DiRTy Plays #NBA Thursday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 28, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Thursday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, Wednesday was a lot of action with not a lot of big results. Last night marked the first time that we didn’t have at least 4 players go over 50 fantasy points in a single night during the month of January. Instead we had a bunch of guys in that middle 30’s to mid 40’s range with players like Farried & Hayward putting up solid numbers. The big guys in the Philly vs. Pistons game were the guys to have as Noel and Drummond both had monster games. Most winning lineups had Archie Goodwin even though he only produced 20 fantasy points where as Klay Thompson reminded us of his ability to score throwing down 45 actual points and going over 50 fantasy points for the only the second time this season. Now, I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Jrue Holiday and with him coming off one of his best performances of the season, the injury bug continues to cause issues for the Pelicans and Holiday should remain a top fantasy performer again tonight with Evans still expected to play but he is hurt.
  • The second overall value play for tonight is Gary Harris. He has put up 4 straight solid 25+ fantasy performances and he is coming off a back to back where the Nuggets should be in a shoot out with the Wiz tonight. Look for Harris to get around 30 fantasy points with a small salary so huge value here.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Willie Cauley-Stein. This young big man has begun to put it together of late going for over 30 in 2 of his last 5 games and going over 22 in all 5 of them. The Kings play the Pelicans tonight with this being the highest projected scoring game according to Vegas tonight and Anthony Davis is a GTD so look for the big guys of Sacramento to have solid games tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 38.2/player (76.4 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 36.2/player (72.4 total points)
  • Small Forward – 29.3/player (58.6 total points)
  • Power Forward – 36.9/player (73.8 total points)
  • Center – 46.2/player (46.2 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 327.4 total points.This is the highest that we have seen since we started tracking this number at the end of last season. So tonight it is all about contest selection in terms of making solid plays tonight. Thursday is FanDuel Night as such there are several TNT contests and the $2 TNT Slam is our favorite but it will have an average score that is slightly higher than the rest. Tonight you should be looking at the $25 TNT 250k Slam with that having a slightly lower average winning score at 312.1 this season.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 48.6/player (2.9 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 34.8/player (2.01 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 26.4/player (1.4 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.4/player (1.01 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 33.8/player (1.31 C’s per winning lineup)

The order for player selection for tonight you should be looking at filling your SG position and PG position with top end players. Cousins is in play tonight so he is always a strong consideration but if Anthony Davis isn’t going to play then taking Ryan Anderson at PF is a very good play on DraftKings.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

BigPlayPotentialWe have officially released the full version of the Big Play Potential and this should be a highly used set of information specifically for DraftKings as this will be a big indication for having players hit those all important bonuses.

  • The top Triple-Double guy for tonight is Rajon Rondo with a 13% chance. It should be noted that Marc Gasol is the only other player with a Triple-Double this season for those that are playing tonight
  • The top Double-Double is Cousins at just over 57% with Wall and Pau Gasol just behind at 55%
  • The top 3 point player for tonight is Paul George at just over 2.8 threes per game so far this season.

Be sure to check out the detail of this report as you will get to see how players are trending in their last 5 and last 10 games relative to these categories.

To download a full copy of this report, click here.

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players based on their last 5 games played in order:

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Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeMarcus Cousins for tonight and really why wouldn’t he be. He has played lights out, the exception was the second game of a back to back earlier this week where he only managed 24 fantasy points. Aside from that he has been over 60 fantasy points and is still averaging over 60 in his last 5 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Jrue Holiday. He has been playing around 35 minutes per game and with Evans hurt and Anthony Davis listed as a Game-Time Decision, Holiday is in line to get a bunch of shots and run the show again tonight against the Kings, whom give up a ton of points to the PG position.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Willie Cauley-Stein on DraftKings and Robin Lopez for FanDuel. Both players have been playing well of late but Stein has really been producing for the Kings as he looks to continue his streak of over 20 fantasy points again tonight. The advantage that Lopez has is that Carmelo isn’t going to play again tonight so that means that he will get a few more opportunities on the offensive side of the ball and he should be able to handle the glass again tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we are going to roll with our #AbsoluteMustHave of Cousins and we should expect at least 50 points out of him again tonight. Then we are going to roll with Holiday as our #AbsoluteNotable as we expect him to be the top performer at PG tonight. We will take a run at Lopez for Center and our top sleeper play of Gary Harris at guard. Then we will take a chalk play of Khris Middleton and take a risk with Shroeder and Jeff Green tonight. The last position is Derrick Williams and if you read earlier in the week, then you know that Williams is always huge whenever Melo sits out this season. In fact Williams should go for around 40 fantasy points with Melo out again tonight and this should get us around 270 fantasy points. Based on our projections, the needed score to win tonight is only going to be 258 in all of the main 50/50 contests so you should be able to hit some fairly large ROI for tonight with this lineup.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration
FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel, we have very consistent lineup with a projection of 266 and a last 5 game average of 278 fantasy points. With the needed points projected to be at 327 fantasy points tonight, the ceiling for this lineup at 464 fantasy points is one of the highest we have put together this season. Taking the players of Holiday and Rondo with DeRozan and Butler, this should create very high value and should produce over 200 fantasy points at the guard positions. Some key notes here is that Mirotic is out indefinitely and that means more scoring for Butler and in Toronto we have a game-time decision for Kyle Lowry, if he doesn’t go then DeRozan is a must play as he will have to do all of the scoring and that means he will put down over 50 fantasy points for sure. Casspi will get the nod again tonight with Gay out, Randle and Cauley-Stein very high value plays for tonight with Robin Lopez taking down the center position.


