DiRTy Plays #NBA Wednesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 27, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, Tuesday marked a night for OKC and NYK stack. We have longed talked about a strategy for taking the top 2 or 3 over/under matchups for the night and build stacks based on that infromation. This is a very good strategy and from our analysis will cash about 31.6 percent of the time. When Carmelo was officially listed as Out with only about 20 minutes left in making changes, that should have triggered you to take Derrick Williams. In fact in any game that Melo is out, take Williams as he is yet to score less than 30 fantasy points in the last 4 instances this has occurred. Archie Goodwin was a top fantasy performer and on FanDuel this was a solid max play that afforded you to take Durant, Westbrook and Wade! I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Emmanuel Mudiay as we look at the raw numbers here, Mudiay has produced an average of just over 28 fantasy points over his last 5 and with Nelson expected to miss again tonight, Mudiay is getting the minutes to make him a top value play.
  • The second overall value play for tonight is Archie Goodwin. Specifically on FanDuel, Goodwin is still only $4,100 and he is going to play around 32 minutes until Brandon Knight comes back from his injury. This means you can take Goodwin, expect around 30 fantasy points and now you have the cap room to go and get the top 2 players for tonight.
  • The third overall value play for tonight is Nerlans Noel. While his salary is in our Notable range, his value for this salary is extremely profitable and one you must take advantage of tonight. With Okafor out for tonight, this means that Noel will play around 35 minutes and while he doesn’t score a ton, he is projected to get 2 blocks, over 10 rebounds and a couple of steals. So if he can just crack 10 points in the box score, he will get you between 35 and 45 fantasy points tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

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  • Point Guard – 35.4/player (70.8 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 32.1/player (64.1 total points)
  • Small Forward – 30.9/player (61.8 total points)
  • Power Forward – 32.6/player (65.2 total points)
  • Center – 52.8/player (52.8 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 314.7 total points. With Center leading that production but again Cousins has made this number significantly higher than it typically has been in the past. That said for Center’s tonight, you have value with Hawes or consistency with Jordan or Gobert for tonight. In order of selection for positional analysis you should go PG, PF, SG, SF, C for tonight.

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  • Point Guard – 44.6/player (2.6 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 32.5/player (1.84 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 33.1/player (1.92 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 35.6/player (1.23 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 38.9/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)

The order for player selection for tongith should go PG, C, PF, SF, SG. The top plays for PG tonight on DraftKings are either Curry, Westbrook or Paul but based on our numbers it’s Curry for tonight as he leads everyone in fantasy points per game over their last 5 games at 61.25.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

  • The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Robert Covington
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Draymond Green
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Draymond Green, Chris Paul & Emmanuel Mudiay

As you can see Steph Curry and Draymond Green should be considered for your chalk plays tonight!

Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:

Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players that have averaged over 50 points per game over their last 5. This tells you who is hot right now and those that you should consider for your Chalk plays:

  • Steph Curry – 61.25
  • James Harden – 59.15
  • Kemba Walker – 55.7
  • Kevin Durant – 55.5
  • Russell Westbrook – 52.9
  • Chris Paul – 52.45

