Ascending Tide: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 10) | FiveThirtyEight

Are you still riding the excitement from Saturday’s college football games? (After that crazy Arkansas 4th-and-25 lateral, how could you not be?) If so, then you probably can’t bear to wait until Tuesday to see how the College Football Playoff committee will rejigger its rankings. So FiveThirtyEight has got you covered. On Sunday, after each week’s games, we will cook up some fresh predictions from our model. (These numbers will change again on Tuesday night after the new committee rankings are released.) Here’s a breakdown of how this week’s games affected the model:

The Tide rolled over No. 2 LSU on Saturday night, 30 to 16, giving them the best Elo rating and a top-four mark, according to the Football Power Index. Our model now says No. 4 Alabama’s chances of making the playoff rose from 41 percent to 54 percent, while LSU’s odds fell from 30 percent to 19 percent.

TCU suffered the biggest blow to its playoff hopes, falling from 31 percent to 10 percent, after the Horned Frogs were walloped by Oklahoma State, which moved up to 16 percent.

No. 1 Clemson, after grinding out a 23-13 win over Florida State, surpassed Ohio State with the best odds to make the playoff: 61 percent. Clemson and Ohio State are now tied as the best bets to win the national title. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, with four wins and six losses, are nowhere to be found on this table, but their effect sure is: after they upset Michigan State, 39-38, the Spartans’ playoff chances fell from 22 percent to 10 percent.

RANKING PROBABILITY OF …
TEAM CFP ELO FPI CONF. TITLE PLAYOFF NAT. TITLE
Clemson 1 3 6 68% 61% 16%
Ohio State 3 2 5 46% 59% 16%
Alabama 4 1 4 35% 54% 14%
Notre Dame 5 6 9 35% 8%
Baylor 6 7 2 35% 29% 11%
Stanford 11 5 11 52% 27% 6%
LSU 2 9 8 14% 19% 5%
Oklahoma 15 14 1 19% 18% 7%
Oklahoma St. 14 4 13 37% 16% 3%
Florida 10 10 14 38% 16% 3%
Michigan State 7 8 22 12% 10% 1%
Utah 12 11 21 22% 10% 1%
TCU 8 12 3 9% 10% 3%
Iowa 9 13 29 27% 8% <1%
Michigan 17 20 16 13% 8% 1%
Mississippi St. 20 16 15 3% 6% <1%
USC 19 7 18% 4% 1%
UCLA 23 21 18 7% 3% <1%
Houston 25 22 36 33% 2% <1%
North Carolina 18 20 30% 2% <1%
Navy 15 53 18% <1% <1%
Mississippi 18 26 10 9% <1% <1%
Oregon 23 32 <1% <1% <1%
Temple 22 28 39 43% <1% <1%
Florida State 16 24 17 0% <1% <1%
Wisconsin 17 24 3% <1% <1%
Arkansas 25 26 <1% <1% <1%
Memphis 13 30 44 3% <1% <1%
Northwestern 21 29 60 <1% <1% <1%
Toledo 24 39 52 10% <1% <1%
Texas A&M 19 48 23 <1% <1% <1%

Source: Ascending Tide: Updated College Football Playoff Predictions (Week 10) | FiveThirtyEight

Missouri players sit out in protest amid racial unrest.

name of site - hunter thompson styleIn response to ongoing racial unrest on campus, Missouri’s black players say they will not participate in any football activities until university president Tim Wolfe resigns or is removed from his position.

Source: Missouri players sit out in protest amid racial unrest.

 

Navy rolled past Memphis to give the Tigers their first loss.

name of site - hunter thompson styleMemphis’ undefeated dream is over, as the No. 13 Tigers were trampled by Navy’s option attack 45-20 on Saturday night in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. With the win, Navy has inserted itself into the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Source: Navy rolled past Memphis to give the Tigers their first loss.

 

Florida wins ugly vs. Vandy, wraps up SEC East title.

name of site - hunter thompson styleFlorida seemed to be underrated when the selection committee ranked it No. 10 in its first College Football Playoff top 25, but maybe the committee was on to something, as the Gators just barely escaped with a 9-7 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Source: Florida wins ugly vs. Vandy, wraps up SEC East title.

 

Time to take North Carolina seriously in ACC title race.

name of site - hunter thompson styleNorth Carolina was the only one-loss Power Five team not in the selection committee’s first top 25, but that’s going to change. The Tar Heels dominated rival Duke 66-31, taking control of the ACC Coastal with an onslaught of big plays.

Source: Time to take North Carolina seriously in ACC title race.

 

Clemson pulls aways from FSU to stay undefeated.

name of site - hunter thompson styleDeshaun Watson and a stifling defensive effort powered top-ranked Clemson to a 23-13 win over No. 16 Florida State on Saturday in Death Valley. With the win, Clemson booked its first appearance in the ACC Championship Game since 2011.

Source: Clemson pulls aways from FSU to stay undefeated.

 

Arkansas beats Ole Miss after fourth-down miracle.

name of site - hunter thompson styleArkansas won an overtime thriller 53-52 at No. 18 Ole Miss, pulling off yet another of the most improbable plays you will ever see in a season full of them, with a miracle fourth-and-25 conversion followed by a TD and two-pointer for the victory.

Source: Arkansas beats Ole Miss after fourth-down miracle.