NBA DiRTy Plays Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win

January 25, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

Now that you have all the information at your fingertips, it’s time to build your lineups for today. I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Spencer Hawes. With Zeller expected to miss another week or so and the other injuries to the front line of the Hornets, look for Hawes to see more playing time and he shouldn’t see much of a spike in salary.
  • Norris Cole is our second value play for tonight. He looks to remain in the starting lineup for the Pelicans and with his added playing time he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game over his last 2 games.
  • Our 3rd value play for tonight is Trevor Ariza. With Dwight Howard expected to miss another game with his ankle injury, the beneficiary has been Ariza. He scored 41 fantasy points last night and should see over 30 minutes again tonight, with a favorable matchup.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

FanDuel_

  • Point Guard – 37.5/player (75 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 31.4/player (62.8 total points)
  • Small Forward – 28.6/player (57.2 total points)
  • Power Forward – 38.9/player (77.8 total points)
  • Center – 42.3/player (42.3 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 315.1 total points. With Center leading that production, keep in mind that Cousins is listed as a Center on FanDuel and he has posted two games over 60 in the last week. Shooting guard has been down almost 7 points per player in the last 7 days.

draftkings

  • Point Guard – 41.6/player (2.3 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 38.6/player (2.04 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 29.4/player (1.28 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 41.9/player (1.46 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 32.6/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)

As you should already know, the bonus plays for 3pt makes along with double-doubles and triple-doubles, the wing players should be more predominately selected in your DraftKings lineup process. Identifying players that have the best chance for hitting these thresholds, should be in your consideration moving forward. It should be noted that it is almost non-existent to have two C’s on your winning lineup.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

  • The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Steph Curry, James Harden & Trevor Ariza
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are Andre Drummond, DeMarcus Cousins, Chris Bosh
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Draymond Green, Rajon Rondo & James Harden

As you can see James Harden should be considered for one of your chalk plays tonight!

Point 4 – What Contest should I play:

  • The top contest to play on DraftKings tonight is the $3 sharpshooter with 100k going to first place. For winning consistency you should also play the $5 Massive Double-Up.
  • The top contest to play on FanDuel tonight is the $5K Mon NBA Assist #2 (Single Entry) as this contest has had the lowest average winning score on Monday night’s this season at only 294.6 fantasy points needed to win this contest.

In this section, we will identify the contest that has the lowest score to win combined with opportunity for you to make the big bucks each day. We will also hedge this contest with another option if the contest is a main contest.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry for tonight. He should be looking to make a statement against the Spurs tonight but at home Curry has been lights out this season, going for over 50 in all but 2 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable for DraftKings is Karl Anthony-Towns. He has been highly productive over the past 10 games and should eclipse 35 fantasy points again tonight. For FanDuel we have Jrue Holiday as he leads the group off the bench for the Pelicans.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper for is Dennis Schroeder. Crazy to think this but he has outplayed Teague this season and in fact has been averaging a bit more time on the court because of it. Look for at least 28 fantasy points out of him again tonight with the Hawks, playing the Nuggets awful defense tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

DK_LineupAnalyzer

 

As you can see we are going with Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins for tonight’s chalk plays as they have the highest projection per point with favorable matchups. David West is expected to see more playing time with Duncan missing tonight. Another key player for tonight should be Marc Gasol. Look for him to score over 40 fantasy points again tonight. Marcus Smart and Evan Turner have a strong matchup with one of the top 3 projected over/under games tonight. That means tons of scoring and Smart has averaged 30 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games. So his uptick is pointing in the right direction. Another item of note is the team’s max score for the current season. This is simply taking the highest value that a player has scored in a single game this season and then summing that for the team. This proves to be the ceiling for this team and if it is ever under 400, then you should reconsider your options.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerWith Towns projected to be the 2nd best Center tonight to Cousins on FanDuel, look for him to widely taken or for most to look for value here and go with Hawes tonight. At PG we have Walker and Lin but it should be noted that John Wall should have a huge night at PG as well so if you wanted to insert him instead of Walker and go cheaper for Towns, that is a strong consideration. At SG, Butler is the solid play with him having more value over Harden but either is a great option combined with Avery Bradley who is trending in the right direction of late. We have our value play of Ariza and Thompson combined with Bosh as our top projected PF tonight, this lineup has been averaging just over 286 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games and is a great consideration for play tonight.

 


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