DiRTy Plays #NBA Tuesday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 26, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Tuesday 5 Point Play

In recapping last night’s performance, if you followed our secret sauce, you would have been in the top 500 out of 180,000 entries on FanDuel and just as good within DraftKings. The key takeaways were our value playes of Hawes and Ariza, then Cousins & Rondo as our combo players. Then having T.Thompson, who put up a nice double-double last night with Towns on DraftKings and you have a pile of cash to play with tonight. Now that you have all the information at your fingertips, it’s time to build your lineups for today. I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Jose Calderon. He has been averaging 20.2 over his last 5 and having had a couple of 30 point games over his last 10 with a strong matchup tonight.
  • The second value play for tonight is going to be Wesley Matthews. An unsung player who hits a ton of three’s, making him very viable on DraftKings, look for Matthews to continue his hot streak with another 30 fantasy points tonight.
  • The third value play for tonight is Tyson Chandler. We were going to have Chandler Parsons here as he does have considerable value but when looking for a cheap play tonight, Tyson Chandler should be an automatic double-double tonight and should put up at least 30 fantasy points again tonight.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

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  • Point Guard – 35.9/player (71.8 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 33.35/player (66.7 total points)
  • Small Forward – 27.05/player (54.1 total points)
  • Power Forward – 32.1/player (64.2 total points)
  • Center – 58.1/player (58.1 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 314.9 total points. With Center leading that production, keep in mind that Cousins is listed as a Center on FanDuel and he had another massive performance yesterday making this position when considering who is available for tonight really mean you can only take Cousins here. Shooting guard did have a slight come back with Harden putting up solid numbers yesterday but in order for tonight after Cousins, you should go PG, PF, SG, SF. At SF if you are taking Durant or Melo as your chalk play, then you will need to be sure to get two solid mid play guys at PG tonight such as Carter-Williams and Jordan Clarkson.

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  • Point Guard – 41.9/player (2.3 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 39.2/player (2.04 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 27.4/player (1.28 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 44.9/player (1.46 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 30.1/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)

As you should already know, the bonus plays for 3pt makes along with double-doubles and triple-doubles, the wing players should be more predominately selected in your DraftKings lineup process. Identifying players that have the best chance for hitting these thresholds, should be in your consideration moving forward. It should be noted that it is almost non-existent to have two C’s on your winning lineup.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

  • The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Paul George, JJ Reddick & Kevin Durant
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler & Chris Paul
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Chris Paul (31.6% chance), DeMarcus Cousins & Rajon Rondo

As you can see Chris Paul & DeMarcus Cousins should be considered for your chalk plays tonight!

Point 4 – What Contest should I play:

  • The top contest to play on DraftKings tonight is the $5 NBA 50k zone as that contest has shown an average winning score of only 279.6 over the last 2 weeks. You should also double down with the $5 Massive Double Up and the $3 Sharpshooter contest.
  • The top contest to play on FanDuel tonight is the $20K Tue NBA Block (Single Entry) as this contest has had the lowest average winning score on Tuesday night’s this season at only 291.8 fantasy points needed to win this contest.

In this section, we will identify the contest that has the lowest score to win combined with opportunity for you to make the big bucks each day. We will also hedge this contest with another option if the contest is a main contest.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is DeMarcus Cousins. I mean look, all this guy has done is average over 62 fantasy points in his last 5 games. Chalk play!
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable for DraftKings is Michael Carter-Williams for tonight. He didn’t have much in his last game against Orlando but Orlando has been giving up a ton of points of late and Williams has been solidly around 30 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper for is Tyson Chandler. He has averaged 30.12 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games including one game in which he put up 60.75.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

