DiRTy Plays #NBA Tuesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 2, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, if you had Jokic and Teague on the same lineup, you probably did just fine. It was nice to see that the Vegas, high projected contest was able to achieve that feat for the first time in just over 8 days but that was largely due to the fact that the contest went into OT. So if you had those two players and played an Ind/Cle stack you probably scored very high last night. Kyle Lowry on the other hand was a complete bust. The Nuggets just shut them down so the thing to note there is if the Nuggets play a top 5 team in the NBA at home, book it, the Nuggets will win that game. They can’t beat anyone else but for some reason (coaching) they are able to compete with the best teams and lose focus for the other 65 – 70 games of the season. If you are a Nuggets fan, this cannot be more frustrating but from a fantasy perspective, it is something noteworthy for you to consider in the future. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

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Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight, according to the numbers is Roy Hibbert. This is largely due to the fact that he has such a low salary, so he doesn’t have to score much to be worth his value. My personal top is Trevor Ariza and the reason is simple….if no D.Howard, then Ariza scores at least 30 fantasy points. Howard is suspended for tonight so take Ariza.
  • The second overall value play for tonight is Ed Davis. He isn’t a player that is going to go off for you but he will consistently get between 20 and 25 fantasy points. The Blazers take on the Bucs, who have given up the most fantasy points to the PF position so far this year, look for a solid number from Davis.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Avery Bradley. With Crowder being a GTD tonight, this means more touches for Bradley who has already been scoring a ton of late. Look for him to get a few extra touches on offense tonight and lock down for a 35+ fantasy point performance tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 38.2/player (76.4 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 36.2/player (72.4 total points)
  • Small Forward – 29.3/player (58.6 total points)
  • Power Forward – 36.9/player (73.8 total points)
  • Center – 46.2/player (46.2 total points)

The stack considerations for tonight are Boston vs. New York being the top projected Over/Under at 208.5 with both Min vs. Hou and Mil vs. Por both hovering at the 205 marker. That said, with only 5 matchups, it might be worth it to just go ahead and stack each contest in the smaller entry contest and see what happens.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 48.6/player (2.9 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 34.8/player (2.01 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 26.4/player (1.4 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.4/player (1.01 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 33.8/player (1.31 C’s per winning lineup)

The order for player selection for tonight you should be looking at filling your SG position and PG position with top end players. Your main Chalk play tonight is going to be James Harden. Without Howard, Harden is going to look to get to the basket and draw fouls, kick out to Ariza for three’s and otherwise control the tempo. Harden is about as much of a lock for 50+ fantasy points as it gets.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is James Harden, with Whiteside most likely to sit out again tonight, Harden regains the lead in this category.
  • The top Double-Double is Greg Monroe with a 52% chance of hitting this mark again tonight.
  • The top 3 point player for tonight is James Harden at 2.74 threes but don’t be surprised if Ariza hits 5 or 6 tonight and ends up leading this category.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

Last5

Some key highlights from this would be that Harden leads this category and is the only player averaging over 50 for his last 5 but then you have Towns, Wade & Lillard all above 40. The good news is that you can take all of these players on the same lineup tonight and still afford good players to fill out the rest of your lineup.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is James Harden. If you haven’t noticed already, we have already shown several categories where Harden is your guy but a close second is Karly-Anthony Towns. Towns has been on fire of late and look for that to continue as he gets the 30th ranked defense against the Center position in the Lakers tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Avery Bradley. So not only is he one of our top value plays, he is also considered to have the best projection and matchup combo in his respective salary range. Look for a solid performance from him tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Al-Faruq Amino. Amino has played consistent ball all season and with him averaging over 30 minutes per game, that means he will get right around 25 fantasy points with ease. A player that I personally like in this category tonight is Zach Lavine. Similarly, when he gets the time on the floor, he produces fantasy points at a high rate. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and that should equate to more playing time for Lavine.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we have already exposed you to several key players that we are strongly considering for tonight. James Harden is a MustHave player tonight along with Towns. These two should make it to every lineup that you put together. Next we have D-Wade combined with Lavine at the other guard positions. Ariza should be a high scoring player tonight along with Aminu and Ed Davis for the Blazers kicking in about 50 fantasy points, this lineup is built for success tonight. The last player we have is Amare’ Stoudemire. We all know that he is a player that you cannot count on for the long haul but with Whiteside expected to sit out again tonight, that means a start for Stoudemire who has done very well in the absence of Whiteside, going over 30 in his last outing.

 

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel, we have several similar players as we have outlined in our top DraftKings lineup. The key differences that we have is the addition of Michael Carter Williams at the PG position and then having to pick between Wade, Harden and Bradley, we are rolling with Bradley and Harden for tonight. Most DFS sites are going to have you consider Carmelo for tonight but we have him ranked 4th at the SF position tonight and Loul Deng not far behind in projected performance for $4,200 less. So we are rolling with Aminu and Ariza at SF tonight. As we transition into PF, we have Bosh as the top projected PF tonight with Ed Davis as our value guy here. Of course, we finish at Center with Towns. Towns should go over 50 fantasy points tonight and will be very highly owned in larger contests simply because of the matchup and cost considerations for him.


