February 7, 2016
Absolute Player Breakdown
The DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:
- $7,000 & Above = MustHave
- $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
- Under $5,200 = Sleeper
Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.
The next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.
Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.
This analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.
In this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.
Big Play Potential
The Big Play Potential utilizes a system of ranking each players potential in terms of achieving a Triple-Double, Double-Double and projected 3’s made. This utilizes a combination of what each player has done for the current season along with what their opponent has done relative to these categories, broken down by position.
The top triple-double rated player for today is Rajon Rondo with a 12% rating today. For Double-double we have DeAndre Jordan as he has boosted his rating to 60% as of this morning. Last we have projected 3’s and we have JJ Reddick with a projected 2.48 threes today.
For the full report to download, click here.
Below is a quick breakdown of players sorted by their last 5 game average. This list comprises those players that have been playing hot of late.
Today, we don’t have any players that are averaging over 50 fantasy points as such the projected score to win has decreased all the way down to 297.4 on FanDuel and 268 on DraftKings. Good luck as you prepare for the SuperBowl later today but get your fix on NBA prior to kick-off.
Injuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:
- DeMarcus Cousins: UPDATE: Cousins (ankle) is listed as probable for Sunday’s game against the Celtics, Sean Cunningham of ABC 10 Sacramento (KXTV) reports.
- Rudy Gay: UPDATE: Gay (ankle) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against Boston, Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee reports.
- Tobias Harris: UPDATE: Harris has been ruled out for Sunday’s tilt with the Hawks, Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS: It appears that a sore left ankle will keep Harris out for Sunday’s matchup. He rolled his ankle in Friday’s loss to the Clippers and missed practice on Saturday. The severity of the injury is still relatively unknown but his next chance to take the court will be on Monday when the Magic take on the Hawks again. Look for Mario Hezonja to see more action on Sunday with Harris on the bench.
- Ben McLemore: UPDATE: McLemore (wrist) is doubtful for Sunday’s game against Boston, Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee reports.
- Austin Rivers: UPDATE: Rivers has been diagnosed with a broken left hand and will likely miss four-to-six weeks, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reports.
Based on this information you have Rondo that will play today and Collison should see more time if Gay and McLemore don’t play. This also means that Belinelli will have a huge roll today for the Kings.