February 5, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Friday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is Kyle Korver on FanDuel with a positive .17 value (rarely does this occur) and TJ McConnell on DraftKings at -.56. Again something of note here is just the fact that these players don’t have much upside but they will be more than worth their assigned salary compared to their projected output.
- The second overall value play(s) for tonight are TJ McConnell on FanDuel with a value of -.72 and for DraftKings we have Hollis Thompson. McConnell while of value, the PG position on FanDuel is a position of strength where you really need to only be looking at players that will achieve 35+ fantasy points and TJ’s high for the season is 34.8.
- The third overall value play(s) for tonight are Tristan Thompson on FanDuel with a value of -1.28 and Joe Johnson on DraftKings. I personally like Joe Johnson as he will get a ton of scoring opportunities and Brooklyn is projected to score 104 points tonight so he is a solid play. Tristan Thompson on the other hand is heading in the opposite direction as Ty Lou has figured out how to actually utilize Kevin Love in their system and so Love is trending up and Thompson is headed in the other direction, proving that he is not worth anywhere near the 80M contract he signed over the summer.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – Ish Smith with a FanDuel projection of 31.95 and DraftKings projection of 34.01, he is definitely the PG of choice for the 76ers. His value is between -3 and -8 so he is more than worth his price tag especially on FanDuel.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -4.51 and a projection of 31.19 on FanDuel and a value of -6.42 and a projection of 33.78 on DraftKings, solid play here.
- Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as the top projected, value play at SF tonight. He has a value of -5.85 and projection of 33.52 on FanDuel along with a value of -6.83 and projection of 35.77 on DraftKings. He is becoming a star in this league and from a #DFS perspective, he gets 30+ fantasy points on a nightly basis.
- Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads our value play over 30+ projection for tonight. His value on FanDuel is a -4.33 and -7.74 on DraftKings and is the 2nd highest projected PF for tonight.
- Center – Al Horford leads on FanDuel with a projection of 30.41 and a value of -6.34 but for DraftKings we have Brook Lopez with a top projection for the Center position at 40.97 and a value of -5.23. It should be noted that Brook’s brother Robin Lopez is the top value play at Center for tonight with a -2.09 value on FanDuel and -3.95 on DraftKings. He is also coming off a 40+ fantasy performance last night.
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – John Wall who has been playing lights out, he is the top PG for tonight but Ish Smith isn’t far behind.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be one of if not the top PG tonight and he is priced just right to take advantage of his matchup and projected performance.
- Small Forward – LeBron James is our top Chalk play for tonight, he will most likely be widely owned in tournament play but he is more than worth it tonight with the Caves being the 3rd highest projected team score for tonight.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love is another almost 100% certainty to go for between 35 and 45 fantasy points. His salary is on the incline so he is getting close to not being worth it until he is consistently scoring more than 40 fantasy points but for tonight, he is your play at PF with Chris Bosh a close second.
- Center – Robin Lopez is who we would recommend at Center given his cost so you can spend on other positions and get similar output to the high end salary guys. The exception to this would be on FanDuel assuming Cousins plays. Cousins will go for more than 50 and should be a Chalk play if he doesn’t sit out, which he isn’t expected to but is listed on the injury report still.
The stack considerations for tonight are in the Philly vs. Washington (215 total points), Sacramento vs. Brooklyn (213 total points) and Boston vs. Cleveland (210 total points). From a mix and match perspective the top projected teams in order of projected team points scored are Washington (112), Sacramento (109), Cleveland (108), LA Clippers (105) and Brooklyn (104) for tonight.
- Point Guard – CP3 has been lights out and so him or Wall are solid but if you can take both, might be a great idea.
- Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 35 tonight.
- Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo if you are going to roll with CP3 and Wall, otherwise it is LBJ.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love for sure on DraftKings because of his three point ability and double-double potential for tonight.
- Center – Brook Lopez is your guy for tonight or take his brother for value and either way you should have solid production.
