DiRTy Plays #NBA Friday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 5, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Friday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was an interesting night as Robin Lopez took down the center position as we outlined for you and Anthony Davis proved how valuable he really is in today’s NBA. Lillard ended up being a strong play at PG along with Gerald Henderson proving his #Sleeper status that we identified for you in this post yesterday. Tonight has a full slate so a ton of options for tonight! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is Kyle Korver on FanDuel with a positive .17 value (rarely does this occur) and TJ McConnell on DraftKings at -.56. Again something of note here is just the fact that these players don’t have much upside but they will be more than worth their assigned salary compared to their projected output.
  • The second overall value play(s) for tonight are TJ McConnell on FanDuel with a value of -.72 and for DraftKings we have Hollis Thompson. McConnell while of value, the PG position on FanDuel is a position of strength where you really need to only be looking at players that will achieve 35+ fantasy points and TJ’s high for the season is 34.8.
  • The third overall value play(s) for tonight are Tristan Thompson on FanDuel with a value of -1.28 and Joe Johnson on DraftKings. I personally like Joe Johnson as he will get a ton of scoring opportunities and Brooklyn is projected to score 104 points tonight so he is a solid play. Tristan Thompson on the other hand is heading in the opposite direction as Ty Lou has figured out how to actually utilize Kevin Love in their system and so Love is trending up and Thompson is headed in the other direction, proving that he is not worth anywhere near the 80M contract he signed over the summer.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Ish Smith with a FanDuel projection of 31.95 and DraftKings projection of 34.01, he is definitely the PG of choice for the 76ers. His value is between -3 and -8 so he is more than worth his price tag especially on FanDuel.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis comes in with a value of -4.51 and a projection of 31.19 on FanDuel and a value of -6.42 and a projection of 33.78 on DraftKings, solid play here.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as the top projected, value play at SF tonight. He has a value of -5.85 and projection of 33.52 on FanDuel along with a value of -6.83 and projection of 35.77 on DraftKings. He is becoming a star in this league and from a #DFS perspective, he gets 30+ fantasy points on a nightly basis.
  • Power Forward – Chris Bosh leads our value play over 30+ projection for tonight. His value on FanDuel is a -4.33 and -7.74 on DraftKings and is the 2nd highest projected PF for tonight.
  • Center – Al Horford leads on FanDuel with a projection of 30.41 and a value of -6.34 but for DraftKings we have Brook Lopez with a top projection for the Center position at 40.97 and a value of -5.23. It should be noted that Brook’s brother Robin Lopez is the top value play at Center for tonight with a -2.09 value on FanDuel and -3.95 on DraftKings. He is also coming off a 40+ fantasy performance last night.

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – John Wall who has been playing lights out, he is the top PG for tonight but Ish Smith isn’t far behind.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be one of if not the top PG tonight and he is priced just right to take advantage of his matchup and projected performance.
  • Small Forward – LeBron James is our top Chalk play for tonight, he will most likely be widely owned in tournament play but he is more than worth it tonight with the Caves being the 3rd highest projected team score for tonight.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love is another almost 100% certainty to go for between 35 and 45 fantasy points. His salary is on the incline so he is getting close to not being worth it until he is consistently scoring more than 40 fantasy points but for tonight, he is your play at PF with Chris Bosh a close second.
  • Center – Robin Lopez is who we would recommend at Center given his cost so you can spend on other positions and get similar output to the high end salary guys. The exception to this would be on FanDuel assuming Cousins plays. Cousins will go for more than 50 and should be a Chalk play if he doesn’t sit out, which he isn’t expected to but is listed on the injury report still.

The stack considerations for tonight are in the Philly vs. Washington (215 total points), Sacramento vs. Brooklyn (213 total points) and Boston vs. Cleveland (210 total points). From a mix and match perspective the top projected teams in order of projected team points scored are Washington (112), Sacramento (109), Cleveland (108), LA Clippers (105) and Brooklyn (104) for tonight.

