February 3, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, what a throw back night for Kobe Bryant! It was an awesome display last night as the Lakers took on the T-Wolves and it was a great game. Wiggins and Kobe were going back and forth down the stretch of the 4th quarter and it brought me back to when Kobe was in his prime and man can he make shots! Now it is only from time to time but when he gets it going, he is still one of the most unstoppable, offensive players in the league, great players certainly will always have greatness in them. Some other key notables last night were Stoudemire putting up over 24 points as we accurately predicted and CJ McCollum for the Blazers put on a show. As we noted Archie Goodwin was a strong performer yesterday. Some key notables were that while Ariza didn’t put up the numbers we thought he was still solid, our top Chalk play of James Harden was the top fantasy scorer last night and one of our #Sleepers, Aminu had a very nice performance. Tonight we have a ton of action so let’s get to it. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play for tonight, according to the numbers is Tristan Thompson, coming in with a positive value at 1.28 points. As you should recall our value system is NOT the standard, divide our projection into the assigned salary but rather, we look at the minimum score needed to cash and then look at the projection variance against the assigned salary divided into the needed score to win. This means that anyone that has a positive value on our system are must plays for tonight as that is a pretty rare occurrence and in fact our threshold goes to -9.
- The 2nd overall value play for tonight is Zach Lavine. He has been playing pretty hot and if you took him last night, he didn’t do much until the 4th quarter but when it was all said and done he crossed the 22 fantasy point threshold once again and his salary is still pretty low considering. It should be noted that he too has a positive value on our system for tonight.
- The 3rd Overall value play for tonight is Gorgui Dieng. With Garnett sidelined and Payne seemingly unable to get on the court for the Timberwolves, Dieng has been a solid performer of late, going over 25 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 contests.
I wanted to add some additional value player to our list today as these players are within our variance threshold but also have a projection of at least 30 fantasy points for tonight. This should help you with your player selection for tonight as these are guys with great matchups and should have solid performances relative to their assigned salary. Those players are as follows:
- Point Guard – Reggie Jackson (DK Projection 36.33, FD Projection 34.02) value is between -2.73 and -4.47.
- Shooting Guard – Andrew Wiggins (DK Projection 33.08, FD Projection 31.4) value is -1.68 on FanDuel and -4.72 on DraftKings.
- Small Forward – Danilo Gallinari on Draftkings with a projection of 31.81 and a value of -8.99. For FanDuel we have Gordon Hayward with a projection of 32.92 and value is at -10.65. This means that Hayward would need to score 43.57 points to be worth his salary, this is a feasible number for him considering he has averaged just under 40 fantasy points over his last 5 games.
- Power Forward – Kevin Love (DK Projection 40.07, FD Projection 36.78) value is -3.65 on FanDuel and -5.53 on DraftKings.
- Center – Brook Lopez (DK Projection 41.99, FD Projection 39.8) value is -6.93 on FanDuel and -3.01 on DraftKings.
Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:
- Point Guard – 36.1/player (72.3 total points)
- Shooting Guard – 32.2/player (64.4 total points)
- Small Forward – 28.9/player (57.8 total points)
- Power Forward – 32.6/player (65.2 total points)
- Center – 43.8/player (43.8 total points)
The stack considerations for tonight are Golden State against the Wizards & Orlando vs. Oklahoma City. The crazy thing here is that Vegas has the Warriors and Wiz projected over/under at 225 points, this is 13 points more than the next highest in OKC/ORL at 212. That is one of the highest over/unders I have seen in quite some time so take a stack of those players and see what happens.
- Point Guard – 35.4/player (2.64 PG’s per winning lineup)
- Shooting Guard – 29.4/player (2.18 SG’s per winning lineup)
- Small Forward – 27.2/player (1.82 SF’s per winning lineup)
- Power Forward – 27.2/player (1.96 PF’s per winning lineup)
- Center – 26.2/player (1.09 C’s per winning lineup)
With the slate of games we have tonight, selecting the right positions to take value versus chalk is going to be very important. Chalk plays for tonight are Curry & Durant. It should be of note that Klay Thompson has scored 30 “Real” points in 3 consecutive games while Curry hasn’t been scoring as much of late. From a position perspective, you should take 4 guards tonight and stick to one center.
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Draymond Green. He comes off a triple-double in his last performance with a rating of 19% chance of hitting that mark again tonight.
