DiRTy Plays #NBA Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 1, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

In recapping the weekend, we had several key guys put up huge numbers but something to note for this week would be the fact that Klay Thompson has gone over 30 points in game for 3 consecutive games. This means taking Curry at a high price is not of value unless he drops under the $10,000 mark this week. Another player that has been putting up huge numbers since being inserted into the starting lineup is Aaron Gordon. We identified him last week and that paid off considerably last week, look for his price to rise this week but he should still be of value as he will be consistently getting 30 fantasy points per game so long as he continues that level of playing time. Last we have Jeff Hornacek being fired as the Suns head coach so seeing that impact over this week will be valuable as we look to better understand the roles under the next coach. That means having Goodwin and Booker might not be the best play this week as we look to understand this impact. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Aaron GordonOn FanDuel tonight with a salary of still only $4,500, he will significantly out perform this price tag. He has risen to $5,100 on DraftKings and is listed at SF, not quite the advantage that FanDuel is giving you for him.
  • The second overall value play for tonight is Nikola Jokic. He has been playing well of late and with a favorable matchup against the Raptors interior tonight, look for him to out perform his cost for sure tonight.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Thad Young. He has a projection of 34.9 fantasy points for DraftKings and is still in that Notable salary range so look for a solid game from him tonight with a nice matchup against Detroit, who has given up at least 35 fantasy points to the starting PF over their last 5 games.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 34.55/player (69.1 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 32.7/player (65.5 total points)
  • Small Forward – 27.5/player (54.9 total points)
  • Power Forward – 31.9/player (63.9 total points)
  • Center – 54.8/player (54.8 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 308.1 total points.This is a slight drop as the weekend contests had a much lower average score to win. Order for tonight is PG, PF, C, SG, SF so spend on your PG’s tonight, get value at PF and C and then spend where needed on SG and finish your lineup with SF tonight. Don’t forget that Cousins is expected to play tonight and that means the Center position is slightly inflated from normal production.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 33.3/player (3.1 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 30.48/player (2.24 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 35.3/player (1.6 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 47.7/player (1.24 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 31.67/player (1.68 C’s per winning lineup)

The order for player selection for tonight is take your two Chalk plays between Cousins, Westbrook, Durant, Lowry & Anthony Davis and then select as follows:  PG, SG, SF, PF, C….wow first time that order has held true!

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 13% chance.
  • The top double-double guy is Andre Drummond with an alarming 81% chance of hitting this mark.
  • The top projected three point maker for tonight is Paul George at 2.79 three’s with Kyle Lowry coming in just behind him at 2.74 three’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

Top5

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Kyle Lowry as he has a solid matchup against the Nuggets, who give up the most points to the PG position not only over their last 5 but also the last 10 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Rodney Hood. He has been playing lights out of late and is scoring in bunches. Look for this to continue with the Jazz taking on the Bulls tonight.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Evan Fournier as his price tag has dropped considerably making him a value play. Unfortunately, the Magic take on the Spurs tonight as they lead in points given up to the SG and SF position. Another player here, specifically on FanDuel is Aaron Gordon. Yes, he too is playing the Spurs but down low is where you might have a small advantage against the Spurs with Aldridge not playing well and Duncan expected to sit out again tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerOn DraftKings tonight, the main play is Kyle Lowry. Lowry gets the Nuggets who are averaging just over 42 points per game against them to the starting PG over their last 5 games. While that might have to do with who they have played but overall it just means that they don’t play very good defense. Look for Lowry to have a huge night again tonight. When the matchup and the player meet, usually that equates to at least 55 fantasy points. We combine Lowry with a bunch of other mid range guys tonight, instead of our normal 2 chalk plays. That is because we have several notable players that are peaking right now so let’s breakdown the rest of the lineup. Caldwell-Pope has been averaging just over 40 minutes per game over his last 5 and that means he will get 30 fantasy points no matter wat. Gordon Hayward and Nikola Jokic are two of the hottest players right now when measured against their cost. Hayward has gone over 40 fantasy points 4 times in his last 10 games and Jokic has gone for more than 30 in 4 of his last 5. Aaron Gordon is one of our top Sleeper picks and value plays, this means take him even though he has a tough matchup.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerIn breaking down our FanDuel top projected lineup, we have Kyle Lowry and Russell Westbrook as our PG’s tonight. This means we should get over 100 points for this position. As another chalk play, we are also going to go with Durant tonight as we expect at least 50 from him as well. So we kick start your lineup with 150 fantasy points and so now you only need to get 27.5 fantasy points as an average for each of the remaining players on your lineup. With Aaron Gordon, Thad Young and Nikola Jokic on our lineup that should rake up another average of 35 points per player here or 105 fantasy points. Now we only need 20 points on average for our remaining players and those we have Doug McDermot, Joe Johnson and Wayne Ellington. While this group has only averaged 52.42 fantasy points over their last 5, we do have one advantage for tonight and that is Ellington is expected to play around 28 minutes which is 10 over his average for the season and he has been right at that 20 fantasy points per game and Doug McDermot will get at least his standard 22 minutes per game again tonight. With Mirotic and Dunleavy out, you would think that he would see closer to 30 minutes tonight and that means opportunity. He has a descent matchup against the Jazz for his position and so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him go for 20 fantasy points tonight. Last we have Joe Johnson, he averages just under 22 for the season and just under 24 over his last 5 so he will get his chances and if he gets hot, he could go for 35 fantasy points tonight. This lineup should get you very close to your 315 mark, good luck tonight!


