Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 14

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Kansas City -11.5 over San Diego
  • Arizona -9.5 over Minnesota
  • Carolina -8.5 over Atlanta

For the top projected blowout for this weekend we have the Chiefs over the Chargers and really why not right. The Chiefs might be playing the best ball in the NFL if it weren’t for the Panthers right now and they just destroyed the Chargers a couple of weeks ago in San Diego. Look for this game to be another big game for the Chiefs and I like the play of Alex Smith along with Jeremy Maclin as a nice combo. In the second game we have the Thursday night matchup of the Cardinals and the Vikings. For this game you must play Carson Palmer and another play that I like is David Johnson. Johnson gave you a 20 spot last week with a salary under $4,000 on DraftKings and while his salary did go up, it is still on the cheap end of the spectrum. The other thing to keep in mind for this game is all of the injuries that the Vikings are dealing with on the defensive side of the ball. For the last matchup we have the Panthers and the Falcons. These two teams couldn’t be playing differently and in a normal situation you would say that the Panthers should destroy the Falcons but this is a divisional game. Just like last week, the Saints gave the Panthers a game to the bitter end and that will most likely be the case again this week. Look for the Panthers to hit a late field goal for the win but an outcome of 24 – 21. For your fantasy team, this means Cam Newton should be considered, along with Greg Olsen for the Panthers. For the Falcons, I still like Julio Jones as a top 5 WR this week and Freeman is still bringing in 20 fantasy points per game even with the offensive woes the Falcons have been going through of late.


Top Overall Game Over/Under

Raymond James Stadium_headshots_originalThe highest projected contest this week the Saints and Bucs, coming in at 50.5 points. The Saints topped this list last week and they didn’t disappoint as they gave up 41 points and managed to put up 38 of their own. Now they get the Bucs in Tampa and look for another shootout in the NFC south. The combination of Seferian-Jenkins and Winston should be considered as the Saints are giving up a league high to the QB at just over 26 points per game and just over 20 points per game to the TE position, also being the most in the league. The Saints also manage to give up just over 26 points to the RB1 position, which also leads the league so a Doug Martin play should also be considered.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (301.87)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  Cleveland Browns projected (131.87)
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  New York Giants projected (420.87)

What does this mean for your daily fantasy selections, simply put, take Jarvis Landry combined with Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller this week. The Giants cannot stop anyone right now and even though Miami doesn’t possess the type of juggernaut offense that some of the teams in the NFL have these days, they can still put up points in a hurry. Another sleeper running back that should be considered based on this information is Shaun Draughn. He has had good production of late and the Browns will give up a ton in the run game, look for this to continue.

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games! Don’t forget to start your FREE TRIAL today just click here and use promo code WIN for a special discount.

 

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What You Need To Know For #TNF & 4 More Things

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1.

By the Time I Get To Arizona…

 

The Vikes are missing 4 guys on D.  Anyone else think this could get ugly in a hurry in the desert?  If it was in the cold blanket of the outdoors of Minnesota, maybe…Sure A.P. is whining that he’s not getting the ball enough and the last time he did that he went off – this is the matchup tonight – Adrian Peterson, child-abuser versus the front 7 of Arizona.  For me, the issue is not so much that matchup, it’s can the Vikes score enough points regardless what A.P. does.

When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals as home favorites are 9-3-1 against-the-spread, but All-time, touchdown or greater underdogs against the Cardinals are 20-10-1 against-the-spread – so something has to give.  DC*3PO says the Cards win by only 4 so to take the Vikes – make mine the Cards, as they are the better team and Minnesota struggles against good teams – in fact John Beckwith made a bet that Minnesota would not beat another team whose record is above .500 – so far they have not.

Guys to watch on #DraftKings for Tonight’s game, according to DC*3PO

  • Carson Palmer $6,500 – 19.8 – 66.6%
  • Adrian Peterson $6,900 – 15.4 – 40.9%
  • Larry Fitzgerald $7,400 – 15.3 – 57.7%
  • Teddy Bridgewater $5,100 – 13.5 – 45.4%
  • John Brown $4,500 – 13 – 51.1%

Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, during a game against the Minnesota Vikings on Dec. 6.

2.

Can The Seahawks Get Back To The Super Bowl?

The Seattle Seahawks came into 2015 as championship favorites, having put up one of the best two-year runs in NFL history, with a bid for back-to-back titles undone by one of the most shocking twist endings in Super Bowl history. But things went downhill in a hurry. Seattle lost four of its first six games; then won two in a row, against the foundering 49ers and Cowboys; and in Week 10 dropped a crucial home game against the Cardinals that effectively killed any chance of a third consecutive NFC West crown. It was mid-November and the Seahawks were unlikely to make the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl.

Source: Can The Seahawks Get Back To The Super Bowl?


 

3.

Last One Out of the Circus…

San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich fired another shot from long range Wednesday night as he continued to voice his displeasure over 3-point shots.

“I still hate it,” Popovich told reporters before the Spurs’ 97-94 loss to theToronto Raptors. “I’ll never embrace it. I don’t think it’s basketball. I think it’s kind of like a circus sort of thing. Why don’t we have a 5-point shot? A 7-point shot? You know, where does it stop, that sort of thing.

“But that’s just me, that’s just old-school. To a certain degree, you better embrace it or you’re going to lose. And every time we’ve won a championship, the 3-point shot was a big part of it. Because……(continue reading)

Source: San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich says 3-pointer is ‘like a circus sort of thing’


4.

Day 3 and Counting…

The great thing about the Winter Meetings is that every club is involved. No matter who you root for, there is going to be a rumor or two tied to your team every day of the proceedings. With that in mind, here’s a look at the most intriguing rumors attached to each club, as of Wednesday night.

Source: Winter Meetings rumors roundup of all 30 teams | MLB.com


5.

Now We Are Just Finding Reasons?

As a player with the San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots, Rodney Harrison thrived off every slight, real or simply perceived.

It seems Harrision may have a kindred spirit in Carolina Panthers’ cornerback Josh Norman.

On Sunday night, Harrison, now an NBC commentator, said on “Football Night in America” that the 7-5 Seahawks are more dangerous than the undefeated Panthers. On Wednesday, appearing on “ProFootballTalk,” Harrison gave the edge to Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones in his matchup with Norman this Sunday.

A Carolina fan tweeted that first Harrison “said the Seahawks are better than the Panthers, now he’s calling out” Norman, and wondered what’s wrong with Harrison while giving the link to Harrison’s ProFootballTalk appearance.……(continue reading)

Source: Panthers’ Josh Norman says NBC’s Rodney Harrison ‘horrible at his job’