February 6, 2016
Absolute Player Breakdown
The DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:
- $7,000 & Above = MustHave
- $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
- Under $5,200 = Sleeper
Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.
The next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.
Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.
This analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.
In this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.
Big Play Potential
The Big Play Potential utilizes a system of ranking each players potential in terms of achieving a Triple-Double, Double-Double and projected 3’s made. This utilizes a combination of what each player has done for the current season along with what their opponent has done relative to these categories, broken down by position.
The top triple-double rated player for today is Draymond Green. For Double-double we have Andre Drummond as he is averaging that for the season. Last we have projected 3’s and we have Steph Curry in that section.
For the full report to download, click here.
Below is a quick breakdown of players sorted by their last 5 game average. This can be used in order to determine a trend line for what a player is currently doing. This could also be used to indicate the hot hands of the league.
Injuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:
- Jimmy Butler – As he left last night, he was scene walking around but did leave the court in a wheel chair. Expect him to sit today and that means Moore should be a top value play today.
- Pau Gasol – He is expected to sit again today.
- Kevin Love – He left with a thigh injury last night but said that he expects to play today. I personally don’t think so and that would mean more opportunity for Tristan Thompson.
- Ish Smith – He is listed as a GTD as he sprained an ankle last night. If he is a no go then McConnell becomes a top value play at PG today.
- Kentavius Caldwell-Pope – He is out until after the All-Star break and with Stanley Johnson getting the start and his salary so low, he is a must play today.