January 27, 2016
DiRTy Plays – Wednesday 5 Point Play
In recapping last night’s performance, Tuesday marked a night for OKC and NYK stack. We have longed talked about a strategy for taking the top 2 or 3 over/under matchups for the night and build stacks based on that infromation. This is a very good strategy and from our analysis will cash about 31.6 percent of the time. When Carmelo was officially listed as Out with only about 20 minutes left in making changes, that should have triggered you to take Derrick Williams. In fact in any game that Melo is out, take Williams as he is yet to score less than 30 fantasy points in the last 4 instances this has occurred. Archie Goodwin was a top fantasy performer and on FanDuel this was a solid max play that afforded you to take Durant, Westbrook and Wade! I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!
Point 1 – Value Plays:
- The top overall value play for tonight is Emmanuel Mudiay as we look at the raw numbers here, Mudiay has produced an average of just over 28 fantasy points over his last 5 and with Nelson expected to miss again tonight, Mudiay is getting the minutes to make him a top value play.
- The second overall value play for tonight is Archie Goodwin. Specifically on FanDuel, Goodwin is still only $4,100 and he is going to play around 32 minutes until Brandon Knight comes back from his injury. This means you can take Goodwin, expect around 30 fantasy points and now you have the cap room to go and get the top 2 players for tonight.
- The third overall value play for tonight is Nerlans Noel. While his salary is in our Notable range, his value for this salary is extremely profitable and one you must take advantage of tonight. With Okafor out for tonight, this means that Noel will play around 35 minutes and while he doesn’t score a ton, he is projected to get 2 blocks, over 10 rebounds and a couple of steals. So if he can just crack 10 points in the box score, he will get you between 35 and 45 fantasy points tonight.
Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:
Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.
- Point Guard – 35.4/player (70.8 total points)
- Shooting Guard – 32.1/player (64.1 total points)
- Small Forward – 30.9/player (61.8 total points)
- Power Forward – 32.6/player (65.2 total points)
- Center – 52.8/player (52.8 total points)
The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 314.7 total points. With Center leading that production but again Cousins has made this number significantly higher than it typically has been in the past. That said for Center’s tonight, you have value with Hawes or consistency with Jordan or Gobert for tonight. In order of selection for positional analysis you should go PG, PF, SG, SF, C for tonight.
- Point Guard – 44.6/player (2.6 PG’s per winning lineup)
- Shooting Guard – 32.5/player (1.84 SG’s per winning lineup)
- Small Forward – 33.1/player (1.92 SF’s per winning lineup)
- Power Forward – 35.6/player (1.23 PF’s per winning lineup)
- Center – 38.9/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)
The order for player selection for tongith should go PG, C, PF, SF, SG. The top plays for PG tonight on DraftKings are either Curry, Westbrook or Paul but based on our numbers it’s Curry for tonight as he leads everyone in fantasy points per game over their last 5 games at 61.25.
Point 3 – Big Play Potential:
- The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Robert Covington
- The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Draymond Green
- The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Draymond Green, Chris Paul & Emmanuel Mudiay
As you can see Steph Curry and Draymond Green should be considered for your chalk plays tonight!
Point 4 – Last 5 Game Tops:
Over each player’s last 5 games for players that are eligible tonight for contests here is your breakdown for players that have averaged over 50 points per game over their last 5. This tells you who is hot right now and those that you should consider for your Chalk plays:
- Steph Curry – 61.25
- James Harden – 59.15
- Kemba Walker – 55.7
- Kevin Durant – 55.5
- Russell Westbrook – 52.9
- Chris Paul – 52.45
Point 5 – Absolutes:
- The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry and the only concern here is will he play in the 4th quarter with Dirk sitting out, chances aren’t very likely thus the reason our reports say LeBron James!
- The top overall #AbsoluteNotable is Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is playing some great ball of late and has been over 30 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games. His salary remains in that $6,000 range and as long as he sits there, he is of value and should be considered each night.
- The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper is Archie Goodwin for FanDuel and Dennis Schroeder for DraftKings. Goodwin scored 41 fantasy points last night and should get over 35 minutes again tonight. That is over 10 points per dollar spend on FanDuel tonight and he will most likely be owned by more than 25% of the field in main contests. On DraftKings, rolling with Schroeder is a solid play at PG tonight. He has another nice matchup and should get around 30 fantasy points yet again.
DraftKings Lineup Consideration
For DraftKings tonight, we have several plays tonight that should make for a solid lineup. The first player we are taking, virtually across the board is Archie Goodwin. As long as he gets 30 minutes on the floor then he will get over 30 fantasy points in the game. He remains under $5,000 on DraftKings with a huge upside. Next we have Chandler Parson, who is going to get most of the shots tonight as Dirk will sit out against the Warriors tonight. Now we have Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward who have been playing like they finished the season last year in that they are both hovering around 40 points per game over their last 5 games and they have a solid matchup again tonight. Last we have to ride the Trevor Ariza hot streak even though Dwight Howard is expected to play tonight, Ariza has been hitting the three with the best of em’ of late and should continue with another 4 three’s tonight.
FanDuel Lineup Consideration
For FanDuel, we have one of our highest projected and certainly highest last 5 game average lineups of all time tonight! That said, who do we have in this magic lineup you ask, well it starts with Goodwin at PG. He is only $4,100 again tonight and so you have to take him. We combine him with Westbrook & Durant who are averaging just under 110 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games together. Then you combine Wiggins and Towns who are also just around 80 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games. We continue with Marvin Williams and Tristan Thompson at PF where we go a bit on the cheap side but both players have high upside and should get around 30 fantasy points each. Last we finish with the hot hand of Ariza and add Devon Booker from Phoenix as another cheap play. So lot’s of combo plays on this lineup but strong, hot hands of late to see if we can knock out a 350+ tonight!
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