Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 16

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Seattle -13.5 over St. Louis
  • Kansas City -12.5 over Cleveland
  • Pittsburgh -10 over Baltimore

The blowout for the holiday weekend is Seattle over St. Louis by 13.5 points. Seattle is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now but Baldwin emerged with a hamstring issue and the Seahawks don’t really have anything to play for as they cannot win the division so the only seeding that remains for them is 5 or 6. Regardless, that means no home games in the playoffs for Seattle this season and so they may look to rest some of these guys over the last two games. That could mean a heavy running attack and that means Christine Michael should be on your radar. The next game is the Chiefs versus the Browns. The Browns have been awful, except against the 49ers and the Chiefs are riding an 8 game win streak right now. Look for Maclin to continue his 12+ fantasy point streak to 8 games this weekend and West, should have another big game this Sunday! Last we have Pittsburgh against the Ravens. This game has typically been a blood bath but this season, not so much. The Ravens have a ton of injuries and they are forced to play Clausen at QB. In this matchup, it is hard to not just ride with Big Ben and Antonio Brown combo breaker, especially against the second worst pass defense in the league but you should also consider Aiken on the other side because the Steelers are the worst against WR1 position this season.

Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected contest this week for the 7th out of the last 8 weeks is the Saints contest. This week they go up against the Jaguars and their 3rd ranked passing attack. That doesn’t bode well for the Saints terrible passing defense and so how should this impact your daily fantasy selections? This means that Bortles will most likely be selected by over 30% of the field and this is a guy that you should just have this week. But who else should you consider? Allen Robinson is a top 5 WR in the NFL and so he is a selection consideration every week. Julius Thomas has scored at least 11 fantasy points in 7 straight games and the saints are by far the worst defense against the TE1 position this season. At RB, Denard Robinson is expected to start and play for the Jags and he should also be a consideration for low cost, high upside in this contest. The main issue here is if Drew Brees will play on the other side of the ball. This has the potential for high scoring but if Brees is unable to go, the entire Saints offense should not be considered in your daily fantasy lineups. If Brees does go, ride with Cooks and Hightower, then watch for the injury status on Ben Watson.

Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  New Orleans projected (284.19)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  Miami projected (128.76) – Sunday only PHI for Saturday at 132.4
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  New Orleans & Miami projected (407)

These are very key indicators for daily fantasy exploits and this week, all signs point to the Jacksonville offense and you probably won’t go wrong with any of their key players. As for Miami, they are playing against the Colts and so the numbers probably won’t pan out as bad as they have been over the past several weeks. That said, playing Gore at a small salary position for one of your RB’s this weekend could get you around 18 fantasy points. At the WR position, this seems like a week that TY Hilton goes off, the issue is the QB for the Colts and who that might even be.

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games! Don’t forget to start your FREE TRIAL today just click here and use promo code WIN for a special discount.


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