February 1, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play
In recapping the weekend, we had several key guys put up huge numbers but something to note for this week would be the fact that Klay Thompson has gone over 30 points in game for 3 consecutive games. This means taking Curry at a high price is not of value unless he drops under the $10,000 mark this week. Another player that has been putting up huge numbers since being inserted into the starting lineup is Aaron Gordon. We identified him last week and that paid off considerably last week, look for his price to rise this week but he should still be of value as he will be consistently getting 30 fantasy points per game so long as he continues that level of playing time. Last we have Jeff Hornacek being fired as the Suns head coach so seeing that impact over this week will be valuable as we look to better understand the roles under the next coach. That means having Goodwin and Booker might not be the best play this week as we look to understand this impact. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play for tonight is Aaron Gordon. On FanDuel tonight with a salary of still only $4,500, he will significantly out perform this price tag. He has risen to $5,100 on DraftKings and is listed at SF, not quite the advantage that FanDuel is giving you for him.
- The second overall value play for tonight is Nikola Jokic. He has been playing well of late and with a favorable matchup against the Raptors interior tonight, look for him to out perform his cost for sure tonight.
- The third overall value play for tonight is Thad Young. He has a projection of 34.9 fantasy points for DraftKings and is still in that Notable salary range so look for a solid game from him tonight with a nice matchup against Detroit, who has given up at least 35 fantasy points to the starting PF over their last 5 games.
Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:
Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.
- Point Guard – 34.55/player (69.1 total points)
- Shooting Guard – 32.7/player (65.5 total points)
- Small Forward – 27.5/player (54.9 total points)
- Power Forward – 31.9/player (63.9 total points)
- Center – 54.8/player (54.8 total points)
The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 308.1 total points.This is a slight drop as the weekend contests had a much lower average score to win. Order for tonight is PG, PF, C, SG, SF so spend on your PG’s tonight, get value at PF and C and then spend where needed on SG and finish your lineup with SF tonight. Don’t forget that Cousins is expected to play tonight and that means the Center position is slightly inflated from normal production.
- Point Guard – 33.3/player (3.1 PG’s per winning lineup)
- Shooting Guard – 30.48/player (2.24 SG’s per winning lineup)
- Small Forward – 35.3/player (1.6 SF’s per winning lineup)
- Power Forward – 47.7/player (1.24 PF’s per winning lineup)
- Center – 31.67/player (1.68 C’s per winning lineup)
The order for player selection for tonight is take your two Chalk plays between Cousins, Westbrook, Durant, Lowry & Anthony Davis and then select as follows: PG, SG, SF, PF, C….wow first time that order has held true!
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
We have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.
- The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 13% chance.
- The top double-double guy is Andre Drummond with an alarming 81% chance of hitting this mark.
- The top projected three point maker for tonight is Paul George at 2.79 three’s with Kyle Lowry coming in just behind him at 2.74 three’s tonight.
Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.
To download a full copy of this report, click here.
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Kyle Lowry as he has a solid matchup against the Nuggets, who give up the most points to the PG position not only over their last 5 but also the last 10 games.
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Rodney Hood. He has been playing lights out of late and is scoring in bunches. Look for this to continue with the Jazz taking on the Bulls tonight.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Evan Fournier as his price tag has dropped considerably making him a value play. Unfortunately, the Magic take on the Spurs tonight as they lead in points given up to the SG and SF position. Another player here, specifically on FanDuel is Aaron Gordon. Yes, he too is playing the Spurs but down low is where you might have a small advantage against the Spurs with Aldridge not playing well and Duncan expected to sit out again tonight.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
On DraftKings tonight, the main play is Kyle Lowry. Lowry gets the Nuggets who are averaging just over 42 points per game against them to the starting PG over their last 5 games. While that might have to do with who they have played but overall it just means that they don’t play very good defense. Look for Lowry to have a huge night again tonight. When the matchup and the player meet, usually that equates to at least 55 fantasy points. We combine Lowry with a bunch of other mid range guys tonight, instead of our normal 2 chalk plays. That is because we have several notable players that are peaking right now so let’s breakdown the rest of the lineup. Caldwell-Pope has been averaging just over 40 minutes per game over his last 5 and that means he will get 30 fantasy points no matter wat. Gordon Hayward and Nikola Jokic are two of the hottest players right now when measured against their cost. Hayward has gone over 40 fantasy points 4 times in his last 10 games and Jokic has gone for more than 30 in 4 of his last 5. Aaron Gordon is one of our top Sleeper picks and value plays, this means take him even though he has a tough matchup.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
In breaking down our FanDuel top projected lineup, we have Kyle Lowry and Russell Westbrook as our PG’s tonight. This means we should get over 100 points for this position. As another chalk play, we are also going to go with Durant tonight as we expect at least 50 from him as well. So we kick start your lineup with 150 fantasy points and so now you only need to get 27.5 fantasy points as an average for each of the remaining players on your lineup. With Aaron Gordon, Thad Young and Nikola Jokic on our lineup that should rake up another average of 35 points per player here or 105 fantasy points. Now we only need 20 points on average for our remaining players and those we have Doug McDermot, Joe Johnson and Wayne Ellington. While this group has only averaged 52.42 fantasy points over their last 5, we do have one advantage for tonight and that is Ellington is expected to play around 28 minutes which is 10 over his average for the season and he has been right at that 20 fantasy points per game and Doug McDermot will get at least his standard 22 minutes per game again tonight. With Mirotic and Dunleavy out, you would think that he would see closer to 30 minutes tonight and that means opportunity. He has a descent matchup against the Jazz for his position and so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him go for 20 fantasy points tonight. Last we have Joe Johnson, he averages just under 22 for the season and just under 24 over his last 5 so he will get his chances and if he gets hot, he could go for 35 fantasy points tonight. This lineup should get you very close to your 315 mark, good luck tonight!
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