Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 17

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Carolina at home against Tampa Bay – 11.5
  • Pittsburgh -11.5 at Cleveland
  • New England -11.5 at Miami

The three top favorite games all have impact into playoff positioning with two of these teams vying for home field throughout the playoffs with Carolina and New England. Both teams are playing below average teams that have nothing to play for other than they are divisional opponents so they certainly would like to throw a wrench in mix. As for Cleveland, Manziel pulled yet another idiotic move over the holiday weekend and now you just have to wonder, how did this kid even get into college? How much did his daddy have to pay Texas A&M for him to be able to play. I admit, even I thought he had a shot at being an electrifying playing in the NFL just like he was in college but look at his transgressions. So Austin Davis will most likely get the start and that bodes well for a Pittsburgh blowout. Unlike the Ravens who came to play last week and Big Ben did not, this one is for their season. Look for the Pittsburgh offense to roll the Browns and even the Steelers defense should be a consideration this week. For Carolina, it’s their defense and Cam Newton, you cannot rely on anyone else this weekend with Olsen and Stewart having some injury issues the past couple of weeks. In New England, Tom Brady could be owned by less than 10% of the field this weekend and he has owned Miami in his career. Not to mention the Dolphins haven’t stopped anyone in the past 4 weeks and with New England looking to secure the top seed in the AFC, Gronkowski and White are also players you should be looking at on Sunday morning.

Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected contest this week is….rolling the dice……oh wait we already know it’s the Saints and whoever they face. This week it is the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a strong performance, taking down the undefeated Panthers last weekend. The problem in this game is the only thing that matters is the rivalry. These teams hate each other more than any other rivalry, they just don’t get the press that some of these other teams get. This matchup has an over of 53 and that is 6 points higher than any other game this weekend and that means that stacks on this matchup should be something you consider more so than any other game. Players that are on the board are Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Freeman from the Falcons, Hightower, Brees, Watson and Cooks for the Saints. Personally, I like the Falcons players more so than the Saints, the exception being Hightower as most wouldn’t know this but the Falcons are #1 against the WR position this season in terms of fantasy performance. What the Falcons cannot stop is the RB and TE position. In their last contest, earlier in the season Ben Watson and Mark Ingram had over 26 fantasy points each in that contest while Brees and Cooks, not so much. Matt Ryan and any other top 20 QB that has played the Saints this season has scored at least 25 fantasy points. Julio Jones is shooting for a 16 catch 208 yard performance in order to be the single season all-time record holder for yards and receptions in the NFL. Take these guys and watch your score go above the 150 mark and use our Lineup Analyzer™ to get some recommendations for the rest.

Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (296.69)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  San Francisco projected (121.16) 
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (421.32)

These KPI’s are pointing to a huge scoring game between the Eagles and the Giants. In fact, DC*3PO’s top projected yardage output is the Giants and the Eagles at 839.07 total yards. This means taking OBJ and Jordan Matthews, along with Ertz should pan out well for you. The question for the Eagles is what offense are they going to run. Look for Murray to get the bulk of the carries in the backfield this weekend as the Eagles look to determine if they should keep Murray for next season. If Gurley plays, you must play him, if he doesn’t going with the backup in St. Louis while risky, what isn’t on week 17, Tre Mason, will tear apart that terrible run defense of the 49ers. In fact, we should all hope that Gurley sits this one out so we can all have the cheapest RB play that will get 20+ fantasy points on Sunday.

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games! Don’t forget to start your FREE TRIAL today just click here and use promo code WIN for a special discount.


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