February 4, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, there were some huge performances. Did you know that we had 7 players go for over 50 fantasy points last night? The problem was that most of those players were the high salaried players so it didn’t make for record fantasy scoring overall. Westrbrook through down a monster triple-double with another one added by Draymond Green (both of which were on our Big Play Potential)! Then you had Durant, Curry, Wall and Oladipo pouring in points in the early to mid games! Fun night for the NBA for sure! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is DeAngelo Russell on DraftKings and PJ Tucker on FanDuel. Both players have been playing well of late and will get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points on a regular basis but not much upside there.
- The second overall value play(s) for tonight is Bismack Biyombo on DraftKings and for FanDuel we have Jordan Clarkson. While Biyombo hits this list, he hasn’t seen as much playing time over his last 10 games so the reason he hits this list is simply because of his salary being so low. Clarkson on the other hand has been consistently hitting that 25 point mark and with Kobe uncertain for tonight, this is a solid play.
- The third overall value play for tonight is Gerald Henderson for DraftKings and Julius Randle for FanDuel. I like both of these plays tonight with Henderson coming off a 25+ fantasy point performance and playing around 23 minutes over his last 3 games, he should get a solid 20 fantasy points tonight. Randle is looking more like a consistent 30+ fantasy point performer for as long as Nance is out, which is scheduled to be at least through the All-Star break.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – Damian Lillard with a projection of 37 fantasy points and a -8.67 on our value scale.
- Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan with a projection of 39.14 on DraftKings and 37.08 on FanDuel with only a -5.45 value for tonight, solid play!
- Small Forward – Marcus Morris has a 24.11 projection on FanDuel and 25.83 on DraftKings, he might see more action of Pope does sit out tonight and he has the three ball in his favor on DraftKings, value is only -2.66 so with limited options for this position tonight, he should be considered.
- Power Forward – Ryan Anderson on DraftKings is a solid projection of 32.68 and a -5.72 value, if you aren’t going Anthony Davis here, he should be considered.
- Center – Andre Drummond should be no surprise here with the lack of Centers playing tonight so he comes in with a 35+ point projection and an almost automatic double-double
Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:
Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:
- Point Guard – Patrick Beverly with a low salary and having produced in the upper 20’s in each of his last 3 while playing against the Suns, solid play
- Shooting Guard – James Harden Chalk play, enough said
- Small Forward – Trevor Ariza has a solid matchup against the Suns and while Howard is expected back, he is one of the best options aside from Carmelo tonight at this position.
- Power Forward – Julius Randle should be considered across the board for your lineups given his overall value and really only Anthony Davis as a potential chalk play here.
- Center – Andre Drummond is the only option outside of Robin Lopez here so you either decide to spend on this position or you don’t and those are your options!
The stack considerations for tonight are in the Houston vs. Phoenix game with a projected total score of 214 and if you are looking to stack based on the two teams that are projected to score the most that would be the Pelicans and Rockets!
- Point Guard – Damian Lillard is your Chalk play here as he will hit a ton of threes tonight
- Shooting Guard – James Harden is a must play
- Small Forward – PJ Tucker with the Rockets in town look for high scoring and Tucker should add some value for hitting some threes
- Power Forward – Anthony Davis should be considered in all formats and if not him then go Ryan Anderson
- Center – Andre Drummond and this is no different than FanDuel, you either play him or you roll with Robin Lopez
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is James Harden at 4% chance.
- The top Double-Double player for tonight is Andre Drummond. He comes in at 82% chance again tonight.
- The top 3 point shooter for tonight is James Harden and Kyle Lowry as both are right at 2.75 and 2.74 respectively.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
- James Harden – 56.9
- Andre Drummond – 42.25
- Damian Lillard – 41.5
- Kyle Lowry – 39.15
- Jrue Holiday – 37.5
Some key highlights from this would be that only Harden tops the 50 point average for players in tonight’s field. Only Drummond and Lillard are over the 40 point marker so this means not a ton of high end scoring tonight.
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden and that should come as no surprise given the fact that he is 10 points better than any other player playing tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Jrue Holiday on FanDuel and for DraftKings we have Caldwell-Pope if he plays. If he doesn’t then our second player is Markief Morris.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Norris Cole on FanDuel and Aminu on DraftKings as both players should be very solid in that 25 – 35 fantasy point range with more upside with Cole.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
As our Lineup Analyzer is under going some key enhancements and updates, I am just going to provide you with the lineups to consider for tonight without the graphic representation:
- PG – Pat Beverly
- SG – James Harden
- SF – Trevor Ariza
- PF – Anthony Davis
- C – Robin Lopez
- G – Gerald Henderson
- F – Josh Smith
- Util – DeAngelo Russell
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
- PG – Pat Beverly
- PG – Damian Lillard
- SG – James Harden
- SG – Devin Booker
- SF – Al-Faruq Aminu
- SF – PJ Tucker
- PF – Julius Randle
- PF – Markief Morris
- C – Andre Drummond
Nothing more to add as all of the key players we identified earlier today still have the same status so be sure to check them out as you build your lineups tonight. Here is the link to the post with that information from earlier today, just click here.
If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.