DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 4, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, there were some huge performances. Did you know that we had 7 players go for over 50 fantasy points last night? The problem was that most of those players were the high salaried players so it didn’t make for record fantasy scoring overall. Westrbrook through down a monster triple-double with another one added by Draymond Green (both of which were on our Big Play Potential)! Then you had Durant, Curry, Wall and Oladipo pouring in points in the early to mid games! Fun night for the NBA for sure! Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play(s) for tonight, according to the numbers is DeAngelo Russell on DraftKings and PJ Tucker on FanDuel. Both players have been playing well of late and will get you between 20 and 30 fantasy points on a regular basis but not much upside there.
  • The second overall value play(s) for tonight is Bismack Biyombo on DraftKings and for FanDuel we have Jordan Clarkson. While Biyombo hits this list, he hasn’t seen as much playing time over his last 10 games so the reason he hits this list is simply because of his salary being so low. Clarkson on the other hand has been consistently hitting that 25 point mark and with Kobe uncertain for tonight, this is a solid play.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Gerald Henderson for DraftKings and Julius Randle for FanDuel. I like both of these plays tonight with Henderson coming off a 25+ fantasy point performance and playing around 23 minutes over his last 3 games, he should get a solid 20 fantasy points tonight. Randle is looking more like a consistent 30+ fantasy point performer for as long as Nance is out, which is scheduled to be at least through the All-Star break.

I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:

  • Point Guard – Damian Lillard with a projection of 37 fantasy points and a -8.67 on our value scale.
  • Shooting Guard – DeMar DeRozan with a projection of 39.14 on DraftKings and 37.08 on FanDuel with only a -5.45 value for tonight, solid play!
  • Small Forward – Marcus Morris has a 24.11 projection on FanDuel and 25.83 on DraftKings, he might see more action of Pope does sit out tonight and he has the three ball in his favor on DraftKings, value is only -2.66 so with limited options for this position tonight, he should be considered.
  • Power Forward – Ryan Anderson on DraftKings is a solid projection of 32.68 and a -5.72 value, if you aren’t going Anthony Davis here, he should be considered.
  • Center – Andre Drummond should be no surprise here with the lack of Centers playing tonight so he comes in with a 35+ point projection and an almost automatic double-double

Point 2 – Top 5 Players to Consider:

Below are our top 5 players when considering all of our custom metrics such as big play potential, projection to spend ratio, overall projection and opponent rank:

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  • Point Guard – Patrick Beverly with a low salary and having produced in the upper 20’s in each of his last 3 while playing against the Suns, solid play
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden Chalk play, enough said
  • Small Forward – Trevor Ariza has a solid matchup against the Suns and while Howard is expected back, he is one of the best options aside from Carmelo tonight at this position.
  • Power Forward – Julius Randle should be considered across the board for your lineups given his overall value and really only Anthony Davis as a potential chalk play here.
  • Center – Andre Drummond is the only option outside of Robin Lopez here so you either decide to spend on this position or you don’t and those are your options!

The stack considerations for tonight are in the Houston vs. Phoenix game with a projected total score of 214 and if you are looking to stack based on the two teams that are projected to score the most that would be the Pelicans and Rockets!

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  • Point Guard – Damian Lillard is your Chalk play here as he will hit a ton of threes tonight
  • Shooting Guard – James Harden is a must play
  • Small Forward – PJ Tucker with the Rockets in town look for high scoring and Tucker should add some value for hitting some threes
  • Power Forward – Anthony Davis should be considered in all formats and if not him then go Ryan Anderson
  • Center – Andre Drummond and this is no different than FanDuel, you either play him or you roll with Robin Lopez

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is James Harden at 4% chance.
  • The top Double-Double player for tonight is Andre Drummond. He comes in at 82% chance again tonight.
  • The top 3 point shooter for tonight is James Harden and Kyle Lowry as both are right at 2.75 and 2.74 respectively.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

  • James Harden – 56.9
  • Andre Drummond – 42.25
  • Damian Lillard – 41.5
  • Kyle Lowry – 39.15
  • Jrue Holiday – 37.5

Some key highlights from this would be that only Harden tops the 50 point average for players in tonight’s field. Only Drummond and Lillard are over the 40 point marker so this means not a ton of high end scoring tonight.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden and that should come as no surprise given the fact that he is 10 points better than any other player playing tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Jrue Holiday on FanDuel and for DraftKings we have Caldwell-Pope if he plays. If he doesn’t then our second player is Markief Morris.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Norris Cole on FanDuel and Aminu on DraftKings as both players should be very solid in that 25 – 35 fantasy point range with more upside with Cole.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

As our Lineup Analyzer is under going some key enhancements and updates, I am just going to provide you with the lineups to consider for tonight without the graphic representation:

  • PG – Pat Beverly
  • SG – James Harden
  • SF – Trevor Ariza
  • PF – Anthony Davis
  • C – Robin Lopez
  • G – Gerald Henderson
  • F – Josh Smith
  • Util – DeAngelo Russell

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

  • PG – Pat Beverly
  • PG – Damian Lillard
  • SG – James Harden
  • SG – Devin Booker
  • SF – Al-Faruq Aminu
  • SF – PJ Tucker
  • PF – Julius Randle
  • PF – Markief Morris
  • C – Andre Drummond

injuryKey Injuries:

Nothing more to add as all of the key players we identified earlier today still have the same status so be sure to check them out as you build your lineups tonight. Here is the link to the post with that information from earlier today, just click here.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

What 6 Things You Need to Know Thursday – #NFL #MLB

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1.

Who’s The Best in Fantasy?

There is little debate over who should win the NFL MVP award, with Panthers quarterback Cam Newton likely to snag that honor. So instead, we decided to examine a more uncertain question — who is the best fictional pro football player of all time?