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry and the only concern here is will he play in the 4th quarter with Dirk sitting out, chances aren’t very likely thus the reason our reports say LeBron James!
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is playing some great ball of late and has been over 30 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. His salary remains in that $6,000 range and as long as he sits there, he is of value and should be considered each night.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Archie Goodwin for FanDuel and Dennis Schroeder for DraftKings. Goodwin scored 41 fantasy points last night and should get over 35 minutes again tonight. That is over 10 points per dollar spend on FanDuel tonight and he will most likely be owned by more than 25% of the field in main contests. On DraftKings, rolling with Schroeder is a solid play at PG tonight. He has another nice matchup and should get around 30 fantasy points yet again.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzerFor DraftKings tonight, we have several plays tonight that should make for a solid lineup. The first player we are taking, virtually across the board is Archie Goodwin. As long as he gets 30 minutes on the floor then he will get over 30 fantasy points in the game. He remains under $5,000 on DraftKings with a huge upside. Next we have Chandler Parson, who is going to get most of the shots tonight as Dirk will sit out against the Warriors tonight. Now we have Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward who have been playing like they finished the season last year in that they are both hovering around 40 points per game over their last 5 games and they have a solid matchup again tonight. Last we have to ride the Trevor Ariza hot streak even though Dwight Howard is expected to play tonight, Ariza has been hitting the three with the best of em’ of late and should continue with another 4 three’s tonight.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerFor FanDuel, we have one of our highest projected and certainly highest last 5 game average lineups of all time tonight! That said, who do we have in this magic lineup you ask, well it starts with Goodwin at PG. He is only $4,100 again tonight and so you have to take him. We combine him with Westbrook & Durant who are averaging just under 110 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games together. Then you combine Wiggins and Towns who are also just around 80 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games. We continue with Marvin Williams and Tristan Thompson at PF where we go a bit on the cheap side but both players have high upside and should get around 30 fantasy points each. Last we finish with the hot hand of Ariza and add Devon Booker from Phoenix as another cheap play. So lot’s of combo plays on this lineup but strong, hot hands of late to see if we can knock out a 350+ tonight!


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

Countdown to Spring Training – #MLB #NBA #NFL

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1.

3…2…1…

These are the dog days of winter. Football season is (all but) over, the NHL and NBA are in the uneventful middle of their seasons, and Major League Baseball’s free-agent flurry has just about ended. But we’re still just under a month away from the unofficial start of baseball season.

So here’s a list of things to do until Spring Training begins — one every day, Jan. 27 through Feb. 23, the latest date any team’s pitchers and catchers report (looking at you, Rangers and White Sox).

Wednesday, Jan. 27: You’re reading this, aren’t you? Anything else is gravy.

Thursday, Jan. 28: No. 3 Iowa! No. 8 Maryland! 7 p.m. ET on ESPN! Could be a sneaky-good game in a wide-open college basketball landscape.

Friday, Jan. 29: MLBPipeline.com’s top 50 prospects will be unveiled on MLB Network at 9 p.m. ET. The new top-100 list will go live on MLB.com, too.

Saturday, Jan. 30: What’s the record for largest margin of victory in an NBA game? The Warriors are visiting the 76ers. It starts at 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT on NBA League Pass, so you even get most or all of your night if this game isn’t as fun as it sounds. (You’ll have to stay up pretty late to catch the Australian Open men’s singles final live, which usually airs around 3 a.m. ET on ESPN or ESPN 2.)

Sunday, Jan. 31: Watch the Pro Bowl. Nah, read a book instead…...(Continue Reading: Counting down the final days till Spring Training.)


2.

…Ummm Just One More Thing:

Some have called it a non-story. Others think there’s more to it.

Wherever you fall on the whole Peyton Manning HGH controversy, get ready for it to start creeping into your timeline again because the NFL says it will open its own investigation into allegations that the Broncos QB received the illegal drug at his house during his days with the Colts.

Whether you trust the NFL or not to run an unbiased and thorough investigation—in light of the one they ran regarding Tom Brady and Deflategate—is another story, but it looks like the league is going to sniff around the whole Manning controversy while he prepares for possibly his final game in Super Bowl 50 Feb. 7 against the Panthers.

According to the Indianapolis Star, league spokesman Brian McCarthy said the inquiry, “which began two weeks ago, involves reviews of records, interviews and coordination with other agencies.”…….(Continue Reading: Peyton Manning Under NFL Investigation Over Alleged HGH Shipments)


3.

Shake It Off…

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is enjoying the best season of his career, as he’s led his team to a 17-1 record and an appearance in Super Bowl 50, in addition to being the odds-on favorite for the NFL MVP Award. Instead of celebrating Newton’s brilliance, a large chunk of fans and media pundits have grown to hate Newton because his joy is being misconstrued as cockiness. If you’re one of the haters, here are five reasons why you’re wrong……(Continue Reading: 5 Reasons Why Cam Newton Haters Are Wrong)


4.

