Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 17

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Carolina at home against Tampa Bay – 11.5
  • Pittsburgh -11.5 at Cleveland
  • New England -11.5 at Miami

The three top favorite games all have impact into playoff positioning with two of these teams vying for home field throughout the playoffs with Carolina and New England. Both teams are playing below average teams that have nothing to play for other than they are divisional opponents so they certainly would like to throw a wrench in mix. As for Cleveland, Manziel pulled yet another idiotic move over the holiday weekend and now you just have to wonder, how did this kid even get into college? How much did his daddy have to pay Texas A&M for him to be able to play. I admit, even I thought he had a shot at being an electrifying playing in the NFL just like he was in college but look at his transgressions. So Austin Davis will most likely get the start and that bodes well for a Pittsburgh blowout. Unlike the Ravens who came to play last week and Big Ben did not, this one is for their season. Look for the Pittsburgh offense to roll the Browns and even the Steelers defense should be a consideration this week. For Carolina, it’s their defense and Cam Newton, you cannot rely on anyone else this weekend with Olsen and Stewart having some injury issues the past couple of weeks. In New England, Tom Brady could be owned by less than 10% of the field this weekend and he has owned Miami in his career. Not to mention the Dolphins haven’t stopped anyone in the past 4 weeks and with New England looking to secure the top seed in the AFC, Gronkowski and White are also players you should be looking at on Sunday morning.


Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected contest this week is….rolling the dice……oh wait we already know it’s the Saints and whoever they face. This week it is the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a strong performance, taking down the undefeated Panthers last weekend. The problem in this game is the only thing that matters is the rivalry. These teams hate each other more than any other rivalry, they just don’t get the press that some of these other teams get. This matchup has an over of 53 and that is 6 points higher than any other game this weekend and that means that stacks on this matchup should be something you consider more so than any other game. Players that are on the board are Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Freeman from the Falcons, Hightower, Brees, Watson and Cooks for the Saints. Personally, I like the Falcons players more so than the Saints, the exception being Hightower as most wouldn’t know this but the Falcons are #1 against the WR position this season in terms of fantasy performance. What the Falcons cannot stop is the RB and TE position. In their last contest, earlier in the season Ben Watson and Mark Ingram had over 26 fantasy points each in that contest while Brees and Cooks, not so much. Matt Ryan and any other top 20 QB that has played the Saints this season has scored at least 25 fantasy points. Julio Jones is shooting for a 16 catch 208 yard performance in order to be the single season all-time record holder for yards and receptions in the NFL. Take these guys and watch your score go above the 150 mark and use our Lineup Analyzer™ to get some recommendations for the rest.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (296.69)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  San Francisco projected (121.16) 
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (421.32)

These KPI’s are pointing to a huge scoring game between the Eagles and the Giants. In fact, DC*3PO’s top projected yardage output is the Giants and the Eagles at 839.07 total yards. This means taking OBJ and Jordan Matthews, along with Ertz should pan out well for you. The question for the Eagles is what offense are they going to run. Look for Murray to get the bulk of the carries in the backfield this weekend as the Eagles look to determine if they should keep Murray for next season. If Gurley plays, you must play him, if he doesn’t going with the backup in St. Louis while risky, what isn’t on week 17, Tre Mason, will tear apart that terrible run defense of the 49ers. In fact, we should all hope that Gurley sits this one out so we can all have the cheapest RB play that will get 20+ fantasy points on Sunday.

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games! Don’t forget to start your FREE TRIAL today just click here and use promo code WIN for a special discount.

 

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Happy New Year!!! – #BestMemoriesOf2015

Happy New Year

For last year’s words belong to last year’s language – And next year’s words await another voice.  We at the DiRT Canon would like to wish you an excellent new year – It’s a lot of fun putting this together and we thank you for joining us – 2016 is gonna rock – in the meantime, take a trip down memory lane and enjoy our “most read of 2015″…

1.

DiRTy Gras

Fear and Loathing at Carnival…

When the going get weird the weird turn pro, as Raoul Duke famously said, and I am a 7-time gold medalist on this caravan.  Still awake and doing my damndest to earn another shot at the medal-stand; I have yet to sleep from properly marking Lundi Gras with a Red Letter and have no plans stopping this party-train until the final whistle of Mardi Gras blows.  But, I do find myself in reflective thought…

Thoughts like did I miss anything on Sunday? Was the ‘over’ in the NBA All-Star Game good? Who invented liquid soap and why?  Where’s my attorney and at what time does this stop being legal?……(continue reading)

Source: DiRTy Gras | The Dirt Canon Blog

2.