Key Injuries:

  • Whiteside has been confirmed as Out so Stoudemire will get the start.
  • Howard is out due to suspension.
  • Brandon Knight is listed as a game-time decision but expect him to miss at least tonight’s game but could be back later in the week. This means Goodwin will get the start again tonight.
  • Jae Crowder is listed as a game-time decision and if he sits this should mean more opportunity for Bradley with some uptick for Turner.
  • Kobe Bryant is listed as a game-time decision and with this not being a back to back situation, we believe he will play but with him, these days, who knows up until game-time.
  • Jose Calderon is going to sit out again on Tuesday and the main beneficiary for him being out has been Grant, look for a nice sleeper play there.
  • Larry Nance Jr. is listed as out as such Randle should see extended time tonight and he will be a strong play at PF tonight.

If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

These Things I Think Tuesday – #GroundhogDay Edition

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1.

Un-Sink-able Levi Stadium:

Will the turf at Levi’s Stadium swallow a player during Sunday’s Super Bowl the way it nearly did with Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker in a game earlier this season?

The NFL’s playing-surface guru says no way.

“I think we’re in great shape,” Ed Mangan, the league’s field director, said in a phone interview Monday.

The field has had its issues during Niners’ home games. Tucker missed a key field goal attempt during the Ravens’ loss to the 49ers in October when the turf gave way beneath him and his left leg slipped on the kick.

Read: NFL vows sinkhole field at Levi’s Stadium will be Super Bowl-worthy – The Washington Post


2.

Opening Night…

I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but there’s a football game scheduled for Sunday. The game isn’t set to be played for another six days, but, really, Monday night marked the beginning of Super Bowl 50.

Welcome to Opening Night of Super Bowl 50, formerly known as Media Day, where seemingly half of the West Coast’s population congregated on Monday night.

The press certainly showed up.

 

So did Katy Perry’s dancing shark pal.

 

And so did the players, from the quarterbacks — Peyton Manning and Cam Newton — to the outspoken cornerbacks — Aqib Talib and Josh Norman. If you missed Opening Night, we’ve got you covered.

Read: Broncos, Panthers star on Opening Night for Super Bowl 50: 11 takeaways – CBSSports.com


3.

No Sunset Yet…

There was no hiding for Peyton Manning. Faced with the prospect of sitting at a podium for an hour on Media Day at Super Bowl 50, Manning was locked into getting questioned about his potential retirement in the wake of comments to Bill Belichick about his “last rodeo.”

His only real defense? Humor.

Read: Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning finally explains his ‘last rodeo’ remark – CBSSports.com


3.

Free and Risky WiFi…

The free high-speed wireless Internet access being offered at Super Bowl 50 events is “very likely” to attract significant cyber threats, according to the FBI’s cyber threat assessment.

An FBI document obtained by CBS San Francisco warns that hackers could target open Wi-Fi networks at the events.

“Open Wi-Fi is just that, it means that there is no security on the Wi-Fi system, they need to realize whatever they are sending out there, it can be viewed by others,” said Jeff Harp, a former FBI agent and CBS San Francisco security analyst.

Read: Super Bowl 2016 cyber threat? Free, open Wi-Fi could be risky – CBS News


4.

He Gone…

The room was dark and there was a table in front of him. That much Justin Tuck remembers about his dream. That and what was written on the sheet of paper that slid in front of him.

Tuck’s dreams are usually nonsensical. This one, though, was poignant and perhaps an answer to his prayers for guidance. Though he’s not sure who passed him the note, he’s perfectly clear about what was written on it.

Retire.

Read: Justin Tuck is retiring after 11 seasons with Giants, Raiders | FOX Sports


5.

No Thanks…

The Phoenix Suns have strong interest in former star guard Steve Nash for their coaching vacancy, but Nash is not interested in going into full-time coaching at this time, according to league sources.

Sources told ESPN that Suns owner Robert Sarver, even before firing Jeff Hornacek early Monday morning after the team’s overnight arrival in Phoenix following a four-game road trip, has had Nash high on his list of potential targets to take over the team.

Read: Steve Nash not interested in Phoenix Suns coaching vacancy, despite team’s interest


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6.

#FanDuel Ultimate Value Lineup

Giving you the Perfect Lineup is easy and we tweet it, post it on Facebook and create an entire post about it in our RESULTS, so……What about if you had the greatest value lineup of all time?  A Lineup that every player chosen had low ownership, way less, and never cost you more than $6,500 – well my friends this is the #NBA Ultimate Value Lineup – culled directly from the numbers and our reports – Check Back Before 4:30p MST everyday and see who we like, and let us Teach You How To #Win!!!

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DiRTy Plays Tuesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 2, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


United Stats of America – #NBA Edition

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1.