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 12% chance, just keep in mind he is playing through turf toe and looked terrible in his last outing.
- The top Double-Double player for tonight can be one of 5 players, with all of them having over a 50% chance and that is Wall, Cousins, Monroe, Gasol (if he plays) and the leader being DeAndre Jordan.
- The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Paul George at 2.73 projected three’s for tonight.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
Some key highlights from this would be that there is not a single player averaging over 50 fantasy points over their last 5 but Wall does lead this list at 49.6 and his opponent Philly, is averaging 70.35 over their last 5 to the PG position, that is top Chalk!
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is John Wall with LeBron James also on this list, take them both tonight in most if not all of your lineups and watch the points pour in.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Ish Smith on FanDuel and Monta Ellis on DraftKings.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez and with his value and ability to get 15+ rebounds and over 10 points, it would be hard not to take him tonight.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
For DraftKings tonight, we are rolling with a John Wall and LBJ combo breaker. Having these two players should get you between 100 and 115 fantasy points tonight. As we look to save at SG tonight, we are going to go with E’twan Moore as we know that Butler is going to play tonight but Moore should still start and with some uncertainty with regard to how much time Butler will actually see combined with playing the Nuggets awful defense, look for Moore to get 22 fantasy points tonight. Next we have our top value play at Center with Robin Lopez and we expect to see 31 fantasy points out of him tonight. Danny Green is going to see extended minutes with Manu Ginobli sidelined for at least 6 weeks so Green could get to 25 fantasy points with high upside if he gets off to a hot start from the 3 pt line. Next we have our Mavs for tonight in Dirk and Zaza, both of which have averaged right around 30 fantasy points per game for the season and both should hit the double-double mark. They do play the Spurs so this will not be a high scoring game but both of these guys should be right around their season average of 60 fantasy points combined. Last we have a sneaky play in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, since coming back from his injury is averaging just over 31 fantasy points per game and this should continue tonight. So considering injuries, this team will come in with a projection of 284 and that should cash in both tournament and 50/50 play tonight.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
For FanDuel tonight, we are also going to roll with many of the similar guys in that we have John Wall and LBJ combo and they should still hit for around 110 fantasy points on FanDuel. Our other PG is going to be Ish Smith who if he continues his production and playing in the highest scoring game, he should get to 36 fantasy points tonight. At SG we are going with our top value and solid play of Monta Ellis along with Moore again here for low salary and value. We expect to achieve 60 fantasy points between these two players tonight. Our other SF besides James is going to Deng. Deng has quietly been posting right around 30 fantasy points per game of late and we expect similar production tonight. At the PF position, we are going back to Aaron Gordon who had an awful performance last time out but that was on a back to back so we will give him the benefit of the doubt and expect him to get 26 fantasy points tonight alongside Aldridge who finally showed up in his last contest, going for over 50 for the first time this season. We would expect 40 fantasy points from him tonight so a total of 66 from our PF’s tonight. Last we are rolling with our value play at Center again in Robin Lopez as we should see 31 fantasy points from him again tonight. That makes this team considering matchup and injuries, projected at 333 fantasy points and that covers our 315 mark so you should be good to go in all formats here.
- Cousins is officially going to play tonight
- Butler has been upgraded to probable and he will play tonight but may be on a minutes restriction.
- Pau Gasol continues to be questionable and so he will be a GTD tonight so be sure to monitor that up to game time. If he doesn’t go look for Gibson to have a solid game.
- Kemba Walker has been upgraded to probable and should play tonight so avoid Lin if you were thinking value there again tonight.
- Crowder is still listed as a GTD so you won’t know until after warmups if he is going to go, probably best to stay away from him tonight.
- Nene Hilario has just been listed as out tonight so look for Dudley to be a huge value play and now considered in all lineups.
- Ginobli is out for about 6 weeks as such Danny Green is going to be a huge value play as well and should see 30+ minutes tonight.
If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.