Monday Dreg

105cb-brandon

A few of us found ourselves within the friendly confines of the DiRT Canon Safehouse on Sunday, with loads of charcuteurie, queso, other roasted animals and an assortment of football snacks to soak up whatever concoctions were being offered in celebration of professional football’s second holiest day. What we witnessed was a referendum on choking and how danger”Russ” it can be.

First the Colts, because that game provided as much drama as I’m sure Taken 3 provided, and why is it “Taken” anything? It should have been titled Murder 1, as in the mom is dead and no one is taken anywhere…anyway…The legacy of the Patriots, beyond the winning, is how they do it.  The Patriots conduct an approach that is different than most teams – meaning they will attack your STRENGTH more often than they will probe your weakness – that’s counter to what most teams do in this league and that is finding your weakest link and exploiting it until the link breaks.  For Wild Bill Belichick it’s different, he will savagely attack the strongest link in your chain.  He doesn’t want the link broken, he wants the whole chain crippled.  That is how the patriots confuse people and that is how they beat Indy’s brains in – like a carnival game of whack-a-mole – Bill took a lead-pipe to the Colts’ passing attack and kept whacking until the deformity was so severe, that the soul of the Colts had to be amputated……(continue reading)

Source: Monday Dreg | The Dirt Canon Blog

3.

3rd Stone from the Sun

There are many hard lessons to be learned from the “degenerate” experience, but the harshest one of them all is the difference between having Fun and being Smart.  It is the difference between Winning and Losing, on most days, and on Saturday theFinal Four will be a lesson for fun-loving Losers.  It does not matter if you haveWisconsin or Michigan St winning it all.  Nor does it matter if you have Duke orKentucky – the line for both games is 5 and if anyone tells you they know how it all plays out with certainty, well…you’ve been warned.

Saturday has never been kind or forgiving to these people.  They are taught all their lives that Saturday Night is when even idiots can cut loose and take risks that would be out of the question on any other night.  Get drunk, shoot guns, dance naked in public, or even crouch in your basement and hack into the NSA database…

If Sunday is the Lord’s day, then Saturday belongs to the devil……(continue reading)

Source: 3rd Stone from the Sun | The Dirt Canon Blog

4.

DiRT Poor

Never noticed how much Ryan Leaf looks like Matt Ryan

It has been said that the NFL stands for (N)ot (F)or (L)ong – so I thought we could look at the biggest (NFL)’s by each team, list is compiled by Charlie Campbell.  Be careful, these busts could bring up past feelings of hurt and woe…Let me know if I missed anyone – what are your thoughts?……(continue reading)

Source: DiRT Poor | The Dirt Canon Blog

5.

Memorial DiRT

To some, this three-day weekend means a break from work, a chance to go camping or maybe buy a new mattress at 40% off.  The last Monday in May is also marked as the official beginning of Summer – hot dogs, BBQ, swimming pools etc…That’s all fine, it’s part of the glory that makes us American – because we can.  As Patriots, we should also take a moment from our leisurely celebrations, to remember those that gave the ultimate sacrifice for this nation, along with the families of those that fell.  To those that preserved this nation, preserved our interests, and preserved our ideals that all men are created equal.  If true Patriotism is loving your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it – as Mark Twain said – then raise a glass to those that help defend and replenish the Tree of Liberty……(continue reading)

Source: Memorial DiRT | The Dirt Canon Blog

6.

Is the Taylor Swift Curse Real?

1. At Any Price?

Home Teams in the playoffs are now 0-4, and apparently there is a Taylor Swift 1989 tour going around spoiling the fun – Read more about it here.  Take Note Ranger Fan, Swift-y plays in Arlington a week from tomorrow.  As for David Price, he let Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos go deep – they are the #8 and #9 hitters – Price is now 0-6 all-time in the #MLBPostseason.  Randy Johnson once lost 7 in-a-row, but I do not see Price changing his spots anytime soon.

The Baseball post-season is now in full-swing – today we have 4 games, and with that, the last time we will have this many games in one day, for the rest of 2015, I suspect.  The BlueJays try to get back on track……(continue reading)

Source: Is the Taylor Swift Curse Real? | The Dirt Canon Blog

7.

Juicing your week 3 #NFL lineup like #adderallprobs

durantQB

DiRTy Plays NFL week 3

The season is underway and I know you are still looking to become a millionaire, whether you play on Draftkings or FanDuel, let us help. As we look at tournaments to target, build your player profile, we are also going to provide you with our experts’ picks as they bring you #TheBeSTDiRT for building your lineups each and every week. So let’s breakdown week 3 for Draftkings & FanDuel!……(continue reading)

Source: Juicing your week 3 #NFL lineup like #adderallprobs | The Dirt Canon Blog

8.

