forward – Paul George leads this category with an overall value of -7.19 on DraftKings and -5.41 on FanDuel. His projections are 43.81 on DraftKings and 40.26 on FanDuel. He has scored 40+ fantasy points in 2 straight.
  • Power Forward – As we have already said, it’s all about Marvin Williams tonight. His projections are 33.17 on DraftKings and 30.87 on FanDuel.
  • Center – Brook Lopez is the DraftKings center for this category at -8.47 and a projection of 38.33. On FanDuel we have Al Horford at a -6.87 and a projection of 30.41.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

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  • Point Guard – Derrick Rose is the top PG to have tonight because of value for his price and Butler being out. Russell Westbrook will most likely score the most points for this position but his salary is climbing quickly.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis is our top SG tonight with a great matchup, he should be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer. We also like DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo to have a shot at going for over 40 fantasy points as well.
  • Small Forward – Kevin Durant is the top SF tonight as he will put up another 55+ fantasy point performance tonight but Paul George is not far behind and should be the 2nd best producer at this position tonight.
  • Power Forward – Marvin Williams is the top guy to have for both value and projection. If you are looking for chalk here, going with Anthony Davis is your best play as he should score the most fantasy points at this position tonight.
  • Center – Karl-Anthony Towns should be the most productive Center on DraftKings with Cousins most likely to lead this category on FanDuel. Dieng is a solid play at center on either site for value and projection.

The stack considerations for tonight are in the SAC vs. CLE and OKC vs. PHO matchups as they are the two highest projected totals according to Vegas. Both come in at 215 and 217 projected total points. In terms of individual team scores, Vegas has Cleveland as the top scoring team at 115 and OKC just behind at 114 points.

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  • Point Guard – Jeff Teague should be a 35+ fantasy point performer and has great value tonight.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 40+ fantasy point performer tonight.
  • Small Forward – Paul George has the best value for the production. He will be #2 in fantasy production here to Kevin Durant but for the extra $2,200 in savings they won’t be that far a part with a potential blowout in Phoenix.
  • Power Forward – Marvin Williams is your guy.
  • Center – Gorgui Dieng is the best value and projection as he should be #3 in fantasy scoring tonight behind Towns and Lopez.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Russell Westbrook with a 15% of hitting this category tonight. He might do it in 3 quarters.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is Drummond as he is up to an 83% chance tonight.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Kyle Lowry at 2.84 with George right behind him.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Hot Hands Last 5 Games:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

Last5

Some key highlights from this would be that Westbrook, Durant and Anthony Davis are the only players over 50 at this time. Some key highlights would be Marvin Williams at 35.35 over his last 5 and Dieng at 38.2. Both are nice plays tonight.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Kevin Durant as he will look to score and score often against a terrible Phoenix team.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Gorgui Dieng as we look to take advantage of his relatively low salary again tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Zach Lavine on DraftKings and Stanley Johnson on FanDuel.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerRather than describe this particular lineup, I figured I would try something a bit different and just give you a few of the top lineups for various reasons and let you check out more than one lineup from us today.

To Download a copy of each of these lineups just click the link below:

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FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerOn FanDuel, there are a lot of solid plays from Aaron Gordon to Stanley Johnson. You can take chalk plays of Westbrook and Durant or go value with Teague and Rose so you can spread the wealth to all positions. As we have done for DraftKings, here are 5 lineup considerations. To download a copy of each of the top 5, just click the link below:

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Key Injuries:injury

  • Jimmy Butler – He is out tonight, look for Moore to get the start and Rose to play 40+ minutes tonight.
  • Marc Gasol: UPDATE: Gasol is considered questionable for Monday’s game against the Blazers due to soreness in his right foot, Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal reports.
  • Rudy Gay: UPDATE: Gay (ankle) will try to play Monday against the Cavs, CSN Bay Area’s James Ham reports.
  • Dennis Schroder: UPDATE: Schroder suffered a laceration to his chin during Sunday’s matchup with the Magic, which forced him to receive five stitches following the game, Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
  • D’Angelo Russell: UPDATE: Russell (groin) is being viewed as a game-time decision for Monday’s tilt with the Pacers, Mike Trudell of Lakers.com reports.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

What You Need To Know…#SB50 Weekend Update

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1.

Orange Crushed:

Everyone was betting on Carolina. All the experts were picking Cam and company. Good thing the powers that be decided to go ahead and play the game on the field anyway. After all the intensity of the regular season, Super Bowl 50 was pretty anti-climatic and one of the more boring ones. The highlight video alone is less than 4 minutes long letting you know there weren’t that many. You can check it out here.

Denver must not have known they were supposed to lay down as the underdog. The Broncos opened up the scoring as Manning drove the offense easily down the field before settling for a field goal. 3-0 Denver with the oldest quarterback in Super Bowl history looking healthy and sharp.