Exclusivity…

Spurs, accompanied by Warriors, enter an exclusive club

The Spurs throttled the Magic, 107-92, to earn their 40th victory in 48 games this season. Coupled with the Warriors, who with a 44-4 record, had the night off, this marked only the fourth season in NBA history in which two different teams amassed 40 wins before they suffered 10 losses. It previously happened in the 1980-81 season with the Celtics (40-9) and 76ers (40-8), the 2008-09 season with the Celtics and Lakers (both 40-9), and last season with the Hawks (40-8) and Warriors (40-9).

null+ Green does his thing for a 4th straight game

Jeff Green scored 24 points off the bench to lead the Grizzlies to a 110-95 win at New Orleans – the fourth straight game in which Green has come off the bench to lead the Grizzlies in scoring. Not incidentally, Memphis has won all four of those games; previously, Green scored 30 points in an overtime win over Orlando, 21 points in a win over Milwaukee, and 29 points in a triumph over Sacramento.

Get a load of this one: Green became the first NBA player in more than 21 years to come off the bench in four consecutive games, to finish each of those games as the game’s leading scorer (outright or tied), and to see his team win each of them. The last player to put together four consecutive games like that was Dan Majerle with the Suns in January of 1995.

null+ Teague, in 486th game, finally earns share of king-for-a-day

Jeff Teague poured in a season-high 32 points as the Hawks thumped the Mavericks, 112-97. Teague’s game marked only the third this season in which a Hawks played accumulated at least 30 points; Al Horford provided the two other games of that sort (33 and 30 points). It was the fourth time in Teague’s career that he has scored 30-or-more points, and the Hawks have won each of those games.

Teague and Sacramento’s Rudy Gay, who scored 32 points later in the evening, shared high-scoring honors across Monday’s nine NBA games. It marked the first time in his 486-game career that Teague had been the league’s high scorer for a day, either outright or tied.

null+ Jokic’s big game evokes the young ‘Melo

Rookie Nikola Jokic won’t turn 21 years of age until February 19, but he celebrated the arrival of his birth month by achieving season-highs of 27 points and 14 rebounds to highlight the Nuggets’ 112-93 victory over the visiting Raptors. Jokic became only the second rookie in the Nuggets’ NBA history to produce a 25-point, 10-rebound game before his 21st birthday. Carmelo Anthony had a pair of games like that (26 and 14, and 36 and 11) 12 years ago, at the age of 19.

null+ Westbrook’s quick triple-double vs. Wizards, part II

Russell Westbrook‘s seventh triple-double of the season, and his second in his last two games, led the Thunder to a 114-98 victory over the visiting Wizards. It was Westbrook’s second triple-double against Washington this season – and in each of those games, he achieved it before the end of the third quarter. Westbrook has three before-the-end-of-the-third-quarter triple-doubles this season; no other NBA player has more than one.

Jazz still perfect in overtime vs. Bulls

Gordon Hayward scored the last three points in regulation time to tie the score, then scored six points in overtime to lead the Jazz to a 105-96 victory over the visiting Bulls. And as the game went into the extra period, perceptive Utah fans knew that that the Jazz had the Bulls exactly where they wanted them. This was the fifth regular-season game between the teams that required an overtime period, and the Jazz has won all five of those games, going back to a Feb. 3, 1992 triple-overtime victory over the Jordan-and-Pippen squad. And the only playoff overtime game between the teams also resulted in a Utah victory – in the opening game of the 1998 Finals.

+ Pistons beat the odds

Math quiz: Which team wins? Team A shoots 48.8 percent from the floor; Team B, 42.9 percent. On three-point attempts, Team A makes 43.8 percent; Team B, 33.3 percent. And from the line, Team A hits 86.7 percent; Team B, 68.8 percent. Oh, by the way, Team A is playing at home.

Yes, it’s a trick question. On Monday night, the Pistons overcame all of those disadvantages to secure a 105-100 decision in Brooklyn. In so doing, Detroit became the 17th visiting team this season to play a game in which it was out-shot from the floor by at least 5 percent, from three-point range by at least 10 percent, and from the line by at least 15 percent. But the Pistons were the first of those 17 teams to go home a winner.

+ Cavs get balanced scoring; LeBron counts by sixes

“The Cavaliers took a 111-106 overtime decision over the Pacers in Indianapolis, in a game in which, for only the second time this season, each Cleveland starter produced at least 14 points. (The other such occasion came on January 4, in a 122-100 win over the Raptors.)

LeBron James finished with 24 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists – only the second time that he has reached each of those levels since he returned to Cleveland at the beginning of last season. And the other time he did it, nine nights earlier, the Cavaliers lost the game, at home, to the Bulls.

+ Gay and Acy make up for absence of Cousins

In the absence of DeMarcus Cousins, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Kings outrebounded the Bucks, 53 to 37, and Rudy Gay scored a game-high 32 points to key a 111-104 victory. Quincy Acy, who played 17 minutes, 27 seconds, collected seven offensive rebounds. No NBA player this season has corralled that many offensive rebounds in a game in which he spent so little time on the court.

Source: Stats from the Elias Sports Bureau

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