…Let there be DiRT

To some, the story goes…In the beginning the Lord created the Heavens and the Earth…and said let there be light, and there was, and it was good…then he decided to create Tebow and made him a QB and it was, meh.  Tim is maybe, one of the greatest college football quarterbacks, based on results, that constantly willed his team to victory, more than his talent.  In the record books, Tim has one-less playoff victory with the Denver Broncos than does Peyton Williams Manning.  That’s were the legend was born for most non-football fans that follow his exploits like methed-out Grateful Dead fans – except instead of a dead-head-sticker on their Cadillac, they were their love around their necks.  We all have a friend or two, that adore this man like no other – someone who would sacrifice an entire Fantasy Footballdraft/season to give him a roster spot, just to say, they drafted Tim Tebow.  No denying, Tim moves the needle……(continue reading)

Source: …Let there be DiRT | The Dirt Canon Blog

9.

DiRTy DiMEs Tuesday

maninironmask

Today, I wanted to take some time and provide you all with a breakdown of the last five games as it pertains to each position for your Daily NBA Fantasy games.  Each day I look to provide you with Absolute Must Haves, Notables and Sleepers. Within each of these categories I will look to provide you with players that you should consider taking in each night’s games, who will out perform their projection and how injuries will impact other players performance for that night.  In addition to this daily insight, I am going to provide you a weekly breakdown of players by position as it pertains to both Fan Duel and DraftKings.  So let’s take a look at the Overall Performances over the last 5 games for Fan Duel.  The overall, number one, player was Anthony Davis.  He comes in slightly higher than Westbrook but it should be noted that Davis did not play in all 5 games as such his average is based on last 3 games.  The notable players that I want to highlight for you are Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe.  Both of these players……(continue reading)

Source: DiRTy DiMEs Tuesday | The Dirt Canon Blog

10.

Clear as Mud

The Past is a statement, the Future a question.  Hopes rise and dreams flicker and die.  Love plans for tomorrow and the widowed think of yesterday.  Life is beautiful and living is hardship.  The sound of music flows down a dark street.  Like a tornado ripping thru your home and granting passage to a whole new world of colorful possibilities, only to realize it was all a delusion from the concussion you suffered because you rode your bike without a helmet – Ive seen it a hundred times.  Then the New Year began for the NFL.

Within 30min yesterday, the day moved from rumor and innuendo to surrealistic glee.  It was like watching a live chicken being dropped in a snake pit.  So with emancipated joy NFL GM’s traded away talent, signed perishable goods and threw fanbases off their bandwagons.  The Chipster trading Nick Foles for Sam Bradford and further having fans asking “whats up with that?”  The thing for me about Chip is this, he’s gonna succeed or drown doing it his way and you have to admire that.  Chip is channeling his inner Sinatra and good for him, but it’s hard to have faith in his conviction that X’s and O’s are better than Jimmy’s and Joe’s – scheme is cool Chipster, but players win titles…...(continue reading)

Source: Clear as Mud | The Dirt Canon Blog

11.

Bucket O’DiRT

hi-res-454303525-lesean-mccoy-of-the-philadelphia-eagles-carries-the_crop_exact

You gotta feel for Shady McCoy being done DiRTy like that, being sent to football’s wasteland to play for Rex Ryan.  Overnight the Eagles traded Lesean McCoy and although we talked about that happening, we believed Chip was going to take a different player from Oregon – instead of moving up to take Mariota, he got Kiko Alonso.

So Buffalo gets a Pro Bowl RB in his 7th season – to a team that has no real QB – expected to be a work-horse in a system that he may not be designed to handle.  Shady is not a rex-ryan-run-heavy type of running back, and this now signals the end for CJ Spiller, and although he has to look for a job – Im sure he revels in getting out.

Philly improves their defense with a……(continue reading)

Source: Bucket O’DiRT | The Dirt Canon Blog

12.

Monday Dregs

nba

Going into the weekend, we had the NBA trade deadline that usually ends up being a shell game of bad contracts and stiffs.  No one would blame you if you looked away to make some late-afternoon nachos and and come back to Sportscenter to yell “what the hell just happened?” Indeed.  What did happen? It seems that Dragic was the fuse to the whole powder keg and the rest of the league got covered in guts.  From there it was a mad dash to the grocery store in a blizzard for some teams, forgoing the essentials and heading straight for the items that make you glad you have sweatpants.

If you needed anymore proof of how valuable Lebron James is, look no further than the Heat trade.  Without Lebron, Miami has been struggling and needed to do something to make the bottom rung of the eastern conference playoff tree – Getting Dragic makes the Heat a better team but barely more than the 7th seed in the East, and he leaves to be a free-agent at the end of they year.  Meanwhile, the Cavs are playing the best ‘ball’ in the NBA right now and they’re currently 2 games out from the 2nd seed.  When last season they could only manage 33 total wins and missed the ‘offs……(continue reading)

Source: Monday Dregs | The Dirt Canon Blog