NBA DiRTy Plays Monday 5pt Play – Teaching You How to #Win

January 25, 2016

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DiRTy Plays – Monday 5 Point Play

Now that you have all the information at your fingertips, it’s time to build your lineups for today. I will walk you through 5 key points and end with The DiRT Canon top lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings, along with the lineup analysis for you to consider tonight!

Point 1 – Value Plays:

  • The top overall value play for tonight is Spencer Hawes. With Zeller expected to miss another week or so and the other injuries to the front line of the Hornets, look for Hawes to see more playing time and he shouldn’t see much of a spike in salary.
  • Norris Cole is our second value play for tonight. He looks to remain in the starting lineup for the Pelicans and with his added playing time he has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game over his last 2 games.
  • Our 3rd value play for tonight is Trevor Ariza. With Dwight Howard expected to miss another game with his ankle injury, the beneficiary has been Ariza. He scored 41 fantasy points last night and should see over 30 minutes again tonight, with a favorable matchup.

Point 2 – Positional Breakdown:

Below is the average fantasy points per position for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on the minimum winning score for each site. This should give you an order to your lineup selection process.

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  • Point Guard – 37.5/player (75 total points)
  • Shooting Guard – 31.4/player (62.8 total points)
  • Small Forward – 28.6/player (57.2 total points)
  • Power Forward – 38.9/player (77.8 total points)
  • Center – 42.3/player (42.3 total points)

The average winning score over the past 7 days has been 315.1 total points. With Center leading that production, keep in mind that Cousins is listed as a Center on FanDuel and he has posted two games over 60 in the last week. Shooting guard has been down almost 7 points per player in the last 7 days.

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  • Point Guard – 41.6/player (2.3 PG’s per winning lineup)
  • Shooting Guard – 38.6/player (2.04 SG’s per winning lineup)
  • Small Forward – 29.4/player (1.28 SF’s per winning lineup)
  • Power Forward – 41.9/player (1.46 PF’s per winning lineup)
  • Center – 32.6/player (1.01 C’s per winning lineup)

As you should already know, the bonus plays for 3pt makes along with double-doubles and triple-doubles, the wing players should be more predominately selected in your DraftKings lineup process. Identifying players that have the best chance for hitting these thresholds, should be in your consideration moving forward. It should be noted that it is almost non-existent to have two C’s on your winning lineup.

Point 3 – Big Play Potential:

  • The top 3 players in terms of projected 3pt’s made tonight are Steph Curry, James Harden & Trevor Ariza
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected double-doubles are Andre Drummond, DeMarcus Cousins, Chris Bosh
  • The top 3 players in terms of projected triple-double are Draymond Green, Rajon Rondo & James Harden

As you can see James Harden should be considered for one of your chalk plays tonight!

Point 4 – What Contest should I play:

  • The top contest to play on DraftKings tonight is the $3 sharpshooter with 100k going to first place. For winning consistency you should also play the $5 Massive Double-Up.
  • The top contest to play on FanDuel tonight is the $5K Mon NBA Assist #2 (Single Entry) as this contest has had the lowest average winning score on Monday night’s this season at only 294.6 fantasy points needed to win this contest.

In this section, we will identify the contest that has the lowest score to win combined with opportunity for you to make the big bucks each day. We will also hedge this contest with another option if the contest is a main contest.

Point 5 – Absolutes:

  • The top overall #AbsoluteMustHave is Steph Curry for tonight. He should be looking to make a statement against the Spurs tonight but at home Curry has been lights out this season, going for over 50 in all but 2 games.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteNotable for DraftKings is Karl Anthony-Towns. He has been highly productive over the past 10 games and should eclipse 35 fantasy points again tonight. For FanDuel we have Jrue Holiday as he leads the group off the bench for the Pelicans.
  • The top overall #AbsoluteSleeper for is Dennis Schroeder. Crazy to think this but he has outplayed Teague this season and in fact has been averaging a bit more time on the court because of it. Look for at least 28 fantasy points out of him again tonight with the Hawks, playing the Nuggets awful defense tonight.

DraftKings Lineup Consideration

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As you can see we are going with Isaiah Thomas and DeMarcus Cousins for tonight’s chalk plays as they have the highest projection per point with favorable matchups. David West is expected to see more playing time with Duncan missing tonight. Another key player for tonight should be Marc Gasol. Look for him to score over 40 fantasy points again tonight. Marcus Smart and Evan Turner have a strong matchup with one of the top 3 projected over/under games tonight. That means tons of scoring and Smart has averaged 30 fantasy points per game over his last 5 games. So his uptick is pointing in the right direction. Another item of note is the team’s max score for the current season. This is simply taking the highest value that a player has scored in a single game this season and then summing that for the team. This proves to be the ceiling for this team and if it is ever under 400, then you should reconsider your options.