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

DiRTy Plays Thursday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 28, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjectionsThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.


Banner_NewLogo_FullFanDuel_Salary Breakdown


SalaryBreakdownIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.


73 Seconds…

name of site - hunter thompson style

1.

Drop In The Bucket…

Did we forget about Klay?  As Draymond rises and Steph improves beyond icons, we seem to have forgotten about Klay.  Thompson dropped 45 on the Mavericks last night, getting payback for one of their losses, by 20pts – Is Carlyle now on Hot-Seat?  ESPN’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss expands on Kerr’s thoughts on Klay: “…he’s fine taking a back seat to Steph. It works well. They obviously play well together, but I think there always has to be a little bit of a pecking order in the NBA. Klay’s personality suits that second option perfectly.”  Thompson is a quiet all-star that fits perfectly with Golden State.

2.

Spurred On…

What did we think they were gonna do?  Quit?  Lose by 30 and announce the season was over?  So while Golden State came back down to earth and beat the Mavs by twenty, The Spurs treated Houston like a birthday party and blew them out by 31.  So you can say the Spurs bounced back and showed Houston how far away from contending they still are, plus 5 more things.  You think that at some point, while Aldridge is getting better and showing chemistry, he’ll have to be less passive.  If Aldridge can be more like young Dirk and drive to the basket, the way the Spurs play would make more noise in the playoffs.

3.

Started From the Bottom, Now We Here…

The 65th NBA All-Star Game will be the first All-Star Game held outside of the U.S. The game will be seen by fans in more than 200 countries and territories and will be heard in more than 40 languages. TNT will televise the All-Star Game in the U.S. for the 14th consecutive year, marking Turner Sports’ 31st year of NBA All-Star coverage.

…And all of that is nice.  The Game is even on Valentine’s Day, awwww.  So who will be coaching the Eastern Conference All-Stars?  The answer is a guy who just started, Tyronn Lue – because he deserves the honor.  So tune in to TNT at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 14 from Air Canada Centre in Toronto, and watch history in the making – just make sure you take the over.

HicksJasoHill

4.

Under-rated…

The winter that was — and, in some cases, still is — defined by the nine-figure notables (David Price, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann), some blockbuster swaps (Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Todd Frazier, Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons, to name a few), some international intrigue (Kenta Maeda and Byung Ho Park), the rewarded hand-wringing of the Mets faithful (welcome back, Yo), the limits-testing patience required of the likes of Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Howie Kendrick, etc., and, as usual, the art of surprise.

Lost in all that discussion, though, are the people on the periphery. So let’s round up some of them here with the best acquisitions nobody’s talking about (until now)……

+ Keep Reading: The 10 best MLB pickups nobody is talking about.

5.

Might As Well Jump…

From Deadspin: The second period of the Predators’ 2-1 win over the Flames featured a strange moment, as Flames defenseman Dennis Wideman absolutely leveled linesman Don Henderson on his way back to the bench. The hit sure looks intentional, but Wideman had just been checked hard into the boards, and looked pretty woozy sitting on the bench.

Wideman wasn’t penalized, and both he and Henderson stayed in the game. Afterwards he told reporters that he apologized to Henderson on the ice, and that the hit was entirely accidental.

Thankfully Wideman recieved treatment for a concussion before returning to the ice, as per NHL protocol. Of course that protocol is to pop 2 Percocets and wash them down with a can of LaBatts, but still.

6.

If a Tree Falls…

Further proof that the NFL tries too hard to make you care about a game that the players don’t care about, unless your these guys in the picture…I give you the 2016 NFL ProBowl Draft – Are You Not Entertained?!!  Is there some possibility of interest?  Sure, I’m curious about Julio Jones and Russell Wilson on the same team.  But more to the point, are you gonna play it on DraftKings, or bet the Under?  Before you do read more about the drafting of Team Rice and Team Irvin here, from ABC News:

+ Keep Reading: Russell Wilson, Eli Manning top picks in 2016 Pro Bowl draft

7.

A Man Named $uh…

We’ve talked a lot about this guy and how he was not worth the scratch Miami paid him.  Word is, Suh’s monster deal is already causing cap issues for the Dolphins.  

8.

Aloha…

Hawaii’s attorney general has issued an opinion that says daily fantasy is illegal gambling under state law, becoming the umpteenth state attorney general to do so. [Honolulu Star-Advertiser]


73 seconds.

30 years ago today, that was all we saw of the Space Shuttle Challenger.  I remember exactly where I was and still I am reminded by the thoughts that went thru my head of disbelief.  Being at school, being told over the speaker system what happened, hoping the falling cabin contained life…still is hard to believe that 7 people lost their lives because of an O-ring.  18 years and 6 days later there was the second shuttle disaster, when Endeavour disintegrated in re-entry over Texas and Louisiana.  Now, no more shuttles…Prometheus stole fire to provide us a spark, to generate creativity and explore – what shall we do if we never venture out into the unknown?  Bless those that took the chance to peel back the curtain of the great beyond.

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