Read: Super Bowl 50 High Anticipation Low Return for Cam Newton’s Panthers Plus those ads


On Thursday, three days before the winningest quarterback in NFL history would play The Last Game (or at least the game we’re sure is the last one), he lined up his offense around the defensive 20-yard line and barked out signals. This would be the last full series of plays in the Super Bowl 50 practice week for Denver at Stanford Stadium, their home for the week … and maybe the last full series of practice plays in Peyton Manning’s life.

The sun was nearly touching the top of the west stands of the stadium on this beautiful California winter afternoon, creating an image of a sunset and lengthening shadows on the field as Manning directed traffic.

“Be alert! Be alert!” he called out, motioning Emmanuel Sanders across the formation. And Manning shouted out the play, which began with “Z Motion!” And then the snap, and then … nothing. No one open.

“One more time!” Manning yelled, annoyed. “Do it again!”

And the offense did, Sanders trolling the back of the end zone and Manning hitting him for a touchdown.

Read: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos beat Panthers in Super Bowl 50 | The MMQB with Peter King


The dirty secret about all Super Bowls is that ultimately they’re just football games. Take away the halftime shows, the $25 glasses of wine, the tired commercials with tired celebrities doing tired lines, all of it, and these Super Bowls have to rise and fall on the games themselves. Last year, the Super Bowl seemed like the pinnacle of American popular culture because Left Shark and the dead Nationwide kid and all the other memes nestled themselves comfortably alongside a taut, terrific game between two all-time teams at the peak of their powers. Cap it off with one of the most infamous boneheaded play calls in the history of the sport at the end, against the most hated (and successful) team, and damn, that’s entertainment.

That is not what happened this year.

Read: Broncos’ Super Bowl win wasn’t pretty, but it was dominant.

+ Denver wins Super Bowl despite low yardage total

The Broncos defeated the Panthers, 24-10, to win Super Bowl 50 despite gaining only 194 yards. That was the lowest yardage total by any of the 50 teams to win a Super Bowl. In fact, only seven teams that lost a Super Bowl gained fewer than 200 yards; Denver’s was the lowest total by any team in the big game, win or lose, since the Giants were held to 152 yards when the Ravens won Super Bowl XXXV 15 years ago.

+ High-scoring Panthers neutralized by Broncos defense

Carolina led the NFL with an average of 31.3 points per game during the 2015 regular season. Denver was the sixth team to win a Super Bowl by holding the league’s highest-scoring team to 10 or fewer points. The others were Green Bay vs. Kansas City, 35-10 (following the 1966 season); Kansas City vs. Minnesota, 23-7 (1969); L.A. Raiders vs. Washington, 38-9 (1983); Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, 21-10 (2005); and, ironically, Seattle vs. Denver, 43-8, just two years ago.

+ #2 outplays #1 in Super Bowl

Von Miller, who was named the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl 50, had 2.5 sacks againstCam Newton on Sunday. As even Stephen Colbert noted last night, Miller was the second pick in the 2011 draft, chosen immediately after Newton. Colbert failed to mention that there was no other Super Bowl in which the top two picks from the same draft faced each other. But it did happen in the 1942 NFL Championship Game, when the Redskins defeated the Bears, 14-6. Ki Aldrich, the top pick in the 1939 draft, played for Washington, and future Hall of Famer Sid Luckman, taken second in 1939, played for Chicago.

null+ For this one time, Manning is carried by his mates

Peyton Manning, the first quarterback in 30 years to start a Super Bowl with a sub-70 passer rating during the season, passed for 141 yards and no touchdowns in the Broncos’ win. Inevitably it will be said that Denver and its top-ranked defense reached and won Super Bowl 50 not because of its quarterback but despite him. Only three other QBs started and won a Super Bowl passing for less than 150 yards and no TDs: Bob Griese (following the 1973 season), John Elway (1997), and Ben Roethlisberger (2005).

But let’s give Manning his due: Each of his three previous Super Bowl starts was made for a team that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in defense (that is, yards allowed): the 2006 Colts (21st), 2009 Colts (18th), and 2013 Broncos (19th). Only two other quarterbacks started even two Super Bowls for “bottom-half” defensive teams: Jim Kelly with the Bills (27th in both 1991 and 1993) and Tom Brady with the Patriots (24th in 2001, 31st in 2011).

null+ Broncos’ kicker is flawless in Super Bowl run

Finally, let’s not overlook the role of Brandon McManus in Denver’s run to the Super Bowl. McManus made all 10 of his field-goal attempts during the postseason. Only one other player in NFL history kicked as many as 10 field goals in one postseason: Adam Vinatieri was 14-for-15 for Indianapolis in the playoffs following the 2006 season. The previous record for FGs without a miss in one postseason was nine, by Chuck Nelson of the Vikings (1987).

After 38 Seasons, Wade Phillips Is A Guy With A Super Bowl Ring

2.

Between Cam Newton’s unraveling and Peyton Manning’s brand smooching, you might be having a hard time finding something to be unabashedly happy about in the wake of Super Bowl 50. Allow me to submit Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as a target for adulation.