FanDuel Lineup Consideration

FD_LineupAnalyzerWith Towns projected to be the 2nd best Center tonight to Cousins on FanDuel, look for him to widely taken or for most to look for value here and go with Hawes tonight. At PG we have Walker and Lin but it should be noted that John Wall should have a huge night at PG as well so if you wanted to insert him instead of Walker and go cheaper for Towns, that is a strong consideration. At SG, Butler is the solid play with him having more value over Harden but either is a great option combined with Avery Bradley who is trending in the right direction of late. We have our value play of Ariza and Thompson combined with Bosh as our top projected PF tonight, this lineup has been averaging just over 286 fantasy points per game over their last 5 games and is a great consideration for play tonight.

 


If you would like for us to analyze your lineup, just contact us here or DM us on Facebook or Twitter.

 

Your #NFL Weekend Update + #Superbowl50 Forecast

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Daniels helps Denver punch ticket to Super Bowl 50

In the 17th and quite possibly the final edition of “Manning versus Brady,” it was Peyton Manning and the Broncos emerging victorious over Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Manning completed 17 passes for 176 yards and threw two touchdowns, both to tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels caught a 21-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter and a 12-yard TD pass in the second quarter, and those were his only two receptions of the game. Daniels tied the NFL postseason record for receptions in a game, all of which went for scores, last done by the Colts’ LaVon Brazill, also against the Patriots, in the 2013 playoffs.

Daniels is the fourth player to catch two touchdown passes from Peyton Manning in a playoff game. The previous three did so for the Colts against the Broncos: Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley in the 2003 playoffs and Reggie Wayne a year later.

Rare struggles for Patriots’ offense

Though a late touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski made the final score close, it was a day-long struggle for the Patriots on offense. Brady completed 27 of 56 passes, marking the first time in his professional career that he completed fewer than half of his passes in a postseason game. The 29 incomplete passes on Sunday were also a career-high for Brady in a postseason game.

The Patriots as a team converted two of 15 third-down attempts, good for just 13.3 percent. That’s New England’s lowest third-down percentage in a postseason game under Bill Belichick. The last time the Patriots converted a lower percentage of third downs in a postseason game was Super Bowl XX – New England lost to the Bears, 46-10, and were 1-for-10 (10%) on third downs.

Panthers pound Cardinals in NFC Championship

The Panthers are headed to Super Bowl 50 after overwhelming the Cardinals, 49-15, in the NFC Championship Game. The 49 points by Carolina are the second-most scored by a team that clinched a berth in the Super Bowl – the Bills scored 51 points in the AFC Championship Game in January 1991 against the Raiders. The Panthers, who forced seven turnovers in their blowout victory, are the second team in the last 20 postseasons to score at least 49 points and record seven or more takeaways in a postseason game. The other team to accomplish that feat in that span is the Jaguars, who racked up 62 points and forced seven turnovers in their divisional round victory over the Dolphins in January 2000.

nullSuperman Cam is clutch for Carolina

Cam Newton put up an MVP-like performance in the Panthers’ victory, throwing for 335 yards and two touchdowns while also running for a pair of scores. Newton is the fourth quarterback to total multiple touchdown passes and touchdown rushes in a single postseason game. Otto Graham had two such games for the Browns in back-to-back NFL Championships (1954 and 1955). The other two players to do so prior to Newton were Jay Cutler (Jan. 2011 against the Seahawks) and Colin Kaepernick (Jan. 2013 versus the Packers).

nullPalmer ties ignominious record in loss

Carson Palmer struggled against the mighty Panthers defense, throwing four interceptions and losing a pair of fumbles. Palmer’s six turnovers are tied for the most turnovers by a player in a postseason game. The last player to turn the ball over six times in a postseason game also did so in a Panthers-Cardinals matchup – Jake Delhomme had five interceptions and lost a fumble for Carolina in January 2009 against Arizona.

A first look at Super Bowl 50: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

LAS VEGAS – The Carolina Panthers will go to San Francisco favored by more than a field goal to win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

Oddsmakers didn’t even wait until the Panthers finished off the Arizona Cardinals to install them as favorites for the game against the Denver Broncos on Feb. 7. At most books, the Panthers were a 4-point pick, though the early line varied, with the over/under settling in at 45.

Five Quick Hits

* I wish there had been more time in between games on Sunday. The nail-biter in Denver ended minutes before kickoff in Carolina, and if the game had gone into overtime, that creates a conflict for viewers.