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As you can see we are going with Cousins again tonight alongside our triple-double threat of Chris Paul. We are surrounding these guys with a ton of high value and upside with Goodwin, Calderon and Tyson Chandler. Then we are adding Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons as they have a solid matchup against the Lakers tonight. This lineup should reach our 280 threshold with ease tonight and with a ceiling at 447, this is very high upside potential. The only play in this lineup that is “iffy” tonight is TJ Warren. He has been a roller coaster this season but with the 76ers on the docket that usually bodes well for offensive production and so he will get his shot at playing time tonight. If the game gets out of hand, look for Warren to shoot it a ton as our gut call has him putting up 25 fantasy points tonight.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration
FD_LineupAnalyzerWith Cousins at Center tonight, we wanted to go with a solid back court of Clarkson and MCW. Khris Middleton has been highly productive of late and is averaging over 36 fantasy points per game over his last 5 contests. This means score and score often for Middleton. Omri Casspy will be highly owned tonight with Rudy Gay missing action tonight and Casspy expected to regain his starting role. In games where Gay hasn’t played Casspy has only gone under 30 fantasy points in 1 of 8 of those games so he should be a solid play at SF tonight. Ibaka is the most sure thing guarantee we can give you at PF tonight and we are going to combine him with Nerlans Noel but Chris Bosh and Porzingis are also strong secondary plays for the PF position tonight.

 


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

United Stats of America #NBA Edition + 6 Other Things

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Steph Curry and the dominant Warriors aren’t just beating teams anymore, they’re throwing staggering knockout punches against the NBA’s best – make that second-best.

In a span of eight days, Golden State have 30-point wins over Cleveland, Chicago and San Antonio. Curry scored 37 points and hit six three-pointers in three scintillating quarters Monday night, and the reigning champions showed they still rule the West by routing the Spurs 120-90.

“No moment’s too big, obviously,” Curry said. “We know this is just another regular-season game, but there was some hype around it. Every time we have an opportunity to prove who we are and take another step in the journey, we’re ready for it. It wasn’t always that way. This core has been together for a while and understands how to mentally prepare for nights like this.”……(Continue Reading: Gregg Popovich: Warriors’ slaughter of Spurs was ‘like men and boys’ | The Guardian)

+ Warriors win the first round of 2015-16 duel with Spurs

In a highly anticipated matchup, Stephen Curry (37 points) and the Warriors coasted by the Spurs, 120-90, in what was the first matchup in NBA history between two teams with winning percentages of .830 or higher (minimum 40 games played for each team). Golden State’s 30-point victory soundly ended the Spurs’ 13-game winning streak. That’s the third largest margin of victory against an opponent with a winning streak of at least 13 games entering the matchup. The Knicks defeated the Mavs, 128-94, in March 2010, ending a 13-game streak, and the Magic routed the Rockets, 114-82, in March 1991, stopping a Houston winning streak at 13.

+ Cousins with another huge game

DeMarcus Cousins scored 56 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the Kings’ double-overtime loss to the Hornets on Monday. Cousins, who totaled 48 points and 13 rebounds in his last game on January 23, is the fourth player with at least 100 points and 25 rebounds in consecutive games over the last 40 years. Michael Jordan did so in March 1990 (118 points and 30 rebounds; the first of the two games was his 69-point performance against the Cavaliers), David Robinson in April 1994 (100 points and 30 rebounds; he scored 71 points in the second of the two games), and Antawn Jamison accomplished this feat in December 2000 as a member of the Warriors (102 points and 27 rebounds).

Cousins’ 104 points over his last two games are the most for any player in Kings history; the previous high was 92 points by Oscar Robertson in February 1965 (when the franchise was known as the Cincinnati Royals). The last player with 100 points over a two-game span wasKobe Bryant in March 2007, netting 110 points.

+ A rare 50-point and 20-assist pairing

As though DeMarcus Cousins‘ 56-point performance was not enough, his Kings teammate Rajon Rondo dished out 20 assists in Sacramento’s overtime loss to the Hornets. It’s just the fourth game in NBA history in which one player scored at least 50 points and his teammate had at least 20 assists. The first such game was on March 2, 1962, in Wilt Chamberlain‘s 100-point game for the Warriors versus the Knicks; his teammate Guy Rodgers had 20 assists. And just under a year later, Chamberlain and Rodgers were at it again; Chamberlain scored 54 points and Rodgers totaled 20 assists for the Warriors against the Royals on March 1, 1963. The third instance was on February 10, 1998, when the Wizards’ Tracy Murray (50 points) and Rod Strickland (20 assists) did so versus the Warriors. In all three of those prior instances, the 50-point/20-assist team won the game.