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  • Point Guard – CP3 has been lights out and so him or Wall are solid but if you can take both, might be a great idea.
  • Shooting Guard – Monta Ellis will be a solid 35 tonight.
  • Small Forward – Giannis Antetokounmpo if you are going to roll with CP3 and Wall, otherwise it is LBJ.
  • Power Forward – Kevin Love for sure on DraftKings because of his three point ability and double-double potential for tonight.
  • Center – Brook Lopez is your guy for tonight or take his brother for value and either way you should have solid production.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 12% chance, just keep in mind he is playing through turf toe and looked terrible in his last outing.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight can be one of 5 players, with all of them having over a 50% chance and that is Wall, Cousins, Monroe, Gasol (if he plays) and the leader being DeAndre Jordan.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is Paul George at 2.73 projected three’s for tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

last5

Some key highlights from this would be that there is not a single player averaging over 50 fantasy points over their last 5 but Wall does lead this list at 49.6 and his opponent Philly, is averaging 70.35 over their last 5 to the PG position, that is top Chalk!

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is John Wall with LeBron James also on this list, take them both tonight in most if not all of your lineups and watch the points pour in.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Ish Smith on FanDuel and Monta Ellis on DraftKings.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Robin Lopez and with his value and ability to get 15+ rebounds and over 10 points, it would be hard not to take him tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we are rolling with a John Wall and LBJ combo breaker. Having these two players should get you between 100 and 115 fantasy points tonight. As we look to save at SG tonight, we are going to go with E’twan Moore as we know that Butler is going to play tonight but Moore should still start and with some uncertainty with regard to how much time Butler will actually see combined with playing the Nuggets awful defense, look for Moore to get 22 fantasy points tonight. Next we have our top value play at Center with Robin Lopez and we expect to see 31 fantasy points out of him tonight. Danny Green is going to see extended minutes with Manu Ginobli sidelined for at least 6 weeks so Green could get to 25 fantasy points with high upside if he gets off to a hot start from the 3 pt line. Next we have our Mavs for tonight in Dirk and Zaza, both of which have averaged right around 30 fantasy points per game for the season and both should hit the double-double mark. They do play the Spurs so this will not be a high scoring game but both of these guys should be right around their season average of 60 fantasy points combined. Last we have a sneaky play in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, since coming back from his injury is averaging just over 31 fantasy points per game and this should continue tonight. So considering injuries, this team will come in with a projection of 284 and that should cash in both tournament and 50/50 play tonight.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel tonight, we are also going to roll with many of the similar guys in that we have John Wall and LBJ combo and they should still hit for around 110 fantasy points on FanDuel. Our other PG is going to be Ish Smith who if he continues his production and playing in the highest scoring game, he should get to 36 fantasy points tonight. At SG we are going with our top value and solid play of Monta Ellis along with Moore again here for low salary and value. We expect to achieve 60 fantasy points between these two players tonight. Our other SF besides James is going to Deng. Deng has quietly been posting right around 30 fantasy points per game of late and we expect similar production tonight. At the PF position, we are going back to Aaron Gordon who had an awful performance last time out but that was on a back to back so we will give him the benefit of the doubt and expect him to get 26 fantasy points tonight alongside Aldridge who finally showed up in his last contest, going for over 50 for the first time this season. We would expect 40 fantasy points from him tonight so a total of 66 from our PF’s tonight. Last we are rolling with our value play at Center again in Robin Lopez as we should see 31 fantasy points from him again tonight. That makes this team considering matchup and injuries, projected at 333 fantasy points and that covers our 315 mark so you should be good to go in all formats here.


injuryKey Injuries:

