Teaching You How to #Win – NFL Wildcard Saturday Fantasy Breakdown

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AFC_WildcardThe New Year has begun and the NFL playoffs are just about to get started. In daily fantasy this means that you only have 3 weeks left to finish off your season and so we wanted to change things up a bit and breakdown each matchup for you from a daily fantasy perspective. Today we will breakdown the Saturday matchups and on Friday we will breakdown the Sunday matchups. On Saturday morning, we will be publishing our final lineups for this weekends contest for all games as well as Saturday only. On Sunday morning we will provide our Sunday only lineup considerations and any roster changes that you should consider. Starting next week we will be kicking back off our NBA Daily DiRTy Plays with full analysis each day so look for that as well. So let’s get it on!


Kansas City vs Houston

How many people knew that on week 1 of the NFL season you were watching the first NFL Wildcard matchup as the Chiefs took on the Texans. You might not remember but in week 1 Alex Smith was the top fantasy QB per dollar spent in week 1 and was the top overall sleeper as he lit up the secondary of the Texans along with Travis Kelce. The two players combined for just over 50 fantasy points. Maclin was yet to really get involved in the offense and everyone was wondering what happened to the Texans defense. The other player that kicked off the season on a hot streak in this matchup was DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins went for over 30 fantasy points in that contest just as he did an additional 6 times throughout the regular season. What does that mean for this weekend, let’s breakdown the numbers and see if these fantasy studs from week 1 should be considered again this week.

  • Houston Defense – Has produced at least 12 fantasy points in 5 straight contests, including 22 in week 16 and 29 in week 17.
  • Jeremy Maclin – Has scored at least 12 points in 9 straight contests and over 15 in each of the last 4 games.
  • DeAndre Hopkins – Finished the season with 115 catches and over 1,500 yards while being in top 5 for targets in 13 of the 16 weeks he played this season. The Chiefs defense is also 23rd against the WR1 position this season.
  • Chiefs RB’s – The question here is, who is going to get the ball, whomever it is from week to week, one thing is true, they will get at least 75 yards and one TD.

Obviously weather has no impact here so let’s just compare the two QB’s for this contest.

  • Brian Hoyer – He only averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game at home this season, including 11.3 in week 1.
  • Alex Smith – He averaged 18.3 in road games this season, including 23.2 against the Texans in week 1

Vegas has this game with the over/under at 40 points with the Chiefs a road favorite at -3 as of today. This means that Vegas is saying the Chiefs will win this game 21.5 to 18.5. What that really means is three TD’s by the Chiefs and 1 TD for the Texans with some field goals mixed in. How will these points get scored. In reviewing our Odds page here, we show the following projections:

  • Kansas City wins 23 – 22
  • Both QB’s will pass for around 240 yards
  • Both teams will rush for about 118 yards give or take a yard

fanduelWhat do all of these stats mean for your daily fantasy lineup this weekend. The guys to consider in this game should be Maclin and Hopkins, beyond that, either QB could be a nice play for a cheap option but the chances of either of them going for over 30 fantasy points this Sunday is pretty unlikely. The defenses on both sides are really the strengths of these teams and so taking one of those defenses are the best option for you.

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Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

This Saturday night, we get to see the grudge match between the Bengals and the Steelers. Each team won at the other’s place this season and the Bengals are 2 – 13 over their last 15 home games against Pittsburgh. Combine that with the fact that the Bengals haven’t won a playoff game since the early 90’s and the last time these two met in a similar situation the Steelers torn the knee up of Carson Palmer and eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. While Palmer might get his revenge this season, that is because the Cardinals have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl this season but what does that mean for the Steelers. If you were to ask any analyst three weeks ago, who you got in the AFC, most would have said the Steelers simply because of the injuries to New England, Dalton had gone down against these Steelers and no other team that was going into the playoffs had a QB to be that concerned with. So now you have Big Ben getting a back door visit to the playoffs because the Jets can’t seem to beat the Bills and they will most likely play against McCarron this time around. McCarron played decently in the second half against these Steelers, after Dalton was knocked out with a broken thumb which included a long bomb (78 yard TD) to AJ Green but the Steelers still had a pick 6 and took care of the Bengals in that matchup. The one thing that most don’t know is that the Bengals are one of very few teams that have shut down the offense of the Steelers and so for those of you who have to play the Big Ben and Brown combo, here are some numbers to consider.