Tell The Truth…

This story originally appeared in the Jan. 25, 2016, issue of Sports Illustrated. Certain statistics and sections have been updated to reflect the most recent developments. Subscribe to the magazine here.

The few inarguable facts about Ben Simmons are that he was born in Melbourne, Australia, 19 years and six months ago; he is a 6′ 10″ freshman at Louisiana State who averages 19.8 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game; and he is the player most likely to be picked No. 1 in the 2016 NBA draft. After that, Simmons becomes more difficult to define. Is he a point-forward, a point-center, a giant floor general—or positionless? Is he lefthanded or (given all those righty finishes) ambidextrous? Should he be a primary ballhandler, to capitalize on his court vision and passing skills, or should he play in the paint, to exploit his advantage in athleticism over opposing big men? Is his game more Aussie-influenced or American-influenced, considering that he developed it in both countries and has one parent of each nationality? Can he responsibly be called the second coming of Magic or of King James? And can he be called the best player in the college game when his team is only 13–7?

It’s easier, at this stage, to define Ben Simmons by what he is not…….(Continue Reading: The truth about LSU star freshman Ben Simmons)


5.

We’re Off To See The…

The Boston Celtics are the most confusing team in the NBA. Their best player stands just 5-foot-9. Their head coach had no NBA experience before taking the job in 2013. They don’t have a single player who would be a top-three guy on a championship contender. Yet here they are in the middle of the Eastern Conference’s second-tier teams: fighting for the right to lose to the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals, playing well above their individual talent level, and creating massive headaches for opponents in every game.

Brad Stevens has been on the job for two-and-a-half years and is already……(Continue Reading: Brad Stevens: The wizard of Boston)


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6.

Drops Mic…

When the subject involves the NBA, and the debate features Hubie Brown versus me, I lose. Take, for instance, my belief that you can pick anybody out of the Oakland telephone directory, and that person still would lead the Golden State Warriors to the NBA championship this season.

 All you need to know is that Brown’s 82-year-old head nearly exploded this week from such heresy. He said coaching does matter in the league. In fact, the veteran head coach turned splendid television commentator on national NBA broadcasts went even further……(Continue Reading: Hubie Brown defends importance of NBA coaches.)


7.

He Said/He Said…

LeBron James is now a coach-killer. Or least, he really wants to be. Fingers are pointing at LeBron in the firing of David Blatt. And now a Miami Heat minority owner has claimed that LeBron wanted Erik Spoelstra fired throughout his tenure in Miami and that was why he ended up leaving for Cleveland. Raanan Katz, who played professionally in Israel, was a panelist on an Israeli sports talk radio show to talk about Blatt’s firing when he shared this story about LeBron leaving Miami……(Continue Reading: LeBron James May Have Been a Coach Killer His Entire Career and We Just Didn’t See It)


8.

Last One Out Of The Circus…

Troy Aikman knows what it takes to be a quarterback in Dallas, so we’ll take his word for it when he says that either Johnny Manziel or Robert Griffin III will back up Tony Romo in 2016……(Continue Reading: Aikman: Manziel or RGIII will be Cowboys backup QB)


9.

No Place Like Home…

Perhaps the most memorable and most surreal scene of the 2015 college football season took place on thenight of Nov. 28 in LSU’s Tiger Stadium. With rumors flying about his job security, Les Miles led the Tigers to a win over Texas A&M, then was hoisted on his players’ shoulders and basked in the scene as the place known as Death Valley made it clear that it wanted nobody else to be its coach. Moments later, the wish was granted: Miles kept his job.

The LSU-Texas A&M game turned into a sort of pep rally for Miles, the most intimidating venue in college football proving to be the friendliest possible home for its coach. But it’s not just Death Valley that gives LSU one of the greatest home-field advantages in sports; it’s the entire state of Louisiana.

One week before National Signing Day, Tiger Stadium occupies the most valuable real estate in college football……(Continue Reading: Home-state advantage makes LSU a recruiting power.)

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DiRTy Plays Wednesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 27, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjectionsThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.


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SalaryBreakdownIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.