Read: Which fictional professional football player is the best?

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2.

Re-Watchability…

The endless two-week build up before the Super Bowl can get tedious, but tripping down memory lane helps the time move faster. From the recent instant classics to the one-sided routs from the 1970s and ’80s, and even the sepia-toned matchups that spurred the AFL-NFL merger, every big game had its own unique quality.

As some have done already, we wanted to take a look at every Super Bowl in terms of the excitement factor, but with an emphasis on how well the game has aged, and how eager we would be to rewatch each one.

Read: Which has been the most exciting Super Bowl to date?

3.

2 Sports:

It’s a football kind of week, even in the world of baseball.

Before we get to Spring Training (less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers!) and before we even get to Sunday’s Super Bowl 50, there is today’s college football National Signing Day.

Naturally, all this palaver about pigskin has us thinking about the glorious occasional conversion between the stars of these two very American athletic undertakings.

Read: 13 football players who became Major Leaguers | MLB.com

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4.

Politico…

The presidential race and the baseball season share a certain symmetry of scheduling.

February is not only the time the presidential candidates spend a disproportionate amount of time campaigning in faraway locales in Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s also the month clubs begin spending an inordinate amount of time training in faraway locales in Florida and Arizona. And the goal of each campaign, of course, is to accumulate small victories early, surge in the summer and then obtain the ultimate prize in the fall.

With that in mind, let’s reimagine each team’s 2016 declaration of intent in the form of a political slogan.

Read: What if baseball teams had political slogans?

Yu Darvish's slider is in a league of its own. (via Matthew Straubmuller)

5.

Slider In…

Let’s take a visual stroll across Statistical Boulevard and meander past Analytics Way as we dissect the slider (as classified by PITCHf/x) in various ways. The intent of this article is to show some interesting visuals on the aforementioned slider and perhaps bring to the surface an interesting tidbit or two.

We begin with a brisk walk on Top Season Street and take a peek at the top slider-throwing seasons since 2009. I’ve excluded 2008 since it was the first season to have PITCHf/x data, and it showed some weird inconsistencies with the rest of the data set. 2008 will be excluded from all data in this article. The graph below is courtesy of FanGraphs’ leaderboards feature.

Read: The Slider: A Visual Analysis – The Hardball Times

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6.

Turnaround…

It’s nearing the time of year when experts and prognosticators release their predictions for the 2016 Major League Baseball season, but only one thing is certain — nobody ever fully knows what to expect.

Look no further than just last season, when the Astros, Cubs and Mets all blazed a path to the postseason, despite most believing each club was still a year or two away from contention. Though it was a bit more prevalent last year, it turns out almost every season during the Wild Card era has featured at least one team making an unexpected postseason run.

Since the introduction of the Wild Card in 1995, only the 2005 campaign did not include at least one team that qualified for the postseason after finishing the previous year with a losing record. This was true for four of last year’s 10 qualifiers, with the Rangers joining the aforementioned trio with a drastic turnaround of their own. It’s also worth noting that there have been at least two such postseason qualifiers in each of the four seasons since a second Wild Card berth was added to each league in 2012.

Overall, about one in four postseason teams since 1995 were coming off of a losing season. While these improvements were more expected in some cases than others, there has been a fair share of surprising postseason runs a la last season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at which team(s) is most likely to continue this trend in 2016. The following is a look at each of the 14 teams that finished with a losing record last season, as well as their prospects for reaching the postseason in ’16. The teams were broken down into three categories — “Work in progress,” “Borderline contenders” and “Eye on the prize” — based on the likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs next season.

Read: Which sub-.500 teams can make a run in 2016?

DiRTy Plays Thursday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 4, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.


 

Positional Breakdown

In this section we will provide you with the FanDuel and DraftKings positional analysis based on players that are available for today in order to better assist you with the order in which you should be selecting player as you create your winning lineup(s).

  • draftkingsPG – Represents 20.6% of your projected team point total with an average of 2.16 PG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • SG – Represents 24.89% of your projected team total with an average of 2.89 SG’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days
  • SF – Represents 17.67% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.42 SF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • PF – Represents 20.96% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.89  PF’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.
  • C – Represents 15.87% of your projected team point total with an average of 1.01 C’s per winning lineup over the past 7 days.

 

  • PG – Represents 21.6% of your projected team total with an average of 64.8 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • FanDuel_SG – Represents 23.93% of your projected team total with an average of 71.79 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • SF – Represents 14.74% of your projected team total with an average of 44.22 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • PF – Represents 23.17% of your projected team total with an average of 69.5 points for this position for winning lineups.
  • C – Represents 16.56% of your projected team total with an average of 42.7 points for this position for winning lineups.

injuryInjuries as of 11:30 a.m. EST are as follows:

  • Tyreke Evans – Missed action on Wednesday and is uncertain for tonight
  • Brandon Knight – Listed as a GTD and could return tonight, this means stay away from Goodwin.
  • Kobe Bryant – Listed as a GTD, with his output on Tuesday, don’t be surprised if he sits tonight and that means Lou Williams.
  • Kentavius Caldwell-Pope – Sat out last night unexpectedly and his status is uncertain for tonight.
  • Clint Capela – Listed as a GTD, most likely will not play but Dwight is going to return tonight so not much expected production here anyway.
  • Jose Calderon – Listed as a GTD, if he plays that means Galloway’s production will go down so keep an eye out on this one.
  • TJ Warren – Out for the rest of the season and this means that suddenly Markief Morris should be considered for all of your lineups.
  • Larry Nance Jr. – Officially out until after the All-Star break and that means that Julius Randle is going to see the lion’s share at PF and he should be considered for all lineups.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.