What do you think about when someone says Wade Phillips’s name? The question is easy to answer this morning: he’s the engineer behind the fearsome Denver defense that spent the last month making all-world quarterbacks look like rattled third-stringers.

Read: After 38 Seasons, Wade Phillips Is A Guy With A Super Bowl Ring

3.

Cam Newton had a dreadful performance in Sunday’s Super Bowl. The league’s MVP followed that up with an even uglier showing in his press conference.

Newton, who abruptly walked off the podium, was unenthusiastic, brief and clearly dejected. Understandably so.

Newton, however, drew some criticism from NFL Media’s Deion Sanders after his presser.

Read: Deion Sanders sums up Cam Newton’s ugly press conference perfectly | FOX Sports

4.

On the field, the Super Bowl might not have been the most fast-paced of all time, but at least the ads provided some extra entertainment. Here’s a look at the commercials that rose above the rest.

Read: What were the best ads of Super Bowl 50?

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5.

Marshawn Lynch, Done?

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6.

After the Golden State Warriors fended off the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 116-108 win, Ron Adams, Golden State’s assistant coach and defensive guru shrugged, “I don’t know how to stop him. I coached him and I don’t know how to stop him.”

Adams was referring to Kevin Durant, whom he worked with as an assistant in Oklahoma City from 2008 to 2010. That’s quite a concession from Adams, known to be one of if not the top defensive assistant in basketball. The admiration is mutual. Before the game, the two warmly greeted each other. The 27-year-old Durant said of the 68-year-old Adams, “We always had a great relationship. He was hard on me. He expected a lot out of me and that’s the type of coaching I like and he never shied away from how he thought.” Durant continued, “Always spoke his mind to me so I’m always going to respect him, always going to be family to me. Whatever team he goes to man, he imposes his will and just changed the whole thought process of the team. He’s a great assistant.”

Read: NBA: Kevin Durant can’t overcome Warriors

null+ Curry and Warriors on record pace after beating Thunder

The Warriors equaled the best 50-game start in NBA history by defeating the Thunder, 116-108, in Oakland. Golden State improved to 46-4 on the season, which is tied with the 1966-67 76ers for the best start to any season in league history. In fact, only one other team besides Golden State and Philadelphia won 46 of 50 games at any point of a season – the Mavericks had a 46-4 stretch in the 2006-07 campaign.

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 26 points and 10 assists in their victory over Oklahoma City. Including Saturday’s contest, Golden State has earned a win in each of the last 20 games that Curry has compiled at least 20 points and 10 assists, including a 7-0 record in such games this season.

null+ Durant posts big numbers versus defending champs

Kevin Durant had a huge night in a losing effort, scoring a game-high 40 points for the Thunder while securing 14 rebounds, one shy of the team lead. In the last 40 seasons (1976-77 to 2015-16), only two other players totaled at least 40 points and 14 rebounds in a game against the defending NBA champions. Karl Malone (45 points, 17 rebounds) did that in 1995 against the Rockets, and Blake Griffin (43 points, 15 rebounds) did so in 2014 versus the Heat.

DiRTy Plays Monday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 8, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 23.65% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.49 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 20.39% of your projected team total with an average of 1.88 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 18.88% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.63 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 17.89% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.41  PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 19.18% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.12 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, C, SF, PF, F

 

  • PG – Represents 222.66% of your projected team total with an average of 71.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.30% of your projected team total with an average of 67.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 18.41% of your projected team total with an average of 58.3 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 19.23% of your projected team total with an average of 60.9 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 18.41% of your projected team total with an average of 42.6 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, C, SF


injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Jimmy Butler: UPDATE: Butler (knee) will miss Monday’s game against Charlotte but has not been ruled out through the All-Star break at this point, The Associated Press’ Jon Krawczynski reports.
  • Kevin Love: UPDATE: Love (thigh) is probable to play Monday against Sacramento, Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com reports.
  • Ish Smith: Has a sprained ankle, did not play on Saturday but no news for tonight just yet.
  • Tyreke Evans: UPDATE: Evans (knee) will remain out through the All-Star break, Pelicans radio announcer Sean Kelley reports.
  • Rudy Gay: Did not play on Sunday and is listed as a GTD for tonight. The key thing of note here is that in his place, Omri Casspi did not start for some reason so even if he doesn’t play, it will be a toss up in terms of where you can find value here.
  • Kobe Bryant: UPDATE: Bryant is listed as questionable for Monday’s game against the Pacers due to right shoulder soreness, Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News reports.
  • Julius Randle: UPDATE: Randle (ankle) is listed as probable for Monday’s game against the Pacers, Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News reports.
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: UPDATE: Caldwell-Pope (groin) will be held out until after the All-Star break as he deals with a muscle strain, David Mayo of MLive.com reports. This means you take Stanley Johnson unless his salary gets above $6,000 as he will be huge value for you and highly owned in tournament play.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.