DiRTy Plays #NBA Tuesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 26, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, if you followed our secret sauce, you would have been in the top 500 out of 180,000 entries on FanDuel and just as good within DraftKings. The key takeaways were our value playes of Hawes and Ariza, then Cousins & Rondo as our combo players. Then having T.Thompson, who put up a nice double-double last night with Towns on DraftKings and you have a pile of cash to play with tonight. Now that you have all the information at your fingertips, it’s time to build your lineups for today. I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Jose Calderon. He has been averaging 20.2 over his last 5 and having had a couple of 30 point games over his last 10 with a strong matchup tonight.
  • The second value play for tonight is going to be Wesley Matthews. An unsung player who hits a ton of three’s, making him very viable on DraftKings, look for Matthews to continue his hot streak with another 30 fantasy points tonight.
  • The third value play for tonight is Tyson Chandler. We were going to have Chandler Parsons here as he does have considerable value but when looking for a cheap play tonight, Tyson Chandler should be an automatic double-double tonight and should put up at least 30 fantasy points again tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 35.9/player (71.8 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 33.35/player (66.7 total points)
  • Small Forward – 27.05/player (54.1 total points)
  • Power Forward – 32.1/player (64.2 total points)
  • Center – 58.1/player (58.1 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 314.9 total points. With Center leading that production, keep in mind that Cousins is listed as a Center on FanDuel and he had another massive performance yesterday making this position when considering who is available for tonight really mean you can only take Cousins here. Shooting guard did have a slight come back with Harden putting up solid numbers yesterday but in order for tonight after Cousins, you should go PG, PF, SG, SF. At SF if you are taking Durant or Melo as your chalk play, then you will need to be sure to get two solid mid play guys at PG tonight such as Carter-Williams and Jordan Clarkson.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 41.9/player (2.3 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 39.2/player (2.04 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 27.4/player (1.28 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.9/player (1.46 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 30.1/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)

As you should already know, the bonus plays for 3pt makes along with double-doubles and triple-doubles, the wing players should be more predominately selected in your DraftKings lineup process. Identifying players that have the best chance for hitting these thresholds, should be in your consideration moving forward. It should be noted that it is almost non-existent to have two C’s on your winning lineup.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

  • The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Paul George, JJ Reddick & Kevin Durant
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler & Chris Paul
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Chris Paul (31.6% chance), DeMarcus Cousins & Rajon Rondo

As you can see Chris Paul & DeMarcus Cousins should be considered for your chalk plays tonight!

Point 4 – What Contest should I play:

  • The top contest to play on DraftKings tonight is the $5 NBA 50k zone as that contest has shown an average winning score of only 279.6 over the last 2 weeks. You should also double down with the $5 Massive Double Up and the $3 Sharpshooter contest.
  • The top contest to play on FanDuel tonight is the $20K Tue NBA Block (Single Entry) as this contest has had the lowest average winning score on Tuesday night’s this season at only 291.8 fantasy points needed to win this contest.

In this section, we will identify the contest that has the lowest score to win combined with opportunity for you to make the big bucks each day. We will also hedge this contest with another option if the contest is a main contest.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeMarcus Cousins. I mean look, all this guy has done is average over 62 fantasy points in his last 5 games. Chalk play!
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable for DraftKings is Michael Carter-Williams for tonight. He didn’t have much in his last game against Orlando but Orlando has been giving up a ton of points of late and Williams has been solidly around 30 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper for is Tyson Chandler. He has averaged 30.12 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games including one game in which he put up 60.75.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_lineupanalyzer

 

As you can see we are going with Cousins again tonight alongside our triple-double threat of Chris Paul. We are surrounding these guys with a ton of high value and upside with Goodwin, Calderon and Tyson Chandler. Then we are adding Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons as they have a solid matchup against the Lakers tonight. This lineup should reach our 280 threshold with ease tonight and with a ceiling at 447, this is very high upside potential. The only play in this lineup that is “iffy” tonight is TJ Warren. He has been a roller coaster this season but with the 76ers on the docket that usually bodes well for offensive production and so he will get his shot at playing time tonight. If the game gets out of hand, look for Warren to shoot it a ton as our gut call has him putting up 25 fantasy points tonight.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration
FD_LineupAnalyzerWith Cousins at Center tonight, we wanted to go with a solid back court of Clarkson and MCW. Khris Middleton has been highly productive of late and is averaging over 36 fantasy points per game over his last 5 contests. This means score and score often for Middleton. Omri Casspy will be highly owned tonight with Rudy Gay missing action tonight and Casspy expected to regain his starting role. In games where Gay hasn’t played Casspy has only gone under 30 fantasy points in 1 of 8 of those games so he should be a solid play at SF tonight. Ibaka is the most sure thing guarantee we can give you at PF tonight and we are going to combine him with Nerlans Noel but Chris Bosh and Porzingis are also strong secondary plays for the PF position tonight.

 


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