Teaching You How to #Win – Saturday Wildcard Lineups and Weather



In reviewing the weather one more time before we kickoff the Wildcard weekend, obviously game one is in the dome so we are only looking at Cincinnati for tonight. It is expected to be in the upper 40’s for the game with a high of 49º and little to no wind. There is expected to be some drizzle throughout but for the most part weather is not going to be a factor in this one. For more information just come here.

Lineup Considerations

Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top 3 lineups for week both All Games & Saturday Only on Draftkings:

Experts Picks

Alex Smith has been a highly productive QB in the playoffs going for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Can you afford to not take Brown when it is a Saturday Only contest? I don’t think so but overall, I have a different opinion. There really is no value in taking Brown this weekend due to the highest price of the season. So if you take him, in order for him to be worth his cost, his Needed Points (our custom metric at The DiRT Canon is 30.34 when considering that the 4 games contest average for the season in order to cash was 158 points. Combine that with the fact that Brown hasn’t even scored that many points total against Cincy all season, that is a risk play.

For Saturday only, you have to take him because what other WR’s have an upside in the 30’s. It’s all about Brown, Green and Hopkins. Pick the right two with Maclin and you can afford the rest of the guys but if you want all three top guys, here is what you end up with.

For Saturday only (TOP)  All Games (Bottom) here is the top lineup:







 FanDuel lineups for the week below:

Logan Cartwright’s Expert Picks


While the value play at Defense is certainly Washington, Seattle is the top projected team this weekend so if you can afford them, they shouldn’t disappoint you this weekend. WR Rankings are Brown, Hopkins, Baldwin but AJ has owned the Steelers this season, scoring over 28 fantasy points in each contest on DraftKings and 17.8 or higher on FanDuel. We project on FanDuel only needing to score 119.68 this weekend so chalk plays are going to get you the necessary points to win. Going cheap on RB this weekend is the likely play with Lynch and DeLo out, the only top RB is Peterson and he is playing the #1 Rush defense in terms of fantasy points given up this season to the RB1 position.

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#NFL #WildCardWeekend Trends


NFL Wild Card Weekend – Situational Trends

All-time in the Wild Card round home underdogs are 12-8 straight-up and 13-7 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Texans (+3) vs. Chiefs, Bengals (+3) vs. Steelers and Vikings (+5) vs. Seahawks.

The last ten road favorites in the playoffs have gone 6-4 straight-up and 5-4-1 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-3) at Texans, Steelers (-3) at Bengals, Seahawks (-5) at Vikings.

All-time in the Wild Card round, home favorites are 71-39 straight-up and 56-53-1 against-the-spread.

  • Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (-1) vs. Packers.

The other two times there were three home underdogs on Wild Card Weekend were 1999-00 and 2008-09. Those teams combined to go 4-2 straight-up and against-the-spread.

NFL Trends – Wild Card Weekend
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)


CIN +3 vs. PIT The Bengals have failed to cover in seven straight playoff games.
Cincinnati is 0-7 straight-up and 1-6 against-the-spread all-time as underdogs in the postseason.
Cincy last won a playoff game in the 1990-91 season.
All-time, the Bengals are 1-7 straight-up and 1-7 against-the-spread in the Wild Card round.
GB +1 @ WAS The Packers are 3-7 straight-up and 5-4-1 against-the-spread in their last ten playoff games as underdogs.
Aaron Rodgers is 6-5 straight-up and against-the-spread in the postseason.
Rodgers and the Packers haven’t won on the road in the playoffs since their Super Bowl run in 2010-11 as a Wild Card team.
All-time, Green Bay is 2-7 straight-up and 3-6 against-the-spread vs. the NFC East in the playoffs.
HOU +3 vs. KC Houston is 3-1 against-the-spread (2-2 straight-up) all-time in the postseason.
The Texans are undefeated (2-0) all-time in the playoffs at home.
Houston is 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread during the Wild Card round.
The Texans are 2-8 straight-up and 4-5-1 against-the-spread in their last ten games as home underdogs.
KC -3 @ HOU Yikes! The Chiefs are 3-12 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the playoffs.
Kansas City is 2-7 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the Wild Card round.
KC is 0-4 against-the-spread (2-2 straight-up) as a favorite in the postseason.
The Chiefs haven’t won a road playoff game since the 1993-94 season at Houston Oilers (28-20).
MIN +5 vs. SEA The Vikings are 6-4 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time at home in the playoffs.
Minnesota has only been a home dog in the postseason once, they lost 26-14 to the Eagles in 2009 and failed to cover.
The Vikings are 4-6 straight-up and against-the-spread in their last ten Wild Card games.
Adrian Peterson has averaged less than four yards/carry and is 1-3 straight-up (2-2 against-the-spread) in his playoff career.
PIT -3 @ CIN All-time, the Steelers as road favorites in the playoffs are 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against-the-spread.
All-time, Pittsburgh is 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against-the-spread vs. divisional opponents in the postseason.
Ben Roethlisberger is 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread in his playoff career.
Roethlisberger has been even better as a favorite going 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 against-the-spread.
SEA -5 @ MIN All-time, the Seahawks are 3-10 straight-up and 6-7 against-the-spread on the road in the postseason.
Russell Wilson is 6-2 straight-up and 5-2-1 against-the-spread in his playoff career.
Wilson has never lost a postseason game as a favorite (5-0 straight-up) and is 3-1-1 against-the-spread in those games.
Seattle has won four straight Wild Card games and went 3-1 against-the-spread in those contests.
WAS -1 vs. GB All-time, Washington is 18-9 straight-up and 19-8 against-the-spread in the playoffs.
However, since the team’s last Super Bowl (1991-92), Washington is 3-5 straight-up in the postseason (5-3 ATS).
Washington has won six straight (6-0 ATS) as home favorites in the playoffs.
Washington is 6-2 straight-up and against-the-spread all-time in the Wild Card round