- The top Double-Double player for tonight is Andre Drummond. In fact his rating of 82% is almost 30% points higher than the next player, he is an automatic double-double. His problem is salary to performance, he tends to be over priced for a position that you can typically get similar production but much better value.
- The top 3 point shooter for tonight should come as no surprise is Steph Curry with 4.6 projected 3’s made tonight. Klay Thompson is right behind him and both should have at least three, three pointers tonight.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
Some key highlights from this would be that only Westbrook and Durant are averaging over 50 fantasy points over their last 5 games. We have a ton of guys in that 40 points or more area with that total being 15 players! Some key notables there would be Dwayne Wade and Brook Lopez as they don’t have extremely high salaries so you should be able to take them with a Chalk play or two. Some other notables in that 35 – 40 point range are Jokic & Dieng both in this range with a DK salary of $5,700 tonight (huge upside).
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Russell Westbrook on DraftKings and Andre Drummond FanDuel. Personally, I like Westbrook much more than Drummond, not that Drummond won’t put up points, Westbrook will be worth more and has the potential for filling all of the stat sheet much more.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Monta Ellis on DraftKings and Jrue Holiday on FanDuel. Both of these guys have been hot, what is crazy is the fact that Holiday is still coming off the bench. Assuming that continues, look for Holiday to continue his output because he is playing against second tier players for large portions of the game but if he moves into the starting role, shy away.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Evan Turner on DraftKings and Aaron Gordon on FanDuel. Gordon since being inserted into the starting lineup is a 30 fantasy point machine and tonight should be no different against the Thunder. Evan Turner has been playing well but his upside is limited because he just doesn’t score a ton and isn’t a top end rebounder so you are looking for steals and assists which he is not very consistent with in his current role, coming off the bench.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
For DraftKings tonight, we have some key value plays in JJ Barea and Zach Lavine as Lavine presents us with a positive needed points to projection value for tonight and with Deron Williams out for tonight Barea is going to be highly owned but should also be highly productive. Next we have Andrew Wiggins, which last night he put on a show alongside Kobe Bryant and tonight he gets the Clippers so he will be familiar with the court on this back to back session. At forward we have Aaron Gordon and Kevin Love as both of these guys have been on fire of late with Love also being a high value guy based on the expected production for tonight. Brook Lopez is our top center for tonight (assuming that Cousins is not going to play). Next we have Thad Young and Reggie Jackson finishing off this lineup with both having solid matchups and expected 35+ fantasy points tonight.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
For FanDuel, we have several similar players as we have outlined in our top DraftKings lineup. The main guys to take advantage of tonight are going to be JJ Barea, Jeremy Lin and then taking chalk plays like Russell Westbrook and Jimmy Butler. This lineup is one of the highest lineups in terms of trending in the right direction with over 300 points averaged over their last 5 games. Look for this lineup to hit for over 320 fantasy points tonight.
- DeMarcus Cousins is listed as Questionable and given that he missed his last game combined with the fact that the Kings typically keep his status internally until the last minute, we suggest staying away from him tonight, even if he plays, that is a lot of risk for an ankle injury.
- Rajon Rondo is also listed as Questionable and this would mean that Collison would get the start as the injury is turf toe. If that is the case, Rondo will not play as he won’t be able to plant on his foot and if he does go, he won’t be able to accomplish the same quickness that he is accustomed to so stay away there but Collison is a nice play if Rondo doesn’t play as he has averaged over 30 fantasy points when playing in the starting lineup.
- Kemba Walker is out for tonight and Jeremy Lin is expected to see extended minutes in his absence.
- Whiteside is listed as Questionable and given that he didn’t play last night, expect him to miss again, making Stoudemire a strong play again tonight.
- Tyreke Evans is listed as doubtful with a knee injury and that usually means he won’t suit up for tonight. Holiday is the beneficiary as well as Norris Cole from his absence.
- Tim Duncan is Out again tonight. While he hasn’t been playing West has seen a slight up tic in his minutes but production wise, he hasn’t done much with that additional time. No real fantasy value here.
- Deron Williams is Questionable and that usually means he will sit. That also means that Barea is a strong consideration at PG tonight as he scores in bunches when getting the extra time on the floor.
- Jameer Nelson is expected to miss another game and that means Mudiay is likely to get 30+ minutes and that has meant at least 25 fantasy points for him this season.
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