Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 15

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Seattle -16 over Cleveland
  • New England -15.5 over Tennessee
  • Kansas City -7.5 over Baltimore

The largest projected blowout by Vegas this week is Seattle at home over the Cleveland Browns. Seattle’s offense has taken off of late and Cleveland hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season. Look for Wilson to continue his hot streak and consider taking both Lockett and Baldwin this week with the Seattle defense. This stack should get you between 90 and 100 fantasy points on Sunday afternoon. Moving onto the next matchup, we have the Patriots -15.5 over the Titans. The obvious fantasy selection in this one is Tom Brady. Did you know that Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD’s in each of his last 3 games against the Titans. The problem with Brady and Gronkowski is their price, they are almost too expensive to consider, specifically from a value perspective. Look for White to catch a bunch of balls and he should be a consideration for your Flex play this week. Last we have the Chiefs over the Ravens by 7.5 points. Alex Smith has played very well of late and look for this to continue as the Ravens secondary has been torched all season, including 5 TD’s last weekend. This also means that Maclin is a top 5 WR this weekend. He is only $5,500 on DraftKings so you should have him across the board.


Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected contest this week the Saints and Lions. The Saints have led this category for the last 5 weeks and have gone 3 – 2 in terms of the over in those games. This has been partly due to competition and this week they get the Stafford and Megatron show coming into town. While that duo hasn’t done too much this season, the exception was Thanksgiving Day and DC*3PO shows that combo breaker should produce over 60 fantasy points this Monday night. In our Absolute’s post yesterday, we showed why Drew Brees should be a strong consideration for QB this week as he will be owned by less than 7% of the field and he is the top projected QB for the week. Another #Sleeper to consider is Tim Hightower as the Lions will give up at least one rushing TD in this game and Hightower is the clear guy at this point.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (287.02)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  Miami projected (129.49)
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  New Orleans projected (403.6)

What does this mean for your daily fantasy selections? You have 4 options for QB this weekend and those are Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Matt Stafford. At WR, your considerations based on Matchup are Maclin, Ted Ginn Jr., John Brown & Calvin Johnson. At TE, beyond Gronkowski, there is Ben Watson or Richard Rodgers. At RB, while Miami is projected to give up the most, San Diego doesn’t run the ball so could you take Woodhead, sure but Hightower, Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Hill and Lamar Miller are the top RB plays this weekend. At defense, it’s Seattle at home against Manziel or the Chiefs against whoever the Ravens play at QB this week.

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games! Don’t forget to start your FREE TRIAL today just click here and use promo code WIN for a special discount.

 

We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or DM us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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2015 #CFP BowlGame-A-Palooza

name of site - hunter thompson style1530489_10202780417421316_1367980287_nIt’s beginning to look a lot like…$$$

Put together for your entertainment purposes, just like last year when we were 78% accurate ATS and so again, it’s here to help you either #win ca$h or your office pool – DC*3PO has outlined what the opening line(Op.Line) is, the game-win-probability(GWP) for the confidence picks and where you should lean.  Usually I am in Vegas at this time making a nice Christmas bonus for the year on these games – maybe next year – but for now this’ll just have to do, so enjoy and start a discussion – we’ll even try and throw a little in depth review as the bowl games come up.

LEGEND:

Op.Line = opening line

DC*3PO PowerPlay Rating = DC*3PO’s Power Play Rating is our A.I.’s rating that comes from several factors, including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. It is a less-reactive rating that is an excellent tool of evaluation – the higher the number, the better the team is.

DC*3PO GWP = DC*3PO’s probability of that team winning the game SU

DC*3PO Team Rating = DC*3PO’s overall team rating that takes into consideration how each team operates offensively, defensively, special teams and other metrics involving time of possession, with drive efficiency – the higher the number the better the team is.

DC*3PO Xpected Line = What DC*3PO believes the line should be.

Bowl Game

Op.Line

DC*3PO Power Play Rating

DC*3PO GWP

DC*3PO Team Rating

DC*3PO Xpected Line

New Mexico

 

 

Arizona

-10

66

56%

0.167

New Mexico

52

44%

0.223

-0.56

 

 

 

 

Las Vegas

 

 

 

BYU

82

70%

1.181

Utah

-2.5

81

30%

1.283

-1.02

 

 

 

 

Camellia

 

 

 

Ohio

52

39%

0.69

Appalachian State

-9

71

61%

1.203

-5.13

 

 

 

 

Cure

 

 

 

San Jose State

-4.5

51

54%

-0.356

Georgia State

43

46%

0.223

-5.79

 

 

 

 

New Orleans

 

 

 

Arkansas State

64

49%

1.128

Louisiana Tech

-1

66

51%

0.965

1.63

 

 

 

 

Miami Beach

 

 

 

Western Kentucky

-4

88

75%

2.297

South Florida

77

25%

1.192

11.05

 

 

 

 