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays Monday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

February 1, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


The DiRT Canon Weekend Update – #Megatron Edition

name of site - hunter thompson style

1.

Detroit Breakdown:

Word comes down that Calvin Johnson is done.  No more nagging injuries.  No more missed opportunities.  No more chance for the Lions to cut him.  Megatron gets to go out on his terms, with plenty of energon left in the tank.  What is it about Detroit that seems to see franchise icons walk away?

This feels different than Barry Sanders walking away.  It feels different because the game has changed.  Perceptions have changed.  No longer are today’s players willing to risk further destruction for a few extra moments.  It also feels different because we thought Barry was just sick of losing in Detroit and that he was gonna resurrect his career in a new uniform.  Calvin seems at peace and contentment with his decision.  The calendar just struck 30 for Calvin, and what better way to heal a tired warrrior’s body then spending the salad days on a beach, earning 20%.

EXTRA – EXTRA….

+ Megatron drops a mega-bomb

ESPN reported on Sunday that Calvin Johnson has planned since last summer to make 2015 his final season in the NFL. If Johnson sticks to that plan, his total of 1,214 receiving yards will be the highest in NFL history by a player in his final season in the league. Three other players gained at least 1000 receiving yards in their last season: Sterling Sharpe (1,119), Reggie Langhorne (1,038), and Jimmy Smith (1,023).

+ Johnson’s absence would be felt by Stafford

Calvin Johnson accounted for 31 percent of Matthew Stafford’s passing yards since the Lions drafted Stafford in 2009. During those seven seasons, only one other receiver was responsible for a greater percentage of a quarterback’s passing yards than Johnson was for Stafford (minimum: 5000 passing yards). A.J. Green has accounted for 32 percent of Andy Dalton’s total.

2.

MMQB with Peter King…

Before building the Broncos into a winner, John Elway cut his teeth in player personnel by watching his father. Plus, the Joy of Cam, Marvin Harrison vs. T.O. in Hall of Fame voting, Doug Williams recalls the greatest quarter in Super Bowl history and more from San Francisco as Super Bowl week kicks off

+ Read: John Elway, Broncos GM, learned from father Jack Elway | The MMQB with Peter King

+ Watch: Your Pro Bowl Highlight Is Richard Sherman Dropping An RKO On Clay Matthews

3.

SuperSnooze?

While we prepare for Super Bowl 50 on Feb. 7, you may have wondered if the game is gonna be any good – we all remember some stinkers.  So when thinking about makes a good Superbowl, The Washington Post has given us the 10 Least watchable Superbowls of all time. They arrived at these conclusions by asking a few questions: Was there exciting drama? A legendary performance? A moment that we still can’t forget? Or were they just all hype and no substance?

So, here are the 10 least watchable Super Bowls.

Agree? Disagree? Tell us in the comments.

+ Read: Ranking the watchability of every Super Bowl ever played – The Washington Post

4.

Put That In Your Pipe…

The smile that flashed across John Scott’s face again and again throughout the 2016 Honda NHL All-Star Game was the perfect symbol of his adventure at Bridgestone Arena on Sunday.

It also looks like the NHL may have gotten this right. If you actually watched the NHL All Star game, you might have enjoyed it!  As well as, John Scott giving it to Jeremy Roenick. Roenick apologized to It was a good job by both Roenick for the apology and Scott for acknowledging it….with a dig, that made this a true Cinderella story.

+ Read: Scott named MVP of Pacific’s All-Star Game victory

5.

Suns of Anarchy?

You may have never felt like Jeff was that good anyway.  The year they broke out and won 48 games, everybody seemed to be having career years, running around without any perceived strategy. Every game was Dragic+Bledsoe driving to the basket – Frye shooting 3’s off the pick n roll – Green chuckin’ it as soon as he gets it – or the Morris brothers taking and making contested mid range shots. There never appeared to be any real ball movement.

The Phoenix Suns fired Jeff Hornacek on Sunday night, ending his tenure as head coach with a 14-35 start to the 2015-16 NBA season.  How many of those guys above are still with the team and how much of that sliding win% is Hornacek’s fault.  Screams more of #FirstWorldProblems from ownership having unrealistic expectations.  I cold be wrong.

+ Read: Jeff Hornacek Fired by Suns: Latest Details, Comments and Reaction 

6.

Rising Arizona?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have two of the best hitters in baseball, but not much else around them.

Apparently, general manager Dave Stewart feels the acquisition of shortstop Jean Segura from the Milwaukee Brewers in Saturday’s five-player trade will help remedy that shortcoming.

However, except for a stellar first half of 2013, Segura has been an average to below-average major league player. Over the past two years, he’s posted a .252/.285/.331 slash line in hitter-friendly Milwaukee.

+ Read: Jean Segura joins better offense in Arizona, but won’t really help it