  • Ben Roethlisberger – Scored just 10.8 points against these Bengals in Cincy last time and 11.48 in their first contest this season.  That is an average of only 11.14 and the weather isn’t going to be any better this time around.
  • Antonio Brown – He had his 3rd worst performance of the season, scoring only 15.7 points against the Bengals in their last contest.
  • DeAngelo Williams – He was the lone bright spot aside from the defense against the Bengals this season scoring 15.0 points in their first contest and 23.1 in Cincinnati in December. The problem there is, will he play?
  • AJ Green – While having his worst statistical season of his career this year, that certainly wasn’t the case against the Steelers, putting up 31.8 points in their first contest and 28.2 in the game at home a few weeks back. He is an #AbsoluteNotable this weekend.

The weather as of today is expected to be a high of 48° with some light rain and another thing to note here is the fact that neither Bernard nor Jeremy Hill cracked 10 fantasy points in either game against the Steelers this season. In fact, not even Eifert was able to have much impact against Pittsburgh this year. All these stats are pointing to one thing and that is a Pittsburgh victory. DC*3PO shows a slight advantage to Pittsburgh as well with less than a yard of separation in terms of overall projected yardage.

The main guys to target in this matchup are going to be AJ Green and then DeAngelo Williams if he plays, if he doesn’t you almost have to ride with Todman simply for value and take your chances that Big Ben won’t be able to chuck it 60 times for 500 yards in this game.

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5 Things for an #NFL Thursday – #WildCardWeekend Edition

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1.

Several Thoughts on the Upcoming #WildCard Games:

Does it no longer matter to go to games anymore?  From your own perch, you can wolf down small animals, drink lascivious amounts of mead and never worry about ice being in a urine receptacle.  Sure you still might have the occasional boorish behavior of people nearby, but it’s your house. Evict-us!

Hopefully, these playoff games will not be the anti-climax to the season that was full of promise.  SO here’s a raised glass early in the week for this weekend – may your speculations be merry and fruitful – may your lineup bring you dollar-ed joy – and may you fleece that loudmouth lawyer from Houston again.  Have fun and enjoy some other thoughts that lead us up to the craziness that’ll exist in San Francisco for the NFL’s “golden” game – the big “L”.

2.

Your Weakest Link:

As we embark on a potentially, weird NFL postseason.  Bill Barnwell helps explain each teams’ Kryptonite.

The top seed in the AFC, Denver, doesn’t know — or at least won’t admit — the identity of its starting quarterback. The scariest team in each conference might be the No. 6 seed, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Perennial contenders such as the Patriots and Packers seem to be limping into the postseason, although that probably doesn’t matter much. It’s entirely possible that the four road teams could all be favored to win this weekend. Things already are bizarre.

That should lead to a postseason in which there’s no clear favorite. The Seahawks finished as the comfortable league leaders in DVOA, but they’ll need to win three road games to make it to the Super Bowl. There are six teams clumped in the second tier behind them, all with DVOA ratings between 21.3 percent and 27.9 percent above average. There doesn’t appear to be much separating the top contenders in this year’s bracket.

With that in mind, matchups become more important than they would be in a bracket in which there are larger gaps in team quality. A truly dominant team might be able to just steamroll the competition without really worrying about what the opposition does well. In the 2015 playoffs, styles will make for very compelling fights. It could be as much about whom you miss as it is whom you draw.

So let’s look at each team’s weaknesses to identify the potential opponent each club would prefer to avoid in this year’s postseason. There are still clear gaps between relative team quality, so you can argue that everybody would rather play the Texans and avoid the Cardinals. That’s not worth discussing. This is about finding matchups that would present more frustrating problems for a given team than win-loss records might indicate.

Source: A look at the biggest weakness for every team, and which playoff opponents could expose it – NFL

3.

Everybody’s Scoring:

The NFL made some key rule changes (extra points moved back) and new emphasis on old rules (interference and contact on receivers). The end result was the second-highest touchdown total in NFL history.

This season, NFL teams scored 1,318 total touchdowns (including defense and special teams), up from 1,293 a year ago, but still short of the record-setting 2013 season (1,338 total touchdowns).

Here is the year-by-year scoring in the NFL since the league expanded to 32 teams.

Source: CHART: Scoring in the NFL is on the rise – Business Insider

4.

33 Crazy Stats O’Year:

1. This is astounding: The Dallas Cowboys are 152-152 since Barry Switzer’s last season in 1997. Head coach Jason Garrett, who went 8-8 his first three years, skyrocketed past .500 last year with a 12-4 record. But this year’s 4-12 record puts him back at, you guessed it, .500. Super-symmetry. It’s not just an Arcade Fire song.

2. The top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2015, along with their average preseason fantasy football draft rank on ESPN:

1) Adrian Peterson, No. 3(USA TODAY Sports Images)
2) Doug Martin, No. 97
3) Todd Gurley, No. 60
4) Darren McFadden, No. 116
5) Chris Ivory, No. 64
6) Latavius Murray, No. 62
7) Devonta Freeman, No. 112
8)Jonathan Stewart, No. 51
9) Frank Gore, No. 48
10) DeAngelo Williams, No. 121

The average draft slot of the top-10 backs was 73.4. The lesson, as always, season-long-fantasy-football is lame.