Famous Idaho

 

 

 

Akron

50

41%

0.32

Utah State

-6

69

59%

0.956

-6.36

 

 

 

 

Boca Raton

 

 

 

Toledo

79

68%

1.538

Temple

-1

77

32%

1.027

5.11

 

 

 

 

Poinsettia

 

 

 

Boise State

-8.5

87

74%

1.209

Northern Illinois

71

26%

0.6

6.09

 

 

 

 

GoDaddy.com

 

 

 

Georgia Southern

73

25%

1.052

Bowling Green

-7

88

75%

1.744

-6.92

 

 

 

 

Bahamas

 

 

 

Middle Tennessee

62

39%

-0.04

Western Michigan

-2.5

71

61%

0.764

-8.04

 

 

 

 

Hawaii

 

 

 

Cincinnati

-1

70

33%

0.421

San Diego State

78

67%

1.677

-12.56

 

 

 

 

St.Petersburg

 

 

 

Connecticut

53

38%

0.49

Marshall

-4.5

72

62%

1.149

-6.59

 

 

 

 

Sun

 

 

 

Miami

70

35%

0.305

Washington State

-2.5

76

65%

0.567

-2.62

 

 

 

 

Heart of Dallas

 

 

 

Southern Mississippi

73

23%

1.373

Washington

-8.5

90

77%

1.136

2.37

 

 

 

 

Pinstripe

 

 

 

Indiana

-1.5

67

41%

0.287

Duke

69

59%

0.231

0.56

 

 

 

 

Independence

 

 

 

Tulsa

46

36%

-0.255

Virginia Tech

-13.5

75

64%

0.565

-8.2

 

 

 

 

Foster Farm

 

 

 

Nebraska

77

26%

0.8

UCLA

-6

86

74%

1

-2

 

 

 

 

Military

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

77

26%

0.889

Navy

-5

86

74%

1.662

-7.73

 

 

 

 

Quick Lane

 

 

 

Central Michigan

61

45%

0.315

Minnesota

-5.5

64

55%

0.181

1.34

 

 

 

 

Armed Forces

 

 

 

Air Force

68

39%

0.706

California

-6

71

61%

0.484

2.22

 

 

 

 

Russell Athletic

 

 

 

Baylor

-2.5

95

81%

1.645

North Carolina

92

19%

1.639

0.06

 

 

 

 

Arizona

 

 

 

Nevada

49

48%

-0.293

Colorado State

-3

54

52%

0.42

-7.13

 

 

 

 

Texas

 

 

 

Texas Tech

69

29%

0.316

LSU

-7.5

83

71%

1.213

-8.97

 

 

 

 

Birmingham

 

 

 

Memphis

85

73%

1.501

Auburn

-3

73

27%

0.601

9

 

 

 

 

Belk

 

 

 

North Carolina State

79

25%

1.039

Mississippi State

-5

88

75%

1.123

-0.84

 

 

 

 

Music City

 

 

 

Louisville

75

33%

0.509

Texas a&m

-3

78

67%

0.873

-3.64

 

 

 

 

Holiday

 

 

 

Wisconsin

81

26%

1.003

USC

-3

87

74%

1.505

-5.02

 

 

 

 

Peach

 

 

 

Houston

92

15%

2.074

Florida State

-6.5

99

85%

1.491

5.83

 

 

 

 

Cotton

 

 

 

Michigan State

100

2%

1.725

Alabama

-10

115

98%

2.128

-4.03

 

 

 

 

Orange

 

 

 

Oklahoma

-3.5

117

80%

2.279

Clemson

104

20%

2.049

2.3

 

 

 

 

Outback

 

 

 

Tennessee

-8

89

76%

1.438

Northwestern

70

24%

0.632

8.06

 

 

 

 

Citrus

 

 

 

Florida

78

27%

1.271

Michigan

-4

85

73%

1.472

-2.01

 

 

 

 

Fiesta

 

 

 

Notre Dame

98

4%

1.81

Ohio State

-6.5

112

96%

2.094

-2.84

 

 

 

 

Rose

 

 

 

Iowa

84

15%

1.457

Stanford

-7

100

85%

2.152

-6.95

 

 

 

 

Sugar

 

 

 

Mississippi

-6.5

93

79%

1.449

Oklahoma State

84

21%

1.325

1.24

 

 

 

 

TaxSlayer

 

 

 

Penn State

69

30%

0.511

Georgia

-7

82

70%

0.891

-3.8

 

 

 

 

Liberty

 

 

 

Kansas State

66

29%

0.372

Arkansas

-11

83

71%

1.09

-7.18

 

 

 

 

Alamo

 

 

 

TCU

pk

98

84%

1.372

Oregon

90

16%

0.951

4.21

 

 

 

 

Cactus

 

 

 

West Virginia

86

74%

1.013

Arizona State

-1

75

26%

0.739

2.74