Teaching You How to #Win – Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit Week 10

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Green Bay -13 over the Lions
  • Cincinnati -12 over Houston
  • New England -8.5 over the Giants

This week is the first one since the Patriots bye week that they don’t lead the Heavy Favorites category for this weekend’s contests. Instead we have the Packers over the Lions but 13 points. I’m on the Packers this week as they get to head home and get the 1-7 Lions. Look for Rodgers to have a confidence building game and he will throw for 4 TD’s in this game. I have the Packers rolling in this one 44 – 16. Next we have the Bengals on Monday Night over the Texans by 12 points. I recall a few playoff games where the Texans have owned Andy Dalton and JJ Watt has scored two TD’s on the defensive side of the ball against he Bengals. That said, this year is quite a bit different so I’m on the Bengals and I will give the points as I think this is another blowout win for the Bengals, 34 – 13. Last we have the Patriots by 8.5 points over the Giants. This is a game that most people will be on the Patriots as the Giants just haven’t looked great this season. Instead they have been a set of rolling hills and if you were to measure their wave calculation, you wouldn’t even know the direction of the current this season. I like the Patriots to win but I would take the Giants and the points as I think Gostkowski hits a couple of late field goals and the Patriots survive a close one 33 – 30.

Top Players To Consider based on these matchups:

  • Rob Gronkowski (Might be #1 overall this week in daily fantasy)
  • Tom Brady (projected as #2 QB this week)
  • Aaron Rodgers (projected #1 overall QB this week)
  • James Starks (In the starting lineup and Lions giving up over 18 points per game to the starting RB over their last 3 games)
  • AJ Green (Hasn’t been involved much but this is show time, look for a big game)
  • Nate Washington (Super cheap play this week that will get 10+ targets in this game as the Texans will throw it over 40 times in this contest)

 


Top Overall Game Over/Under

No surprise here as the Patriots and Giants have the top over/under this weekend at 55 points. I don’t think this is high enough as I have already predicted 63 points in this contest. Consider this, the Giants have given up 10 TD’s to the TE position this season with an 86.9 average yards against. Gronkowski didn’t score last week which means that he will score in this contest if you look at his historical performance. In fact he has scored 2 TD’s after coming off a no TD contest 56.8% of the time. Gronkowski is expensive but he is going to be a 30+ fantasy point scorer this week on DraftKings and at least 24 on FanDuel. The Giants have no one that can stop him but they are going to score as well. This means you should take Odell Beckham Jr. The DiRT Canon projection for him this week is 18.1 and that might even be a bit low considering he has been averaging 26.8 over his last 3 games.

 


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is New England projected to give up 302.93
  • Rushing Yards is Washington projected to give up 134.65
  • Overall Yards is Washington projected to give up 424.6

#NailedIt again last week as my last minute start was Big Ben and Antonio Brown combo breaker and had Big Ben finished the contest, I have no doubt he would have been #1 for the week. Brown took that down with ease. So what do we have for this week based on our matchups to exploit. I give you Mark Ingram as my #4 RB for the week that will be taken by less than 5% of the field. I also like Drew Brees again but if you want a QB/TE combo then you have to go with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski or if you want to go cheap and go highend every where else then Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed should lead that charge for you. Last week the Saints gave up 68 fantasy points to the Mariota/Walker combo and this week doesn’t look much different from that perspective. This will be a high scoring contest, exploit that matchup. As for DC*3PO’s top RB to take this week, he has Todd Gurley, rolling the Bears at home where he has averaged over 140 rushing yards. I personally like DeAngelo Williams if he can go this week as he gets the Cleveland rushing defense or James Starks as a very likely sleeper. Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

I wouldn’t recommend any stacks that include the Jets and Bills players for tonight’s contest so the only reason to get in tonight for the NFL would be to join the $5 Millionaire contest on DraftKings because that payout is very high considering the entry fee.

We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or DM us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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What You Need To Know to #Win #TNF + #CollegeFootball (11-12-15)

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1. Dred Pirate Ryan’s Revenge:

Buffalo is 4-4 on the year with the 33-17 home victory last week to the Miami Dolphins. This broke a two game losing streak as the Bills produced 420 offensive yards with 266 rushing on 36 carries. Tyrod Taylor was 11 of 12, for 181 yards and a touchdown. Both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy combined for three rushing touchdowns and each had over 100 yards rushing. Bills allowed 397 yards to the Miami offense with 309 yards passing to Ryan Tannehill. The team is second best in the NFL in rush offense by running for 141.6 yards per game.