  • Cousins is officially going to play tonight
  • Butler has been upgraded to probable and he will play tonight but may be on a minutes restriction.
  • Pau Gasol continues to be questionable and so he will be a GTD tonight so be sure to monitor that up to game time. If he doesn’t go look for Gibson to have a solid game.
  • Kemba Walker has been upgraded to probable and should play tonight so avoid Lin if you were thinking value there again tonight.
  • Crowder is still listed as a GTD so you won’t know until after warmups if he is going to go, probably best to stay away from him tonight.
  • Nene Hilario has just been listed as out tonight so look for Dudley to be a huge value play and now considered in all lineups.
  • Ginobli is out for about 6 weeks as such Danny Green is going to be a huge value play as well and should see 30+ minutes tonight.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

What No-One Tells You About #SuperBowl50 Drinking Games

name of site - hunter thompson style

Mardi Gras is this Tuesday, February 9th, 2016

1.

Johnny Be Gone…

In the latest development in the Johnny Manziel saga, his agent released a statement Friday saying he is cutting ties with the Cleveland Browns quarterback.

“It is with deep regret that, after several emotional and very personal discussions with his family, his doctors and my client himself, I have made the decision to terminate my professional relationship with Johnny Manziel,” agent Erik Burkhardt said in a statement.

Clearly there’s smoke, but at the very least there is a pattern, and it shows that the rehab-parade was just wishful thinking – a PR stunt.  These allegations could keep him out of the NFL for good and makes Johnny more OJ than Reggie in troubled Heisman winners.  When does the Heisman House make Johnny give back his cement statue, after-all precedent has been set with past discretions.

At least for Manziel he’ll be out of football before the evil monster, CTE, get him – so there’s that.

Read: Agent cuts ties with Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel

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2.

Golden Boy:

This almost isn’t fair. Nobody deserves an eternal life of greatness regarding all things he touches in sports, but here is John Elway, so charmed that his Denver Broncos are practicing for Super Bowl 50 up the road at Stanford University in Palo Alto.

Guess where Elway starred in college? Uh huh.

“I’ll tell you what — the throwback was that I actually had my first wedding anniversary reception where we’re staying this time, too, over there at the Santa Clara Marriott,” Elway said. “And actually, we had a draft party over there [when the Broncos made the legendary Stanford quarterback the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick in 1983], too. We rented a suite over there and watched the draft with a bunch of Stanford guys.”

This is the same Elway who played his first football game ever in the sixth grade, and he scored six touchdowns … by halftime….

Read: John Elway is the Broncos’ grand pooh-bah.

Here’s Extra Mustard’s super special drinking game for Super Bowl 50

3.

#SuperBowl50 Drinking Game:

Responsibly sip your drink when…

  • The cameras flash at kickoff.
  • Peyton Manning throws a wobbly pass.
  • CBS shows an actual fan in the crowd.
  • Phil Simms says the word “elite.”
  • Cam Newton runs for a touchdown.
  • CBS uses the Pylon Cam.
  • CBS shows B-roll of the Golden Gate bridge.
  • Mike Carey is wrong during a replay review.
  • Jim Nantz clearly uses a phrase he wrote two weeks ago at the end of the game.
  • Roger Goodell is booed during the trophy presentation.

Sip your drink twice if…

  • Ted Ginn drops a pass.
  • The cameras cut to Steph Curry watching from the stands.
  • Phil Simms says “talking about.”
  • CBS shows B-roll of Lombard Street.
  • Someone at your Super Bowl party double dips.
  • You think about how much cooler Beyoncé is than Bruno Mars.

Buy a pair of Google Glass if…

  • Peyton Manning dabs.
  • The cameras cut to a fan in the stands wearing Google Glass.

Finish your drink if…

  • Phil Simms or Jim Nantz say “HGH.”
  • Lady Gaga forgets a word during the national anthem.
  • You get bingo on our commercial bingo card.
  • Jay-Z makes a surprise appearance.
  • Someone at your Super Bowl party dabs.

Run a naked lap if…

  • Coldplay has a wardrobe malfunction.

Source: Here’s Extra Mustard’s super special drinking game for Super Bowl 50

Which NFL Team Has The Worst Alumni?

4.