* Even if you DVR the NFC Championship Game while you watch the end of the AFC Championship Game, good luck avoiding the scroll at your bottom of your screen, telling you that it’s 17-0 Carolina before you’ve even switched over. There should be a hour, minimum, between the conference championship games. Probably one and a half. I’d rather watch a pre-game show for 15 minutes than miss the first drive of the NFC Championship Game.

* Anyone else catch Rob Gronkowski complaining to the back judge near the end of the early game? He mimed that the Broncos had basically attempted to murder him, on a play that rightfully drew no penalties. Hey Gronk, there’s another sport where crying and faking does draw penalties. It’s called soccer. Either sign with the New England Revolution, or grow up.

* Cam Newton is an all-pro QB and league MVP, and he played great on Sunday. But I’ve never seen a quarterback so willing to throw a 4-yard pass on 3rd-and-10.

* Congratulations to this year’s finalists for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award: Anquan Boldin, Eli Manning, and Ben Watson. Boldin is the favorite. This is the second year in a row he’s been a finalist. Thomas Davis, who won last season, had also been a finalist for the second year in a row.

* Get an early look at the 2016 Super Bowl commercials.

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The Ghost of Christmas Future

Super Bowl 50: Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Santa Clara, California
February 7, 2015

For the third year in a row, the top seeds from both conferences will meet in the Super Bowl. But this result wasn’t as likely as that stat would imply. The hottest teams coming into the playoffs were the Chiefs (on a 10-game win streak), the Cardinals (who lost a 9-game streak with a half-hearted Week 17), and the Seahawks (whose last four wins came by a combined 139-32). The Panthers had a tough road to the big game, and the Broncos just didn’t look particularly intimidating at the end of the regular season.

This is the first Super Bowl for both head coaches, though both have been to Super Bowls in other capacities. The Broncos’ Gary Kubiak becomes the seventh head coach to make a Super Bowl in his first year with the team, joining Don McCafferty, Red Miller, George Seifert, Bill Callahan, Jon Gruden, and Jim Caldwell. Additionally, Peyton Manning will become the oldest QB to start a Super Bowl, breaking the record held by his employer, John Elway.

CAROLINA ON OFFENSE

Denver has a great defense, but this is a bad matchup. The Broncos thrive on pressure, but Cam Newton’s running ability means he can evade pass rushers, and he’ll run through openings if you leave them. The Broncos will get some sacks, but their pressure won’t have the same effect it did against the Patriots. Denver’s pass defense is better than its rush defense, and Carolina is one of the most balanced offenses in the league, with a good ground game. New England prefers to throw, which played to Denver’s strength, but if Mike Shula is smart, I’d expect the Panthers to run about 50% of the time, more if they get a big lead. I’d also look for some sort of trick play to break things open.

The Broncos need to contain the rush, while preventing big plays downfield: make Newton throw short and intermediate passes, string together long drives. He’s capable of that, but the Broncos can’t get run over on the ground, or killed on sudden, momentum-generating big-play strikes. The Broncos have won with their defense all year, and they’ll need a low-scoring game if they’re going to win, so giving up a 50-yard TD would be devastating. Force the Panthers to work the ball down the field, preferably through the air, and hope you can force a couple of turnovers.

DENVER ON OFFENSE

This still seems weird to say about a Peyton Manning offense, but the Broncos are best when their offense is smart and conservative, with an emphasis on ball control. You expect to see what the team has shown its last few games. They’ll stick with the run, mostly grinding out short gains to keep the defense honest, and probably break a long one at some point. Manning has to take a few shots downfield, but his role is more to find the right plays and pick up first downs on 3rd-and-6. The priority is avoiding turnovers. The Broncos aren’t going to win a shootout, and they’re not expecting to win with explosive offense; they want big plays from their defense.

Carolina’s priority is probably to prevent Denver from establishing its run game and getting into a rhythm. Don’t make mistakes, and force Manning to win with his arm. The Panthers are effective ballhawks, as we saw in the NFC Championship Game, but they probably don’t need to force turnovers as long as they’re solid throughout the game. They need to be creative enough that Manning doesn’t pick them apart with his calls at the line, but they don’t need to be aggressive, exactly. Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman are terrific players, but Carolina’s most important defender in this game might be Kawann Short. Manning can’t overcome a good interior pass rush.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This might be a small advantage for Denver, which has a slightly better kicker, slightly better punter, and a more consistent return game. For the Broncos to win, they’ll probably need an edge from special teams: a big return or a blocked kick or something.