New York Jets improve to 5-3 with the 28-23 home victory last week to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets had just 290 yards of offense with 29 running on 28 carries. Ryan Fitzpatrick hit 21 of 34 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns. Jets benefitted by a +4 turnover margin and went 3 of 3 inside the red zone. They registered six sacks. New York allowed 436 yards to the Jacksonville offense with 381 yards passing with two touchdowns throws and two picks by quarterback Blake Bortles. The team is fourth in the NFL in total defense by allowing 323 yards per game.

  • Guys to watch on #DraftKings for Tonight’s game, according to DC*3PO
    • Tyrod Taylor $5,500 – 17.9 – 20%
    • Brandon Marshall $7,400 – 17.8 – 60%
    • Chris Ivory $5,900 – 17.2 – 60%
    • Ryan Fitzpatrick $5,100 – 16.7 – 52.5%
    • Eric Decker $5,300 – 13.8 – 65%

2. Ramblin’ Wreck:

7:30p EST ESPN – VaTech @ GaTech

For Frank Beamer, this is the beginning of the end.  It seems appropriate to start his brief farewell tour tonight in Atlanta.  Beamer used these non-traditional games to help draw attention to Virginia Tech as he was building the Hokies into a national powerhouse.  Over the years, Georgia Tech was often the opponent.  “That’s what this program is all about,” Beamer said. “It gave us our identity here that we were a total program and a football team that played hard and played well most of the time.”

In recent seasons, Virginia Tech (4-5, 2-3 Atlantic Coast Conference) hasn’t won nearly enough. Since 2011, when the Hokies last played in the ACC championship game, they are 14-15 in league games and just 26-22 overall.  Feeling the heat, Beamer announced last week that this season, his 29th in Blacksburg, will be his last. About the only thing left to play for is the nation’s longest active streak of bowl appearances, which is at 22……(continue reading)


3. Bolder Boulder:

9:00p EST ESPN2 – USC @ CU
This is not quite the matchup it used to be.  It used to be for all the marbles.  Year in and year out, when these two teams played it was for more than just the division, or the conference – it was a national title playoff before the playoffs were invented in college football.  Sure the history has been tilted, but for the past decade – this has been THE GAME.  The Nation watched and….huh? what was that….Oh right LSU vs Alabama was last week – sorry about that, it’s been a long week trying to get over that beating, I might have a transitory concussion and have been admitted into the league’s protocol – as for this game, #CMonMan, just look at that guy in the picture – do you think that dude wins at anything besides panty-raids at the Goodwill for outfit ideas, while he jams out to his Britney Spears’ records?!


<-One Big Thing->

4. Generation of Youth Soccer

You know lately I find myself having an uncontrollable urge to smack our entire country upside it’s collective head.  Common sense isn’t dead, it’s been cremated and Snoop dawg is smokin’ its ashes in his lucky steelers’ shoe.  There is so little common sense that Thomas Paine might have enough steam coming out of his grave that it could power a Prius and a CU hipsters self-satisfaction

You cant get off an elevator without some wethead trying to spawn upstream before everyone else is trying to get off.

You cant get in your car and not run into another idiot who pulls into a gas station with the gas tank on the wrong side, to then get instruction from mission control, GPS navigation device to find out the proper side – or you cannot read online without reading about some moron getting smashed by a train, all because they had to rush home in time to make the walking dead or Sunday night HBO – regardless of this new technology called a DVR.

What the f*@# has happened to us?!  Is a chalk outline being slowly drawn around common sense?  Can ‘Murica identify the victim?  We went from a nation of hard-working-practical-minded-can-do-johnny-get-your-gun-rosie-riveter-bad-assess to a bunch of touchy-sniveling-butt-hurt-cry-babies who no longer can take it on the chin without bullying someone on twitter or running to their lawyer, or….

……Missouri student body prez Payton Head posts on Facebook that the KKK is on campus and that he is “working with” the National Guard, neither of which is true. He later sends out a post apologizing for the “misinformation,” explaining that he was reacting to rumors about the KKK being on campus (from whom? can you tell us who told you that?) but not explaining about the National Guard, because how can there be misinformation about a group you are working with when you are not exactly doing so?

Meanwhile, media reports that Melissa Click, (gal in picture) has resigned, although all she resigned from was an honorary post with the journalism school, and not from her actual gig.

Jonathan Butler sends out a list of DEMANDS — not requests — beginning with a demand that the president of Missouri’s university system apologize for his “white privilege.” Sure, as soon as Butler apologizes for his family having a net worth of more than $10 million (I’m low-balling that).

Facts no longer matter, of course, because a millennial has taken umbrage, and when that happens (and I have personal history with this), cities must be torched and lives destroyed. This is very little about race. It’s a lot more about a generation that has been coddled and indulged and led to believe that their sh*t — whether they turn it into a poop swastika or not — doesn’t stink. It Does! (h/t John Walters, Medium Happy)

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