+ A first for three young players

Karl-Anthony Towns scored 26 points, Zach LaVine added 21 points, and Andrew Wiggins had 20 of his own in the Timberwolves’ loss to the Cavaliers on Monday night. Towns, LaVine, and Wiggins, all 20 years old, are the first trio of teammates under 21 years old to put up at least 20 points in the same game in NBA history. Only one other trio did so at 21 years or younger: Kevin Durant (21 years old), Russell Westbrook (21), and James Harden (20) for the Thunder against the Wizards on November 20, 2009.

Towns also grabbed 11 rebounds, becoming the first rookie with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in a game against LeBron James.


1.

Wait A Second…

MLBPipeline.com will unveil its 2016 Top 100 Prospects list on Friday on MLB.com. The Top 50 will be revealed during a one-hour show on MLB Network at 9 p.m. ET. Leading up to the release, we look at baseball’s Top 10 prospects at each position. There has been quite a bit of turnover from last year to the 2016 edition of the Top 10 second-base prospects, with six new names joining the list, thanks to two graduations and four who dropped off the list. Scouting reports, grades, stats and video on Prospect Watch……(Continue Reading: Prospect Watch: Top 10 second basemen for 2016 | MLB.com)


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2.

Helping The Homeless…

With the Mets bringing back Yoenis Cespedes, most of baseball’s big-name free agents are off the board.

That doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare, however. There are many players left who could help plenty of teams.

Still, finding a spot at this point in the game of musical chairs is a challenge. Many clubs have filled their vacancies and/or reached their budgetary limits.

Pitchers and catchers are now less than a month from reporting, which means time is running out for the stragglers to sign before their unemployment lags into Spring Training. With that in mind, let’s spend other people’s money and see if we can find a home for 10 of the top players remaining on the market……(Continue Reading: Let’s play matchmaker for MLB players still unsigned.)


3.

Where There’s A Will There’s An Elway…

If Peyton Manning soon has the option to pull a John Elway and end a Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacking career in the glorious aftermath of a Super Bowl triumph, it will be because Elway provided him with a team capable of making it happen.

But few people in the room deserved more credit than the quarterback already enshrined in Canton who…...(Continue Reading: John Elway has put Peyton Manning in position to follow in his footsteps – The Washington Post)


4.

Get Over Yourself…

Seattle fans are still upset about something the Carolina Panthers QB did to the 12th man flag. Nevermind the crouch-grabber on your own team Seattle Fan.  Cam Newton has long moved on from thinking about the Seattle Seahawks, the team his Carolina Panthers beat two playoff rounds ago before beating the Arizona Cardinals last weekend to reach the Super Bowl.

Angry Seahawks fans have not forgot about Cam, though. #Stalker #StayClassy

Continue Reading: Bitter Seahawks fan starts petition to ban Cam Newton from CenturyLink | FOX Sports


5.

A Look Back…

Even though the Bears were 10-point favorites, the New England Patriots approached Super Bowl XX in New Orleans with confidence.

“We’ve been underdogs all year,” cornerback Raymond Clayborn said a few days before the game. “I accept it. We’ll go out and beat the Bears just like we beat everybody else. Do football players pay attention to the spread? We notice it. But we have confidence in ourselves.”……(Continue Reading: Pats thought they’d win Super Bowl XX)


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6.

#FanDuel Ultimate Value Lineup

Giving you the Perfect Lineup is easy and we tweet it, post it on Facebook and create an entire post about it in our RESULTS, so……What about if you had the greatest value lineup of all time?  A Lineup that every player chosen had low ownership, way less, and never cost you more than $6,500 – well my friends this is the #NBA Ultimate Value Lineup – culled directly from the numbers and our reports – Check Back Before 4:30p MST everyday and see who we like, and let us Teach You How To #Win!!!

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DiRTy Plays Tuesday #NBA – Teaching You How to #Win #DFS

January 26, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjectionsThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.


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SalaryBreakdownIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:00 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.