THE FORECAST

The three best teams in the NFL this year were all in the NFC: the Panthers, Cardinals, and Seahawks. The Panthers have already beaten the other two, pretty handily, and they’re 4-point favorites to win Super Bowl 50. Denver has a great defense, though, and you should never underestimate great defensive teams in a championship. The Broncos were in the Super Bowl two years ago, so they have Super Bowl experience, which the Panthers do not – not that it matters a damn. And it’s widely assumed that this will be Manning’s last game. I hate to imply that players don’t always perform at their peak, especially in a game of this magnitude, but sometimes you see a little more when emotions are running high. Who’s to say the Broncos don’t find something extra to help the Sheriff ride off into the sunset?

All the intangibles point in Denver’s direction. But the Panthers are a better team. They have a good defense, too, as their seven takeaways against Arizona would attest, and they have an offense that scores more points. Their ground game plays away from Denver’s strengths, and interior defensive pressure could radically disrupt Manning’s gameplan.

Source: Sports Central NFL – Super Bowl 50 Preview

NBA DiRTy Plays Monday – Teaching You How to #Win

January 25, 2016

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Absolute Player Breakdown


AbsolutesThe DiRT Canon Absolute Player Breakdown is a compilation of information that utilized a custom segmentation of salary for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The three categories that are used for analysis purposes are #AbsoluteMustHave, #AbsoluteNotable & #AbsoluteSleeper. These categories use the following salary ranges:

  • $7,000 & Above = MustHave
  • $5,200 – $6,900 = Notable
  • Under $5,200 = Sleeper

Players that are considered to be MustHave’s that top this list are the equivalent of Chalk plays for today’s contests. We breakdown these items for each position knowing that you won’t be able to take all of these players but this will give you the best chance to ensure you have selected from the projected top players for today. As we move into the Notable category, now this is where you separate from cashing and from losing. The need for at least 3 players in this category means that you have to ensure you take the guys that typically average between 25 fantasy points per game and 33 fantasy points per game, that have the highest chance of going for 40 points or more tonight. The sleeper category is where you now look to separate from the bottom of the cash pile to the top of the cash pile. For daily NBA contests, this usually means finding the guy(s) who have a higher point per minute than the average and are expected to play more minutes, either because of injury to other players or their average minutes played per game is trending up.

To download today’s DraftKings Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.

To download today’s FanDuel Absolute Player Breakdown report click here.


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Projection-2-Spend Breakdown


Proj2SpendThe next set of information that should be reviewed are the value plays for today’s games. Most fantasy sports information sites have their own value system, which takes their projection and divides that by the assigned salary. Here at The DiRT Canon, we go above and beyond standard metrics that really don’t give you much information and instead we look to provide a more in-depth analysis of value. In processing the results of thousands of contests at all levels of entry fees, The DiRT Canon, has been able to identify the minimum winning score on average, weighting several factors such as number of games played, overall rank of teams playing, Vegas odds, projected over-under scores and much more in order to forecast the needed score to win tonight. This will be further provided in future releases to our customers and to sign up just click here and enter Promo code WIN.

Now that we have the projected score needed to win, we can now look at the assigned salary in order to determine the Needed Points, that each player will need to achieve in order to be worth the assigned salary for each daily fantasy site. Then we take our Overall DiRT Canon projection and subtract that value from the Needed Points in order to determine if that player has value or not. When you are able to identify players that have high average fantasy points per game and are of value for today’s games, these are the strongest plays you can find. When you have lower salaried players with high variances in this area, these are also players that should be considered in building your lineup.

To download a copy of today’s DraftKings Projection-2-Spend report click here.

To download a copy of today’s FanDuel Projection-2-Spend report click here.


Daily Projections


DailyProjectionsThis analysis is as straight forward as it gets from us. This is our daily projection for players that are eligible for contests tonight. This information is broken down by position so you are able to quickly identify the players that have the highest projection. The one factor that The DiRT Canon brings to the table that no one else considers is the fact that we have a projection that is based on the Last 5 games, Last 10 games, Full Season and the we have a custom Overall Projection. At a glance this will give you a trending perspective for each player that visually you are able to determine who you should select.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Daily Projection report click here.


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SalaryBreakdownIn this section, we provide the ability to find players, regardless of position at a specific salary range. This ultimately allows for you to make some of your final lineup selections as you look to compare the projection and expected performance of players within a certain set of salary ranges. Have only $5,500 dollars left, you can find the best guy at that salary. Can’t be more simple than that as we include the projections and value for these players to make this selection process as easy as possible.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

To download a copy of today’s Salary Breakdown report click here.

Don’t forget to check back for our 5 Point Play @ 6:30 EST, our daily NBA DFS insight, as you set your lineups prior to the first tip off tonight.