DiRTy Plays #NBA Friday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 29, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016


DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, it was all about them Bulls. Both Gasol and Butler did not disappoint last night as both went for over their projection of 46 and 49 respectfully. Additionally, you had Ryan Anderson tie a career high in points as we predicted and secured a 50+ fantasy performance along with Cole and Rondo, our top lineup scored 353 on FanDuel last night and cashed in all contests. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Chris Bosh. He comes in with a very close projection to his needed points for tonight’s salary to be of value. Rarely do you get a positive value number for that player’s salary when they are projected above 35. Take Bosh tonight.
  • The 2nd overall value play is Tyson Chandler. While splitting time with Len, he is still getting over 25 minutes and he will get the boards tonight. Look for a 30+ fantasy point performance from Chandler again tonight.
  • The 3rd overall value play for tonight is Dion Waiters. He has been averaging over 30 minutes and the OKC vs. HOU matchup is the highest projected game per Vegas tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 38.2/player (76.4 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 36.2/player (72.4 total points)
  • Small Forward – 29.3/player (58.6 total points)
  • Power Forward – 36.9/player (73.8 total points)
  • Center – 46.2/player (46.2 total points)

The average winning score was not affected by last night as such keep your order rolling with PG, PF, C, SG, SF.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 48.6/player (2.9 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 34.8/player (2.01 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 26.4/player (1.4 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.4/player (1.01 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 33.8/player (1.31 C’s per winning lineup)

The key for tonight is getting value at Center and then taking the high end guards. Westbrook should be your chalk play for tonight.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayPotentialWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Westbrook with just over a 10% chance of hitting this mark.
  • The top Double-Double is Drummond is an 83% chance of hitting this mark tonight.
  • The top 3 point player for tonight is James Harden at 2.7 three’s tonight.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

Last5

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Russell Westbrook, just take him and you will get at least 50 fantasy points. This is a lock!
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Kentavius Caldwell-Pope as he comes in with a projection of 30.46 and is leading the team in minutes played per game at just under 40 minutes per game.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Kelly Olynk. His projection of 25.15 is the highest for him in quite some time and he presents that value you need for a big guy.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration
DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight we are going to roll with Harden and Lavine. We will have another lineup with Westbrook but the top overall projected lineup for tonight based on our custom algorithms had Harden and Durant as the chalk plays. Then you would have Lavine at PG along with Devin Booker and Langston Galloway for additional guards. Taking Hawes at Center for value along with Marvin Williams and Derrick Williams assuming that Porzingis and/or Anthony will sit out again tonight which as of 6:30 EST they are both expected to play so you might consider a different play here such as Olynk at center and then rolling with Pope at guard.

 

 

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel, we have some key players such as Kemba, Wiggins & Durant as our top players. At Center we are going with Gobert, who has quietly been tearing it up tonight. Tristan Thompson should have a good game again tonight as he is back in the starting lineup along with Chandler Parsons who is also a strong play for tonight.

 

 

 

 

 


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays Friday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 29, 2016

DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


DiRTyPlays_Logo_Jan27_2016

FD_Basketball_Image

Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


Thoughts on #SuperBowl50 in #Murica

name of site - hunter thompson style

usa-nfl-map-collage-6-mb-art-factory

If you consider all the things about football, it’s the simple mistakes that might be the difference between winning or losing, particularly a Big game — read Playoffs, read esp. Super Bowl. We are talking about small failures, here — basic mechanical failures, mental errors and blind spots of memory. Foolish laziness that nobody noticed in the first three games of the year will loom gigantic in the playoffs. A simple dropped pass in the fourth quarter will haunt a football player for the rest of his life and cause him to scream in his sleep. Those things will never be forgotten.

Indeed. There are many cruel Rooms in the mansion, and many deep holes in the Road. Keep alert or get stabbed. Of all the shocks and pains that every football season brings, the worst of all is the ending of it. And that is what we face now — two Sunday’s from now, in fact, before the bell tolls. There will be no appeal, no extension, no replay. That will be the end of the football season, no matter who complains.

A few geeks will, of course. A few swine always do. No barrel is utterly clean. That would be atmospherically impossible, right? And rest assured that nothing on this Earth is 100 percent clean. Nothing…. Maybe you are one of those people who honestly believes that Cats are clean? I hope not, because you are saddling up for a serious fall. Cats are filthy, and they don’t mind passing it around. The smell of a large cat (as in Lion or Panther) at room temperature in a sea-level house is so powerful and so disorienting as to derail the human brain. The odor of a mountain lion in the wild is far more terrifying than the sight of the beast, even on a frozen night in the snow. It will literally “take your breath away” at 10 or even 20 yards. Your whole nervous system will seize up and be paralyzed, even your lungs. So stay away from all animals that are bigger than you are, especially at night when they are nervous. A brown bear will eat your whole body in 24 hours. Beware.

What? Why are we worrying about bears and cats at this time of year, days before the Super Bowl? I’ll tell you why: Because every time I think about Denver in the Superbowl and Football and Patriotism all at once, I think of Nixon and dangerous wild animals and his lust for power. Nixon was a football fan — and so am I, as it happens, and I can tell you from years of keen observation that us football fans have a way of getting together, no matter where we are.

There is nothing supernatural about it, but I have witnessed it happen over and over. Football fans share a universal language that cuts across many cultures and many personality types. A serious football fan is never alone. We are legion, and Football is often the only thing we have in common. We recognize each other instantly, even if we have to speak in sign language, or raised eyebrows. No doubt it has something to do with the gambling instinct, which is also universal.

The next time you find yourself in need of conversation in some backwoods foreign airport, as I have from time to time, take this tip and look around for the nearest public TV set that is tuned to a football game. That will be your oasis, no matter how long your layover may. You will get your questions answered.

Gaming is another universal language, along with simple mathematics, cold beer, and wild sex. Any traveler who is conversant in these tongues and football too will find friends in any town. Take my word for it.

It goes without saying, of course, that extreme behavior in all these lines is not recommended. Heavy drinking and berserk gambling among strangers will usually lead to trouble on the road, and you want to keep in mind that airport bars are no longer as tolerant as they used to be. Last year’s fun is today’s crime. Even tying your shoes in an airport could get you locked up.

It will not be long before all major airlines will require all passengers to disrobe and change into standard Hospital gowns before they board a plane. This is already in the planning stage, according to a lawyer from Albuquerque who also assures me that sleeping gas will be introduced later this year on flights of 40 minutes or longer. “The gas has already been market tested,” he said. “Passengers are heavily in favor of it.”

“What passengers?” I asked him. “Not football fans on their way to Santa Clara, I bet, or people who have to write speeches on airplanes.”

“There will be no exceptions,” he assured me. “Only uniformed soldiers and police officials licensed to carry concealed weapons.”

“That’s good,” I said. “I have a machine gun license.”

“Very funny,” he said. “Don’t push your luck these days. That’s why we have these new secret prisons.”

I hung up and crossed his name off my guest list for the Super Bowl. Nazis are not welcome at this party. They can’t be trusted.

So how about the Big Game, sport? Who is going to win?

Who indeed?! But if I were a betting man I would go with…Find out later,  I might even go double on it. Why not? It’s the last game of the year. I won’t lose….


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released over nearly 400 prop bets for wagering. Click on the picture for a PDF with all of them, and enjoy.

Click for all PROP-BETS