Teaching You How to #Win – Matchups to Exploit/Top Over-Under/Heavy Favorites #NFL Week 9

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • New England -15 over Washington
  • Cincinnati -12.5 over the Browns
  • New Orleans -9.5 over the Titans

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots yet again lead the heavy favorites segment for this weeks’ Thursday post! Paul Brown Stadium_headshots_originalThey come in red hot, after blowing out what appeared to be a hot Dolphins team and now they get Washington and Kirk Cousins. Washington is coming in off of a bye and one of the best comebacks in their long history. I would take the points in this one as Brady is just red hot and I have zero faith in the Washington offense, even if DeSean Jackson actually plays in this contest. Moving on, we have the Bengals over the Browns by 12.5 points tonight. I am taking the Bengals, giving the points and actually taking the over as well in this one. This shouldn’t even be close but I do expect Barnidge to continue his TD streak and I do believe that you will have a Travis Benjamin siting for one long bomb. I have Bengals crushing however, 37 – 17 with the Bengals having 6 sacks and a touchdown on defense. Last we have the Saints as a 9.5 favorite at home over the lowly Titans. The Titans have just fired their coach and we still aren’t certain if Mariota is going to play in this one. If Mettenberger plays, one thing is for certain, he will throw at least one INT. The reason for that is because he has done it in every game in which he has started and the top defense for the week has played against him in 3 of 8 starts. Does this mean you should take the Saints D….maybe, come back on Sunday to get my final selections.

Top Players To Consider based on these matchups:

  • Tom Brady
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Drew Brees
  • Jeremy Hill
  • Cincinnati Defense

Top Overall Game Over/Under

I might have to change up this section if the Patriots continue to have this locked down and week 9 is no different. This week the over/under for the Patriots and Washington is 52 points. I think this is even low considering that Washington should put up 20 points but I believe the Patriots will produce over 40 points in this game at home. Washington will have no answer for Gronk this weekend and Brady will figure out another WR to hit for big chunks of yardage all game long. Want a sleeper and do I mean sleeper, try out LaFell this weekend. He will get over 9 targets in this game so its just a matter of, can he catch it? I don’t know the answer to that but I wouldn’t be surprised to see LaFell go over 100 yards and a touchdown. Considering the fact that his salary on DraftKings is only $3,200 so think about it but this is very high risk.

Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is Oakland  projected to give up 317.49
  • Rushing Yards is Chicago projected to give up 133.77
  • Overall Yards is Tampa Bay projected to give up 420.69

Last week as a late start on Sunday morning, I gave you Drew Brees and all he did was get you 47 fantasy points on FanDuel and over 50 on DraftKings. DiRTCanon A.I.This was based on this matchup information so you should be considering this data set each week as there are some golden gems in there. In terms of players to consider, based on week 9 projections, we have Antonio Brown against the Raiders. With Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup, we know one thing and that is that Antonio Brown is going to get at least 10 targets. The Steelers are in need of a win and Oakland is pretty hot coming in this week. Look for a fairly high scoring contest. As for the Bears run defense, I’m not on a San Diego back all that much but if you wanted to take one it would be Woodhead. He has been the only consistent player, outside of Rivers this season and with the Chargers banged up all over the place, look for a 20+ point performance from Woodhead. Last we have the Tampa Bay Buccs projected to give up the most yards this weekend. Do I really think that Eli could outperform what he accomplished last week, NO! Does that mean I wouldn’t take him this week, that answer is also NO. I like the matchup and the Buccs have given up 397 passing yards or more in each of their last 3 games with one of those being against Kirk Cousins.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!

Here is Thursday stack to consider for DraftKings if you are going to include tonight’s game:ThursdayNightStack

  • This lineup averages 154.6
  • This lineup is projected to score 133.1
  • The needed score to cash in the $5 Thur Kickoff has averaged 132.6
  • The confidence rating for this lineup is 54.7%
  • I predict this lineup will have over 150 points after tonight’s game

We want to hear from you, take our poll below and if you want different information or just want to speak to one of our experts about certain players or lineup considerations, just contact us here or DM us on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram.

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