DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 28, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, Wednesday was a lot of action with not a lot of big results. Last night marked the first time that we didn’t have at least 4 players go over 50 fantasy points in a single night during the month of January. Instead we had a bunch of guys in that middle 30’s to mid 40’s range with players like Farried & Hayward putting up solid numbers. The big guys in the Philly vs. Pistons game were the guys to have as Noel and Drummond both had monster games. Most winning lineups had Archie Goodwin even though he only produced 20 fantasy points where as Klay Thompson reminded us of his ability to score throwing down 45 actual points and going over 50 fantasy points for the only the second time this season. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Jrue Holiday and with him coming off one of his best performances of the season, the injury bug continues to cause issues for the Pelicans and Holiday should remain a top fantasy performer again tonight with Evans still expected to play but he is hurt.
  • The second overall value play for tonight is Gary Harris. He has put up 4 straight solid 25+ fantasy performances and he is coming off a back to back where the Nuggets should be in a shoot out with the Wiz tonight. Look for Harris to get around 30 fantasy points with a small salary so huge value here.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Willie Cauley-Stein. This young big man has begun to put it together of late going for over 30 in 2 of his last 5 games and going over 22 in all 5 of them. The Kings play the Pelicans tonight with this being the highest projected scoring game according to Vegas tonight and Anthony Davis is a GTD so look for the big guys of Sacramento to have solid games tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 38.2/player (76.4 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 36.2/player (72.4 total points)
  • Small Forward – 29.3/player (58.6 total points)
  • Power Forward – 36.9/player (73.8 total points)
  • Center – 46.2/player (46.2 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 327.4 total points.This is the highest that we have seen since we started tracking this number at the end of last season. So tonight it is all about contest selection in terms of making solid plays tonight. Thursday is FanDuel Night as such there are several TNT contests and the $2 TNT Slam is our favorite but it will have an average score that is slightly higher than the rest. Tonight you should be looking at the $25 TNT 250k Slam with that having a slightly lower average winning score at 312.1 this season.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 48.6/player (2.9 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 34.8/player (2.01 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 26.4/player (1.4 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.4/player (1.01 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 33.8/player (1.31 C’s per winning lineup)

The order for player selection for tonight you should be looking at filling your SG position and PG position with top end players. Cousins is in play tonight so he is always a strong consideration but if Anthony Davis isn’t going to play then taking Ryan Anderson at PF is a very good play on DraftKings.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayPotentialWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 13% chance. It should be noted that Marc Gasol is the only other player with a Triple-Double this season for those that are playing tonight
  • The top Double-Double is Cousins at just over 57% with Wall and Pau Gasol just behind at 55%
  • The top 3 point player for tonight is Paul George at just over 2.8 threes per game so far this season.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

top5

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeMarcus Cousins for tonight and really why wouldn’t he be. He has played lights out, the exception was the second game of a back to back earlier this week where he only managed 24 fantasy points. Aside from that he has been over 60 fantasy points and is still averaging over 60 in his last 5 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Jrue Holiday. He has been playing around 35 minutes per game and with Evans hurt and Anthony Davis listed as a Game-Time Decision, Holiday is in line to get a bunch of shots and run the show again tonight against the Kings, whom give up a ton of points to the PG position.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Willie Cauley-Stein on DraftKings and Robin Lopez for FanDuel. Both players have been playing well of late but Stein has really been producing for the Kings as he looks to continue his streak of over 20 fantasy points again tonight. The advantage that Lopez has is that Carmelo isn’t going to play again tonight so that means that he will get a few more opportunities on the offensive side of the ball and he should be able to handle the glass again tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we are going to roll with our #AbsoluteMustHave of Cousins and we should expect at least 50 points out of him again tonight. Then we are going to roll with Holiday as our #AbsoluteNotable as we expect him to be the top performer at PG tonight. We will take a run at Lopez for Center and our top sleeper play of Gary Harris at guard. Then we will take a chalk play of Khris Middleton and take a risk with Shroeder and Jeff Green tonight. The last position is Derrick Williams and if you read earlier in the week, then you know that Williams is always huge whenever Melo sits out this season. In fact Williams should go for around 40 fantasy points with Melo out again tonight and this should get us around 270 fantasy points. Based on our projections, the needed score to win tonight is only going to be 258 in all of the main 50/50 contests so you should be able to hit some fairly large ROI for tonight with this lineup.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration
FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel, we have very consistent lineup with a projection of 266 and a last 5 game average of 278 fantasy points. With the needed points projected to be at 327 fantasy points tonight, the ceiling for this lineup at 464 fantasy points is one of the highest we have put together this season. Taking the players of Holiday and Rondo with DeRozan and Butler, this should create very high value and should produce over 200 fantasy points at the guard positions. Some key notes here is that Mirotic is out indefinitely and that means more scoring for Butler and in Toronto we have a game-time decision for Kyle Lowry, if he doesn’t go then DeRozan is a must play as he will have to do all of the scoring and that means he will put down over 50 fantasy points for sure. Casspi will get the nod again tonight with Gay out, Randle and Cauley-Stein very high value plays for tonight with Robin Lopez taking down the center position.


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