Teaching You How to #Win – NFL Wildcard Sunday Fantasy Breakdown

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NFC_WildcardSunday football traditions are coming to a close as this weekend, for the first time that I can recall, we will only have NFC teams playing on Sunday. Usually the NFL will split the weekend up but in this case, they have both NFC teams playing on Sunday and the only reason I can think of is because both Green Bay and Minnesota are in the playoffs and they both played Sunday night. Other than that, I have no idea but that said, we will break these matchups down for you in preparation for finalizing your lineups tomorrow morning for the “All Games” contests. Starting next week we will be kicking back off our NBA Daily DiRTy Plays with full analysis each day so look for that as well. So let’s get it on!


Seattle vs Minnesota

Our third contest of the Wildcard weekend brings yet another rematch from earlier in the season. In week 13 these teams met in Minnesota and the Seahawks came to town and flat out whipped the Vikings that day. Wilson threw for 5TD’s in that game and Adrian Peterson was only 6.4 fantasy points that day, his second lowest of the season. It was after this game that the public realized that the Seahawks were coming on at the end of the season and this was the third consecutive game of at least 3 TD’s for Wilson. That trend finished the season with 24 TD’s and 1 Int for Wilson. That all said, the key to this game will be the wind. While it is expected to only be 2º and feels like -9º, there isn’t expected to be any wind gusts to deal with. In fact, the sun is supposed to shine in this one so the advantage in that case will also be in favor of Seattle. All that really means is Doug Baldwin should be a lineup consideration. Now let’s get to the stats:

  • Vegas Over/Under – 39.5 (Seattle 22 – Minnesota 17)
  • DC*3PO – Projects Seattle to win this game 25 – 23 from an expected points scored perspective
  • Minnesota – Only projected to have a total of 332 yards of offense, this is the least amount among all of the Wildcard teams
  • Projected Rushing Yards – When you have Lynch and Peterson expected to play and play big roles, neither is projected to get 100 yards in this game as both defenses are tough in terms of fantasy points points given up to the RB1.

From a team perspective, a lot of people will be on the Seattle Defense and while that could pan out, the Seahawks, outside of the last game against the Cardinals, didn’t generate turnovers this year. Even in the blowout in their last game against the Vikings, they only generated 10 fantasy points. The player that is most likely to score the most points in this contest is Doug Baldwin and then it drops all the way down to the kickers. So for FanDuel, take your pick here and this will be your key to success. Let’s breakdown some individual players now:

  • Russell Wilson – Averaged 21.0 points per game on the road this season and scored 34.1 in their previous matchup, his second highest output of the season.
  • Doug Baldwin – Averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game on the road and scored 26.4 points against the Vikings last time around
  • Adrian Peterson – Only averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game at home, which is 3 points less than he did on the road, along with only 6.4 points last time around.
  • Kyle Rudolph – Averaged 9.8 points per game at home but only produced 4.3 against the Seahawks last time.

fanduelAll in all, on paper Seattle should win this game pretty easily, they will shut down the run and force Bridgewater to beat them and without any weapons to do so, stay away from every Viking player in daily fantasy this week. On the Seahawks, if you can afford Russell Wilson, that is a strong consideration as we have him ranked #1 overall from a projection standpoint this weekend. Take Doug Baldwin, nuff said! Lynch is an interesting play but risky considering you don’t know what you might get from him coming off of injury.


Green Bay vs Washington

Of all the games that are being played this weekend, the only one that somewhat shapes up to be an offensive game is Washington taking on the Packers. Ordinarily that would mean that Aaron Rodgers is the guy you should be looking at but not this season. This season Kirk Cousins has outscored Aaron Rodgers in terms of fantasy points in each of the last 4 weeks and 6 of the last 8 weeks of the season. The Packers haven’t been able to really do anything since the Broncos put a beat down on them back in week 8, let me show you the numbers on this one:

  • Aaron Rodgers – Averages only 18.8 fantasy points per game on the road, this is -3.5 points per game compared to his home average. Rodgers also hasn’t cracked the 20 point mark since his Hail Mary came true against the Lions 5 games ago and he didn’t crack 15 fantasy points since week 14.
  • Randall Cobb – He as the second leading fantasy point getter for the Packers this season but he only averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game on the road which is -3.9 points from his home average.
  • Eddie Lacy – He averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game on the road this season which is also in the negative from his home average at -1.9.
  • James Starks – While he is probably the only Packer worth taking this Sunday, he only averaged 7.0 fantasy points on the road which is -7.5 fantasy points from his home average. His salary on DraftKings of $3,600 is the value that you need to get the other guys out there this week. Face it, Lacy needs to drop the weight and gain some agility back.
  • Green Bay Defense – Only averages 7.0 fantasy points per game on the road (the least of the playoff teams) and they too are -1.0 from their home average.

If you haven’t caught the trend yet, let me make it as clear as I can….every single player for Green Bay plays worse on the road and not by tenths of a point here or there at least 1 point and up to 7 points, that means between 10 and 70 yards to put that into perspective….again every player, including their QB. Want some more, Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 14 times in the past 2 weeks and the Washington defense has averaged 5 sacks per game over the past 3 weeks. This means Rodgers goes down and goes down often, no one will get open and while the Pack might score, Starks is going to provide that scoring this week. Now you combine that with these Washington stats:

  • Kirk Cousins – Home average is 23.4 fantasy points per game which is 5.7 points better than being on the road. His last 4 games were 19.04, 35.2, 38.86 & 25.3. Keep in mind the 19.04 was only a half last week, with nothing to play for, look for Cousins to light up the Packers. This should be your top consideration at QB this weekend.
  • Alfred Morris – He is expected to get the start and take the bulk of the carries but who really knows at this point. It appears to be more of a feel during each game but since we are proving you the info, Morris, has averaged a mere 8.5 fantasy points per game at home but that is 4.1 points better than on the road.
  • Jordan Reed – He is the only player for Washington that doesn’t have a better average at home versus away but that said it is close and he averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game at home this season with at least 27 points in the last 3 meaningful games he played in this season. Another player that will be highly owned but is really a #MustHave
  • DeSean Jackson – He finished the season averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game at home which was 6.4 points better than on the road. Since coming back from injury his only dud was against the Bears and the Packers do get burned deep. Look for a nice value play at only $4,500 and huge big play potential.

So all of the players for Washington play above their average by far at home and all the Packers play well below their average on the road, Washington will win this game. For fantasy, taking all four of these Washington players should be a strong consideration along with their defense and you will watch your team climb the leader board on Sunday afternoon and finish the weekend taking down the majority of money to be made!

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