3. Adrian Peterson became just the third player in his 30s to win the NFL’s rushing title since 1932. (Marion Motley did it in 1950 and, this might surprise, Curtis Martin won it at 31 in 2004. Curtis Martin was so underrated.)

4. Only seven players rushed for more than 1,000 yards this year. Just nine years ago, the 1,000-yard club included 23 runners and the lowest total in the past 15 years had been 13. That seven is the fewest number since 1991, when Emmitt Smith led the league with 1,563 yards and Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, Rodney Hampton, Earnest Byner, Gaston Green and Christian Okoye also hit the mark. (Oddly, that was the year Thomas won the MVP despite finishing third in rushing yards.) Peterson’s 1,485 was also the second-lowest winning total since ’90. Only LaDanian Tomlinson’s 1,474 yards in 2007 was lower…….

Continue Reading: 33 fascinating stats from the 2015 NFL regular season

5.

Clayton’s Path to the Big “L”:

The wild-card teams in the NFL playoffs are the true wild cards.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most dangerous quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. The Seattle Seahawks have the most dangerous team. The Kansas City Chiefs are the hottest team, with 10 wins in a row. The Green Bay Packers offer the passing of Aaron Rodgers.

Ten playoff wild cards have advanced to the Super Bowl, and six have gone all the way to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Since the 32-team realignment in 2002, three wild cards have won Super Bowls, so don’t immediately block the paths of this year’s entries to the Super Bowl because of three possible road games. The wild cards have chances because this postseason is wide-open for several reasons.

My colleague, Mike Sando, is ranking the playoff teams. I am going to evaluate the paths to the Super Bowl, which may offer some surprises. Quarterback injuries certainly play into the equation, as that creates situations in which inexperience factors in.

So here goes, the best paths to the Super Bowl, from clearest to foggiest:

1. New England Patriots: Even though the Broncos took away home-field advantage from the Patriots on Sunday, the Pats have the best path of any team to go back to the Super Bowl, because they have the best AFC quarterback standing, Tom Brady. Sure, Brady took some hits down the stretch and lost his final two games. It was strange seeing him play in the season finale, because Bill Belichick is usually in position to rest his starters before a bye week. Look at the quarterbacks in the AFC among other top teams: Peyton Manning has a plantar fascia injury and isn’t what he has been; and Andy Dalton is hoping to play in the Cincinnati playoff game, but he may be pressing it four weeks after breaking his right thumb. Beyond that, you have Alex Smith or Brian Hoyer under pressure on a big stage if one of them comes to Foxborough in the divisional round. The bye week will give the Patriots a chance to get Julian Edelman and Sebastian Vollmer back for the offense. Even as the second seed, the Pats have a lot going for them.

2. Carolina Panthers: The road to the Super Bowl goes through Charlotte. At the very least, the Panthers have a good chance to be in the championship game, and it would be at home. Their best path is to avoid playing the Seahawks in the divisional round. The Seahawks came into Charlotte three times in Russell Wilson’s first three years and won low-scoring games. Even though the Panthers won a high-scoring game against the Seahawks in Seattle this season, the Seahawks fear no team and have the experience and leadership to win on the road. But the bye week will allow Carolina’s offense to get healthy. Jonathan Stewart should be back running the football. What might make the Panthers vulnerable to defeat is age and injury in the secondary. Cornerback Charles Tillman reinjured his knee Sunday. Cortland Finnegan came out of retirement to play the slot. Safety Roman Harper is 33. That said, the Panthers were the only team in football to go 8-0 at home, and that means plenty for a team that knows how to win anywhere it plays.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Despite the embarrassing 36-6 loss to Seattle on Sunday, the Cardinals might be the most complete team in the playoffs — good on offense, defense and special teams. Coach Bruce Arians is using the loss as a teaching tool. “This was a valuable lesson today,” Arians said. “You could see it coming all week. Players, coaches reading press clippings.” The Cardinals, like most teams, are banged up, but they will be healthier given the week off, allowing players to rest and heal their bodies. Sunday’s loss may have let Cam Newton get the MVP vote over Carson Palmer, but Palmer will be extra motivated. He had his best year. This is his best team. He’s looking to win his first playoff game, and he needs only two wins to get to the Super Bowl.