The Worst NFL Alumni:

It’s Super Bowl week, which means that both ESPN and your local sports talk blowfest will be flooded with even more useless former NFL players than usual. One of the perks of being a Super Bowl champion is that, until the day you die, you get to spend one week a year gallivanting around Radio Row and tricking yourself into believing the world still gives a hoo-haw about you.

This is why Mark Schlereth is way too comfortable talking publicly about the origins of the solar system. No one should listen to Mark Schlereth talk about anything, but winning a Super Bowl often confers a sense of validation upon these men. All that adoration and love you get in the wake of winning a title hardens into a permanent delusion of your own importance. You are now a LIVING LEGEND, and that’s how you end up with half these guys thinking they’re heads of state.

Read: Which NFL Team Has The Worst Alumni?

5.

My Favorite Trends/Props:

SUPER BOWL AGAINST-THE-SPREAD TRENDS

Carolina -5.5 Denver

— The last time a Super Bowl favorite of at least three points both won and covered was Super Bowl XLI in 2007, when the Colts beat the Bears, 29-17, as seven-point favorites.

— The last 10 teams to score 40 or more points in a playoff game — as the Panthers did against the Cardinals in the NFC championship game — went 1-8-1 ATS in their next game.

— Take that back to 1996, and teams that scored 40-plus points in a playoff game are 4-22 ATS in their next game.

Fun Props to run at your party:

Who will have more?

Stephen Curry three-point field goals made: pick ’em +110

Greg Olsen receptions: pick ’em -130

Who will have more?

Rory McIlroy fourth-round score: +0.5 -110

Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards: -0.5 -110

Will there be a successful two-point conversion?

Yes +330

No -400

Will there be a missed extra point?

Yes +300

No -360

Coin Toss

Heads -102

Tails -102

Will there be a safety?

Yes +550

No -800


 

6.

…and Finally…

If continuity is king in the NFL, then Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has reached the league’s title game a much different way.

Super Bowl 50 will be the fourth time Manning has been behind center in the NFL’s championship game, and Gary Kubiak is the fourth different coach Manning has played for that advanced to the Super Bowl.

“I’ve enjoyed learning from coach Kubiak this year,” Manning said. “Continuity is always a great thing, but when you have a chance to play with some different coaches, you want to take advantage and learn from them. … I’ve learned something from all of them.”

Read: Peyton Manning: Four Super Bowls, four head coaches

DiRTy Plays Friday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 5, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 22.23% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.47 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 21.54% of your projected team total with an average of 2.12 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 20.44% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.97 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 18.66% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.39  PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 17.13% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.22 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

Order for tonight, based on percentage of projected points would be PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C

 

  • PG – Represents 21.77% of your projected team total with an average of 67.26 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 21.37% of your projected team total with an average of 66.0 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 19.57% of your projected team total with an average of 60.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 21.15% of your projected team total with an average of 65.4 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.14% of your projected team total with an average of 49.8 points for this position for winning lineups.

Order for tonight, based on projected points per position would be PG, SG, PF, C, SF


injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • DeMarcus Cousins – Listed as probable for tonight and based on the fact that he played in the last game, he should play again tonight.
  • Jimmy Butler – He was a late scratch the other night which affected over 35% of lineups in the main contest, look for Etwan Moore to start if he sits and Moore might start anyway with Mirotic out and he is a strong consideration for a sleeper again tonight.
  • Pau Gasol – Listed as questionable due to a hand sprain that occurred in their last game as he went up for a dunk in the 4th quarter. If he sits, look for Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis to see extensive minutes.
  • Kemba Walker – Listed as questionable but did practice yesterday and said that he expects to play so watch this one closely as Lin is the main beneficiary if he sits again.
  • Jae Crowder – He is listed as a game-time decision with an ankle/shin issue. If he sits, Turner would be your guy.
  • Matthew Delledova – He is out for tonight as such Mo Williams will have the backup spot locked down and he could see over 24 minutes tonight. That also means that Kyrie should be a strong consideration.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.