Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 11

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Seattle -13.5 over San Francisco
  • Carolina -8.5 over Washington
  • New England -7.5 over Buffalo

I don’t think that any of these really shock anyone here but let’s break them down a bit further, in terms of how they will impact your daily fantasy decisions. First we have the Seattle game. This game was ugly the first time around and I don’t expect for it to be much different here. The one thing that most people don’t know about the 49ers is that their defense has been pretty tough this year. They are ranked in the top half of the league in almost every fantasy category. Combine that with the fact that they sacked Russell Wilson 4 times in their last contest, this proves to be a defensive game. So who should you consider in this matchup, only the Seattle Defense. You could take a risk on the 49ers D but there are better options and if Seattle is going to make a push for the playoffs, it will start this weekend against the 49ers and this means their defense has to be at the top of their game. Next we have the Panthers taking on Washington. While Washington is playing better of late and the infamous, “You Like That” is hitting main stream streets now, let’s face it, the Panthers are undefeated and should win this game pretty handily. Washington has given up a ton in the run game of late and that is what the Panther do. The only real player to take in this game is Cam Newton. It might be Greg Olsen day but he has been an extreme roller coaster this year and personally, I think this is a run game where Cam and Stewart will handle most of the load. Last we have the Patriots and Bills on Monday Night. The Bills made a 4th quarter surge in their previous contest with the Pats and the Pats are dwindling down from a personnel perspective but I’m taking Tom Brady until he proves me wrong. The key guy in this game is going to be Amendola. Expect the public to be all over him in daily fantasy this week but that probably means so should you. You won’t find a cheaper option that should get over 12 targets this week and if he converts them in the pass game, he could be a 20 point player that allows for you to possibly get a Julio Jones or Rob Gronkowski.


Top Overall Game Over/Under

The highest projected matchup for this week according to Vegas is Detroit and Oakland, coming in at 48.5 points this weekend. I like this game to be a high scoring affair, so what does this mean to your daily fantasy selections you ask? Matt Stafford has a big play potential rating of 70% this weekend against the Raiders and this has been a very pointed key performance indicator that most of you don’t even know we offer. Come check it out for DraftKings here and you will see who has the best shot at a 50 yard play or more this week. As for Oakland, I think this might be the week of Amari Cooper but DC*3PO is all over Crabtree this week. The main reason for that is because Crabtree has lead the team in targets at 11.5 over the past 4 games and proves to be a crutch when Carr is under pressure. Carr is also a strong consideration but Stafford saves you an extra $900 on DraftKings this week. Latavius Murray is another sneaky play this week. He isn’t consider a #Sleeper but that is only because he is just above our lower salary threshold, where his value is pretty high this week. Last, you have Megatron, he will have a good game this week and should get in the end zone at least one time. Look for this game to end 34 – 31 as Oakland squeaks out a road victory.


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Defense to Exploit:  Oakland projected (293.4)
  • Rushing Defense to Exploit:  Miami projected (124.76)
  • Overall Defense to Exploit:  Oakland projected (412.2)

Matthew Stafford_headshots_195x270So who should you take based off this information, let’s take an inside look at the Oakland defense, since they have showed up for both passing and overall this week. Oakland has been struggling against the pass giving up the 3rd most points to WR1’s over the past 4 games, largely due to the explosion by Antonio Brown and then last week they let AP go for over 200 yards rushing. Detroit is going to run their way to victory so look for the Stafford to Calvin stack to have a big impact and don’t forget the 70% chance that Stafford throws a completed pass over 50 yards this week. On the run defense, you have to take McFadden. You combine McFadden with West and you have now spent a grand total of $9,500 on your two RB positions. That is only 19% of your salary and should produce at least 45 fantasy points. That 45 points would represent 28.8% of needed points to cash this week, which is projected to be 158.62 (based on previous season and current season stats for main contest).

Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

I wouldn’t recommend any stacks that include the Titans & Jags players for tonight’s contest so the only reason to get in tonight for the NFL would be to join the $5 Millionaire contest on DraftKings because that payout is very high considering the entry fee.

We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or DM us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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