4. Seattle Seahawks: With the way Russell Wilson is running the Seahawks’ offense, the team is never out of any game. Last week’s loss to the St. Louis Rams ended a 62-game streak in which the Seahawks held the lead at some point. Wilson has had only two games in which his team lost by more than seven points, and he has had the lead in each of those games. San Diego and Green Bay got late scores to win by more than seven. The Seahawks looked like a Super Bowl team Sunday, going into Arizona and winning by 30 points, even though they were missing their top two offensive linemen (Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy), halfback Marshawn Lynch and strong safety Kam Chancellor. Lynch is expected to return Monday. Wilson is on fire and the defense regained its swagger. With this team, it’s not as much about who they play, it’s that they could be a favorite in every instance.

5. Denver Broncos: Getting two home games and home-field advantage was huge, because there was no way the Broncos would have made the Super Bowl as a wild card or by going to New England. Still, this won’t be easy. Gary Kubiak has to choose between Manning and Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Osweiler faded down the stretch, opening the door for Manning to come off the bench and lead the Broncos to Sunday’s thrilling victory over San Diego. What you don’t know is whether Manning can hold out on his bad foot for two games. Wade Phillips’ defense keeps their hopes alive, but even with Manning, the offense has been average and might be at risk of turnovers if he can’t plant his feet.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers: This season reminds me so much of 2005, when the Steelers were the wild card, knocked out Carson Palmer’s knee in the first round of the playoffs and went to the Super Bowl, where they beat Seattle. Andy Dalton broke his thumb in the one-sided loss to Pittsburgh four weeks ago. If he plays against the Steelers, will his grip be good enough to get the offense into the range of the 27.8 points a game he averaged as a starter this season? With Roethlisberger in charge of the offense, the Steelers can score on anyone. The offense is good enough to go to Denver or New England and score. The Steelers are the most dangerous team in the AFC, even though they needed help to get into the playoffs.

7. Kansas City Chiefs: Ron Rivera is probably the coach of the year in the NFC. Andy Reid is the coach of the year in the AFC. The Chiefs allowed only 128 points over the final 10 games. Except for his back-to-back interceptions Sunday against Oakland, Alex Smith does a great job of protecting the ball. The path isn’t bad to start. They are favored to beat the Houston Texans. After that, it could be tough. Smith would go into the divisional round with a 2-2 playoff record, but it’s hard to think he’s good enough to win three playoff games — unless we see some of the best play of his career.

8. Cincinnati Bengals: I feel bad for the Bengals. This is their best overall team in more than two decades. Dalton has been so good this year, he should be in the top five in the MVP vote. I fear they could be one-and-done for the fifth straight year. Fans question Dalton’s ability to rise to the occasion, but this time health is the issue. Had Dalton not injured his thumb, the Bengals probably would have finished as the No. 1 seed and be at the top of this list. The roster is excellent, but we just don’t know what they’ll have at the most important position.

9. Green Bay Packers: This doesn’t look like a Super Bowl season for the Packers. In fact, they were so bad offensively down the stretch, they needed a Hail Mary in Detroit just to get into the playoffs. The problem is twofold. First, receivers can’t get separation from defenders: Between Week 6 and Week 16, the Packers averaged only 318.8 yards a game offensively, ranking 25th in the league. Through 16 weeks, Rodgers completed only 28 of his passes that went 20 yards in the air; he was at 50 last year. Teams play one safety deep against the slow Packers receivers and go at them with man coverage. The other problem is injuries have really taken a toll on the offensive line. Protection broke down so badly that Rodgers was sacked eight times last week against Arizona. It’s hard to believe, but the Packers’ path to the Super Bowl is weakened because of the offense.

10. Minnesota Vikings: The easiest thing to figure out this season was that the Vikings were going to be a playoff team. You put Adrian Peterson in the backfield with young quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who went 6-6 as a starter and scored 22 points a game as a rookie, and they were an easy playoff pick. But his recent play makes you wonder if Bridgewater is truly ready to take this team to the Super Bowl. Going into the Sunday night game against Green Bay, the Vikings have been 2-11 against .500 teams or better. They might be good enough to get one playoff win, but it’s a mystery beyond that.

11. Houston Texans: Congratulations on winning the AFC South. The Texans might be able to match the Chiefs for defense. Brian Hoyer might be able to have a good game against Alex Smith, but he’s not going to be able to win in Denver or New England. Can the defense play at an incredible level? And can Hoyer go beyond his previous level of play?

12. Washington Redskins: Jay Gruden found a quarterback by picking Kirk Cousins over Robert Griffin III. His hiring of Bill Callahan has been crucial to the rebuilding process of the offensive line. Everything is headed in the right direction, but winning the NFC East isn’t going to have anyone thinking Super Bowl just yet. No team faces a tougher path.

Source: Clayton: Ranking the clearest paths to the Super Bowl