February 2, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, if you had Jokic and Teague on the same lineup, you probably did just fine. It was nice to see that the Vegas, high projected contest was able to achieve that feat for the first time in just over 8 days but that was largely due to the fact that the contest went into OT. So if you had those two players and played an Ind/Cle stack you probably scored very high last night. Kyle Lowry on the other hand was a complete bust. The Nuggets just shut them down so the thing to note there is if the Nuggets play a top 5 team in the NBA at home, book it, the Nuggets will win that game. They can’t beat anyone else but for some reason (coaching) they are able to compete with the best teams and lose focus for the other 65 – 70 games of the season. If you are a Nuggets fan, this cannot be more frustrating but from a fantasy perspective, it is something noteworthy for you to consider in the future. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play for tonight, according to the numbers is Roy Hibbert. This is largely due to the fact that he has such a low salary, so he doesn’t have to score much to be worth his value. My personal top is Trevor Ariza and the reason is simple….if no D.Howard, then Ariza scores at least 30 fantasy points. Howard is suspended for tonight so take Ariza.
- The second overall value play for tonight is Ed Davis. He isn’t a player that is going to go off for you but he will consistently get between 20 and 25 fantasy points. The Blazers take on the Bucs, who have given up the most fantasy points to the PF position so far this year, look for a solid number from Davis.
- The third overall value play for tonight is Avery Bradley. With Crowder being a GTD tonight, this means more touches for Bradley who has already been scoring a ton of late. Look for him to get a few extra touches on offense tonight and lock down for a 35+ fantasy point performance tonight.
Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:
Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.
- Point Guard – 38.2/player (76.4 total points)
- Shooting Guard – 36.2/player (72.4 total points)
- Small Forward – 29.3/player (58.6 total points)
- Power Forward – 36.9/player (73.8 total points)
- Center – 46.2/player (46.2 total points)
The stack considerations for tonight are Boston vs. New York being the top projected Over/Under at 208.5 with both Min vs. Hou and Mil vs. Por both hovering at the 205 marker. That said, with only 5 matchups, it might be worth it to just go ahead and stack each contest in the smaller entry contest and see what happens.
- Point Guard – 48.6/player (2.9 PG’s per winning lineup)
- Shooting Guard – 34.8/player (2.01 SG’s per winning lineup)
- Small Forward – 26.4/player (1.4 SF’s per winning lineup)
- Power Forward – 44.4/player (1.01 PF’s per winning lineup)
- Center – 33.8/player (1.31 C’s per winning lineup)
The order for player selection for tonight you should be looking at filling your SG position and PG position with top end players. Your main Chalk play tonight is going to be James Harden. Without Howard, Harden is going to look to get to the basket and draw fouls, kick out to Ariza for three’s and otherwise control the tempo. Harden is about as much of a lock for 50+ fantasy points as it gets.
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is James Harden, with Whiteside most likely to sit out again tonight, Harden regains the lead in this category.
- The top Double-Double is Greg Monroe with a 52% chance of hitting this mark again tonight.
- The top 3 point player for tonight is James Harden at 2.74 threes but don’t be surprised if Ariza hits 5 or 6 tonight and ends up leading this category.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
Some key highlights from this would be that Harden leads this category and is the only player averaging over 50 for his last 5 but then you have Towns, Wade & Lillard all above 40. The good news is that you can take all of these players on the same lineup tonight and still afford good players to fill out the rest of your lineup.
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden. If you haven’t noticed already, we have already shown several categories where Harden is your guy but a close second is Karly-Anthony Towns. Towns has been on fire of late and look for that to continue as he gets the 30th ranked defense against the Center position in the Lakers tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Avery Bradley. So not only is he one of our top value plays, he is also considered to have the best projection and matchup combo in his respective salary range. Look for a solid performance from him tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Al-Faruq Amino. Amino has played consistent ball all season and with him averaging over 30 minutes per game, that means he will get right around 25 fantasy points with ease. A player that I personally like in this category tonight is Zach Lavine. Similarly, when he gets the time on the floor, he produces fantasy points at a high rate. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and that should equate to more playing time for Lavine.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
For DraftKings tonight, we have already exposed you to several key players that we are strongly considering for tonight. James Harden is a MustHave player tonight along with Towns. These two should make it to every lineup that you put together. Next we have D-Wade combined with Lavine at the other guard positions. Ariza should be a high scoring player tonight along with Aminu and Ed Davis for the Blazers kicking in about 50 fantasy points, this lineup is built for success tonight. The last player we have is Amare’ Stoudemire. We all know that he is a player that you cannot count on for the long haul but with Whiteside expected to sit out again tonight, that means a start for Stoudemire who has done very well in the absence of Whiteside, going over 30 in his last outing.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
For FanDuel, we have several similar players as we have outlined in our top DraftKings lineup. The key differences that we have is the addition of Michael Carter Williams at the PG position and then having to pick between Wade, Harden and Bradley, we are rolling with Bradley and Harden for tonight. Most DFS sites are going to have you consider Carmelo for tonight but we have him ranked 4th at the SF position tonight and Loul Deng not far behind in projected performance for $4,200 less. So we are rolling with Aminu and Ariza at SF tonight. As we transition into PF, we have Bosh as the top projected PF tonight with Ed Davis as our value guy here. Of course, we finish at Center with Towns. Towns should go over 50 fantasy points tonight and will be very highly owned in larger contests simply because of the matchup and cost considerations for him.
- Whiteside has been confirmed as Out so Stoudemire will get the start.
- Howard is out due to suspension.
- Brandon Knight is listed as a game-time decision but expect him to miss at least tonight’s game but could be back later in the week. This means Goodwin will get the start again tonight.
- Jae Crowder is listed as a game-time decision and if he sits this should mean more opportunity for Bradley with some uptick for Turner.
- Kobe Bryant is listed as a game-time decision and with this not being a back to back situation, we believe he will play but with him, these days, who knows up until game-time.
- Jose Calderon is going to sit out again on Tuesday and the main beneficiary for him being out has been Grant, look for a nice sleeper play there.
- Larry Nance Jr. is listed as out as such Randle should see extended time tonight and he will be a strong play at PF tonight.
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